PRS LIVE TESTING TRADE OF THE YEAR (#3 & #4 FINAL UPDATE)
The last update I posted (SHORT ON TIME), I closed this morning.
My biggest issue was that I couldn't solve for a strange regression pattern I haven't seen before. After final edits of PIRL and PIVO, I solved for inconsistencies in PIVO readings. Somewhat by accident, I solved for this pattern. "Solved" implies that this projection should be stronger than all previous projections and for longer duration. Theory foundation for PRS is seriously challenged if this does not perform as expected.
Unlike previous ideas, I will not comment or update. I will just let it run out.
I've closed PRS #5 even though it was doing well because I don't want to deal with updating it. #6 and & #7 are short positions on ES and RTY. That will stay open through June unless other wise stated on those pages.
Have a good month. Hopefully see you in August.
My biggest issue was that I couldn't solve for a strange regression pattern I haven't seen before. After final edits of PIRL and PIVO, I solved for inconsistencies in PIVO readings. Somewhat by accident, I solved for this pattern. "Solved" implies that this projection should be stronger than all previous projections and for longer duration. Theory foundation for PRS is seriously challenged if this does not perform as expected.
Unlike previous ideas, I will not comment or update. I will just let it run out.
I've closed PRS #5 even though it was doing well because I don't want to deal with updating it. #6 and & #7 are short positions on ES and RTY. That will stay open through June unless other wise stated on those pages.
Have a good month. Hopefully see you in August.
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I mean to say, that last dream is so far half true. But half-truths are deceptive and misleading and ultimately unsatisfactory.
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A guy just asked me: "Weren't you 100% confident on bearish route yesterday?" Well, for sure. Now I'm 110% confident in this one. I'm confident in general. I just change my mind when it should be changed. Also known to have done it in other times as well. One day at a time.
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For the record, I closed the short idea in the morning before it even had a chance to start.
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Somebody just told me: trade of the year looks just like trade of the summer.
True. But you've never seen one movie win 2 different oscars? Personally, I don't watch award shows.
True. But you've never seen one movie win 2 different oscars? Personally, I don't watch award shows.
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Im giving it that title bc I have conviction. Even in the blank bubble in August.
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Last non comment comment: I really dont like to project strong moves in July. So I had to prove that we were at a point that similar to 1978 and I did with full count regression. I still cannot find a similar in move in 72 day regressions but proofed it with 216 regression (72x3). Am I trying to force a conclusion? No, POVI uses 45 shorts and 45 longs to produce 45 volume oscilators thay make up 6 waves. I have had problems with it strongly disagreeing with itself before by switching bar size. I elimated that disagreement by customizing it for each individual bar size. All bases have beem covered from a technical stand point.
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FOR THE RECORD: This one looks prescient, yes. But outdated.
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FOR THE RECORD: Not too shabby huh? Click the replay.
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FOR THE RECORD: This was top 3 for me. Why? BC PRS generated SEPARATE ROUTES FOR XAUUSD AND GC1!, so I posted them both w/ different expirations. Both were slamdunk!
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FOR THE RECORD: Decent for a rough draft. Admittedly better than final draft.
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FOR THE RECORD: First bubble test now looks great.
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FOR THE RECORD: Go to these things and hit replay. I swear you will not be disappointed. This the the original "The Ending."
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FOR THE RECORD: Remember Slow Motion Crash? 1 bad week, but still kicking ass.
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FOR THE RECORD: Nailed the first leg working on the second. (This is closed though, I"m not updating.)
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FOR THE RECORD: Nailed gold and silver simultaneously. (Somebody pay me and I'll do this all day).
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For the record: Trading guide not a really good idea, because specifics are specifics and cannot be specificated that far out. That said look at the curve!!
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FOR THE RECORD: Remember that Shaniah song? You're still the one I want? This is my first article, the originial GOLD CRASH!! To this day my favorite call. Because nobody call this move like this. NOBODY. I got laughed at in my face by people who have never traded and people who have traded 20 years, simultaneously. This one held pretty strong until the rally.
www.tradingview.com/...eEJ9ylK9-GOLD-CRASH/
Before which I posted this:
www.tradingview.com/...eEJ9ylK9-GOLD-CRASH/
Before which I posted this:
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Which got half the way up. At that point much of this was still under development so I wasn't updating all the time like I am now.
www.tradingview.com/...-1630-KISS-OF-DEATH/
www.tradingview.com/...-1630-KISS-OF-DEATH/
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So I feel pretty strongly about this one bc it takes a really unique point of view and specific methodology to call July like this. The distinct parts of this call:
1. Rally in July.
2. New all time high in July.
3. Specifically 1960 for XAUUSD, so GC1! probably pushing 2K.
4. The 3 step up.
5. In 19 trading days.
6. The strong correction before 8/10.
That's all. Hope you guys have found the work somewhat useful.
1. Rally in July.
2. New all time high in July.
3. Specifically 1960 for XAUUSD, so GC1! probably pushing 2K.
4. The 3 step up.
5. In 19 trading days.
6. The strong correction before 8/10.
That's all. Hope you guys have found the work somewhat useful.
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Some one just asked for "an example of a bottoms up" full count for this move. If I have time. And right now the clock is tick tick tick... so another time.
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FOR THE RECORD: PRS ABSOLUTELY CRUSHING BOTH RTY AND ES PROJECTIONS.
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If ES and RTY shorts close now, 11:28 AM CT 6/24/20: SCORE 43/50
If right now PRS LIVE TESTING is scoring 43 out of 50 pts. Wins #2, 5, 6, 7. For #1 PRS scored 3 out of 10 pts for reccommending the straddle. And 4 has not started bc too early for entry for 3 (previous idea canceled Tuesday morning).
If right now PRS LIVE TESTING is scoring 43 out of 50 pts. Wins #2, 5, 6, 7. For #1 PRS scored 3 out of 10 pts for reccommending the straddle. And 4 has not started bc too early for entry for 3 (previous idea canceled Tuesday morning).
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As of 10:37 AM Wednesday, 6/26, this map is losing its favorite position vs this map:
Why? Because the curves keep staying true to that trading guide. But more importantly, my re-wired POVI is doing amazing things in equity futures and it puts odds of a new high before 1740 at 45%. So the trading guide, despite being produced on older/weaker software, is still killing it based on price regressions alone.
I did say I wouldn't comment on any more changes, but it is interesting to watch which route it will take.
There's not really THAT much variation between the two from a 30 DAY perspective except for the high. The call for July high was 1875 vs 1955 averaging 1915. Gold's ATH in 2011 was 1910 ish.
Why? Because the curves keep staying true to that trading guide. But more importantly, my re-wired POVI is doing amazing things in equity futures and it puts odds of a new high before 1740 at 45%. So the trading guide, despite being produced on older/weaker software, is still killing it based on price regressions alone.
I did say I wouldn't comment on any more changes, but it is interesting to watch which route it will take.
There's not really THAT much variation between the two from a 30 DAY perspective except for the high. The call for July high was 1875 vs 1955 averaging 1915. Gold's ATH in 2011 was 1910 ish.
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Honestly that trading guide posted right above IS ABSOLUTELY CRUSHING IT. From a week out that's impressive in the turns it's getting.
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Friday morning.
Again these two routes are essentially the same on a daily or weekly chart. I'm just trying to see if it's possible tor map prices more closely, or spefically?
Again these two routes are essentially the same on a daily or weekly chart. I'm just trying to see if it's possible tor map prices more closely, or spefically?
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specifically ... that's the word.
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Friday 12:40 PM. the trading guide is only going to hold for so long, especially with trend past July 2nd. My thoughts are as we get to middle of next week, this idea (this page) will take over from an odds perspective. Will deal with that then.
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THIS IS THE MOST CURRENT MAP:
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6/30 11:10 VERY EARLY BREAKOUT. BUT IN EXPLOSIVE RALLIES, ANY BREAK OUT IS MONEY GOOD.
Hehe... except for that last drive to 1955. Anyway, I will tell you I didnt believe it until 1781. Because its a VERY aggressive move. That said how to play this: Get long NOW.
Sell 2/3 at 1825, by early next week. Im thinking Monday bc its so aggressive. Figure out rest later.
If you dont mind holding for WEEKS, then set it and forget it. Check at 7/20.
Hehe... except for that last drive to 1955. Anyway, I will tell you I didnt believe it until 1781. Because its a VERY aggressive move. That said how to play this: Get long NOW.
Sell 2/3 at 1825, by early next week. Im thinking Monday bc its so aggressive. Figure out rest later.
If you dont mind holding for WEEKS, then set it and forget it. Check at 7/20.
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I hate over trading massive break outs. So if you have a problem making up your mind. Just ignore the vol and check back 7/20.
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The most recentap posted above has expired. GOLD iS TAKING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE ROUTE TO JULY 20TH. THIS MAKES 1970 A POSSIBILITY FOR XAUUSD AND 2000 A POSSIBILITY FOR GC1!.
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Meanwhile this idea (this page) is now the most current 6/30/. And its still ALMOST too slow. For now it will seem that way. At mid July it will catch up.
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6:23 PM 6/30/20
SO I WANT TO BE CLEAR ABOUT THIS:
If you look through previous ideas I posted, you will find this rally being picked up on 6/19 with a 1920 high. There were several version of this rally charted afterwards 1875 (called TRADE OF THE SUMMER) to 1955 (THIS ONE YOU ARE READING)
If you read the comments section below, I noted on 6/24 that my math came out to 1970 but I dumbed it down. Why? Because each time I try to present the idea, "expert and experienced traders" called me these names for suggesting anything above 1820 by 7/20: a fool, no common sense, outrageous, self appreciating jerk.
So for some reason if THEY ARE NOT EXPECTING A 9% RALLY IN JULY, that makes me an idiot.
Well clock is ticking.
SO I WANT TO BE CLEAR ABOUT THIS:
If you look through previous ideas I posted, you will find this rally being picked up on 6/19 with a 1920 high. There were several version of this rally charted afterwards 1875 (called TRADE OF THE SUMMER) to 1955 (THIS ONE YOU ARE READING)
If you read the comments section below, I noted on 6/24 that my math came out to 1970 but I dumbed it down. Why? Because each time I try to present the idea, "expert and experienced traders" called me these names for suggesting anything above 1820 by 7/20: a fool, no common sense, outrageous, self appreciating jerk.
So for some reason if THEY ARE NOT EXPECTING A 9% RALLY IN JULY, that makes me an idiot.
Well clock is ticking.
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This break out has eyes squarely on 1955. So I wouldnt be surprised if it really did hit 1970.
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So the point is why 1950i-sh and why July 20th. lf you think I sat there and just made up targets, THATS NOT HOW THIS WORKS. I keep bringing up my first idea call for this reason, its not accident. I developed a process for this. I will say that the last 4 weeks my strategy has been refined a great deal compared to months ago.
I made many mistakes along the way, but if you've been following you probably noticed it has improved a great deal. Like I said before, EVERYBODY KNOWS gold is going to ATH. Question is WHEN. I have had PHDS, MONEY MANAGERS, even a well known Elliotician told me: IT CANT BE TIMED.
I'm not going to say I have proven that IT CAN BE TIMED, but look through my work and you will start to agree I AM VERY CLOSE TO SOMETHING.
My #1 worry is not even this idea, which I expect to nail by 7/20, maybe 7/16. Crypto market is like Kryptonite for me. And yet, I've staked my reputation on the bitcoin call without having any success in forecasting that market before. I worry the most because I'm out of ideas to improve upon the crypto configuration for PRS.
I made many mistakes along the way, but if you've been following you probably noticed it has improved a great deal. Like I said before, EVERYBODY KNOWS gold is going to ATH. Question is WHEN. I have had PHDS, MONEY MANAGERS, even a well known Elliotician told me: IT CANT BE TIMED.
I'm not going to say I have proven that IT CAN BE TIMED, but look through my work and you will start to agree I AM VERY CLOSE TO SOMETHING.
My #1 worry is not even this idea, which I expect to nail by 7/20, maybe 7/16. Crypto market is like Kryptonite for me. And yet, I've staked my reputation on the bitcoin call without having any success in forecasting that market before. I worry the most because I'm out of ideas to improve upon the crypto configuration for PRS.
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Thats not completely true. I have 1 idea for crypto confguration for PRS. The problem with the idea is I can't explain its logic, so I've ignored it for now. Ive seen it perform above average, but the second problem with it is crypto's short history. Cant explain it, cant really confirm it, but THERE IS A ROUTE to reverse engineer it.
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IMPORTANT: GOLD SHOULD MOVE UP 30$ IN 30 HOURS ALA 1815 BY 3AM THURSDAY.
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IMPORTANT, NOT ATTEMPTING TO MAP IT. JUST INTENDING TO HOLD THRU 7/17.
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Tuesday night or Wednesday morning: SOME INTERESTING EVIDENCE.
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I mean 1/3 of the process, I am not saying that 1 regression fractal is 1/3 the evidence. Confirming multiple regression fractal is a crucial part of giant intermediate swings.
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7/1 9:30 AM HOLD YOUR LONGS AND DOUBLE DOWN HERE. DONT WALK FROM THIS TRADE. IF YOU ONLY LISTEN TO ME ONCE, LISTEN HERE. THIS SELL OFF NOWHERE CLOSE TO CHANGING THE MOMENTUM. I TRIPPLED MY POSITIONS HERE.
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7/01 11:30 THIS IS THE PERFECT ENTRY FOR PRS LIVE TESTING TRADE #3.
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Q: DOES TODAYS CORRECTION FORCES CHANGE OF TARGETS?
A: NO. 1955, 7/20 DOES NOT CHANGE. BUT ROUTE THERE IS GOING TO TO SUPRISE.
For example: if it didnt correct so deep, I woulde see us running to 1820s or 1830s before slowing down. In this case, its like a rubber band. The swing back up will be faster and higher.
A: NO. 1955, 7/20 DOES NOT CHANGE. BUT ROUTE THERE IS GOING TO TO SUPRISE.
For example: if it didnt correct so deep, I woulde see us running to 1820s or 1830s before slowing down. In this case, its like a rubber band. The swing back up will be faster and higher.
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That said here is the latest route.
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HERE IS COMPLETELY UPDATED MAP:
