ABOUT TIME MQP MAKES YOU REAL MONEY AGAIN - DRAFT 2

HEADER - This draft readjusts for the "AVERAGE OF EVERYTHING DRAFT 5-5" route playing out until now.

SUMMARY - My data says DRAFT 5-5 is dead as of right now (2:03 PM ET 3/28). This draft takes over from here on out.

CALENDAR - Vertical lines with labels are important dates in this window to be aware of.

STRATEGY - Has not changed. Entry long end of day on 4/06/23 if you can't trade 23 hours a day. If you can, entry long around 5 AM ET roughly 2 hours ahead of March NFP report which is released on 04/07/23. First exit is 2070 around 4/12/23.

DETAILS - See previous drafts for background.

NOTES 1 - I put the channels back in.
a) so dotted lines are long channels
b) dashed lines are intermediate channels

NOTES 2 - My trade is long 4/06 to 4/13, then long again to 04/20 after first retrace.
a) until then there are 3 or for different combinations of daily price action ahead of 4/06
b) so while this is the most likely route to 04/06, it DOES NOT HAVE TO GO THIS ROUTE

NOTES 3 - Dealbreaker?
a) if price drops under 1925 in 3 days and KEEPS ON DROPPING precipitously
b) and that's not even a 50:1 right now (from regression point of view)

NOTES 4 - Silver confirmation.
a) everything I've looked in silver say it's almost ready
b) starting 4/06/23, I expect silver to outperform through the end of 2025 (minus volatility adjustments)
c) meaning if gold goes up 10% and drops 3% (+7) while silver goes up 20% and drops 6% (+14) ...
f) silver IS STILL STRONGER adjusted for volatility

Comment:

NOTES 5 - To sum up last 2 days of action:
a) so the retrace down started to look like AVERAGE OF EVERYTHING DRAFT 5-5
b) but that really should stop now based on the latest numbers
c) however, even if were to continue, I STILL EXPECT A RUN TO 2160 INSTEAD OF 2200

Comment:

NOTES 6 - here is 4-day bar view again, I had the IRT order in reverse

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NOTES 7 - so 12-hour bar looks like this:

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NOTES 8 - so then 90 min bar looks like this, the arrow is the deal-breaker price action:

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NOTES 9 - here is what I meant by "KEEP ON DROPPING"

Comment:

a) for chart above:
b) here are the bollingers that are "in play for this window"
c) what does that mean?
e) that means if bears take over...
f) they HAVE TO BREAK UNDER 1920 REALLY HARD
g) bc if they don't, swing price action following the black dashed line..
h) WOULD STILL PUT US BACK IN THE SAME SETUP WHILE....
i) readjusting all short term waves to fit the blast off

Comment:

j) but this route is a heavy under dog to the route...
k) I posted for this draft way at top
l) I will say this much,
m) I can't make a better recommendation than this trade
n) assuming we make it to 4/06 without deal-breaker price action

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NOTES 10 - 12:00 NOON ET, 3/29 UPDATE

Comment:

a) for chart above:
b) so I put this zone between NOW AND 4/7 NFP in bold box
c) and then there are two routes orange and blue
d) orange is remainder of what I see as likely
e) blue is remainder of AVERAGE EVERYTHING DRAFT 5-5
f) they are basically inverses of each other for this time frame
g) for whatever reasons, it keeps following the less likely route to 4/6-4/7 entry date
h) what does that mean for us here?
i) for price action from 4/06 to 4/13, no change
j) for price action from 4/13 to 4/20, there is 2 minor diferrences
k) first, the ceiling has dropped again to 2145-ish (orginally 2200)
l) second that 2145 should hit around 4/17 and reverse down quick to 2045
m) like this:

Comment:

Comment:

n) continuing, with that said, vol will continue to drop towards 4/7 like a flag like this:

Comment:

o) for chart above:
p) the remaining price action until then is unlikely to change this outcome any further absent...
q) A BREAK OF THAT FLAG IN EITHER DIRECTION
s) regressions say not going to happen so..
t) we don't need another DRAFT UNTIL 4/6
u) that's all....

Comment:

v) except one more thing
w) this change makes the 2145 target pretty good value short from...
x) where we stand RIGHT NOW...
y) for example: short 4/17 at 2145 and cover 4/20 at 2045

Comment:

10:42 AM ET 3/30 - THIS POST HAS ENDED. HERE IS DRAFT 3: