MQP PRESENTS - MY AMERICAN DREAM PART 3.3 TIME TO DELIVER
HEADER - This is more updated version of PART 3.2. This adjusts for the last week's price action. This is what seven years has lead to. It's kind of do or die for me.
SUMMARY - As of this very hour, my methodology says that this move is far and away the favorite to January 6th (the third ellipse at top).
DETAILS - Entry first ellipse. Sell second ellipse. Short third ellipse. Even though the short would work through 4th ellipse to 1800, from the best numbers right now, cover 1860 to be safe. MY PERSONAL ENTRY IS 12/21 OR 12/22.
NOTES - I will add more later but off the top of my head:
1) Price's path pretty much HAS TO GO LIKE THE HI-LIGHT THROUGH 12/22 TO WORK. There is NO SECOND PLACE.
2) If it varies, only to the upside is ok.
3) If it varies but somewhat to the downside, it may still work but with high 2-way vol from 12/23 to 01/06.
4) The blue hilight box is a holiday, SO NOTHING HAPPPENS for about 19 hours.
5) All signs point to 1950 on 12/30, 1970 maybe 01/03.
6) Links to previous work below for background. I also link 1G post for possibility of bear outcome, but its only suggestive, not predictive bc it is out-of-date.
SUMMARY - As of this very hour, my methodology says that this move is far and away the favorite to January 6th (the third ellipse at top).
DETAILS - Entry first ellipse. Sell second ellipse. Short third ellipse. Even though the short would work through 4th ellipse to 1800, from the best numbers right now, cover 1860 to be safe. MY PERSONAL ENTRY IS 12/21 OR 12/22.
NOTES - I will add more later but off the top of my head:
1) Price's path pretty much HAS TO GO LIKE THE HI-LIGHT THROUGH 12/22 TO WORK. There is NO SECOND PLACE.
2) If it varies, only to the upside is ok.
3) If it varies but somewhat to the downside, it may still work but with high 2-way vol from 12/23 to 01/06.
4) The blue hilight box is a holiday, SO NOTHING HAPPPENS for about 19 hours.
5) All signs point to 1950 on 12/30, 1970 maybe 01/03.
6) Links to previous work below for background. I also link 1G post for possibility of bear outcome, but its only suggestive, not predictive bc it is out-of-date.
Comment:
NOTES 3 - If you want to trace the the wave movement:
1) Get IRL from my scripts page.
2) DX/DY is 27/32, 90 min bars, zoomable to 11-min, 22-min, 45-min, 90-min, 3H, 6H, 12H, D, 2D so on...
3) Extension waves are:
a) blue 6.75
b) red 13.5
c) dark gray 27
d) navy 54
1) Get IRL from my scripts page.
2) DX/DY is 27/32, 90 min bars, zoomable to 11-min, 22-min, 45-min, 90-min, 3H, 6H, 12H, D, 2D so on...
3) Extension waves are:
a) blue 6.75
b) red 13.5
c) dark gray 27
d) navy 54
Comment:
NOTES 4 - SUPER IMPORTANT!! THIS CHART NOT GOOD PAST 12/28
1) this chart needs blanks for 12/26 AND 01/02
2) they are both holidays
3) this will mess with the forecasted curves in the following ways:
a) high for 12/30 looks like 1900, 01 0/3 would be 1910
b) this would put 1950 into 01/09-01/10
c) this is a really annoying development
d we will see, 1 day at a time.
1) this chart needs blanks for 12/26 AND 01/02
2) they are both holidays
3) this will mess with the forecasted curves in the following ways:
a) high for 12/30 looks like 1900, 01 0/3 would be 1910
b) this would put 1950 into 01/09-01/10
c) this is a really annoying development
d we will see, 1 day at a time.
Comment:
NOTES 5 - Rough draft of 3.4 adjusting all curves for 2 holidays:
Comment:
NOTES 6 - LETS JUST WAIT TO 12/21.
1. The math is too complicated to do.
2. Would only be worth doing if the setup is set to go.
1. The math is too complicated to do.
2. Would only be worth doing if the setup is set to go.
Comment:
3. In theory, it should same path, not different, just use blanks for that time out, which should be 19 hours for both of those days.
4. In practice, it could cause an In between check down that or may not be important depending on strength of 1 way vol.
5. So we wait til 12/21 for evidence of no shenanigans, with 1763 floor.
4. In practice, it could cause an In between check down that or may not be important depending on strength of 1 way vol.
5. So we wait til 12/21 for evidence of no shenanigans, with 1763 floor.
Comment:
NOTES 7 - GOOD NEWS.
1. The adjustments I made for 12/26 holiday prior to posting are good for targets, but curves will be a bit off.
2. That means this post is good at least TO BUT NOT THROUGH THURSDAY 12/29.
3. So the 1910 TARGET SHOULD HIT ON TUESDAY 12/27 OR WED 12/28 IF LATE.
4. There are 3 questions left:
A) should 1860 HOLD ON THE RETRACE? (not sure, but legit possible)
B) if not, HOW MUCH LOWER? (looks like 1825-1835)
C) when will 1950-1970 hit? (NOT later than FRIDAY 01/06, COULD STILL HIT 12/30, but this requires that 1910 HIT TUESDAY 12/27 or before)
5. So from where I am standing this post (3.3) doesnt need an update until we get through TUESDAY 12/27.
1. The adjustments I made for 12/26 holiday prior to posting are good for targets, but curves will be a bit off.
2. That means this post is good at least TO BUT NOT THROUGH THURSDAY 12/29.
3. So the 1910 TARGET SHOULD HIT ON TUESDAY 12/27 OR WED 12/28 IF LATE.
4. There are 3 questions left:
A) should 1860 HOLD ON THE RETRACE? (not sure, but legit possible)
B) if not, HOW MUCH LOWER? (looks like 1825-1835)
C) when will 1950-1970 hit? (NOT later than FRIDAY 01/06, COULD STILL HIT 12/30, but this requires that 1910 HIT TUESDAY 12/27 or before)
5. So from where I am standing this post (3.3) doesnt need an update until we get through TUESDAY 12/27.
Comment:
NOTES 8 - While replying to someone in the comments on fundamentals, I thought I should post this here too. This reflects my notes earlier that price HAS TO FOLLOW BULL PATH TO HOLD THE ODDS. While I expect it to, I will change forecast should that be the case:
Comment:
For chart above:
1) the move to 1805-10, maybe as high as 1820 is due by Monday morning at U.S. OPEN
2) while there 2 windows to make the move, the first circle move is highly probability one
3) if it follows blue path to a tee, then we will deal with that on Tuesday 12/20
1) the move to 1805-10, maybe as high as 1820 is due by Monday morning at U.S. OPEN
2) while there 2 windows to make the move, the first circle move is highly probability one
3) if it follows blue path to a tee, then we will deal with that on Tuesday 12/20
Comment:
NOTES 9 - chart below is wave action for current bull outcome:
Comment:
NOTES 10 - bear outcome right close to 1 in 6, we will cross that bridge if and when
Comment:
NOTES 11 - I am uneasy bc we are still under 1800, so here are some thoughts:
1. It's 1794-95 as I post this.
2. We need to be 1805-1810 as NY opens.
3. If we are not, that opens the door for other outcomes.
4. The most likely bearish outcome doesnt have value until 12.27 and later.
5. I am not concerned with that right now.
6. It's the "in-betweeners" that's stumping me right now, they are convoluted and seem to go nowhere.
7. That's it for now.
1. It's 1794-95 as I post this.
2. We need to be 1805-1810 as NY opens.
3. If we are not, that opens the door for other outcomes.
4. The most likely bearish outcome doesnt have value until 12.27 and later.
5. I am not concerned with that right now.
6. It's the "in-betweeners" that's stumping me right now, they are convoluted and seem to go nowhere.
7. That's it for now.
Comment:
END OF POST, HERE IS 3.5:
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Related Ideas
7) Covering the short from Jan 6th would be TOP OF THE 4TH ELLIPSE.
8) If you replay PART 3, and PART 3.2, price has been underwhelming.
9) So it NEEDS TO BE STRONGER THAN those forecasts for next 7 days to keep everything under 36 days-period in order.
10) That is to say everything from 36-day to 567 day is in position for this move.
11) Everything under 36-day needs to STAY IN POSITION.
12) It can do that BY FOLLOWING HILIGHT OR LEADING IT.
13) On 12/23 would be RUNAWAY MOMENTUM.