The following data are meant to help guide the decision as to when to buy/go long on the short term and midterm VIX related etfs/etfs. The VIX daily minimum and closing prices were downloaded from the CBOE website. The % of days with daily minimums and daily closing prices were then analyzed from May 23, 2014 to August 5, 2016.
The time from May 23, 2014 to July 24, 2014 (43 trading days) was identified as a market run withe the VIX closing < 11.5 on May 23, 2014.
May 23, 2014 VIX closes at 11.36
July 24, 2014 ( S&P 500 Daily Cycle Top) at 1988.
July 24, 2014 VIX closes at 11.84
From May 23, 2014 to July 24, 2014 (43 trading days):
The VIX close was < 10.0 zero days (0 %).
The VIX close was < 10.5 one day (2.3 %).
The VIX close was < 11.0 nine days (20.9 %).
The VIX close was < 11.5 fifteen days (34.9 %).
The VIX close was < 12.0 thirty one days (72.1 %).
The minimum VIX close was .
The VIX low was < 10.0 zero days (0 %).
The VIX low was < 10.5 three days (7.0 %).
The VIX low was < 11.0 thirteen days (30.2 %).
The VIX low was < 11.5 thirty one days (72.1 %).
The VIX low was < 12.0 thirty seven days (86.0 %).
The lowest VIX was .10.26.
The VIX closed below 11.5 until August 22, 2016
After that, the VIX did not close below 11.5 until August 5, 2016
For traders interested in going long on the VIX rtfs and tens, positions may be opened when when the VIX is < 11.5 and especially when VIX is < 11.0 and < 10.5. For the midterm VIXM and VXY, a cost averaging strategy could be considered. I added to my VIXM position on 8/4/2014 and added UVXY calls on 8/4/2016.