2150 BY 03/08/24 DRAFT 1
Introduction - Trend engine says this is going to happen. Except we don't know what happens in the box. While I work on that this is draft 1.
Details - Will add as we go.
Details - Will add as we go.
Comment:
d) bc what usually happens with this pattern is this:
Comment:
e) for chart above, it's very unusual for this pattern to resolve this way, and why?
f) bc:
f) bc:
Comment:
Comment:
g) the obvious bull route is like blue route above
h) so the resolution in gray IS SUPER RARE in this pattern
i) this is why it makes this box so difficult to map:
h) so the resolution in gray IS SUPER RARE in this pattern
i) this is why it makes this box so difficult to map:
Comment:
Comment:
j) so how will we figure that out?
k) with 4-min bar charts
k) with 4-min bar charts
Comment:
Comment:
7:39 PM ET, NOW ON DRAFT 2:
Comment:
03/01/ 10:59 AM ET 2069.XX -- CONTINUING FROM DRAFT 4
a) why?
b) bc IF WE CLOSE STRONG, if if if if if if if....
c) the CURVES WILL SHIFT UP!!
d) making DRAFT 1's 2150 target possible
e) BUT STILL A MASSIVE DOG TO 2120
f) but not impossible!
g) WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT?
h) BECAUSE EVEN AT 2110 CLOSE FOR 03/08
i) THIS DOES NOT ELIMINATE A "BEARISH COMEBACK"
j) only a tag of 2150 would do that
k) why?
l) because if we tag 2150 on or before 03/08
m) we can close above 2120
n) AND SHUT THE DOOR ON ANY BEAR COMEBACK!!
o) that would destroy the bull setup by 03/20
p) does that make sense?
q) we need 2150 by 03/08
r) so we can close 2125...03/08 giving us enough room
s) ahead of 03/20 FOMC, so the BEARS CAN'T COME BACK
t) that's the only way to guarantee it (trend wise)
a) why?
b) bc IF WE CLOSE STRONG, if if if if if if if....
c) the CURVES WILL SHIFT UP!!
d) making DRAFT 1's 2150 target possible
e) BUT STILL A MASSIVE DOG TO 2120
f) but not impossible!
g) WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT?
h) BECAUSE EVEN AT 2110 CLOSE FOR 03/08
i) THIS DOES NOT ELIMINATE A "BEARISH COMEBACK"
j) only a tag of 2150 would do that
k) why?
l) because if we tag 2150 on or before 03/08
m) we can close above 2120
n) AND SHUT THE DOOR ON ANY BEAR COMEBACK!!
o) that would destroy the bull setup by 03/20
p) does that make sense?
q) we need 2150 by 03/08
r) so we can close 2125...03/08 giving us enough room
s) ahead of 03/20 FOMC, so the BEARS CAN'T COME BACK
t) that's the only way to guarantee it (trend wise)
Comment:
11:09 AM ET, 2072.xx
a) replay chart at top
b) then read what I wrote in the first note
a) replay chart at top
b) then read what I wrote in the first note
Comment:
>> Introduction - Trend engine says this is going to happen. Except we don't know what happens in the box. While I work on that this is draft 1.
>> Details - Will add as we go.
>> Feb 21, Comment:
>> 02/21, 3:21 PM, FIRST THE BOX:
>> a) again, THIS IS IS THE HARD PART
>> b) if anyone tells you they know what happens here, they are lying
>> c) the setup VERY RARE, and why?
1) in notes above I said " the box was the hard part"
2) AND IT WAS!
3) bc even one day past it, IT WAS NOT OBVIOUS THAT THEY CAN PULL IT OFF
4) and at 2045 this morning's check down
5) HARD AF TO BELIEVE WE CLOSE +30 I saw 63 max bc there's not enough reason
6) for that channel to break
7) but that's the part is unknowable
8) you don't know until it happens
9) what was knowable and why I kept on rejecting bearish outcome
10 bc it would've taken 2 weeks TO SETUP A BEAR OUTCOME
11) why?
12) bc you don't go from "setting up for all time breakout"
13) into "waterfall bear out come in days", you need a couple of weeks of
14) sideways to down
15) 2076.xx as I type
16) I'm so happy bc I was ready to kill this project
17) I was emotionally gone bc we needed a miracle and it just doesn't happen
18) BUT IT HAPPENED!!
19) close above 75???
20) we are shooting for 2150!!
>> Details - Will add as we go.
>> Feb 21, Comment:
>> 02/21, 3:21 PM, FIRST THE BOX:
>> a) again, THIS IS IS THE HARD PART
>> b) if anyone tells you they know what happens here, they are lying
>> c) the setup VERY RARE, and why?
1) in notes above I said " the box was the hard part"
2) AND IT WAS!
3) bc even one day past it, IT WAS NOT OBVIOUS THAT THEY CAN PULL IT OFF
4) and at 2045 this morning's check down
5) HARD AF TO BELIEVE WE CLOSE +30 I saw 63 max bc there's not enough reason
6) for that channel to break
7) but that's the part is unknowable
8) you don't know until it happens
9) what was knowable and why I kept on rejecting bearish outcome
10 bc it would've taken 2 weeks TO SETUP A BEAR OUTCOME
11) why?
12) bc you don't go from "setting up for all time breakout"
13) into "waterfall bear out come in days", you need a couple of weeks of
14) sideways to down
15) 2076.xx as I type
16) I'm so happy bc I was ready to kill this project
17) I was emotionally gone bc we needed a miracle and it just doesn't happen
18) BUT IT HAPPENED!!
19) close above 75???
20) we are shooting for 2150!!
Comment:
21) by 03/08... hehe
22) didn't want anyone to think I was calling for that TODAY (that's SILLY!)
22) didn't want anyone to think I was calling for that TODAY (that's SILLY!)
Comment:
11:27 AM ET 2074.XX and this chart is in DRAFT 2
1) a couple of people saw waterfall, I understand
2) but the "setup" was a "reverse waterfall"
1) a couple of people saw waterfall, I understand
2) but the "setup" was a "reverse waterfall"
Comment:
3) here:
Comment:
4) chart above was last Friday
5) the battle for the point of no return
6) last Friday shut the door for bear comeback BEFORE FOMC
7) BUT NOT AFTER IT!
8) TO SHUT THE DOOR AFTER FOMC? WE NEED 2150.
9) everything in between???
10) there's no reason you can't go sideways for YEARS AT A TIME
5) the battle for the point of no return
6) last Friday shut the door for bear comeback BEFORE FOMC
7) BUT NOT AFTER IT!
8) TO SHUT THE DOOR AFTER FOMC? WE NEED 2150.
9) everything in between???
10) there's no reason you can't go sideways for YEARS AT A TIME
Comment:
11) that's what I mean when you give me price and I say "give me a date"
12) SO I CAN SEE odds of it hitting...
13) what needs to happen for that to happen...
14) nothing is impossible but the moves that a REALLY COUNTER TREND
15) usually show up in DX, SPX, sometimes oil and even bitcoin
12) SO I CAN SEE odds of it hitting...
13) what needs to happen for that to happen...
14) nothing is impossible but the moves that a REALLY COUNTER TREND
15) usually show up in DX, SPX, sometimes oil and even bitcoin
Comment:
16) what's so annoying is I'm so busy this week with my dad and taxes
17) so that's why we're continuing here, so I don't have to write DRAFT 5
18) 2077.XX now
19) you know I didn't like disagreeing with the experts this time, usually when I see
20) at least a couple of them see it, but none of them saw it
21) go look!
22) so at 2045 check down this morning, and you tell me 2078 in 2 hours??
23) that's A REAL MIRACLE!!
17) so that's why we're continuing here, so I don't have to write DRAFT 5
18) 2077.XX now
19) you know I didn't like disagreeing with the experts this time, usually when I see
20) at least a couple of them see it, but none of them saw it
21) go look!
22) so at 2045 check down this morning, and you tell me 2078 in 2 hours??
23) that's A REAL MIRACLE!!
Comment:
11:40 AM ET 2079.XX any doubt left 2150 is possible?
a) it's STILL AN UNDER DOG TO 2120-25 (OBVIOUSLY)
b) but replay chart top
c) see how the "blank" space between now and next week
d) we need to hold this high for 24-48 hours
e) next is check down!!
f) to? obviously 2065, maybe 55 (maybe even deeper)
g) but will be Mon/Tues and early Wed
h) REST OF WEEK WE GUN FOR 2125 (2150 STILL A DOG, IT'S HARD!)
a) it's STILL AN UNDER DOG TO 2120-25 (OBVIOUSLY)
b) but replay chart top
c) see how the "blank" space between now and next week
d) we need to hold this high for 24-48 hours
e) next is check down!!
f) to? obviously 2065, maybe 55 (maybe even deeper)
g) but will be Mon/Tues and early Wed
h) REST OF WEEK WE GUN FOR 2125 (2150 STILL A DOG, IT'S HARD!)
Comment:
Comment:
a) and of all the time for my dad to have liver/kidney complications on the top of heart problems
b) THIS F-ING WEEK!!, sigh....
c) the gods play favorites
d) and it's not us, it's not! arghhh!
e) 2081.xx as I type
f) show me who else saw it coming??
g) and why is that not enough reason to TURN THIS CONCEPT INTO USABLE SOFTWARE?
h) tell me why?
I) at .05-.10 PER REFRESH, THAT'S PER COMPLETE FORECAST
m) AT 1 PER DAY? THAT' ONLY A $1 per month
n) if you trade often and need 6 a day? $6 per month
o) WHY IS THAT NOT A GOOD IDEA??
b) THIS F-ING WEEK!!, sigh....
c) the gods play favorites
d) and it's not us, it's not! arghhh!
e) 2081.xx as I type
f) show me who else saw it coming??
g) and why is that not enough reason to TURN THIS CONCEPT INTO USABLE SOFTWARE?
h) tell me why?
I) at .05-.10 PER REFRESH, THAT'S PER COMPLETE FORECAST
m) AT 1 PER DAY? THAT' ONLY A $1 per month
n) if you trade often and need 6 a day? $6 per month
o) WHY IS THAT NOT A GOOD IDEA??
Comment:
p) the gods play favorites
q) and it's not us!
r) I already said in the VERY VERY BEGINNING of starting this
s) if anyone has it already, it is The Medallion Fund run by RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES
t) make sense now?
q) and it's not us!
r) I already said in the VERY VERY BEGINNING of starting this
s) if anyone has it already, it is The Medallion Fund run by RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES
t) make sense now?
Comment:
Comment:
12:30 why we will likely have a 35 point check down OR MORE MON/TUE
a) first replay this 10-day test from 2/17 (hit play twice)
a) first replay this 10-day test from 2/17 (hit play twice)
Comment:
b) in chart above, we hit 12 of 16 boxes (this was IRL/IMA crossover indicator)
c) so ultimately we were 48 hours late for 2065
d) and 32 hours late for 2085 (for that test)
e) BUT WHY?
f) because we missed the four boxes in the first spike (didn't happen)
g) SO BECAUSE WE MISSED THE FIRST MOVE TO "GEAR UP FOR IT"
h) we are late for the second move
I) conversely ...
I) we were only geared 63 today (so tolerance at 67 not unusual)
m) but hitting 85 (is WAY OUT)
n) so this is not sustainable
m) odds STRONGLY SUGGEST A check down of 35 pts before heading back up
c) so ultimately we were 48 hours late for 2065
d) and 32 hours late for 2085 (for that test)
e) BUT WHY?
f) because we missed the four boxes in the first spike (didn't happen)
g) SO BECAUSE WE MISSED THE FIRST MOVE TO "GEAR UP FOR IT"
h) we are late for the second move
I) conversely ...
I) we were only geared 63 today (so tolerance at 67 not unusual)
m) but hitting 85 (is WAY OUT)
n) so this is not sustainable
m) odds STRONGLY SUGGEST A check down of 35 pts before heading back up
Comment:
03/01 1:27 PM ET SHORT OUTLINE:
Comment:
a) I opened short at 2087
b) why? bc it's 2087, thats obvious
c) price is already out of bounds
d AND THE SURPRISE "CHECK UP" IS 2096
e) very unlikely (BUT SO WAS 2080 this morning, so keep that in mind)
f) if you are scalping, the red box, floor is 76-78 (not a fan but use 87.75 stop)
g) it looks like to me bulls INTEND TO CLOSE 79+
h) the real money SHORT UNTIL TUESDAY OPEN
i) THE DROP SHOULD HIT 53
j) but the break down should not come until 9-10 AM on Monday
k) so until then, we are looking at an "M top" between now and Monday morning
b) why? bc it's 2087, thats obvious
c) price is already out of bounds
d AND THE SURPRISE "CHECK UP" IS 2096
e) very unlikely (BUT SO WAS 2080 this morning, so keep that in mind)
f) if you are scalping, the red box, floor is 76-78 (not a fan but use 87.75 stop)
g) it looks like to me bulls INTEND TO CLOSE 79+
h) the real money SHORT UNTIL TUESDAY OPEN
i) THE DROP SHOULD HIT 53
j) but the break down should not come until 9-10 AM on Monday
k) so until then, we are looking at an "M top" between now and Monday morning
Comment:
l) think about this way
1) if bears can sell this off today with a big wick THAT'S BEARISH AF
2) bulls want a 79+ close, AND I DON'T DOUBT THEM
3) bears want a 64- close, that would be good for my short
4) but a disaster for bulls overall plans
5) a spike like this only counts if it's HELD
6) if not, IT ACTUALLY MEANS THE REVERSE
7) remember 2140?
8) that's a wrap for Friday, I will add notes Sunday night
1) if bears can sell this off today with a big wick THAT'S BEARISH AF
2) bulls want a 79+ close, AND I DON'T DOUBT THEM
3) bears want a 64- close, that would be good for my short
4) but a disaster for bulls overall plans
5) a spike like this only counts if it's HELD
6) if not, IT ACTUALLY MEANS THE REVERSE
7) remember 2140?
8) that's a wrap for Friday, I will add notes Sunday night
Comment:
Comment:
a) for chart above: I am not a scalper by default
b) so my stops are usually too tight
c) but this one should hit BC WE ARE SO OUT OF BOUNDS UP HERE
d) come'on tagging 88? when 64 was the bound?
e) if you got stopped give it a second try, 88.5 stop
b) so my stops are usually too tight
c) but this one should hit BC WE ARE SO OUT OF BOUNDS UP HERE
d) come'on tagging 88? when 64 was the bound?
e) if you got stopped give it a second try, 88.5 stop
Comment:
Comment:
Friday cross-market wrap up dollar index, SPX, and btc:
Comment:
a) for chart above:
b) dollar index still MOST UNSURE ABOUT
c) and SPX:
b) dollar index still MOST UNSURE ABOUT
c) and SPX:
Comment:
Comment:
a) for chart above, my enemy Bitcoin broke support that is true
b) but WHEN YOU ARE THIS FAR OUT OF BOUNDS...
c) sideways is still very bullish
d) until noon Sunday, my call still 71000
b) but WHEN YOU ARE THIS FAR OUT OF BOUNDS...
c) sideways is still very bullish
d) until noon Sunday, my call still 71000
Comment:
2:52 PM, Crude oil is harder, 79.97 now.
a) can't say a lot about it except 82.50 by before FOMC
b) need to double check that first
a) can't say a lot about it except 82.50 by before FOMC
b) need to double check that first
Comment:
3:54 PM FOR WHAT IT'S WORTH, REMEMBER THIS CHART BEFORE YESTERDAY'S SPIKE??
Comment:
A) I was REALLY frustrated for having to "cut the ceiling four times
B) while raising bitcoin's ceiling 3 times...
C) at the bottom I wrote... "- bc if they did, we'd be past 2087 already"
D) 28.5 hours later we tagged 2088
E) can't deny people do care, just gotta give em another 28.5 hours
B) while raising bitcoin's ceiling 3 times...
C) at the bottom I wrote... "- bc if they did, we'd be past 2087 already"
D) 28.5 hours later we tagged 2088
E) can't deny people do care, just gotta give em another 28.5 hours
Comment:
F) but having just tagged 2027 the previous hour, calling for +61 or 3% in 28.5 hours
G) IS NOT REALISITIC! AT ALL...
H) so cutting the ceiling IS THE RIGHT OBSERVATION, and it was also WRONG!
I) therein lies the most difficult part about all of it
J) hence why an "if-then model" automatically updating binary/ternary/quaternary forecast is the logical evolution of price forecasting
G) IS NOT REALISITIC! AT ALL...
H) so cutting the ceiling IS THE RIGHT OBSERVATION, and it was also WRONG!
I) therein lies the most difficult part about all of it
J) hence why an "if-then model" automatically updating binary/ternary/quaternary forecast is the logical evolution of price forecasting
Comment:
Comment:
Comment:
Comment:
Comment:
Comment:
a) I ran this thing four times now
b) it came out orange four times
c) this after plugging in trends for all four drafts
d) why?
e) my engine disliked the move up today
f) says IT IS NOT OBVIOUS THAT THIS IS BULLISH
g) conditions:
1) both routes hit 52
2) if bullish, price must take 36-40 hours to get to 52
3) if bearish price must take 14 hours or less
4) BUT IF TAKES LESS THAN 4 HOURS.... it is absolutely over for bull market
b) it came out orange four times
c) this after plugging in trends for all four drafts
d) why?
e) my engine disliked the move up today
f) says IT IS NOT OBVIOUS THAT THIS IS BULLISH
g) conditions:
1) both routes hit 52
2) if bullish, price must take 36-40 hours to get to 52
3) if bearish price must take 14 hours or less
4) BUT IF TAKES LESS THAN 4 HOURS.... it is absolutely over for bull market
Comment:
h) I checked everything, EVERYTHING
i) this is what 'binary" or "ternary" means
1) there are 3 routes to 2052
2) if it takes 4 hours or less IT IS OVER FOR BULL MARKET
3) if it takes 14 hours or less, it is PROBABLY OVER FOR BULL MARKET
4) ONLY IF TAKES THE WHOLE 36-40 HOURS
5) does the outcome come out bullish
6) this is the "essence" of "if-then multiple outcome" model
7) the only way to "cover all bases"
i) this is what 'binary" or "ternary" means
1) there are 3 routes to 2052
2) if it takes 4 hours or less IT IS OVER FOR BULL MARKET
3) if it takes 14 hours or less, it is PROBABLY OVER FOR BULL MARKET
4) ONLY IF TAKES THE WHOLE 36-40 HOURS
5) does the outcome come out bullish
6) this is the "essence" of "if-then multiple outcome" model
7) the only way to "cover all bases"
Comment:
8) this is why only software can do this
9) because "in theory" that was a BULLISH CLOSE
10) but just ran it a 5th time, bear again!
12) we will know by Monday NY OPEN
9) because "in theory" that was a BULLISH CLOSE
10) but just ran it a 5th time, bear again!
12) we will know by Monday NY OPEN
Comment:
03/01 10:13 PM ET, 8 FOR 8 BEAR AGAIN
a) I think it's over
b) too tired of number crunching
c) but I can say with some confidence
d) that it's over, all over
e) what I don't understand is, had it been a 65 close...
f) that would've been bullish
g) but once the you get past 65.... ODDS ACTUALLY DECREASED
h) I am stumped as to why
I ) I think it has to do with this 2/26-2/28
a) I think it's over
b) too tired of number crunching
c) but I can say with some confidence
d) that it's over, all over
e) what I don't understand is, had it been a 65 close...
f) that would've been bullish
g) but once the you get past 65.... ODDS ACTUALLY DECREASED
h) I am stumped as to why
I ) I think it has to do with this 2/26-2/28
Comment:
10/27 PM, so does that mean Bitcoin is 58000 tomorrow?
a) I don't know
b) but I the call for 71000 is dead as of right now
a) I don't know
b) but I the call for 71000 is dead as of right now
Comment:
11:10 PM Bitcoin has a window for 32000 that ends 4/10/24.
a) that doesn't mean it will make it
b) but that window is officially open
a) that doesn't mean it will make it
b) but that window is officially open
Order cancelled:
THIS POST HAS ENDED, HERE IS THE LAST ONE FOR CLOSURE:
Related Ideas
a) again, THIS IS IS THE HARD PART
b) if anyone tells you they know what happens here, they are lying
c) the setup VERY RARE, and why?