XAU / USD – HTF JOURNAL - WEEKLY SERIES
This is an ACTIVELY managed BLOG CONTRIBUTION, which will be UPDATED WEEKLY with comments and trade ideas.
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In the following analysis, I do NOT highlight any specific scenario but neutrally look at the higher timeframes in the >
XAUUSD
<
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MARKED POINTS OF INTENTION (POI)
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| This way, I generate a SERIES for you, where you, as a reader, can - ACTIVELY - learn from the analyses, decisions, & interactions |
In the following analysis, I do NOT highlight any specific scenario but neutrally look at the higher timeframes in the >
XAUUSD
< - We focus on the technical KEY points and KEY areas that will be relevant in the coming weeks & months.
- As soon as candlestick closes emerge that suggest a temporary direction for the price intra-day, I create a separate post below.
- This post will be under a similar name, which is as follows: "XAU / USD - JOURNAL - ACTIVE SERIES" (Includes: entries, stop loss & take profit levels)
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MARKED POINTS OF INTENTION (POI)
- The all-time high from 2011 has been attempted to turn into support since 2020, which has been unsuccessful to date.
- At this moment, we are above this all-time high, running it for a retest.
- A 3-year RANGE has formed under this POI, which will serve as additional support.
- We are also in a downtrend channel whose upper trend line continues to be contested.
- Momentum indicators in the weekly TFs and higher are not meaningful; however, a small bearish divergence can be seen in the daily TFs.
- There are a lot of support areas standing in the way of a serious sell-off, which would have to be broken through first - both scenarios can thus not be ruled out | LONG / SHORT.
Z- You have to understand the big picture to not drown in the noise of the small one -Z
| ZielIstDieAutarkie |
If this idea and explanation have added value to you, I would appreciate a COMMENT or BOOST very much.
Thank you and happy trading!Z
Comment:
WEEKS - CLOSING PRICE = BEARISH
> The candle did not form a formation worth highlighting
= note that the candle close was below the close of the last HL, which underlines the selling pressure and could mean the initiation of a further down-sale.
> The "CLOSE" occurred below the 2011 ATH (1921.070), which now serves as resistance.
> The MTF trend channel midline, continues to serve as support and achieved several reactions in the past.
> We experience additional support from the sideways channel, which has existed since 2020 and whose upper support line is at 1905.00 USD.
The following "FIBONACCI-LEVEL" of the downward movement is still pending to be worked off:
= 0.75 - 0.786 (1866.965 - 1857.866 USD)
= 0.88 (1834.316 USD)
= 1.618 (1836.952 USD)
! ATTENTION - the visually displayed FIBs (0.618; 0.65; 0.328) are for orientation purposes only and have already been processed in the past!
> The "DEMAND - ZONE" below serves as additional support.
> The MA (50, 100, 200) - serve as support.
> The MA (5, 8, 20) - serve as resistance.
> The MACD indicator confirms the negative momentum.
> The RSI indicator confirms the negative momentum.
1 WEEK = 1 DAY x Five (Price Action)
OVERVIEW
> The candle did not form a formation worth highlighting
= note that the candle close was below the close of the last HL, which underlines the selling pressure and could mean the initiation of a further down-sale.
> The "CLOSE" occurred below the 2011 ATH (1921.070), which now serves as resistance.
> The MTF trend channel midline, continues to serve as support and achieved several reactions in the past.
> We experience additional support from the sideways channel, which has existed since 2020 and whose upper support line is at 1905.00 USD.
The following "FIBONACCI-LEVEL" of the downward movement is still pending to be worked off:
= 0.75 - 0.786 (1866.965 - 1857.866 USD)
= 0.88 (1834.316 USD)
= 1.618 (1836.952 USD)
! ATTENTION - the visually displayed FIBs (0.618; 0.65; 0.328) are for orientation purposes only and have already been processed in the past!
> The "DEMAND - ZONE" below serves as additional support.
> The MA (50, 100, 200) - serve as support.
> The MA (5, 8, 20) - serve as resistance.
> The MACD indicator confirms the negative momentum.
> The RSI indicator confirms the negative momentum.
1 WEEK = 1 DAY x Five (Price Action)
OVERVIEW
Comment:
WEEKS - CLOSING PRICE = BEARISH
> The candle did not form a formation worth highlighting
= it should be noted that the subordinate market structure was broken - which allows further room to fall.
> The "CLOSING COURSE" occurred in the HTF sideways trend channel, whose upper trendline served as support and is already confirmed by the market as resistance in the INTRA-DAY.
= for this reason, one can expect a run-up to the trend channel trend line in the INTRA-DAY and depending on the INTRA-DAY reaction, the down-sale continues or is interrupted.
> The next HTF support is the WEEK DEMAND zone and individual MAs, which are mentioned in the following lines.
> From the current situation, I expect another ab-sale.
SUPPORTS
- FIB | HTF = 0.75-0.786 (1866.965 - 1857.866 USD) | ITD = 1.618 (1836.952 USD)
- MA | 50; 100; 200 (1846,500 - 1864,500 USD)
- POI | 1850,000 & 1870,000
RESISTANCE
- FIB | HTF = 0.328 (1918,091 USD)
- MA | 5; 8; 20 (1934,000 USD)
- MSB | HTF = HH/11 (1921,070)
INDICATORS
- The MACD indicator continues its bearish trend, suggesting continued negative momentum.
- The RSI indicator has crossed below the 25% line, showing very strong bearish momentum.
1 WEEK = 1 DAY x Five (Price Action)
(FIB = Fibonacci | MA = Moving Average | POI = Point of Interest | MSB = Market Structure Break)
> The candle did not form a formation worth highlighting
= it should be noted that the subordinate market structure was broken - which allows further room to fall.
> The "CLOSING COURSE" occurred in the HTF sideways trend channel, whose upper trendline served as support and is already confirmed by the market as resistance in the INTRA-DAY.
= for this reason, one can expect a run-up to the trend channel trend line in the INTRA-DAY and depending on the INTRA-DAY reaction, the down-sale continues or is interrupted.
> The next HTF support is the WEEK DEMAND zone and individual MAs, which are mentioned in the following lines.
> From the current situation, I expect another ab-sale.
SUPPORTS
- FIB | HTF = 0.75-0.786 (1866.965 - 1857.866 USD) | ITD = 1.618 (1836.952 USD)
- MA | 50; 100; 200 (1846,500 - 1864,500 USD)
- POI | 1850,000 & 1870,000
RESISTANCE
- FIB | HTF = 0.328 (1918,091 USD)
- MA | 5; 8; 20 (1934,000 USD)
- MSB | HTF = HH/11 (1921,070)
INDICATORS
- The MACD indicator continues its bearish trend, suggesting continued negative momentum.
- The RSI indicator has crossed below the 25% line, showing very strong bearish momentum.
1 WEEK = 1 DAY x Five (Price Action)
(FIB = Fibonacci | MA = Moving Average | POI = Point of Interest | MSB = Market Structure Break)
Comment:
WEEK - CLOSING PRICE = BULLISH
> The candle formed a "BULLISH ENGULFING"
= this indicates a temporary trend reversal.
> The "CLOSING PRICE" occurred above the HTF sideways trend channel, whose upper trend line served as resistance and is already confirmed by the market as support in the INTRA-DAY.
= for this reason, we can expect a bullish continuation in INTRA-DAY until the next significant resistance areas are reached.
> All these arguments, which speak for a trend reversal - we still closed below the "Higher High" of 2011 (1921.070), which is still to be interpreted bearish.
> The next HTF resistance is the WEEKLY SUPPLY zone, short-term Mas and the overriding 0.328 FIB.
SUPPORTS
- FIB | HTF = 0.75-0.88 (1866.965 - 1834.316 USD) | ITD = 1.618 (1836.952 USD)
- MA | 50; 100 (1848.971–1868.635 USD)
- POI | 1850,000 & 1870,000
RESISTANCE
- FIB | HTF = 0.328 (1942.916 USD) | ITD = 0.618 - 0.65 (1947.755 - 1951.056 USD)
- MA | 5; 8; 20 (1924,000–1955,000 USD)
- MSB | HTF = HH/11 (1921,070)
INDICATORS
- The MACD indicator continues its bearish trend, suggesting continued negative momentum.
- The RSI indicator has crossed below the 40% line, showing rising momentum.
1 WEEK = 1 DAY x Five (Price Action)
(FIB = Fibonacci | MA = Moving Average | POI = Point of Interest | MSB = Market Structure Break)
> The candle formed a "BULLISH ENGULFING"
= this indicates a temporary trend reversal.
> The "CLOSING PRICE" occurred above the HTF sideways trend channel, whose upper trend line served as resistance and is already confirmed by the market as support in the INTRA-DAY.
= for this reason, we can expect a bullish continuation in INTRA-DAY until the next significant resistance areas are reached.
> All these arguments, which speak for a trend reversal - we still closed below the "Higher High" of 2011 (1921.070), which is still to be interpreted bearish.
> The next HTF resistance is the WEEKLY SUPPLY zone, short-term Mas and the overriding 0.328 FIB.
SUPPORTS
- FIB | HTF = 0.75-0.88 (1866.965 - 1834.316 USD) | ITD = 1.618 (1836.952 USD)
- MA | 50; 100 (1848.971–1868.635 USD)
- POI | 1850,000 & 1870,000
RESISTANCE
- FIB | HTF = 0.328 (1942.916 USD) | ITD = 0.618 - 0.65 (1947.755 - 1951.056 USD)
- MA | 5; 8; 20 (1924,000–1955,000 USD)
- MSB | HTF = HH/11 (1921,070)
INDICATORS
- The MACD indicator continues its bearish trend, suggesting continued negative momentum.
- The RSI indicator has crossed below the 40% line, showing rising momentum.
1 WEEK = 1 DAY x Five (Price Action)
(FIB = Fibonacci | MA = Moving Average | POI = Point of Interest | MSB = Market Structure Break)
Comment:
WEEK - CLOSING PRICE = BULLISH
> The candle did not form a formation worth highlighting
= note that the candle closes with a strong wick, which underlines the selling pressure.
> The "CLOSE" occurred above the 2011 ATH (1921.070), which now serves as support.
> The candle close occurred in the HTF downtrend channel (turquoise), which thus continues to play a role as resistance.
> We experience additional support from the sideways channel, which has existed since 2020 and whose upper support line is at 1905.00 USD.
SUPPORTS
- FIB | ITD = 0.328 - 0.88 (1930.428 - 1892.938 points)
- MA | 5; 8 (1934.727- 1920.129 USD)
- POI | 1925,000 & 1912,500 & 1903,000
RESISTANCE
- FIB | ITD = 0.75 - 0.88 (1961.408 - 1974.948 USD)
- MA | 20 (1951.686 USD)
- POI | 1960,000
- MSB | HTF = LH/23 (1987,530)
INDICATORS
- The MACD indicator continues to confirm the bearish trend but could change its direction.
> The RSI indicator is above the 50% line, indicating a neutral zone.
1 WEEK = 1 DAY x Five (Price Action)
(FIB = Fibonacci | MA = Moving Average | POI = Point of Interest | MSB = Market Structure Break)
> The candle did not form a formation worth highlighting
= note that the candle closes with a strong wick, which underlines the selling pressure.
> The "CLOSE" occurred above the 2011 ATH (1921.070), which now serves as support.
> The candle close occurred in the HTF downtrend channel (turquoise), which thus continues to play a role as resistance.
> We experience additional support from the sideways channel, which has existed since 2020 and whose upper support line is at 1905.00 USD.
SUPPORTS
- FIB | ITD = 0.328 - 0.88 (1930.428 - 1892.938 points)
- MA | 5; 8 (1934.727- 1920.129 USD)
- POI | 1925,000 & 1912,500 & 1903,000
RESISTANCE
- FIB | ITD = 0.75 - 0.88 (1961.408 - 1974.948 USD)
- MA | 20 (1951.686 USD)
- POI | 1960,000
- MSB | HTF = LH/23 (1987,530)
INDICATORS
- The MACD indicator continues to confirm the bearish trend but could change its direction.
> The RSI indicator is above the 50% line, indicating a neutral zone.
1 WEEK = 1 DAY x Five (Price Action)
(FIB = Fibonacci | MA = Moving Average | POI = Point of Interest | MSB = Market Structure Break)
Comment:
MONTH - CLOSING PRICE = BEARISH
> The candle did not form a highlighting formation
= note that the candle close has an extreme shadow, highlighting the buying pressure & despite this, the candle has no wick.
> The candle broke back into the HTF downtrend channel, again rendering last month's breakout moot.
> The Higher High from 2011 (1921.070) serves as the next very strong support and should show a reaction in the (Intraday / Weekly).
> If the Higher High fails to withstand selling pressure, the HTF sideways trend channel comes into play next and will provide significant resistance.
1 MONTH = 1 WEEK x Four (Price Action)
> The candle did not form a highlighting formation
= note that the candle close has an extreme shadow, highlighting the buying pressure & despite this, the candle has no wick.
> The candle broke back into the HTF downtrend channel, again rendering last month's breakout moot.
> The Higher High from 2011 (1921.070) serves as the next very strong support and should show a reaction in the (Intraday / Weekly).
> If the Higher High fails to withstand selling pressure, the HTF sideways trend channel comes into play next and will provide significant resistance.
1 MONTH = 1 WEEK x Four (Price Action)
Comment:
WEEKS - CLOSING PRICE = BULLISH
> The candle formed a "DOJI"
= this indicates indecision and needs another candle close.
> The "CLOSE" occurred above the 2011 ATH (1921.070), which now serves as support.
> The candle close occurred in the HTF downtrend channel (turquoise), which thus continues to play a role as resistance.
> We experience additional support from the sideways channel, which has been in place since 2020 and whose upper support line is at 1905.00 USD and has been confirmed as support.
SUPPORTS
- The prominent supports can be seen in the following chart image.
- If there are any questions regarding this, please ask them in the comments.
RESISTANCES
- The prominent resistances can be seen in the following chart image.
- If there are any questions regarding this, please ask them in the comments.
INDICATORS
- The MACD indicator continues to confirm the bearish trend, but could change direction.
> The RSI indicator is at the 50% line, indicating a neutral zone.
1 WEEK = 1 DAY x Five (Price Action)
(FIB = Fibonacci | MA = Moving Average | POI = Point of Interest | MSB = Market Structure Break)
> The candle formed a "DOJI"
= this indicates indecision and needs another candle close.
> The "CLOSE" occurred above the 2011 ATH (1921.070), which now serves as support.
> The candle close occurred in the HTF downtrend channel (turquoise), which thus continues to play a role as resistance.
> We experience additional support from the sideways channel, which has been in place since 2020 and whose upper support line is at 1905.00 USD and has been confirmed as support.
SUPPORTS
- The prominent supports can be seen in the following chart image.
- If there are any questions regarding this, please ask them in the comments.
RESISTANCES
- The prominent resistances can be seen in the following chart image.
- If there are any questions regarding this, please ask them in the comments.
INDICATORS
- The MACD indicator continues to confirm the bearish trend, but could change direction.
> The RSI indicator is at the 50% line, indicating a neutral zone.
1 WEEK = 1 DAY x Five (Price Action)
(FIB = Fibonacci | MA = Moving Average | POI = Point of Interest | MSB = Market Structure Break)
2-WEEK - INTERVAL
1-WEEK - INTERVAL
1-DAY - INTERVAL