timwest
Long

Silver during spikes in VIX - buy signal setup now

FX:XAGUSD   Silver/U.S. Dollar
2064 23 57
If silver             spikes UP when VIX             surges, then the silver             market tends to peak, but if silver             DROPS when VIX             surges, it tends to market the BOTTOM for silver             .

We have a potential bottom here using this analogue.

I'm not a 200 bar moving average aficionado, but it touched that long term level in this pullback.


You can see that there was Key Accumulation from $12.50-$13.50 in silver             because there are 19-20 months at those levels, which is a SUBSTANTIAL amount of time before the launch higher to $50/ounce seen in 2011.

If we stop out just under that level, then we put the odds in our favor with a nearly $10 upside potential to the "least traded level in Silver" at $25, up from the highest traded level in silver             at the $13 level.
Comment: So far, it's been a great odds trade for silver on the long side:

Silver rallied to $21.11 from $14.50 (nearly $7 or a 50% rally, while only dropping to $13.5, $1 or 8%, I like how this trade has gone... nearly 6:1 upside versus downside so far.

Since peaked and now settling back recently to $17.08 low, we can take another look and try to figure out if we can press our long position here or decide to walk away from this trade. Here's what I see now: $VIX spikes correspond to higher and higher levels in Silver, which alerts me that silver is accumulated and ready to rally. When Silver was in a bear market, it would fall to lower levels on each spike. That is a sign of a broken market, or a downtrend.

Stay tuned.
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Tim- today the vix is up 6% and silver is up 1%. Would you consider this as meeting the criteria listed for a top?
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charle5035 PRO charle5035
I should also note that gold seems to be finding some solid support and has a lower probability of breaking under 1270. Since gold & silver move contrary to each other in bear markets & corrections, would it be out of the question to guess that we have an increased probability of bearish action this earnings season?
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timwest PRO charle5035
Great question! Let me review and get back to you. Or PM me if I get distracted and don't get back to you.
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Nice one!
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can you tell me what do you think about gold ????
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timwest PRO mr.cable
Thanks for asking. I'll get to work on it.
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Great analysis Tim, keep up the good work. All the BEST :)
+2 Reply
I entered a pair trade, short gold, long silver off this level, stop at the monthly mode (13.25).
Gold, stop at 1171.89. Aiming for a low retest in gold at least.
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What silver ETFs should I buy instead of physical silver.
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ChimbOt PRO keshavreddi
i like EXK but its not an ETF
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