pantheo

Silver: Anything can happen

FX:XAGUSD   Silver/U.S. Dollar
The title by itself is indicative of any possible trade, but it's more of an opinion than a trade opportunity, as probabilities here on an R/R basis, are not the best, which should be our only criteria.

As you can see in the attachments I was very positive and enter full long precious metal (jacked?) positions, on spot, futures , stocks and bullion more than two months ago. The reasoning behind is fully explained there, I believe.

So, what's changed then since this?
http://stocktwits.com/pantheo/message/23952716

Lots of technicals, overextended, negative reverse divergence, supply zone, trendlines and I'm sure that you are far better than me finding many others as well.

The attitude of big traders as you can see in latest COT's its not the typical early stage uptrend we have seen in the past, rather I would say the big bar of June 19th looks like the product of short covering. Also this kind of positioning has signalled a pause in the past and not a continuation. Very quickly to extremes.
http://nowandfutures.com/images/cot/SI.png

The are still large amounts of positions in put options at $18 and $16 at CME             . Of course this is the fuel that will push the price to increase if their stop losses getting hit.
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/silver_quotes_settlements_options.html?optionProductId=193#optionProductId=193

Daily current pattern looks like what Bulkowski calls a "Flag tilt", while on the weekly price is at kumo resistance.
http://thepatternsite.com/flags.html

Couple of newsletters I read in their free weekly/monthly edition calls for the mega bull , not always a good factor to include in your trades. More often than not, it pays to do exactly the opposite, it depends on the writer

Sentiment readings regarding public opinion in silver             hit the 65 mark, an area associated with tops in the past and not early uptrends.

Last but not least we have the seasonality factor, like last year in a box to the left of the chart.

All this together at the same time with everyone I know waiting for a lower high to be established, in order to long the sector.

Anything can happen. I passed thankfully the stage of the "what if" trades and I can happily live with trades that I didn't enter if they don't fit my risk management or R/R criteria. Markets will be there for ever doing their thing. I want to feel the same for my accounts.

All the best guys

P.


CONTROL WHAT YOU CAN
Thanks for the useful information.
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pantheo PRO Technician
2 years ago
Thank you, very kind! The least I can do, after you and other mods doing so much for the community here. My very best to you and your people. P.
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Technician TOP pantheo
2 years ago
:) . Keep up the great work
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