SPX / USD – HTF JOURNAL - WEEKLY SERIES
This is an ACTIVELY managed BLOG CONTRIBUTION, which will be UPDATED WEEKLY with comments and trade ideas.
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In the following analysis, I do NOT highlight any specific scenario but neutrally look at the higher timeframes in the >
SPX500USD
<
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MARKED POINTS OF INTENTION (POI)
If this idea and explanation have added value to you, I would appreciate a COMMENT or BOOST very much.
| This way, I generate a SERIES for you, where you, as a reader, can - ACTIVELY - learn from the analyses, decisions, & interactions |
In the following analysis, I do NOT highlight any specific scenario but neutrally look at the higher timeframes in the >
SPX500USD
< - We focus on the technical KEY points and KEY areas that will be relevant in the coming weeks & months.
- As soon as candlestick closes emerge that suggest a temporary direction for the price intra-day, I create a separate post below.
- This post will be under a similar name, which is as follows: "SPX / USD - JOURNAL - ACTIVE SERIES" (Includes: entries, stop loss & take profit levels)
- Once published, it will be added as a comment, and when this post is saved, you will receive a notification about it.
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MARKED POINTS OF INTENTION (POI)
- The all-time high of 2022, is only 4.56% away from the current top, which is scary in terms of the economic situation.
- The overvaluation of stocks has reached a point where the fall will result in a hard landing.
- The institutions and central banks know this and are currently delaying disaster.
- From a technical perspective, we are below / at the mid-trend line of the overarching uptrend channel.
- From a subordinate perspective, the price has broken out of a recent trend channel and has not had enough momentum on the reconfirmation.
- Momentum indicators in the weekly TFs and higher are not meaningful; however, a small bearish divergence can be seen in the daily TFs.
- There are a lot of support areas standing in the way of a serious sell-off, which would have to be broken first - both scenarios are thus not to be ruled out | LONG / SHORT.
Z- You have to understand the big picture to not drown in the noise of the small one -Z
| ZielIstDieAutarkie |
If this idea and explanation have added value to you, I would appreciate a COMMENT or BOOST very much.
Thank you and happy trading!Z
Comment:
WEEKS - CLOSING PRICE = BEARISH
> The candle formed a "DOJI"
= this indicates indecision and needs another candle close.
> The "CLOSE" occurred below the last "Market Structure Break (MSB)" which now serves as support.
> The re-break into the MTF trend channel, was confirmed via this weeks close.
> The MTF trend channel midline, continues to serve as a resistance stad and achieved several reactions in the past.
> Additional support is provided by a Parallel Trendline, which is located in the overarching HTF downtrend channel (Turquoise) and generated several reactions in the past.
The following "FIBONACCI-LEVEL" of the downward movement is still pending processing:
= 0.75 - 0.786 (4435.7 - 4427.5 USD)
= 0.328 (4416.3 USD)
= 0.88 (4406.2 USD)
> The "SUPPLY - ZONE" above it continues to serve as resistance.
> The MA (20, 50, 100, 200) - serve as support.
> The MA (5 = 4508 USD, 8 = 4488 USD) - serve as resistance.
> The MACD indicator confirms falling momentum and is close to a bearish cross.
> The RSI indicator confirms falling momentum is always near the 50% = Neutral territory.
1 WEEK = 1 DAY x Five (Price Action)
OVERVIEW
> The candle formed a "DOJI"
= this indicates indecision and needs another candle close.
> The "CLOSE" occurred below the last "Market Structure Break (MSB)" which now serves as support.
> The re-break into the MTF trend channel, was confirmed via this weeks close.
> The MTF trend channel midline, continues to serve as a resistance stad and achieved several reactions in the past.
> Additional support is provided by a Parallel Trendline, which is located in the overarching HTF downtrend channel (Turquoise) and generated several reactions in the past.
The following "FIBONACCI-LEVEL" of the downward movement is still pending processing:
= 0.75 - 0.786 (4435.7 - 4427.5 USD)
= 0.328 (4416.3 USD)
= 0.88 (4406.2 USD)
> The "SUPPLY - ZONE" above it continues to serve as resistance.
> The MA (20, 50, 100, 200) - serve as support.
> The MA (5 = 4508 USD, 8 = 4488 USD) - serve as resistance.
> The MACD indicator confirms falling momentum and is close to a bearish cross.
> The RSI indicator confirms falling momentum is always near the 50% = Neutral territory.
1 WEEK = 1 DAY x Five (Price Action)
OVERVIEW
Comment:
WEEKS - CLOSING PRICE = BEARISH
> The candle did not form a formation worth highlighting
= it should be noted that the subordinate market structure was broken - which allows further room to fall.
> The "CLOSING COURSE" occurred in the HTF sideways trend channel, whose upper trendline was confirmed as resistance last week.
> We are experiencing additional resistance from the uptrend channel parallel line (turquoise), which was breached and confirmed in the ITD.
> The next HTF support is the uptrend channel center line, which is very likely to prove itself this week.
SUPPORTS
- FIB | HTF = 0.328 (4329.40) | 0.618 + 0.65 (4234.10 - 4251.90)
- MA | 20; 100 (4320.00 & 4200.00)
- POI | 4325.00 & 4200.00
- MSB | MTF = LH/23 (4325.2)
RESISTANCES
- FIB | HTF = 0.328 (4443.60)
- MA | 5; 8 (4475.00)
- MSB | MTF = HH/23 (4463.4)
INDICATORS
- The MACD indicator is close to a bearish cross, which indicates the beginning of negative momentum.
- The RSI indicator has crossed below the 50% line, showing very incipient bearish momentum.
1 WEEK = 1 DAY x Five (Price Action)
(FIB = Fibonacci | MA = Moving Average | POI = Point of Interest | MSB = Market Structure Break)
> The candle did not form a formation worth highlighting
= it should be noted that the subordinate market structure was broken - which allows further room to fall.
> The "CLOSING COURSE" occurred in the HTF sideways trend channel, whose upper trendline was confirmed as resistance last week.
> We are experiencing additional resistance from the uptrend channel parallel line (turquoise), which was breached and confirmed in the ITD.
> The next HTF support is the uptrend channel center line, which is very likely to prove itself this week.
SUPPORTS
- FIB | HTF = 0.328 (4329.40) | 0.618 + 0.65 (4234.10 - 4251.90)
- MA | 20; 100 (4320.00 & 4200.00)
- POI | 4325.00 & 4200.00
- MSB | MTF = LH/23 (4325.2)
RESISTANCES
- FIB | HTF = 0.328 (4443.60)
- MA | 5; 8 (4475.00)
- MSB | MTF = HH/23 (4463.4)
INDICATORS
- The MACD indicator is close to a bearish cross, which indicates the beginning of negative momentum.
- The RSI indicator has crossed below the 50% line, showing very incipient bearish momentum.
1 WEEK = 1 DAY x Five (Price Action)
(FIB = Fibonacci | MA = Moving Average | POI = Point of Interest | MSB = Market Structure Break)
Comment:
WEEKS - CLOSING PRICE = BEARISH
> The candle did not form a formation to be highlighted
= note that the wick of the candle has a greater length than the shadow cast by the candle.
> The "CLOSING COURSE" occurred in the HTF sideways trend channel, whose centerline still leaves further correction potential open.
> We experience additional resistance from the uptrend channel parallel line (turquoise), which was double confirmed as resistance in the ITD.
> The next HTF resistance is the "Higher High" of 2023 (4463.4), which was confirmed as resistance with this week's close.
SUPPORTS
- FIB | HTF = 0.328 (4329.40) & 0.328 (4207.30) | 0.618 + 0.65 (4234.10 - 4251.90)
- MA | 20; 100 (4320.00 & 4200.00)
- POI | 4334.00 & 4200.00
- MSB | MTF = LH/23 (4325.2) & HH/23 (4194.2)
RESISTANCES
- FIB | HTF = 0.618 - 0.786 (4503.4 - 4550.0) ) | ITD = 1.618 (4551.9)
- MA | 5; 8 (4475.00)
- MSB | MTF = HH/23 (4463.4)
INDICATORS
- The MACD indicator has completed the bearish cross, confirming, from the momentum, the down sale.
- The RSI indicator has crossed below the 50% line, confirming it as resistance.
1 WEEK = 1 DAY x Five (Price Action)
(FIB = Fibonacci | MA = Moving Average | POI = Point of Interest | MSB = Market Structure Break)
> The candle did not form a formation to be highlighted
= note that the wick of the candle has a greater length than the shadow cast by the candle.
> The "CLOSING COURSE" occurred in the HTF sideways trend channel, whose centerline still leaves further correction potential open.
> We experience additional resistance from the uptrend channel parallel line (turquoise), which was double confirmed as resistance in the ITD.
> The next HTF resistance is the "Higher High" of 2023 (4463.4), which was confirmed as resistance with this week's close.
SUPPORTS
- FIB | HTF = 0.328 (4329.40) & 0.328 (4207.30) | 0.618 + 0.65 (4234.10 - 4251.90)
- MA | 20; 100 (4320.00 & 4200.00)
- POI | 4334.00 & 4200.00
- MSB | MTF = LH/23 (4325.2) & HH/23 (4194.2)
RESISTANCES
- FIB | HTF = 0.618 - 0.786 (4503.4 - 4550.0) ) | ITD = 1.618 (4551.9)
- MA | 5; 8 (4475.00)
- MSB | MTF = HH/23 (4463.4)
INDICATORS
- The MACD indicator has completed the bearish cross, confirming, from the momentum, the down sale.
- The RSI indicator has crossed below the 50% line, confirming it as resistance.
1 WEEK = 1 DAY x Five (Price Action)
(FIB = Fibonacci | MA = Moving Average | POI = Point of Interest | MSB = Market Structure Break)
Comment:
WEEK - CLOSING PRICE = BULLISH
> The candle formed a "DOJI"
= this indicates indecision and needs another candle close.
> The MTF trend channel, continues to serve as a resistance stad and could be tested as resistance next week.
> We get additional support from a Parallel Trendline, which is located in the overarching HTF downtrend channel (Turquoise) and generated several reactions in the past. (= was recaptured)
SUPPORTS
- FIB | ITD = 0.328 + 0.88 (4472.6 - 4360.4)
- MA | 20; 50; 100; 200 (4482.6 & 4447.0)
- POI | 4469.6 & 4490.0
- MSB | MTF = LH/23 (4325.2) & HH/23 (4194.2)
RESISTANCES
- FIB | ITD = 0.75 - 0.88 (4539.9 - 4576.2 ) & 1.618 (4551.9)
- MA | NONE
- POI | 4550.00 & 4580.00 & 4600.0
- MSB | MTF = LH/22 (4636.0)
INDICATORS
- The MACD indicator confirms falling momentum and is close to a bearish cross.
- The RSI indicator confirms that falling momentum always goes near the 50% neutral area.
1 WEEK = 1 DAY x Five (Price Action)
(FIB = Fibonacci | MA = Moving Average | POI = Point of Interest | MSB = Market Structure Break)
> The candle formed a "DOJI"
= this indicates indecision and needs another candle close.
> The MTF trend channel, continues to serve as a resistance stad and could be tested as resistance next week.
> We get additional support from a Parallel Trendline, which is located in the overarching HTF downtrend channel (Turquoise) and generated several reactions in the past. (= was recaptured)
SUPPORTS
- FIB | ITD = 0.328 + 0.88 (4472.6 - 4360.4)
- MA | 20; 50; 100; 200 (4482.6 & 4447.0)
- POI | 4469.6 & 4490.0
- MSB | MTF = LH/23 (4325.2) & HH/23 (4194.2)
RESISTANCES
- FIB | ITD = 0.75 - 0.88 (4539.9 - 4576.2 ) & 1.618 (4551.9)
- MA | NONE
- POI | 4550.00 & 4580.00 & 4600.0
- MSB | MTF = LH/22 (4636.0)
INDICATORS
- The MACD indicator confirms falling momentum and is close to a bearish cross.
- The RSI indicator confirms that falling momentum always goes near the 50% neutral area.
1 WEEK = 1 DAY x Five (Price Action)
(FIB = Fibonacci | MA = Moving Average | POI = Point of Interest | MSB = Market Structure Break)
Comment:
MONTH - CLOSING PRICE = BEARISH
> The candle did not form a highlighting formation
= note that the candle has an extreme shadow, highlighting the buying pressure, and only a very small wick.
> The candle broke back into the HTF uptrend channel, again rendering last month's breakout moot.
> The lower high of 2022 (4636.0) serves as the next very strong resistance and should show a reaction in the (intraday / weekly).
> Should the sell-off continue, the Lower High of 2022 (4325.2) in combination with several HTF-FIB levels, comes into play again as support.
1 MONTH = 1 WEEK x Four (Price Action)
> The candle did not form a highlighting formation
= note that the candle has an extreme shadow, highlighting the buying pressure, and only a very small wick.
> The candle broke back into the HTF uptrend channel, again rendering last month's breakout moot.
> The lower high of 2022 (4636.0) serves as the next very strong resistance and should show a reaction in the (intraday / weekly).
> Should the sell-off continue, the Lower High of 2022 (4325.2) in combination with several HTF-FIB levels, comes into play again as support.
1 MONTH = 1 WEEK x Four (Price Action)
Comment:
WEEKS - CLOSING PRICE = BEARISH
> the candle did not form a formation to be highlighted
= note that the wick of the candle is longer than the shadow cast by the candle = seller strength
> Trying to recapture the previous down-sale, we received a Strong down-sale with the USD news released on Friday, which is reflected as a "Bearish Engulfing" pattern on the daily chart.
> We get additional resistance from a Parallel Trendline, which is located in the overarching HTF downtrend channel (Turquoise) and generated several reactions in the past. (= was confirmed as resistance)
> The weekly and daily candles suggest a continuing down-sale.
= regarding this, a separate INTRA-Day short idea will be published tomorrow
SUPPORTS
- The prominent supports can be seen in the following chart picture.
- If there are any questions regarding this, please ask them in the comments.
RESISTANCES
- The prominent resistances can be seen in the following chart image.
- If there are any questions regarding this, please ask them in the comments.
INDICATORS
> The MACD indicator confirms falling momentum and is close to a continuation of the falling momentum.
> The RSI indicator is at the 50% line, indicating a neutral zone.
1 WEEK = 1 DAY x Five (Price Action)
(FIB = Fibonacci | MA = Moving Average | POI = Point of Interest | MSB = Market Structure Break)
> the candle did not form a formation to be highlighted
= note that the wick of the candle is longer than the shadow cast by the candle = seller strength
> Trying to recapture the previous down-sale, we received a Strong down-sale with the USD news released on Friday, which is reflected as a "Bearish Engulfing" pattern on the daily chart.
> We get additional resistance from a Parallel Trendline, which is located in the overarching HTF downtrend channel (Turquoise) and generated several reactions in the past. (= was confirmed as resistance)
> The weekly and daily candles suggest a continuing down-sale.
= regarding this, a separate INTRA-Day short idea will be published tomorrow
SUPPORTS
- The prominent supports can be seen in the following chart picture.
- If there are any questions regarding this, please ask them in the comments.
RESISTANCES
- The prominent resistances can be seen in the following chart image.
- If there are any questions regarding this, please ask them in the comments.
INDICATORS
> The MACD indicator confirms falling momentum and is close to a continuation of the falling momentum.
> The RSI indicator is at the 50% line, indicating a neutral zone.
1 WEEK = 1 DAY x Five (Price Action)
(FIB = Fibonacci | MA = Moving Average | POI = Point of Interest | MSB = Market Structure Break)
2-WEEK - INTERVAL
1-WEEK - INTERVAL
1-DAY - INTERVAL