Binary_Forecasting_Service

2150 BY 03/08/24 DRAFT 3, 2087 IS HIGHLY, HIGHLY LIKELY

Long
FX_IDC:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
Introduction - In DRAFT 1 and DRAFT 2, I already discussed the "why" and the "how". In this draft, we focus on the just the "what". As in, "what" is going to happen from here on out.

Details - In my mind, 2087 is "in the bag", so to speak. This rally will have 2 highs or a double top at the end. The level of the second top should be at least 2110-2120. However, it IS NOT OBVIOUS that we can hit higher than 2120 on or before 03/08. That said, IT IS ALSO NOT OBVIOUS that we cannot. So in my humbled opinion (and also bc that's the thesis of DRAFT 1), 2150 is still on the table until it's not.

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11:02 AM ET - Detailing chart above:
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a) continuing with detailing..
b) as with last notes in DRAFT 2, there should be 1 more high tomorrow
c) AND 1 MORE CHECK DOWN TO 2028 Tuesday PM - Wednesday AM
d) then it should be a smooth ride to 2087
e) it's too early to accurately project time/price of second top
f) we will play it by ear, that seems to be the most effective way anyway
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11:19 AM ET... CROSS MARKET IMPLICATIONS
a) what does that mean for BTC, SPX, AND DXY?
b) up, up, and not sure ... (soon, not necessarily at the same time)
c) last time I check, BTC is going head towards 58000 and higher
d) SPX new all time highs
e) I didn't look at the dollar thoroughly enough to warrant an opinion
f) so I have no opinion on it
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g) but just because gold will go up..
h) that DOES NOT MEAN THAT DXY WILL GO DOWN
i) just stating the obvious (that's not so obvious for whatever reasons)
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4:38 PM ET 2031-ish
a) so bitcoin had 55,000 high today or an 8% spike
b) why does that matter?
c) so when gold went to 1980s, the way that it went down was extremely bearish
d) I even made a comment then that ..
1) it would mean BTC should go to 32,000 (or something like that)
2) it would mean that SPX should go to 3800 (or something like that)
e) but I said THAT WAS NOT A FORECAST
f) that was to answer the question "if gold moves under 1900 and heads to 1840....
g) what does that then mean for BTC and SPX"?
h) but I couldn't "forecast that" bc those 2 charts DID NOT SAY THAT!
i) hence, I was looking for a route up AND announced the bullish move ...
j) BEFORE the experts announced their bearish entry for gold
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k) replay this one:
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l) for chart above the "10 day trend" irl/ima FAILED (as a test of intermediate price mapping)
m) but price DID HIT 11 OUT OF 15 BOXES SO FAR, and about to hit box 16
n) a refresh of that chart, is basically what we have right now anyway
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02/26, 9:08 PM ET, SO 2033.61 RIGHT NOW
a) next stop 2036.xx
b) next pause after hat 2039.5
c) and then 2044-47 sometime tomorrow
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9:41 PM ET, Monday 02/26, 2034.44, so the experts are in "false breakdown mode" now.
a) meaning they are still waiting for confirmation of false breakdown
b) let me tell you this though...
c) I'm going to bed now early, I will update in 10 hours or so
d) but if you see 2041 before I update, it's over for bears
e) it was already already over on Friday, but tomorrow at 2041 IT'S REALLY REALLY OVER
f) while there is still one more retrace to 2028 in the cards, it is not obvious how deep it will be
g) why?
h) bc it's not obvious the high is 2041, it should be 2044-47
i) and we are in a strange scenario where the longer it takes to get to 2044
j) the HIGHER THE THE ODDS it will break 2047 AND...
k) the lower the odds it will reach 2028 the second time (earlier today was 1st time)
m) what does that all mean
n) while the experts still debate "false breakdown"
o) I can tell you this now on the trade of and for my career
p) Tuesday and Wednesday is now a fight for a high above 2110-2120
q) 2087 is a FOREGONE CONCLUSION
r) so bears are trying to put a ceiling in at 2115 right now
s) and they are failing
t) with all that said, remember that odds are "if-then" extrapolations
u) failing to take out 2040 tomorrow makes that ceiling at 2115 harder and harder to break ...
v) before 03/08 NFP
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w) then next 5 hours or until 3 AM ET (switch it up time)
x) should be mostly sideways to THAT RED LINE I spoke of earlier
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y) in any case clear some funds for "leveraged long" starting Wednesday
z) we approaching time for leverage long entry, have a good night
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02/26 almost 10 PM ET..
a) any retrace under 2030 now ...
b) SHOULD BE VIEWED WITH ABSOLUTE SUSPICION
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c) FWIW, when I said bitcoin would hit 58000 this morning
d) it just hit 57000+ minutes ago
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e) when I said that, bitcoin was actually at 52700 (but I thought it was still 51700)
f) right after I published this draft
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g) and I'll say this right now (without doing a full break down of bitcoin chart)
h) bitcoin should clear 62500 BEFORE gold hits 2087
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i) no, scrap that, 62500 BEFORE gold hits 2135
j) why? because gold's curve for levels above 2087 is now almost written in stone
k) so we should expect gold to hit 2115 around bitcoin's 62500
l) what the question now is can we clear 2115
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m) and while it's obvious bitcoin can hit 63k by 03/08
n) it's not obvious gold can clear 2115, we won't know until this Thursday
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o) it's really hard to see DX index under 102.25
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p) finally last note:
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02/27, 12:12 AM ET, Woke up signal triggered for 2125.
a) this means I have the first reading for 2125 ON OR BEFORE 03/08/24 (NFP)
b) but this signal is simultaneous capping this top at roughly 2135
c) this ceiling is LIKELY TO HIT AND UNLIKELY TO BREAK
d) so we can pretty much eliminate targets above 2135
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12:37 AM ET, It looks like 2041 will hold as ceiling tomorrow
a) at least before NY closes
b) Tuesday night still fuzzy
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c) so this implying 2041, 2034, then 2050-ish Wed morning
d) so again...
e) I don't know what the check down after 2047-2050 will look like
f) but once again..
g) FROM HERE ON OUT, ANY THING UNDER 2030 SHOULD BE TREATED WITH SUSPICION
h) because from my end, that's the floor
i) we should not be under the floor for any reason unless for 5-min check down
j) but this does mean that we should NO LONGER SEE 2028 AGAIN
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k) finishing with chart above: so stop/reentry for longs should be at 2029-2031
l) it's getting really hard to see a retrace under 2029.5
m) so 2029 IF YOU NEED A STOP
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a) for lwlawrence in chart above
b) we can both agree on this:
c) if this thing goes south, PRICE MUST GET UNDER THAT BLUE LINE
d) right?
e) so do that first, and I'l map a route for you
f) but if bears don't do that this thing is pushing up slowly to at least 2050
g) before another 10pt retrace
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h) in which case, it may hit that blue line, BUT AT 2041
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i) this may or may not happen this Friday
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6:13 AM ET, 2036.xx we hit both overnight targets of 2036 and 2039.5
a) 2041 still today's high target
b) but it's getting harder to see price past 2041.5
c) so all recent notes concerning Tuesday and Wed remain valid
1) Tues ceiling 2041, retrace 2034, moving next to 2047-2051
2) I stated that anything under 2030 should be treated w/ suspicion
3) change 2030 to 2032 AND BTW...
4) suspicion means change of trend
5) so I from here on out if it tags 2032 we wait a bit
6) recommit long with that 2032 as hard stop
7) this number was 2028, then 2030 now 2032, will keep inching up
8) we did not hit 2041 and over but bears odds for miracle route about to disappear
9) completely by 11 AM ET
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10) BTW 2, here's what strategy for "suspicion level means"
11) as this level rise, the confidence in bullish outcome RISE CONTINUOUSLY
12) BC OF THAT, we must set safe guards for "surprise price action"
13) so it's a bit counter intuitive, but think about it this way:
14) the moment of "leverage long entry is going come some time in the next 100 hours
15) this could be as early as Wed, but could be as late as next Monday
16) so if I am going to tell you "leverage your long"
17) I have to be twice or 3 times as careful watching your back
18) that's all, I"m going back to bed
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10) continuing from chart above:
11) this topping signal can also be "broken" by moving to 2041 AND JUST STAYING THERE FOR HOURS
12) in which case, I have to believe 2047 is going to be next
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a) for chart above, some areas are just more annoying than others
b) this is THE LAST ANNOYING AREA FOR THIS ROUTE
c) if we take vol collapse route up (slowly zig zag up)
d) even then, the second box WILL NOT BE AS ANNOYING
e) it will be more obvious time/price wise
f) ultimately, we are gunning for 2044, 2055, and then all the way up
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g) I have a busy day today so some notes before I update after NY CLOSE
1) in previous chart above, DARK BLUE IS FAVORITE by quite a bit
2) but if price is still hanging around 2035 at 10 AM after NY OPEN
3) be careful with red route, BUT IT SHOULD VIEWED AS A BUYING OPPORTUNITY
4) I will post notes as the floor turn should it take red route
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5) in case of red route, bottom should be afternoon to 3 AM WED
6) there's a number of outcomes that can happen
7) including a "deeper stick save" to 2018
8) this scenario is still IF IF IF IF .. but if it plays out
9) the opportunity to buy at 2018 will only last like an hour or two at the most
10) and could be a long 10-min stick-save bar
11) but at 9:11 AM ET AND 2034.XX, I still think blue route is favorite
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12) at 9:14 2033.xx it's approaching 50/50 now , so be aware
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13) at 10:07 AM 2034.94 red route is starting to win now
14) so while it's not "set in stone" what happens next - bc this IS THE ANNOYING PART - red route is favored on 2-min bars
15) but blue route is still favored on 11 min bars AND BIGGER
16) so it's not "a clear picture
17) the overall picture HAS NOT CHANGED
18) that is how do we get to 2055?
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a) small bars say we move down first
b) but it's still NOT OBVIOUS that bears can break 2031.5
c) it's also true that stick-save floor is 2018
d) but bars above 11-min is saying low is right now and we should expect 2044 next
e) so a lot of gray are for next 36 hours
f) and we will solve that problem with a 2-min bar extrapolation
g) give me 10 min to get a chart up
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a) I will add one of these every 2 hours or so until we clear this area
b) this method with 30-second bars will allow us to anticipate what the hour to hour action is like
c) it also allows us to gauge "stick-save" situations that go deeper down
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d) the 30-second bar chart favors is starting to favor blue
e) if bears are serious about 2030 and lower
f) they need to make obvious soon or it maybe over for them in an hour or two
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a) for chart above, we are under 2032 right now
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b) that's under bull's floor a second time
c) strategy here is just wait it out until the turn comes
d) and it's going to be obvious when it does
e) when it does will be my regular entry 03/08
f) still waiting for leveraged long entry
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a) for chart above: this is 11-min bar
b) the downside to watching micro bars all the time ...
c) is you forget your intermediate strategy
d) we have retraced 10 pts from 2039 high
e) extrapolations now show that 2-way will collapse into 1-way vol
f) that means THE REST OF THE WAY should face MUCH MUCH LESS ZIG-ZAG
h) until 2087
i) so the THE REGULAR ENTRY WINDOW IS NOW TO WED 3AM
j) the LEVERAGED LONG ENTRY MUST ONE DAILY CLOSE OVER RESISTANCE
k) so looking like WED NIGHT NOW
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l) before I post 2-min bar chart...
m) keep in mind it does not have to agree w/ 11-min bar chart hourly, just overall
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n) so continuing with chart above...
o) DRAFT 1, 2, and 3 all building to this entry here
p) sometime in the next 10-14 hours
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q) here's DRAFT 1 again originally at 2024
r) it's 2031.xx as I type mostly sideways
s) so we nail this entry and we capture MOST OF THE VOL FROM HERE ON OUT
t) the last question is now: WHEN EXACTLY IN THE NEXT 10-14 HOURS
u) that's up to your r/r
w) I will post when I've made mind
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1:15 PM ET 2035.XX already
a) I cannot gauge this route well (for next 14 hours)
b) bc it doesn't have to move over 2033.5 until 3 AM ET
c) it can literally just close 2035 and go sideways for next 11 hours
d) so this is why I said it's up to your r/r when you make your entry for 03/08 high
e) I still haven't made mine bc I think it will do something like this:
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f) I made this chart 10 minutes ago by mixing 30 sec bar, 2-min bar, 8 min bar, and 11-min bar
g) you would think THAT WOULD HELP BUT NO
h) it's already wrong (for now)
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i) in chart above, unless price breaks both black lines and hold for 4 hours
j) it's just not ready
k) obviously if price moves to 2041, then I missed the cheap entry
l) I'm ok with that
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m) it won't get too far bc the waves on 2-min bar IS A MESS
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1:35 ET, 2033.xx - a classic example of how trend works if you keep track of it on all time frames
a) so I posted 11:49 AM I got the signal for 2038 on 30-sec bars by 2 PM
b) but price swung to 2029.xx first before the spike
c) so there's no way you're getting to 2038 on time with the same spike
d) sure enough spike topped under 2036.xx and now we're back to 2033.xx
e) basically nowhere until that 24 hour wave makes its turn
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f) but HAD IT MOVED w/o the spike to 2029 first
g) we would be OVER resistance now
h) everything points to us breaking resistance for good in next 10-14 hours
i) but until it's broken, IT'S NOT BROKEN:
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a) for chart above, if you use IDC/ICE XAUUSD ticker from 2147, yes, it has broken
b) but out of all (like 6-10) XAUUSD tickers from various brokers, the top should be 2135
c) and I can also prove why it should be 2135 and not 2147
d) 2011 top to August 2020 top, that's the perfect hit on all tickers EXCEPT IDC/ICE
e) so again, until it's broken it's not broken
f) yes (all the trends say it should)
g) so price should prove it within 10-14 hours
h) and if it doesn't?
i) wait it out, that's how we win for sure
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3:56 PM - minutes from close and it's not a good close, 2030.04 as I type
a) I still see this moving to to 2055
b) I can't tell how the next 32 hours will go
c) so rest of Tuesday and Wednesday
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d) it's not the path up, down then up, or sideways, none of it is obvious
e) the part that is obvious is we get to 55 Thurs or Friday
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4:14 PM ET - So I am watching for London session for the turn up.
a) until then, not expecting anything right now
b) this may change tonight
c) but I don't really think so
d) there's not that many moves that can happen now
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4:58 PM ET 2030.XX, FILLED ENTRY LONG
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a) 2030.45 to be exact
b) why now?
c) I have some conviction that this is the last turn
d) I maybe off by a few points, that's ok
e) I have one more entry to make, that is leveraged long entry
f) the size the same the 4x the leverage
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f) typo.. the size is the same, but 4x the leverage
g) so cost is 50/50, but effect is 20/80
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5:34 PM busy tonight until 7 and later.
a) my stop before 3 AM ET is 2029
b) yes I know, that's effectively a scalp
c) will explain later
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6:15 PM, 2029.75 SL
d) expected a spike that's not happening
e) so not willing to risk more than that right now to wait for it
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f) in theory, a spike should form to 2036.5
g) but I don't like the signal as much as I did a bit ago
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h) and bumped it to 2030 flat, I'll get up a 4-min bar chart tonight
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7:54 PM ET -- 2030.96, nowhere yet:
a) so we are inches from the turn up
b) but I stopped out bc that spike setup evolves into "one more low" if IT DOES NOT SPIKE
c) and it didn't spike
d) so we are going up
e) the question is... is that from 2031 (now)?
f) or 2028?
g) or 2025? (which is possible around 3-4 AM)
h) WE ARE AT THE LAST CHECK DOWN BEFORE 2087
i) there are several methods to choose from
j) I'm just going wait it out and wake up at 3:30 AM if I have to
l) so we are done going down, we are not done
n) the swing up should be obvious by noon tomorrow
o) so that's where we are
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p) typo, so until we are done... we are not done
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7:47 AM 2029.XX
a) if you play chart at top, we have shifted down vs blue hi-light about 7 pts
b) this is the difference between breakout position and ALMOST
c) so we are still about 6-9 points from that position
d) bulls were favored to make it by noon today
e) their deadline is NY OPEN tomorrow, so 24 hours from
f) until we have that position, we cannot go long
g) so the only choice here is to wait for a decision
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h) what happens if bulls miss?
i) the ceiling drops for 03/08 and the move there becomes "sideways to up" zig zag
j) if bears push for 2017, then it's sideways for a looong time
k) so bulls are on the clock to complete their position and they have 24 hours to do it
l) the earlier the better
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8:55 AM ET 2035.XX over resistance
a) play chart at top again
b) third time over resistance now
c) and price has been weak vs blue hi-light - in other words LATE
d) so the blue hi-light is basically what should happen if 7-day wave turn up
e) but we still don't have that, what we have is ALMOST
f) ALMOST IS NOT ENOUGH
g) in this situation, strategy is same everywhere
1) wait for close above resistance
2) retest
3) entry

h) obviously the more careful you are the less return on the front end
i) but I like be to be sure
k) and I'm still not sure
l) what would it take to be sure?
m) a close above 42 is what I want...
n) it's 37.20 as I type now
o) IF BULLS ARE LEGIT, then 5 points is no problem
p) but they can't do it THAT'S A PROBLEM (because it's soo close, and they still can't do it)
q) and like the bears last week... the clock is ticking
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r) to sum it up, that's how trend works
s) you have setup, but you gotta walk the door
t) and until you do, you still haven't ...]
u) that's a wrap for DRAFT 3
w) if we get a good close, I'll post DRAFT 4
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THIS POST IS DEAD, HERE IS DRAFT 4:
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EVERYONE ON DRAFT 1 NOW!!: