Which Will Be the Next Direction for the Gold?

The Gold has been in slightly neutral to bullish trend recently. At this point upwards continuation is possible. Ultimately, this is a scenario that we continue the overall downtrend channel, and of course the H4 50 SMA is just bellow where we are right now.

The first resistance is the downside trend line around $1485. In that area are located also the upper boundary of H4 Bollinger Bands and the 61.8% Fibo retracement of the daily fall from 1516.17 to 1445.70. But keep in mind that there is a lot of noise just above and we're not comfortable buying gold until we break above the $1500 level. If we can break above there, then it’s likely that we go much higher. Because in that event the overall trend from several months ago would probably be continuing. The next target in this case should be $1516.17, followed by $1535.66.

On opposite side, you should consider that even the phase 1 trade deal was reached, we don’t even have the complete details yet. So, at this point it’s very likely that the market is simply in a bit of a waiting pattern and we could see the consolidation between 1490 - 1460/50 to extend. To the downside, we' see the $1450 level as key support. Its possible to start see buyers in that area, but if we do not, that would be a very negative sign for the gold market and we would probably go much further to the downside for testing 200-day SMA at 1411 firstly.