XAUUSD - KOG REPORT - FOMC!

KOG Report FOMC:

This is our view for FOMC today, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile and can cause aggressive swings in price.

Gold is at a crucial price point at the moment just before a big federal statement release. After the move we’ve had to the downside, we would expect Gold to want to attempt some form of recovery, to at least the 1800 price region. However, as you can see, the institutional selling isn’t giving bulls an opportunity to cover any positions that are being held above. We witnessed a bullish weekly candle last week, but it’s still weak and lacks volume. It was a failed attempt to recover, which entails caution for this FOMC and the days ahead until the end of the month. We published a KOG Report last week showing the liquidity pool sitting below around the 1650-65 price zone; this is a potential target to swoop the lows before an attempt to test the voids above. For this reason, we will look at the extreme levels for FOMC and the days ahead, not being concerned about the immediate range and levels.

We already know the 1750 psychological level is going to try and be defended and have indications of a push up in price if that 1720 -16 level holds as support. We want to see if bears defend it by coming in and taking this down into the liquidity region breaking the yearly low! We can see MA’s grouped together on the hourly and now on the 4 hourly timeframes. We have a huge gap to the mean above on the daily, that either needs to be visited or the ranging price action will bring it down lower. We’re still in bearish mode here expecting a swing to the upside before then a break of this low to continue downwards so let’s set the scene for the potential move to come. As always, we’ll trade this with two scenarios in mind using the 4H extreme levels as a guide.

Scenario 1:

They push the price up towards 1750 or potentially slightly above or below, we see resistance there and a clear rejection in price. This is the first level we feel that will represent an opportunity to short the market down into the 1720, 1710, 1695 and below that 1675 levels. These levels below 1675, especially that 1665-40 region is where we want to see exhaustion in price to then look to take this back up towards the 1750 price point as the first target.

Scenario 2:

They push the price down into the lower support levels of 1690-80, this is where we want to see the first level of support, based on strong support we feel this level would represent an opportunity to then long the market back up towards the 1720, 1735 and above that 1750 price points. As we said above, there is a huge chance they will try to break that level to the downside so expect a swoop into that liquidity pool below. The ideal long is more likely going to be from there and that’s our preferred region at the moment.

Because it is FOMC we’re focusing on the extreme levels, we’re not interested in trying to capture quick pips in a volatile market against the volume driven candles. If the plan works out it works out, if it doesn’t, we’re happy to sit tight and let Excalibur guide us intra-day through the markets.

Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.

As always, trade safe.

KOG