MQP PRESENTS - MY AMERICAN DREAM PART 1G, TRADE EXECUTION
HEADER - This is what happens when I put "1F" through reconciliation of all waves through multiple ratios and settings of PIRL, IRL, and IRT (wave tracer).
SUMMARY - So all of "PART 1" is focused on "THE REAL PIVOT", hence its title. In 1B, I charted generic 65-day chart, 1C was detailed 65-day chart, 1D was where I saw the binary nature of mid-January, 1E was where I had enough conviction for the short, 1F was the "CHEAT SHEET" for the trade (which should hit beat for beat until 01/04, and finally this is 1G, after breaking down all of the blind spots from 1F.
DETAILS - Please read prior posts in links below for background. In the notes from 1F, I broke down step by step how we got here (from 9/8 ratio example). After doing that for multiple ratios and settings, I confirmed this is the favorite (which is spike down and spike back up). From now to 12/21, I will posts notes on trade execution reflecting the chart above. Until then, this chart should be strong for 60 days (through 01/23 roughly).
SUMMARY - So all of "PART 1" is focused on "THE REAL PIVOT", hence its title. In 1B, I charted generic 65-day chart, 1C was detailed 65-day chart, 1D was where I saw the binary nature of mid-January, 1E was where I had enough conviction for the short, 1F was the "CHEAT SHEET" for the trade (which should hit beat for beat until 01/04, and finally this is 1G, after breaking down all of the blind spots from 1F.
DETAILS - Please read prior posts in links below for background. In the notes from 1F, I broke down step by step how we got here (from 9/8 ratio example). After doing that for multiple ratios and settings, I confirmed this is the favorite (which is spike down and spike back up). From now to 12/21, I will posts notes on trade execution reflecting the chart above. Until then, this chart should be strong for 60 days (through 01/23 roughly).
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8. VERY IMPORTANT LAST NOTE TODAY: it's the small black boxes that matter the most in terms of guide. That means that we ENTER THE SHORT at end of 6th black box or start of 7th black box. WE COVER THE SHORT at end of 9th black box. All of this is inside THE BLUE HIGHLIGHTED BOX.
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9. MINOR ERROR!! THE GUIDELINES AND RATIO ARE WRONG!! BOXES ARE RIGHT.
10. WILL REPUBLISH WITH CORRECT GUIDES.
10. WILL REPUBLISH WITH CORRECT GUIDES.
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12/1 8:49 UPDATE, MOVING UP LATE OR EARLY? NOT COMPLETELY SURE. FIRST SOME NOTES:
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1. For chart above, that's 10000 2-HOUR bars. Bear with me as I post a few more.
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2. For chart above. That is 10k 4-hour bars. Two things are obvious. We are moving up now, and the first mini resistance is 1875, but it's not real resistance.
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3. For chart above: See that really dark compression at the bottom? First things first, in each chart I use the same delta per line. Meaning that compression is real at 1615 support. Why didn't I bring this up before. I have used them before in "momentum channel" research, but I misunderstood some elements that I now have strong use for.
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4: For chart above: That is 5-day about the same as 1 week bar. I use IDC XAUUSD because it has longest history and divisible bar count w/ exception to bars 12h and under by GC1! ticker (futures). But I will explain notes above 1 through 7 after I get a 2-day bar up.
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5: For chart above: first though, here is long view for 75 years or so of good bar count. What I am trying to point out here, I can get the same, but better info on 2-day bar.
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5b: it goes w/o saying that my current draft IS TOO SLOW.
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5c: there are obviously 2 intermdediate outcome, first less obvious is a bigger A-B-C of a giant C WAVE, the second less obivous is that THIS IS THE PIVOT
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5d: let me say that silver and GDX positioning "are both PIVOT IS IN", I am in that camp too, just didn't expect it so fast (especially when it stopped at compression while still in "RUMORS OF A PIVOT" series
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6. For chart above, 2-day bar since 2010. Let's agree on 3 things first. At "1 - ALL TIME" is all time support currently at 1450. Which means in all extrapolations of next 24 months should hold if we ever get that low. At "2 - 2011 6K DOWN, ESP 1820-1860", that's the turn wave created by the high from 2011, but honestly since 2013 breakdown. And "3 - ... let's get a better shot:
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7. Here is localized 2-day bar. Wait, what I meant by "6K DOWN" is 6000 days. It's my marker for that chart.
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7 was for chart above:
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8. For chart above, 1-day bar 6000 bars roughly. So we can get some clarity. So that means 1820s will stall and 1860 will should hold, at least on first try.
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8b. "At 3- 2016 3K UP", is wave turn at 3000 bars. 9300 TX are markers for specific IRL crossover turns. The area between 2 and 3 is ultimately the decision for gold bull or gold bear for the next 40 months.
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8c. At "4- CURRENT 648-DAY 900 LIVE..." is the area I showed in 2-hour and 4-hour breakdown. The breaking of 1777 decisively today is obvious. This is also the wave markers for the next 7 months of price action. It determines how fast we move up. Right now, if we hit 1860 in December, and it, ALL TIME HIGHS ARE APRIL TARGETS.
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8D. At "5 -..." was trying show show 1685 wasn't that big of a deal, 1610 IS THE REAL SUPPORT".
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8E. Also at "4 -..." the area between 1640 and 1735 moves IS THE AREA WHERE PRICE MOVES REALLY FAST BC/ OF WEAK COMPRESSION.
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8F. Notes for "6 - ..." is the last ceiling" but "7 - ..." is the the LAST PAUSE OR REST STOP BEFORE FINAL BREAK OUT."
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9. For chart above, going forward I will use those 5 lines above as markers for other charts. But in order to make forecast charts easy to understand I will use skinny dotted lines against a standard wave DX/DY. That will be ratio 9/8, for IRL Tradingview edition (from my scripts page). It will look like this next chart which IS SUPER IMPORTANT FOR NEXT 7 MONTHS!!
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10. FOR CHART ABOVE:
1. You need to understand this chart. It will be the only "standards" I use going forward. This is 12-hour bar for IRL ratio 9/8. All "extension lines" AND THEIR COLORS will be based on this setting. This means that even if I zoom in or zoom out and waves for IRL change colors, my extensions will not.
2. The periods for extensions are: blue 72, red 144, light gray 216, dark gray 288, the three skinny blue lines are 360, 432, and 504, navy is 576, the skinny orange line is 648 marked by the low oval. The high oval is 2X that, so 1296. I didn't make a line for it b/c it's the area beween 576 and 648 that matters to our planning. Bold orange is 1152 and gray is 2304.
3. These settings are based on trading days of 100 live days. For whatever reasons, it works best for gold forecasting.
4. So the periods I noted are counts for:
100 would be 72
200 - 144
300 - 216
400 - 288
500 - 360
600 - 432
700 - 504
800 - 576
900 - 648
1000 is the MAY-JUNE BREAK OUT AT 720.
1. You need to understand this chart. It will be the only "standards" I use going forward. This is 12-hour bar for IRL ratio 9/8. All "extension lines" AND THEIR COLORS will be based on this setting. This means that even if I zoom in or zoom out and waves for IRL change colors, my extensions will not.
2. The periods for extensions are: blue 72, red 144, light gray 216, dark gray 288, the three skinny blue lines are 360, 432, and 504, navy is 576, the skinny orange line is 648 marked by the low oval. The high oval is 2X that, so 1296. I didn't make a line for it b/c it's the area beween 576 and 648 that matters to our planning. Bold orange is 1152 and gray is 2304.
3. These settings are based on trading days of 100 live days. For whatever reasons, it works best for gold forecasting.
4. So the periods I noted are counts for:
100 would be 72
200 - 144
300 - 216
400 - 288
500 - 360
600 - 432
700 - 504
800 - 576
900 - 648
1000 is the MAY-JUNE BREAK OUT AT 720.
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5. Continuing, the crown lines point to each of those lines from 100 to 900 or 72 to 648. We already did 72 (100) and 144 (200). We are working 216 (300), this part is very tricky because it's too early for 216 (300). Here is 1 cool chart:
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FOR CHART ABOVE:
1. So we already did blue (72) and red (144). IRL (TD edition) is always 2x, so each wave is 2X the smaller one. I don't have a "bold line for 216 b/c it's a half way.
2. So since it's 8 sections, it would be the fourth line in either direction for the midway period. In this case I highlighted the "TURNING OF 216 with full break down above.
3. First, 216 IS THE LAST RALLY UNTIL MID FEB, ABOUT 2/20.
4. WHY? BC OF THE SPACING OF EACH SECTION.
4b. So 72 and 144 was very close to each other (hence the hard spike forecast in "RUMORS PART 2".
4c. But there are 3 reasons why why didn't continue immediately in order of importance:
4c-1. the organization of 144 and all short periods are IMPERFECT, meaning out of order and not stacked in order, if they were they would break the area in:
4c-2. the compression area between 1740-1780 shown in gray charts above (especially 2hour and 4 hour), this slowed down the move but only if the lines are not in order or I define as "lack of uniform confidence of market players", and finally..
4c-3. there is MUCH MORE SPACING BETWEEN 144 AND 26 THEN THERE IS BETWEEN 72 AND 144 EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE THE IDENTICAL DELTA FROM EACH OTHER
5. I wrote all of 4 to say that 216 IS THE LAST RALLY UNTIL FEBRUARY WHEN 288 TURNS. This I've known for quite sometime, but NOT WHY bc I misunderstood fine points in wave-tracer that I only understood literally in the last week.
1. So we already did blue (72) and red (144). IRL (TD edition) is always 2x, so each wave is 2X the smaller one. I don't have a "bold line for 216 b/c it's a half way.
2. So since it's 8 sections, it would be the fourth line in either direction for the midway period. In this case I highlighted the "TURNING OF 216 with full break down above.
3. First, 216 IS THE LAST RALLY UNTIL MID FEB, ABOUT 2/20.
4. WHY? BC OF THE SPACING OF EACH SECTION.
4b. So 72 and 144 was very close to each other (hence the hard spike forecast in "RUMORS PART 2".
4c. But there are 3 reasons why why didn't continue immediately in order of importance:
4c-1. the organization of 144 and all short periods are IMPERFECT, meaning out of order and not stacked in order, if they were they would break the area in:
4c-2. the compression area between 1740-1780 shown in gray charts above (especially 2hour and 4 hour), this slowed down the move but only if the lines are not in order or I define as "lack of uniform confidence of market players", and finally..
4c-3. there is MUCH MORE SPACING BETWEEN 144 AND 26 THEN THERE IS BETWEEN 72 AND 144 EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE THE IDENTICAL DELTA FROM EACH OTHER
5. I wrote all of 4 to say that 216 IS THE LAST RALLY UNTIL FEBRUARY WHEN 288 TURNS. This I've known for quite sometime, but NOT WHY bc I misunderstood fine points in wave-tracer that I only understood literally in the last week.
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6. In chart above with "GOING FORWARD, THIS IS THE LOOK". The spike crown is pointing at each of the markers for 72, 144.... to 648 trading days or 100, 200, ... to 900 live days.
7. The compression or SPACE BETWEEN 360, 432,504, 576, AND 648 (AND THEIR TURNING POINTS ARE ROUGHLY 2/20-4/20, 2023. So after we top in DECEMBER FOR 216,12/22 to 01/20 is the first retrace (dictated by that compression area noted above, either above or below we will know based on the top PRIOR TO 12/14 FOMC), 01/20 to 2/20 is sideways and, a MASSIVE RALLY from 02/20-04/20 that seals the deal.
7. The compression or SPACE BETWEEN 360, 432,504, 576, AND 648 (AND THEIR TURNING POINTS ARE ROUGHLY 2/20-4/20, 2023. So after we top in DECEMBER FOR 216,12/22 to 01/20 is the first retrace (dictated by that compression area noted above, either above or below we will know based on the top PRIOR TO 12/14 FOMC), 01/20 to 2/20 is sideways and, a MASSIVE RALLY from 02/20-04/20 that seals the deal.
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TYPO in 4c-3 ".... BETWEEN 144 AND 216..", NOT 26.
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8. What I've also learned finallly is why I had some amazing forecasts previously, they were all in momentum channels, but the definition of momentum channels is SO EXPLICIT bc it requires stacked curves that are so very in order. What this means is until we are at VERY SPECIFIC moments, the forecasting can only be "roughly" bc it's so dependent on periods between under 20 days of price action (basically you dont know until you know).
9. But I have suspected that for quite sometime, so my gear as has been "wait for the trade" as of 15 months ago. To sum it up:
A. this draft, 1G, is too slow and needs editting
B. going forward I will post less detailed drafts, but more often THAT ARE WAY MORE USEFUL until the trade is worth risking for
C. and the standards will be as I described just now in the chart above
9. But I have suspected that for quite sometime, so my gear as has been "wait for the trade" as of 15 months ago. To sum it up:
A. this draft, 1G, is too slow and needs editting
B. going forward I will post less detailed drafts, but more often THAT ARE WAY MORE USEFUL until the trade is worth risking for
C. and the standards will be as I described just now in the chart above
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FINALLY, I HAVE STARTED PART 2, PIVOT IS IN:
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Related Ideas
1) the blue box w/o highlight is the area BETWEEN FOMC AND FED MINUTES (12/14, 01/04)
2) the blue box WITH HIGHLIGHT represents TIME AND PRICE LIMITS OF OUR TRADE REGARDLESS OF PRICE ACTION IN LATE JANUARY
3) the two ellipses are the two waves that decide this out come, they are 108-day wave and 216-day wave
4) use IRL DX DY 54/32 for 1D, 12H, 6H, 3H, 90min, 45-min, 22-min, and 11-min bars
5) orange highlight path is favorite more than 2:1
6) blue hilight path is underdog
7) these two outcomes are at least 8 maybe 9 in 10 of all outcomes (from IRL probability point of view)