XAG / USD – HTF JOURNAL - WEEKLY SERIES
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In the following analysis, I do NOT highlight any specific scenario but neutrally look at the higher timeframes in the >
XAGUSD
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MARKED POINTS OF INTENTION (POI)
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| This way, I generate a SERIES for you, where you, as a reader, can - ACTIVELY - learn from the analyses, decisions, & interactions |
In the following analysis, I do NOT highlight any specific scenario but neutrally look at the higher timeframes in the >
XAGUSD
< - We focus on the technical KEY points and KEY areas that will be relevant in the coming weeks & months.
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MARKED POINTS OF INTENTION (POI)
- The price is below the mid-trend line of the oldest and most influential trend channel, which originated in 1971.
- Additionally, we are at the upper resistance line of a slightly younger trend channel, which formed in 2011 and has served as resistance since 2020.
- The "Higher High" of 2008 will serve as our next support, as well as the zone formed around it (21,355 - 22,000).
- In our recent trend channel, another subordinate trend channel has emerged, which is currently contested.
- Momentum indicators in the weekly TFs show declining momentum, which is additionally noted in the daily TFs.
- The daily "moving averages" have all broken through the 200s and are now serving as resistance.
Z- You have to understand the big picture to not drown in the noise of the small one -Z
| ZielIstDieAutarkie |
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Thank you and happy trading!Z
Comment:
WEEKS - CLOSING PRICE = BEARISH
> The candle did not form a highlighting formation
> The "CLOSING PRICE" occurred below the last "Market Structure Break (MSB)", which is now serving as support.
> The price broke back into the MTF trend channel, which has been strongly contested for 4 months.
> Additional resistance is provided by a Parallel Trendline, which is located in the overarching HTF downtrend channel (Turquoise) and has generated several reactions in the past.
> As a strong support, the "Higher High" of 2008 (21,355), will come into play and will most likely trigger a Significant Reaction.
The following "FIBONACCI LEVEL" of the downward movement is still pending to be worked off:
= 0.618 - 0.65 (22.08519 - 21.89347 USD)
= 0.75 - 0.786 (21.305 - 21.09704 USD)
> The "SUPPLY - ZONE" above it continues to serve as resistance.
> The "DEMAND - ZONE" below it continues to serve as support.
> The MA (50, 100, 200) - serve as support.
> The MA (5, 8, 20) - serve as resistance.
> The MACD indicator confirms falling momentum.
> The RSI indicator confirms falling momentum and broke through the 50% midline = Neutral territory.
1 WEEK = 1 DAY x Five (Price Action)
OVERVIEW
> The candle did not form a highlighting formation
> The "CLOSING PRICE" occurred below the last "Market Structure Break (MSB)", which is now serving as support.
> The price broke back into the MTF trend channel, which has been strongly contested for 4 months.
> Additional resistance is provided by a Parallel Trendline, which is located in the overarching HTF downtrend channel (Turquoise) and has generated several reactions in the past.
> As a strong support, the "Higher High" of 2008 (21,355), will come into play and will most likely trigger a Significant Reaction.
The following "FIBONACCI LEVEL" of the downward movement is still pending to be worked off:
= 0.618 - 0.65 (22.08519 - 21.89347 USD)
= 0.75 - 0.786 (21.305 - 21.09704 USD)
> The "SUPPLY - ZONE" above it continues to serve as resistance.
> The "DEMAND - ZONE" below it continues to serve as support.
> The MA (50, 100, 200) - serve as support.
> The MA (5, 8, 20) - serve as resistance.
> The MACD indicator confirms falling momentum.
> The RSI indicator confirms falling momentum and broke through the 50% midline = Neutral territory.
1 WEEK = 1 DAY x Five (Price Action)
OVERVIEW
Comment:
WEEKS - CLOSING PRICE = UNDECIDED
> The candle formed a "DOJI"
= this indicates indecision and needs another candle to close.
> The "CLOSE" occurred in the HTF downtrend channel (turquoise), whose upper trendline could be confirmed or recaptured as resistance this week.
> Additional resistance is experienced by the uptrend channel parallel line (turquoise), which was breached and confirmed in the ITD.
> The next HTF resistance is the lower downtrend channel center line, which is very likely to prove itself this week.
SUPPORTS
- FIB | HTF = 0.618 + 0.65 (22.08519 - 21.89347)
- MA | 50; 100; 200 (22.40 - 22.70)
- POI | 22.00000
- MSB | MTF = HH/08 (21.355)
RESISTANCES
- FIB | HTF = 0.618 + 0.65 (24.06965 - 24.15869)
- MA | 5; 8; 20 (23.34 - 23.96)
- POI | 24.25000
INDICATORS
- The MACD indicator continues to show bearish momentum, although this may change due to the DOJI.
- The RSI indicator is in front of the 50% line, showing an attempt to turn the momentum.
1 WEEK = 1 DAY x Five (Price Action)
(FIB = Fibonacci | MA = Moving Average | POI = Point of Interest | MSB = Market Structure Break)
> The candle formed a "DOJI"
= this indicates indecision and needs another candle to close.
> The "CLOSE" occurred in the HTF downtrend channel (turquoise), whose upper trendline could be confirmed or recaptured as resistance this week.
> Additional resistance is experienced by the uptrend channel parallel line (turquoise), which was breached and confirmed in the ITD.
> The next HTF resistance is the lower downtrend channel center line, which is very likely to prove itself this week.
SUPPORTS
- FIB | HTF = 0.618 + 0.65 (22.08519 - 21.89347)
- MA | 50; 100; 200 (22.40 - 22.70)
- POI | 22.00000
- MSB | MTF = HH/08 (21.355)
RESISTANCES
- FIB | HTF = 0.618 + 0.65 (24.06965 - 24.15869)
- MA | 5; 8; 20 (23.34 - 23.96)
- POI | 24.25000
INDICATORS
- The MACD indicator continues to show bearish momentum, although this may change due to the DOJI.
- The RSI indicator is in front of the 50% line, showing an attempt to turn the momentum.
1 WEEK = 1 DAY x Five (Price Action)
(FIB = Fibonacci | MA = Moving Average | POI = Point of Interest | MSB = Market Structure Break)
Comment:
WEEK - CLOSING PRICE = BULLISH
> The candle did not form a formation to be highlighted
> The "CLOSING COURSE" occurred in the HTF downtrend channel (turquoise), whose upper trendline could be confirmed or recaptured as resistance this week.
> Additional resistance is experienced from the uptrend channel parallel line (turquoise), which was breached and confirmed in the ITD.
> The next HTF resistance is the lower downtrend channel center line, which is very likely to prove itself this week.
SUPPORTS
- FIB | HTF = 0.618 + 0.65 (22.08519 - 21.89347) | MTF = 0.328 + 0.786 (23.65415 - 22.67014)
- MA | 5; 8; 20; 50; 100; 200
- POI | 23.328
- MSB | MTF = HH/08 (21.355) & HL/23 (22.11245)
RESISTANCES
- FIB | HTF = 0.75 + 0.88 (24.47085 - 24.88269)
- POI | 24.25000
INDICATORS
- The MACD indicator shows falling bearish momentum and is preparing for a possible bullish cross.
- The RSI indicator has broken the 50% line and confirms the incoming momentum.
1 WEEK = 1 DAY x Five (Price Action)
(FIB = Fibonacci | MA = Moving Average | POI = Point of Interest | MSB = Market Structure Break)
> The candle did not form a formation to be highlighted
> The "CLOSING COURSE" occurred in the HTF downtrend channel (turquoise), whose upper trendline could be confirmed or recaptured as resistance this week.
> Additional resistance is experienced from the uptrend channel parallel line (turquoise), which was breached and confirmed in the ITD.
> The next HTF resistance is the lower downtrend channel center line, which is very likely to prove itself this week.
SUPPORTS
- FIB | HTF = 0.618 + 0.65 (22.08519 - 21.89347) | MTF = 0.328 + 0.786 (23.65415 - 22.67014)
- MA | 5; 8; 20; 50; 100; 200
- POI | 23.328
- MSB | MTF = HH/08 (21.355) & HL/23 (22.11245)
RESISTANCES
- FIB | HTF = 0.75 + 0.88 (24.47085 - 24.88269)
- POI | 24.25000
INDICATORS
- The MACD indicator shows falling bearish momentum and is preparing for a possible bullish cross.
- The RSI indicator has broken the 50% line and confirms the incoming momentum.
1 WEEK = 1 DAY x Five (Price Action)
(FIB = Fibonacci | MA = Moving Average | POI = Point of Interest | MSB = Market Structure Break)
Comment:
WEEKS - CLOSING PRICE = BEARISH
> The candle formed a "SHOOTING STAR"
= this indicates a possible trend reversal and requires another candle close.
> The "CLOSE" occurred in the HTF downtrend channel (turquoise), whose upper trendline could be confirmed or recaptured as resistance this week.
> Additional resistance is experienced by the uptrend channel parallel line (turquoise), which was breached and confirmed in the ITD.
> The next HTF resistance is the lower downtrend channel center line, which is very likely to prove itself this week.
SUPPORTS
- FIB | ITD = 0.328 - 0.88 (24.06278 - 22.54214)
- MA | 5; 8; 20 (23.95188 - 23.49903) & 50; 100; 200 (22.45855 - 22.84001)
- POI | 23.328
- MSB | MTF = HH/08 (21.355) & HL/23 (22.11245)
RESISTANCE
- FIB | HTF = 0.75 + 0.88 (24.47085 - 24.88269)
- POI | 24.70 & 25.00 & 25.15300
INDICATORS
- The MACD indicator shows falling bearish momentum and is preparing for a possible bullish cross.
- The RSI indicator has broken the 50% line and confirms the incoming momentum.
1 WEEK = 1 DAY x Five (Price Action)
(FIB = Fibonacci | MA = Moving Average | POI = Point of Interest | MSB = Market Structure Break)
> The candle formed a "SHOOTING STAR"
= this indicates a possible trend reversal and requires another candle close.
> The "CLOSE" occurred in the HTF downtrend channel (turquoise), whose upper trendline could be confirmed or recaptured as resistance this week.
> Additional resistance is experienced by the uptrend channel parallel line (turquoise), which was breached and confirmed in the ITD.
> The next HTF resistance is the lower downtrend channel center line, which is very likely to prove itself this week.
SUPPORTS
- FIB | ITD = 0.328 - 0.88 (24.06278 - 22.54214)
- MA | 5; 8; 20 (23.95188 - 23.49903) & 50; 100; 200 (22.45855 - 22.84001)
- POI | 23.328
- MSB | MTF = HH/08 (21.355) & HL/23 (22.11245)
RESISTANCE
- FIB | HTF = 0.75 + 0.88 (24.47085 - 24.88269)
- POI | 24.70 & 25.00 & 25.15300
INDICATORS
- The MACD indicator shows falling bearish momentum and is preparing for a possible bullish cross.
- The RSI indicator has broken the 50% line and confirms the incoming momentum.
1 WEEK = 1 DAY x Five (Price Action)
(FIB = Fibonacci | MA = Moving Average | POI = Point of Interest | MSB = Market Structure Break)
Comment:
MONTH - CLOSING PRICE = BEARISH
> The candle did not form a highlighting formation
= note that the shadow is extremely long, suggesting strong demand.
> The candle confirmed the HTF downtrend channel as support and is currently on the path of retesting it.
> The parallel HTF uptrend channel trendline (turquoise) was recaptured in the weekly action and will serve as support until the next candle close.
> Despite the very strong down-sale in the weekly action, a higher low was achieved, which could indicate an uptrend continuation.
1 MONTH = 1 WEEK x Four (Price Action)
> The candle did not form a highlighting formation
= note that the shadow is extremely long, suggesting strong demand.
> The candle confirmed the HTF downtrend channel as support and is currently on the path of retesting it.
> The parallel HTF uptrend channel trendline (turquoise) was recaptured in the weekly action and will serve as support until the next candle close.
> Despite the very strong down-sale in the weekly action, a higher low was achieved, which could indicate an uptrend continuation.
1 MONTH = 1 WEEK x Four (Price Action)
Comment:
WEEKS - CLOSING PRICE = BULLISH
> The candle formed a "DOJI"
= this indicates indecision and needs another candle close.
> The "CLOSE" occurred in the HTF downtrend channel (turquoise), whose upper trendline could be confirmed or recaptured as resistance this week.
> Additional resistance is experienced from the downtrend channel parallel line (White), which was confirmed as resistance.
> The daily candle was a "Bullish Engulfing" pattern, which could also initiate the bottom for*the time being. (However, this should be taken with a grain of salt - Many resistances have been confirmed and need to be broken beforehand).
SUPPORTS
- The prominent supports can be seen in the following chart image.
- If there are any questions regarding this, please ask them in the comments.
RESISTANCES
- The prominent resistances can be seen in the following chart image.
- If there are any questions regarding this, please ask them in the comments.
INDICATORS
> The MACD indicator shows falling bearish momentum and indicates its continuation.
> The RSI indicator is at the 50% line, indicating a neutral zone.
1 WEEK = 1 DAY x Five (Price Action)
(FIB = Fibonacci | MA = Moving Average | POI = Point of Interest | MSB = Market Structure Break)
> The candle formed a "DOJI"
= this indicates indecision and needs another candle close.
> The "CLOSE" occurred in the HTF downtrend channel (turquoise), whose upper trendline could be confirmed or recaptured as resistance this week.
> Additional resistance is experienced from the downtrend channel parallel line (White), which was confirmed as resistance.
> The daily candle was a "Bullish Engulfing" pattern, which could also initiate the bottom for*the time being. (However, this should be taken with a grain of salt - Many resistances have been confirmed and need to be broken beforehand).
SUPPORTS
- The prominent supports can be seen in the following chart image.
- If there are any questions regarding this, please ask them in the comments.
RESISTANCES
- The prominent resistances can be seen in the following chart image.
- If there are any questions regarding this, please ask them in the comments.
INDICATORS
> The MACD indicator shows falling bearish momentum and indicates its continuation.
> The RSI indicator is at the 50% line, indicating a neutral zone.
1 WEEK = 1 DAY x Five (Price Action)
(FIB = Fibonacci | MA = Moving Average | POI = Point of Interest | MSB = Market Structure Break)
2-WEEK - INTERVAL
1-WEEK - INTERVAL
1-DAY - INTERVAL