MQP PRESENTS - MY AMERICAN DREAM 3.11 TIME TO CASH IT
HEADER - This is most updated look of the curves.
SUMMARY - As I stated in 3.10 moments ago, the short curves (under 1 day) can't be trusted. Why not? This is because I GET DIFFERENT CURVES FROM DIFFERENT TICKERS OF XAUUSD OR GC1! (futures).
DETAILS - See links below for background.
NOTES 1) - It is very hard to imagine ANOTHER TURN DOWN.
a) the intermediate curves for "perfect 48 down" are all turning
b) it's not that they can't turn down, but they are in "twisting up mode"
c) this is a specific situation that involves all regressions under 100 days
d) in my humble opinion, it's over for the bear route
f) I picked up several tricks last 4 days, one of which is how handicap these situations well
g) more later.
SUMMARY - As I stated in 3.10 moments ago, the short curves (under 1 day) can't be trusted. Why not? This is because I GET DIFFERENT CURVES FROM DIFFERENT TICKERS OF XAUUSD OR GC1! (futures).
DETAILS - See links below for background.
NOTES 1) - It is very hard to imagine ANOTHER TURN DOWN.
a) the intermediate curves for "perfect 48 down" are all turning
b) it's not that they can't turn down, but they are in "twisting up mode"
c) this is a specific situation that involves all regressions under 100 days
d) in my humble opinion, it's over for the bear route
f) I picked up several tricks last 4 days, one of which is how handicap these situations well
g) more later.
Comment:
f) also stated in 3.10 that it would a singular 4-HOUR BAR, not a staircase up scenario
Comment:
NOTES 3)- In chart above:
1) there are 2 hi-lights
2) the darker one has boxes
3) it is my opinion that price correct sideways as it's doing right this second...
4) and merge with the darker one with boxes
5) but I copied and pasted the lighter one bc of suspiciion of...
6) the way that the machines count trading days, holidays, and so on
7) it's not a giant difference, no change to strategy sell 1900-1920 late Thursday, Friday, OR TUESDAY JAN 03RD, BC MON IS ANOTHER HOLIDAY
1) there are 2 hi-lights
2) the darker one has boxes
3) it is my opinion that price correct sideways as it's doing right this second...
4) and merge with the darker one with boxes
5) but I copied and pasted the lighter one bc of suspiciion of...
6) the way that the machines count trading days, holidays, and so on
7) it's not a giant difference, no change to strategy sell 1900-1920 late Thursday, Friday, OR TUESDAY JAN 03RD, BC MON IS ANOTHER HOLIDAY
Comment:
NOTES 4) in notes 1) - f) above I said I picked up a few tricks...
a) here is the chart I posted last night in 3.10 WAY BEFORE THE SPIKE TO 1833
a) here is the chart I posted last night in 3.10 WAY BEFORE THE SPIKE TO 1833
Comment:
continuing w/ chart above:
b) I have a complete understanding on how "lock and loaded" regressions should look
c) but THAT DOESN'T MEAN THAT IT WILL FOLLOW THROUGH bc...
d) we HAD THAT SITUATION FOR BEARS AT Monday open too
f) but what I learned now is WHAT A REVERSAL FROM THAT SITUATION SHOULD LOOK LIKE
b) I have a complete understanding on how "lock and loaded" regressions should look
c) but THAT DOESN'T MEAN THAT IT WILL FOLLOW THROUGH bc...
d) we HAD THAT SITUATION FOR BEARS AT Monday open too
f) but what I learned now is WHAT A REVERSAL FROM THAT SITUATION SHOULD LOOK LIKE
Comment:
NOTES 4) My opinion in NOTES 3, 3) on path of price action is wrong. But it won't be a giant difference
a) we need a 3.12 update, will post when I can
b) until then no change in plans
c) I suspect that it would still be no change even with 3.12 finished
a) we need a 3.12 update, will post when I can
b) until then no change in plans
c) I suspect that it would still be no change even with 3.12 finished
Comment:
d) continuing, I can see now that this draft is a bit slow
e) so that we know
f) the question is how to handicap the top??
g) so 1910 looks doable
h) 1925 is within reason, but the setup suggests higher
i) this is unknowable until later this week
j) as it stands 1910-1915 should get hit before markets close this Friday 12/30
k) that's also a pretty strong exit
l) beyond that, we will cross that bridge if and when...
e) so that we know
f) the question is how to handicap the top??
g) so 1910 looks doable
h) 1925 is within reason, but the setup suggests higher
i) this is unknowable until later this week
j) as it stands 1910-1915 should get hit before markets close this Friday 12/30
k) that's also a pretty strong exit
l) beyond that, we will cross that bridge if and when...
Comment:
m) continuing, some different ratios have the top on MON JANUARY 3RD, WHICH MEANS TUESDAY JAN 4TH BC MONDAY IS A HOLIDAY
n) I keep repeating this holiday thing, bc it really messes with daily forecasts
o) so Friday or Tuesday
n) I keep repeating this holiday thing, bc it really messes with daily forecasts
o) so Friday or Tuesday
Comment:
N0TES 5) after reviewing other angles/ratios
a) no change from this draft
b) price action from here to Thursday MAY UNDERPERFORM THE FIRST COUPLE BOXES LIKE THIS:
a) no change from this draft
b) price action from here to Thursday MAY UNDERPERFORM THE FIRST COUPLE BOXES LIKE THIS:
Comment:
Comment:
c) again, as I said before, this is a 2-week trade
d) now it looks like a 1 week trade
e) an ascending bull flag is my expectation for next 48 hours
f) anything around 1810 IS STRONG BUY WITH CONVICTION, if it gets that low
d) now it looks like a 1 week trade
e) an ascending bull flag is my expectation for next 48 hours
f) anything around 1810 IS STRONG BUY WITH CONVICTION, if it gets that low
Comment:
Comment:
NOTES 6) FOR CHART ABOVE:
a) typo, LAST "GOOD" ENTRY...
b) chart above more updated than chart at top, but not that different
c) low end of this week's high is 1870-ish
d) it's 11.80 as I type this, THIS IS AN EXCELLENT ENTRY HERE !!!
a) typo, LAST "GOOD" ENTRY...
b) chart above more updated than chart at top, but not that different
c) low end of this week's high is 1870-ish
d) it's 11.80 as I type this, THIS IS AN EXCELLENT ENTRY HERE !!!
Comment:
e) I AM UPPING MY LEVERAGE HERE
d) have a good rest of the day, I'll update first thing tomorrow morning
d) have a good rest of the day, I'll update first thing tomorrow morning
Comment:
NOTES 7 - ADDED INSURANCE AS WELL
a) took $$ made earlier to double up on insurance (puts)
b) why?
c) I am totally convinced that this rally is going occur
d) but in the window that is closing in 12 hours for bears...
e) were it swing down, it would be twice as fast as the move in 3.9 's "FINAL DRAFT"
f) odds of this is very low, but I am VERY VERY VERY LEVERAGED LONG END now, so it's just smart to do
a) took $$ made earlier to double up on insurance (puts)
b) why?
c) I am totally convinced that this rally is going occur
d) but in the window that is closing in 12 hours for bears...
e) were it swing down, it would be twice as fast as the move in 3.9 's "FINAL DRAFT"
f) odds of this is very low, but I am VERY VERY VERY LEVERAGED LONG END now, so it's just smart to do
Comment:
NOTES 8 - 1815 at 1:32 PM ET
a) there's decent chance at closing 4 PM ET aftermarket at or near the 1833 high
b) I would say 2/8-3/8 chance
c) just for reference, that's all not meant to day trade
a) there's decent chance at closing 4 PM ET aftermarket at or near the 1833 high
b) I would say 2/8-3/8 chance
c) just for reference, that's all not meant to day trade
Comment:
NOTES 9 - Another spike setup in place. Can hit 1830s in 120 minutes, so 4:30 PM ET.
1) it doesn't have to go now
2) but it cam
3) this one is important bc if it does spike to 1830s by that time,
4) whatever odds left for bears can approach 1/64, 1/128 so on...
1) it doesn't have to go now
2) but it cam
3) this one is important bc if it does spike to 1830s by that time,
4) whatever odds left for bears can approach 1/64, 1/128 so on...
Comment:
3:36 - ANOTHER SPIKE SETUP
1) don't know if it will take this one
2) it's in an interesting spot, bc it has a lot of juice behind it
3) at the same time the last opportunity for bears worth mentioning (bc after this one, it's not worth mentioning) is going to close 8 PM ET
4) bears need 1800 or less by that time
5) bulls just need to hold 1807, and may push that out of reach by that time
6) this is the last theoretically weak area for bulls until 1915-1920, Friday through Tuesday
1) don't know if it will take this one
2) it's in an interesting spot, bc it has a lot of juice behind it
3) at the same time the last opportunity for bears worth mentioning (bc after this one, it's not worth mentioning) is going to close 8 PM ET
4) bears need 1800 or less by that time
5) bulls just need to hold 1807, and may push that out of reach by that time
6) this is the last theoretically weak area for bulls until 1915-1920, Friday through Tuesday
Comment:
NOTES 9 - VOLUME ANALYSIS WITH IVO 4 ( GC1! VS XAUUSD VS GLD)
Comment:
for chart above:
a) this is my refined IVO, IVO4; probably won't be done with it until IVO9 OR IVO900 (j/k)
b) now I have hard evidence that it is useful and have a novel way of using it
c) as before this analysis is done with 3 tickers for a better shot of the market
d) that is GC1! (gold futures), XAUUSD (IDC spot ticker), and GLD etf adjusted for bar size
e) that means 3H bar in futures and spot = 48 minutes, not counting pre/aftermarkets (that in itself is another headache)
f) please understand that I have no way of noing if these 3 combined would even amount to half the gold transaction in the global marketplace
h) but it does help if they all 3 agree
i) with that said volume says:
1) the call should be long, but not totally ready yet
2) of the 3, the heaviest buying is in the ETF
3) followed by spot ticker
4) while futures is where the selling is going on
5) so whoever trades gold in futures, they are one week behind the trend
j) so that's all you can really gather from that
k) there are so many holes you can poke in whether the raw data can be trusted
l) but I can totally say that under 100-day snap shot, the total picture favors bulls
m) yet, it's not a stretch to say if bulls stall for 7 trading days, they can easily get crushed
a) this is my refined IVO, IVO4; probably won't be done with it until IVO9 OR IVO900 (j/k)
b) now I have hard evidence that it is useful and have a novel way of using it
c) as before this analysis is done with 3 tickers for a better shot of the market
d) that is GC1! (gold futures), XAUUSD (IDC spot ticker), and GLD etf adjusted for bar size
e) that means 3H bar in futures and spot = 48 minutes, not counting pre/aftermarkets (that in itself is another headache)
f) please understand that I have no way of noing if these 3 combined would even amount to half the gold transaction in the global marketplace
h) but it does help if they all 3 agree
i) with that said volume says:
1) the call should be long, but not totally ready yet
2) of the 3, the heaviest buying is in the ETF
3) followed by spot ticker
4) while futures is where the selling is going on
5) so whoever trades gold in futures, they are one week behind the trend
j) so that's all you can really gather from that
k) there are so many holes you can poke in whether the raw data can be trusted
l) but I can totally say that under 100-day snap shot, the total picture favors bulls
m) yet, it's not a stretch to say if bulls stall for 7 trading days, they can easily get crushed
Comment:
7:30 PM leveraged up again at 1809 and tightened up insurance strikes w/o adding
1) it's awfully close to to the turn if that wasn't it
2) the next move up should be beautiful
1) it's awfully close to to the turn if that wasn't it
2) the next move up should be beautiful
Comment:
THIS POST HAS BASICALLY ENDED: CONTINUE W/ PART 3.12:
(3.12 is a shorter chart bc it's only 30 hours long)
(in the situation that I can't post another chart after 3.12, use 3.11 until it runs out)
(in the situation that I can't post another chart after 3.12, use 3.11 until it runs out)
Comment:
!!!! PLEASE IGNORE 3.12, THE FIRST SEVERAL BOXES ARE WRONG !!!!
HERE IS REPLACEMENT, 3.13:
HERE IS REPLACEMENT, 3.13:
Comment:
I am live for 2530-2690. Start here:
www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/6DbGXwIK-2325-2450-WALK-THROUGH-TO-FOMC-REACTION-PART-4/
www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/6DbGXwIK-2325-2450-WALK-THROUGH-TO-FOMC-REACTION-PART-4/
Related Ideas
a) if you followed notes in 3.9, I discussed this move during Christmas Day
b) and after I went long, I stated that I did within the hour at 1801-02
c) and I gave the reasons why, simply because bears hesitated on a perfect opportunity
d) and clarify this in 3.10
e) I'm sorry if you were mislead, but I stayed on top of it the entire turn