Gold is going to the moon or will crash below the earth?

FX_IDC:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar

Please, note-We are still holding our short position both in gold (entered at $1530) and silver (entered at $19) as we could witness the very severe breakdown within the precious metal sector in the upcoming days and months which would ultimately make our positions more profitable. In order to secure our profit We have moved our stop loss in Gold at $1503 and In silver at $18.

- Gold prices are trading near steady in midday U.S. trading Monday. Gold and silver traders are awaiting a fresh fundamental spark to help drive prices. U.S. economic data was scant on Monday but the report tempo rapidly picks up speed beginning Tuesday. February gold futures were last down $0.10 an ounce at 1,465.00. March Comex silver prices were last up $0.064 at $16.66 an ounce.

The world marketplace is seeing just a bit of risk aversion to start the trading week, following weaker economic data coming out of China, the world’s second-largest economy. China’s exports fell 1.1% in November, year-on-year, including shipments to the U.S. declining 23% in the period. China’s exports were seen up 1.0% in November. Imports were up 0.3% in the same period, and were expected to be unchanged.

The U.S. economic highlight of the week is the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee meeting (FOMC) that begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement. The Fed is expected to make no changes in its monetary policy . The European Central Bank also meets on monetary policy Thursday.

Technically, February gold futures bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field amid recent choppy and sideways trading. Gold bulls' next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $1,489.90. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at the November low of $1,453.10. First resistance is seen at $1,475.00 and then at $1,480.00. First support is seen at $1,456.60 and then at the November low of $1,453.10,

ok now let's analyze what smart money is doing within the sector,Large speculators added to their bullish posture in gold during the most recent reporting week based on positioning data compiled by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

During the week-long period to Dec. 3 covered by the report, Comex February gold rose $17 to $1,484.40 an ounce, while March silver added 6 cents to $17.248.

Net long or short positioning in the CFTC data reflect the difference between the total number of bullish (long) and bearish (short) contracts. Traders monitor the data to gauge the general mood of speculators, although excessively high or low numbers are viewed by many as signs of overbought or oversold markets that may be ripe for price corrections.

The disaggregated report shows that in the week to Dec. 3, money managers’ net-long position rose to 207,962 futures contracts from 194,287 the week before. This was due to fresh buying, as the number of longs increased by 13,552. Gross shorts fell by 123.
However, analysts at Commerzbank noted that some speculators are likely to offset their positions Friday after a stronger-than-forecast U.S. jobs report – with a 266,000 rise in November nonfarm payrolls – helped U.S. equities and the dollar, undermining gold .

In the case of silver , money managers’ net-long position fell to 44,173 futures contracts from 48,139 the prior week. The decline came about from both long liquidation (gross longs fell by 2,565 lots) and fresh selling (total shorts rose by 1,401).

Summary.We are witnessing sideways movement In the Gold and silver prices over the past week. Technical chart and Economic indicators are giving a mixed picture however leaning more towards the bearish camp but we are taking caution as we haven't seen a breakdown within the precious metal sector even when Major U.S stock indices are making all-time highs every day along with the building permits beating expectations. We still believe that a major breakdown within the precious metal sector is yet to be seen however In order to secure our profit We have moved our stop loss in Gold at $1503 and In silver at $18.

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