Its clear that this summers consumption has done little to reduce available oil . The US is importing oil at record amounts... Not to use, but to store. Storage and pipeline services are booming. There are massive physical hedges going on oil , this requires longterm capital. Not something to store oil in just out behind the barn. This storage needs utilization for years... Not just a few quarters. Our target still remains WTI @ 38 by the end of the year.
We have now seen oil leave the only active .. I had not expected it to drop outside of the latest micro channel (after drop to 45.5). I do not anticipate a newer, steeper micro channel to form... but will watch for it.
More likely it will increase in until the (no change) opec meeting is over on 27th. Until then lots of opportunities for day traders as long as they go with Trend & Fundamentals.
Out swing-trade timeline lets us go outside .. But we will add to our shorts on spikes when they warrant. For now we are holding short.
No Monday rant (cuz it's Tues)on how so many people look to oil with western eyes..
We remain short on oil. As long as oil renaissance stays in a trading range that keeps SA on sidelines we expect the decline to continue. Be Safe.
Target.. 38 by end of year. (Looks like late October)
So to catchup, the below are a few of the working charts I'm using to work this trade.
Here is the storm report updated... it could get crazy in ranges.
It's spooky how this has tracked.. but it's important we close above 44 today, 45 would be better... the point is we do not want a change in production...
Of course we remain safe. Be safe... as we have been saying.. and saying... expect big swings.
We see little chance of oil breaking through these 1, 2, & 3 year trend lines. Oil continues to fail at any significant up channel, and i don't see current inventories or production changing that.... Be safe.
We are now max short!
Ok, this is the day/price we have been calling for sense we published the Storm charts above. We are getting failed attemps to break into last weeks macro up channel.. If it gets too bullish just before OPEC meeting ends and EIA is bullish, itcould go to 46 or 46.25. But that would be sold off quickly. If we were not max short, i would add shorts above 46. If it get there... My guess is 45 at close of EU markets.. Below that at close of US.
Expect big swings... Be safe.