LIVE #2! THE MOST ACCURATE GOLD FORECAST IN THE WORLD
SUMMARY - This is the second 11/25/23, 1-hour bar, 20-day ultra-detailed (at 18-min bar), CONTINUOUS EVOLVING FORECAST for direction and shape of price action in FX_IDC XAUUSD gold ticker. Continuing from "THE DEATH OF GOLD PART 1" published earlier today, the orange hi-light is the same, but with the PREQUESITE THAT BULLS HIT 2020 by Tuesday 11/28 before the 1935-ish check down to Tuesday 12/05. If price hits all boxes to 12/05, then this sets up a $100 spike up from 12/06 ADP to 12/08 NFP. By that time, I'm sure I will have something new. This draft is listed as neutral because it's both short and long.
WARNING - As a precaution, the first rule of trading is don't lose money. As a reminder, the second rule of trading is don't forget the first rule. As usual, this MUST be used with continuing notes posted throughout duration of this forecast to supplement - not replace - your trading discipline and risk management. As of late, forecasts are once/twice per day to be continuously relevant. However, from here to March 10th, 2024, I will have to play by ear as I have to pay more attention to execution and less to forecasting. As always, when price action disagrees with forecast meaningfully and I do not respond in time, SCRAP THE FORECAST and trade defensively.
HOW TO USE - Read the notes I add, they are continuously updated to be relevant as much as possible. If you are that guy that won't read the notes, follow a guy who doesn't do notes save both of us the headache.
DETAILS - Links for most recent and relevant posts are below for background and how we got here. I recommend that you replay them (especially if you are new to us) occasionally as frame of reference, but most importantly, as evidence that these forecasts help you cash day in and day out. Ask my readers.
IF MY FORECASTS HELP YOU MAKE REAL MONEY - Want more posts, more accuracy and more updates? Help me out by spreading the word to people you know PERSONALLY. Word of mouth is the best way to help make this a thing. The more demand I have for this, the more posts on more tickers I will make. The current rates of followers and readership is really not worth it for me to keep going, but I keep trying everyday to make you money. If you don't have friends because your wife say they are too much fun, well then I guess hit the boost/like button.
WARNING - As a precaution, the first rule of trading is don't lose money. As a reminder, the second rule of trading is don't forget the first rule. As usual, this MUST be used with continuing notes posted throughout duration of this forecast to supplement - not replace - your trading discipline and risk management. As of late, forecasts are once/twice per day to be continuously relevant. However, from here to March 10th, 2024, I will have to play by ear as I have to pay more attention to execution and less to forecasting. As always, when price action disagrees with forecast meaningfully and I do not respond in time, SCRAP THE FORECAST and trade defensively.
HOW TO USE - Read the notes I add, they are continuously updated to be relevant as much as possible. If you are that guy that won't read the notes, follow a guy who doesn't do notes save both of us the headache.
DETAILS - Links for most recent and relevant posts are below for background and how we got here. I recommend that you replay them (especially if you are new to us) occasionally as frame of reference, but most importantly, as evidence that these forecasts help you cash day in and day out. Ask my readers.
IF MY FORECASTS HELP YOU MAKE REAL MONEY - Want more posts, more accuracy and more updates? Help me out by spreading the word to people you know PERSONALLY. Word of mouth is the best way to help make this a thing. The more demand I have for this, the more posts on more tickers I will make. The current rates of followers and readership is really not worth it for me to keep going, but I keep trying everyday to make you money. If you don't have friends because your wife say they are too much fun, well then I guess hit the boost/like button.
Comment:
8:49 PM ET, 11/25, The binary outcome of this orange route hitting perfect, perfect...
a) is INSANE...
b) so insane that Im not going to say another word until 12/05 just to see ...
c) if it hits all those boxes
d) get your trading funds ready
e) it's going to be a December to remember for the rest of your life
f) which ever way it ultimately goes
a) is INSANE...
b) so insane that Im not going to say another word until 12/05 just to see ...
c) if it hits all those boxes
d) get your trading funds ready
e) it's going to be a December to remember for the rest of your life
f) which ever way it ultimately goes
Comment:
g) so if doesn't miss a box to 12/05 ..
h) no comment
h) no comment
Comment:
11/26 11:09 AM ET, 5 PREVIOUS POSTS LINKS BELOW:
a) there's a big decision coming for gold (by extension commodities complex, equities, forex, you name it)
b) The Most Accurate Gold Forecast... anticipated this ending in massive bull
c) No More Thinking... was not anticipating anything
d) The Death of Gold... anticipates this ending in massive bear
e) starting with 11/28 top (2008-2020), I see move to 1935 by 12/05
f) 12/06-12/08 reaction to ADP and NFP determines massive bull or massive bear
a) there's a big decision coming for gold (by extension commodities complex, equities, forex, you name it)
b) The Most Accurate Gold Forecast... anticipated this ending in massive bull
c) No More Thinking... was not anticipating anything
d) The Death of Gold... anticipates this ending in massive bear
e) starting with 11/28 top (2008-2020), I see move to 1935 by 12/05
f) 12/06-12/08 reaction to ADP and NFP determines massive bull or massive bear
Comment:
g) my personal opinion is a bear setup if analyze gold by itself
h) but to make the market agree as a a whole....
i) SPX, DXY, BTC, gold and oil...
j) gold has to "find a way" into a bull market
k) the twisting intermediate trends has begun ELIMINATE OBVIOUS OUTCOMES
l) meaning which ever way this ends up, the intermediate trends say
m) it will be shocking
n) ADP, NFP, CPI, PPI are 12/6, 8, 12, and 13 respectively
o) golds chart imply that FOMC on afternoon of 12/13 DECIDES EVERYTHING
h) but to make the market agree as a a whole....
i) SPX, DXY, BTC, gold and oil...
j) gold has to "find a way" into a bull market
k) the twisting intermediate trends has begun ELIMINATE OBVIOUS OUTCOMES
l) meaning which ever way this ends up, the intermediate trends say
m) it will be shocking
n) ADP, NFP, CPI, PPI are 12/6, 8, 12, and 13 respectively
o) golds chart imply that FOMC on afternoon of 12/13 DECIDES EVERYTHING
Comment:
p) what I am saying is the price action from 12/06-12/12 will tell us AHEAD OF FED MEETING
q) like this:
q) like this:
Comment:
Comment:
r) the obvious 2 moves by mirror image looks like this:
Comment:
s) but the bulls can't take "the obvious route"
Comment:
t) odds seem to STRONGLY favor hitting the circle
u) if its bull outcome, bulls HAVE TO OVER CORRECT
u) if its bull outcome, bulls HAVE TO OVER CORRECT
Comment:
v) of which there are 2 outcomes
w) and this is the reasonable one:
w) and this is the reasonable one:
Comment:
x) with the way that intermediate trends are set though
y) we have to be ready for the unreasaonble one
z) I have it, we will cross that bridge if and when
y) we have to be ready for the unreasaonble one
z) I have it, we will cross that bridge if and when
Comment:
3:11 PM ET... WHAT'S STUPID ABOUT THIS SITUATION IS THIS:
Comment:
a) had we taken either of the skinny blue lines, we avoid risk of collapse
b) but now we take the ROUTE WITH RISK OF COLLAPSE...
c) and ask for MIRACLE REVERSAL AT LAST SECOND (12/06)
b) but now we take the ROUTE WITH RISK OF COLLAPSE...
c) and ask for MIRACLE REVERSAL AT LAST SECOND (12/06)
Comment:
Monday 11/27, 12:33 AM ET, 2012.XX from 2018.xx high notes:
a) a tad bit stronger than thought but nothing out of the ordinary
b) any changes to our plans?
c) yes, it makes 2023-24 possible for Tuesday
d) "possible" but 'not yet likely" until we see what reaction tomorrow is
e) why does the high have to be Tuesday?
f) it doesn't have to be Tuesday, but it is very unlikely that it would to be today
g) it could be Monday, drop and still rebound high enough for Tuesday
h) that it would make Tuesday PM the short entry for 12/05
i) and that floor for 12/05 at 1930-35 now looks like 1940-1945
f) but that can change yet again
g) that's it for Sunday, good night
a) a tad bit stronger than thought but nothing out of the ordinary
b) any changes to our plans?
c) yes, it makes 2023-24 possible for Tuesday
d) "possible" but 'not yet likely" until we see what reaction tomorrow is
e) why does the high have to be Tuesday?
f) it doesn't have to be Tuesday, but it is very unlikely that it would to be today
g) it could be Monday, drop and still rebound high enough for Tuesday
h) that it would make Tuesday PM the short entry for 12/05
i) and that floor for 12/05 at 1930-35 now looks like 1940-1945
f) but that can change yet again
g) that's it for Sunday, good night
Comment:
1:43 AM ET .. WATCH OUT BULLS...
a) bears aiming for 1993-1994 within 12 hours
b) doesn't mean they will get it, but that's what they want
a) bears aiming for 1993-1994 within 12 hours
b) doesn't mean they will get it, but that's what they want
Comment:
12:43 PM ET, 11 hour later at 2009.32 from 2005.80 low in the morning...
a) bears got stopped at 2005.xx
b) they are trying again to get to 2002-2003 by 3-4 PM ET...
c) the faster they get there odds increase of going under 2000
d) with the way it's stalling it's implying 2002 will swing back up to 2020+ for Tuesday as
e) if it goes lower around 95-ish, then Tuesday high 2012-2018
f) if 2002 swings up, then Tuesday high 2019-2024
g) again, price has been a bit stronger than expected
h) but our plans have not changed for tomorrow
a) bears got stopped at 2005.xx
b) they are trying again to get to 2002-2003 by 3-4 PM ET...
c) the faster they get there odds increase of going under 2000
d) with the way it's stalling it's implying 2002 will swing back up to 2020+ for Tuesday as
e) if it goes lower around 95-ish, then Tuesday high 2012-2018
f) if 2002 swings up, then Tuesday high 2019-2024
g) again, price has been a bit stronger than expected
h) but our plans have not changed for tomorrow
Comment:
1:10 PM consider:
Comment:
a) right now orange is favored over light orange and blue...
b) but it's pushing like it wants blue
c) while I am on 2 min bars right now at 2010.40 and 1:11 PM, orange should be the outcome
d) but this can change quickly here
e) so becareful...
f) should it go blue then what?..
b) but it's pushing like it wants blue
c) while I am on 2 min bars right now at 2010.40 and 1:11 PM, orange should be the outcome
d) but this can change quickly here
e) so becareful...
f) should it go blue then what?..
Comment:
g) then this, but we will deal with it later:
Comment:
h) how do you know it will go blue?
1) the route for going blue at 1:16 PM ET and 2010.48 is the following...
2) move quickly to 2012.5 AND
3) HOLD 2011.5 FOR 30-45 MIN...
4) if it does that in the next hour or two, it will favor blue
5) but for 2-4 hours only ... it doesn't move then the last light orange is the only option left
6) but at 1:19 PM ET it's still favoringthe darker orange
1) the route for going blue at 1:16 PM ET and 2010.48 is the following...
2) move quickly to 2012.5 AND
3) HOLD 2011.5 FOR 30-45 MIN...
4) if it does that in the next hour or two, it will favor blue
5) but for 2-4 hours only ... it doesn't move then the last light orange is the only option left
6) but at 1:19 PM ET it's still favoringthe darker orange
Comment:
7) 1:38 PM ET, went 2012-2013 and holding, obviously going blue now...
8) I will detail what it should look like
8) I will detail what it should look like
Comment:
9) 1:41 PM ET.. IT'S GOT A SHOT FOR 1929!!
Comment:
10) typo!! yes 2029!! my bad
Comment:
11) 2:00 PM ET... regarding my friend's call for 2048...
a) way too early
b) still 2012.32 as I'm typing (which means favors a move for 2029... that could us to morning tomorrow
c) but the window for reversal to 1995 HAS NOT CLOSED
d) so yeah.... too early for anyting above 2030 right now...
a) way too early
b) still 2012.32 as I'm typing (which means favors a move for 2029... that could us to morning tomorrow
c) but the window for reversal to 1995 HAS NOT CLOSED
d) so yeah.... too early for anyting above 2030 right now...
Comment:
11/27 2:08 PM ET.. THIS IS IMPORTANT AF!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
A) speed of a move ALWAYS MATTER A GREAT DEAL
B) how fast we get to 1929 EXTRAPOLATES INTO 3-4 DIFFERENT SCENARIOS...
C) it's 2:10 PM ET, NY CLOSES in 110 minutes
D) IF WE SOMEHOW GET 1929 BY THEN!....
E) THE SKY'S THE LIMIT...
F) but if it's Tues morning.... sigh.. HOW WE AVOID 1945?
A) speed of a move ALWAYS MATTER A GREAT DEAL
B) how fast we get to 1929 EXTRAPOLATES INTO 3-4 DIFFERENT SCENARIOS...
C) it's 2:10 PM ET, NY CLOSES in 110 minutes
D) IF WE SOMEHOW GET 1929 BY THEN!....
E) THE SKY'S THE LIMIT...
F) but if it's Tues morning.... sigh.. HOW WE AVOID 1945?
Comment:
H) the reason is it pulls the short and intermediate waves "back into bull position"
I) if it's too slow, the waves don't bend fast enough.. like right now
I) if it's too slow, the waves don't bend fast enough.. like right now
Comment:
J) this is why I don't trust the bull thesis.. so many opportunities
K) everytime, stall, stall, stall
L) and let the bears find a way back in
K) everytime, stall, stall, stall
L) and let the bears find a way back in
Comment:
2:49 PM THIS IS EVEN MORE IMPORTANT!!!!
1) so in the last month...
2) I have expounded on why Gold needs 2120 by 11/29-30 and 2220 by 12/11-12/12
3) this is not for some arbitrary reason
4) this is because:
a) if gold wants to "get ahead of the sell off"
b) bc THERE'S ALWAYS A SELL OFF after major rallies
c) gold needs to hit those targets TO MAINTAIN BULL POSITION AFTER THE SELL OFF..
d) if we move late like this chart I gave you half way up the page:
1) so in the last month...
2) I have expounded on why Gold needs 2120 by 11/29-30 and 2220 by 12/11-12/12
3) this is not for some arbitrary reason
4) this is because:
a) if gold wants to "get ahead of the sell off"
b) bc THERE'S ALWAYS A SELL OFF after major rallies
c) gold needs to hit those targets TO MAINTAIN BULL POSITION AFTER THE SELL OFF..
d) if we move late like this chart I gave you half way up the page:
Comment:
e) in chart above
f) this has 2220 IN LATE DECEMBER NOT EVEN JANUARY..
g) which is not even 3 weeks after my call for it
h) but it doesn't guarantee we have a bull market after that
i) bc the window to finish this move at 1840 by February is wide open
f) this has 2220 IN LATE DECEMBER NOT EVEN JANUARY..
g) which is not even 3 weeks after my call for it
h) but it doesn't guarantee we have a bull market after that
i) bc the window to finish this move at 1840 by February is wide open
Comment:
5) so what, so what?
6) well right now is 3:00 PM ET... ON 11/27 and 2012.50
7) the route to 2120 on 11/29-30, even though it's so tight
8) is a live route (not favored one)
9) and for the record, I actually think it's 11/29 (meaning inside 34 hours)
10) but that's too tight
11) so? 2100 on 11/29 and 2120 on 11/30
12) fair? ok...
6) well right now is 3:00 PM ET... ON 11/27 and 2012.50
7) the route to 2120 on 11/29-30, even though it's so tight
8) is a live route (not favored one)
9) and for the record, I actually think it's 11/29 (meaning inside 34 hours)
10) but that's too tight
11) so? 2100 on 11/29 and 2120 on 11/30
12) fair? ok...
Comment:
13) so Iam working on this chart right now not bc it's favored
14) bc my instincts say I should do it
15) so that's what next
16) bc I could see this turning that way
14) bc my instincts say I should do it
15) so that's what next
16) bc I could see this turning that way
Comment:
3:56 PM ET SO HERE IS MY PERSONAL VIEW OF THIS:
Comment:
a) so like originally, 2120 by 11/29-30
b) but THIS TIME 2220 BY 12/07
c) that is 8 TRADING DAYS AWAY
d) 9 if you count Sunday
e) 10 if you count saturday
f) that will be the thesis page
b) but THIS TIME 2220 BY 12/07
c) that is 8 TRADING DAYS AWAY
d) 9 if you count Sunday
e) 10 if you count saturday
f) that will be the thesis page
Comment:
THESIS PAGE IN 3HR BAR:
Comment:
a) for chart above, so I'm using this move fore the "thesis" page
b) that obviously mean I feel strongly about it
c) 2220 by 12/07 is not part of "the forecast"
d) it is what gold needs to do, in my opinion, to regain bull position
e) and also be insured against bears destroying the setup by february
b) that obviously mean I feel strongly about it
c) 2220 by 12/07 is not part of "the forecast"
d) it is what gold needs to do, in my opinion, to regain bull position
e) and also be insured against bears destroying the setup by february
Comment:
THIS POST HAS ENDED HERE IS LIVE#3!:
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Related Ideas
a) had to look though all of that
b) to find a possible route for a bull comeback
c) still not confident in this outcome vs "THE DEATH OF GOLD PART 1"
d) but considering what I see in the other 3 tickers, let's give it one more chance
e) we will find out, I'm sure, on 12/6