timwest
Long

Silver during spikes in VIX - buy signal setup now

FX:XAGUSD   Silver/U.S. Dollar
2023 23 57
a year ago
If silver             spikes UP when VIX             surges, then the silver             market tends to peak, but if silver             DROPS when VIX             surges, it tends to market the BOTTOM for silver             .

We have a potential bottom here using this analogue.

I'm not a 200 bar moving average aficionado, but it touched that long term level in this pullback.


You can see that there was Key Accumulation from $12.50-$13.50 in silver             because there are 19-20 months at those levels, which is a SUBSTANTIAL amount of time before the launch higher to $50/ounce seen in 2011.

If we stop out just under that level, then we put the odds in our favor with a nearly $10 upside potential to the "least traded level in Silver" at $25, up from the highest traded level in silver             at the $13 level.
2 months ago
Comment: So far, it's been a great odds trade for silver on the long side:

Silver rallied to $21.11 from $14.50 (nearly $7 or a 50% rally, while only dropping to $13.5, $1 or 8%, I like how this trade has gone... nearly 6:1 upside versus downside so far.

Since peaked and now settling back recently to $17.08 low, we can take another look and try to figure out if we can press our long position here or decide to walk away from this trade. Here's what I see now: $VIX spikes correspond to higher and higher levels in Silver, which alerts me that silver is accumulated and ready to rally. When Silver was in a bear market, it would fall to lower levels on each spike. That is a sign of a broken market, or a downtrend.

Stay tuned.
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timwest PRO
a year ago
I needed to label that 2001 spike as a top - since VIX spiked up during that spike up in VIX
+1 Reply
Great!
Maybe the not highest high top is a truncated 5th of some kind. (Glenn Neely's Gold count has one I think)
I posted an SLV long idea, I had an entry from 13.91 but closed in profit. Might have to find a second entry.
+1 Reply
ChimbOt PRO
a year ago
I have watching silver closely, i believe the same.
Long time , Ivan
Reply
DJC
a year ago
Thank you for the chart. How closely does silver correlate to gold, if at all?
Reply
ChimbOt PRO DJC
a year ago
Look at xag/xau
+1 Reply
LastBattle DJC
a year ago
snapshot


rising wedge...
+3 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO LastBattle
a year ago
Nice find.
Reply
timwest PRO DJC
2 months ago
Have you traded the ratio in the last year? The ratio is equivalent in risk to the stock market most of the time. Silver is 3 times more volatile than gold in percentage terms. If you plot the percentage trading range on a daily basis, you can track this volatility ratio. If you can trade futures, you can get the most leverage to put the ratio trade on. To make the risk equal, you need less silver than gold on either side of the trade.
+1 Reply
Justiceisfalse
a year ago
Will take a look and do some homework.
COT will be integral me thinks.
Thanks for the idea.
Reply
LastBattle
a year ago
Silver is absolutely underpriced at these levels, way below the production cost for many mining firms unless they're digging it up as a by-product of gold.
It will be good to take this opportunity to accumulate physical silver for the long term too!
+2 Reply
keshavreddi
a year ago
What silver ETFs should I buy instead of physical silver.
Reply
ChimbOt PRO keshavreddi
a year ago
i like EXK but its not an ETF
Reply
keshavreddi ChimbOt
a year ago
Thanks
Reply
LastBattle keshavreddi
a year ago
SLV USLV DSLV DBS
Alternatively, if you're bullish in precious metal you could buy mining companies directly that focus on silver...
+1 Reply
keshavreddi LastBattle
a year ago
Thanks
Reply
I entered a pair trade, short gold, long silver off this level, stop at the monthly mode (13.25).
Gold, stop at 1171.89. Aiming for a low retest in gold at least.
Reply
moneymaking
a year ago
Great analysis Tim, keep up the good work. All the BEST :)
+2 Reply
mr.cable
2 months ago
can you tell me what do you think about gold ????
Reply
timwest PRO mr.cable
2 months ago
Thanks for asking. I'll get to work on it.
Reply
BuySellBuySell
2 months ago
Nice one!
Reply
Tim- today the vix is up 6% and silver is up 1%. Would you consider this as meeting the criteria listed for a top?
Reply
charle5035 PRO charle5035
a month ago
I should also note that gold seems to be finding some solid support and has a lower probability of breaking under 1270. Since gold & silver move contrary to each other in bear markets & corrections, would it be out of the question to guess that we have an increased probability of bearish action this earnings season?
Reply
timwest PRO charle5035
a month ago
Great question! Let me review and get back to you. Or PM me if I get distracted and don't get back to you.
Reply
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