MQP PRESENTS - MY AMERICAN DREAM PART 2A, PIVOT IS IN
HEADER - Regressions say pivot is in in a big way.
SUMMARY - As I said this morning in 1G, less detail, more usefulness.
DETAILS - We are going to the first box where our plans for December-January short is still good, the levels though have changed. Please read previous links for background below ESPECIALLY THE LAST ONE, 1G. I will add notes later.
SUMMARY - As I said this morning in 1G, less detail, more usefulness.
DETAILS - We are going to the first box where our plans for December-January short is still good, the levels though have changed. Please read previous links for background below ESPECIALLY THE LAST ONE, 1G. I will add notes later.
Comment:
NOTES 2 - this is a supplement for this post:
Comment:
a. for supplement, this should be a really decent guide to the highs on 12/19-12/22
b. we entry short 12/22
c. we cover 12/30-01/02 (if 01/02 is holiday, then 01/03 would be cover)
d. with IRT as primary and IRL as secondary, this forecast puts the cover low on THE PM OF 12/29 OR THE AM OF 12/30
e. that drop seems really quick, this is where IRT disagrees with IRL as primary bc in that method, the low would be on 01/03-04
b. we entry short 12/22
c. we cover 12/30-01/02 (if 01/02 is holiday, then 01/03 would be cover)
d. with IRT as primary and IRL as secondary, this forecast puts the cover low on THE PM OF 12/29 OR THE AM OF 12/30
e. that drop seems really quick, this is where IRT disagrees with IRL as primary bc in that method, the low would be on 01/03-04
Comment:
NOTES 3 - first, the line I'm going to talk about in a little bit is THIS ONE:
Comment:
a. for chart above, that's support since 2019, got taken out in the summer where down side momentum was strong it seemed like going to 1400s was inevitable
b. now it's resistance, on top of that the line above it is 2011-2020 highs resistance
c. the small support that we have HAVE YET TO BE REALLY TESTED
d. from a classical perspective those are the trend lines in play
b. now it's resistance, on top of that the line above it is 2011-2020 highs resistance
c. the small support that we have HAVE YET TO BE REALLY TESTED
d. from a classical perspective those are the trend lines in play
Comment:
NOTES 4 - now consider this:
Comment:
a. the dotted lines are from discussion of regression compression ON AN ALL TIME BASIS in notes of 1G
b. resistance black line at top is from NOTES 3, right above here
c. so why can't we tag it in DECEMBER?
d. look at the background compression for first box at bottom left...
e. it's not as compressed as the two boxes above, meaning?
f. the absolute value of the slope of any move up has to decrease as price hits more compression
g. I already showed why 1860 is the current top from 1G notes and 2A notes on 6000 daily bars view of compression
h. now on a medium term basis for this 3-hour bar chart, you get a decent amount of 1860 zone compression ON TOP OF THAT
i. regressive curves from 20-35 days point at a "perfect short" situation for 45-50 day curves right at 12/22-12/26
j. for easy math, I chose 48, bc IRL divisible into 24, 12, 6, and 3
k. if you look at 12/23....
b. resistance black line at top is from NOTES 3, right above here
c. so why can't we tag it in DECEMBER?
d. look at the background compression for first box at bottom left...
e. it's not as compressed as the two boxes above, meaning?
f. the absolute value of the slope of any move up has to decrease as price hits more compression
g. I already showed why 1860 is the current top from 1G notes and 2A notes on 6000 daily bars view of compression
h. now on a medium term basis for this 3-hour bar chart, you get a decent amount of 1860 zone compression ON TOP OF THAT
i. regressive curves from 20-35 days point at a "perfect short" situation for 45-50 day curves right at 12/22-12/26
j. for easy math, I chose 48, bc IRL divisible into 24, 12, 6, and 3
k. if you look at 12/23....
Comment:
l. ... at the bold entry box, 12-24-48 are roughly in orde (imperfect) '
m. 6 period gets in order on Monday 12/26
n. and finally 3 period gets in order Tuesday or Wednesday 27-28
o. so on Wednesday morning we would still be 1820
p. but WHEN THIS FINALLY HAPPENS, periods from about 10 to 48 are in "true" line by line compression order top down, just waiting for 1-2-3-4-5-6 to get in order which automatically puts 7-8-9-19 in order
q. this is what I define as a "waterfall move" for "perfect short" and its inverse, perfect long
r. for this setup it would complete in 48 hours roughly from the break (I think Wenesday 12/28) and finish Thursday night or morning of Friday 12/30
s. that's what IRT-primary engine says in theory
t. the third box at top, way more "fine" compression, almost black on a 3-hour basis for 10k bars
u. "remember this for later" but when we break that in APRIL if early, June late, it will look much thinned out on the same 3-hour basis'
v. it just so happens that "that trend line" in NOTES 3 will have that cross-over in March
w. I think it gets tested upside in March, but FAIL ON THE FIRST TRY
m. 6 period gets in order on Monday 12/26
n. and finally 3 period gets in order Tuesday or Wednesday 27-28
o. so on Wednesday morning we would still be 1820
p. but WHEN THIS FINALLY HAPPENS, periods from about 10 to 48 are in "true" line by line compression order top down, just waiting for 1-2-3-4-5-6 to get in order which automatically puts 7-8-9-19 in order
q. this is what I define as a "waterfall move" for "perfect short" and its inverse, perfect long
r. for this setup it would complete in 48 hours roughly from the break (I think Wenesday 12/28) and finish Thursday night or morning of Friday 12/30
s. that's what IRT-primary engine says in theory
t. the third box at top, way more "fine" compression, almost black on a 3-hour basis for 10k bars
u. "remember this for later" but when we break that in APRIL if early, June late, it will look much thinned out on the same 3-hour basis'
v. it just so happens that "that trend line" in NOTES 3 will have that cross-over in March
w. I think it gets tested upside in March, but FAIL ON THE FIRST TRY
Comment:
NOTES 5 - to close the week...
Comment:
a. for chart above, 10k 15-min bars (reason I said in 2A supplement I would buy it if I'm trading the weekend
b. for 1783 entry odds of 1823 by Tuesday is better than 3 in 4 maybe in 4 in 5 with IRT-truly-line-by-line engine
c. we'll see about that next Tuesday
d. have a good weekend
TYPO, in NOTES 4 g. above,... notes in 1G AND 2A SUPPLEMENT (not 2A, this is 2A you are reading)
b. for 1783 entry odds of 1823 by Tuesday is better than 3 in 4 maybe in 4 in 5 with IRT-truly-line-by-line engine
c. we'll see about that next Tuesday
d. have a good weekend
TYPO, in NOTES 4 g. above,... notes in 1G AND 2A SUPPLEMENT (not 2A, this is 2A you are reading)
Comment:
NOTES 6 - on an intermediate basis:
Comment:
a. chart above needs to be cleaned up but the course of action is on time for current 6-mo plans
b. I will update the look of that wave limit curve (running with bold blue hand drawn) from time to time
c. we are finishing 216 as we speak, next up is 288 in february, then 360-432-504 and completing 576 wave turn successively APRIL
d. this is the same 576 wave discussed in PART 1 - THE REAL PIVOT SERIES
b. I will update the look of that wave limit curve (running with bold blue hand drawn) from time to time
c. we are finishing 216 as we speak, next up is 288 in february, then 360-432-504 and completing 576 wave turn successively APRIL
d. this is the same 576 wave discussed in PART 1 - THE REAL PIVOT SERIES
Comment:
NOTES 7 -- 12:25 AM MONDAY ET.
1. I just cleared up something major that's been bothering me.
2. In NOTES 4 above, I said it was a setup for 48 day-50 day perfect short.
3. That was the forecast for 2A supplement posted Friday.
4. Well the chart is still good. It's the labels that was wrong.
5. So it's going to be a 32-36 day perfect short.
6. Is that enough for that move?
7. Yes, because a 48-day perfect short in THIS SPECIFIC SETUP would lead to 1500s or even lower. before the New Year.
8. Just wanted to clear that up.
9. No changes in our plans or otherwise.
1. I just cleared up something major that's been bothering me.
2. In NOTES 4 above, I said it was a setup for 48 day-50 day perfect short.
3. That was the forecast for 2A supplement posted Friday.
4. Well the chart is still good. It's the labels that was wrong.
5. So it's going to be a 32-36 day perfect short.
6. Is that enough for that move?
7. Yes, because a 48-day perfect short in THIS SPECIFIC SETUP would lead to 1500s or even lower. before the New Year.
8. Just wanted to clear that up.
9. No changes in our plans or otherwise.
Comment:
NOTES 8 -- 9:40 AM TUESDAY ET - SOME FOOD FOR THOUGHT:
Comment:
Comment:
Comment:
Comment:
Comment:
Comment:
Comment:
AND HERE IS 2B:
Comment:
END OF POST
Related Ideas
a. blue vertical is FOMC
b. box to its left is the top
c. box to its right at dotted black vertical is entry SHORT
d. second box is cover
e. dashed black vertical is cover marker for first half and second half
f. odds favor us at left side of second box for trade cover
g. we are not interested in shorting right side of dashed black vertical...
h. that may change, but my instincts say to state that now