Gold: Low to Mid 1400s Near-Term Like People Say? Unlikely
Since Gold has been moving somewhat sideways over the last week, a lot of people are being extra bearish and stating we will go back to the low to mid 1400s.
What do I think?
The reason I personally find this to be unlikely is that we will likely find sufficient algo buyers from the 1500 level to keep the prices at/above 1500. Contingent on geopolitical tensions, monetary policy easing (QE), trade uncertainty and many other issues, I see no reason for Gold to fall sub 1500 considering our last 'correction' formed a bottom at 1484 before rising back to 1500+ the same day.
Metallics typically trade in a way such that corrections on the current leg up are the lowest of the leg. That is, 1484 should be the lowest price for this current leg unless something exceptional happens that no one expected. While it is certainly possible to have another bear flag at 1499-1500 before spiking back upwards, I see this as only a potential, rather than for certain.
It is also important to keep in mind that metallics phase down to appear bearish before entering a second leg up. Therefore, on a technical analysis standpoint, just because Gold may-be trending slightly down, that does not equate to an indefinite downward trend. If you look at every slight leg up, or major leg up, Gold and Silver will always form somewhat of a downward/downtrend triangle before spiking to a new leg.
What about people saying how this rally is overbought? It doesn't matter. Every major rally in the metallics has been overbought, and in actuality, most rallies in most stocks are overbought. Something being overbought can remain overbought for days, weeks or even months. This is why RSI is oversimplified and minutely used by pros as a sole oscillator for forecasting and predictions.
My near-term target still remains around 1540, although a retracement upon Sunday open to 1510, or even 1500 is possible, although again, not for certain.
Important Metallic Volatility Dates To Note:
1) August 19th -- Huawei
2) Sept 1st -- China Tariffs
3) Sept 12 -- ECB Easing
4) Sept 18 -- FOMO Easing
5) Oct 1 -- US Gov. Shutdown Unless Bills Agreed To
6) Oct 15 -- 3rd Quarter Earnings
7) Oct 31 -- Brexit Deadline
All of the above have the potential to continue to drive Gold/Silver significantly higher.
-- zSplit
**Drag and zoom around the "idea" to see all information, dates and TPs
What do I think?
The reason I personally find this to be unlikely is that we will likely find sufficient algo buyers from the 1500 level to keep the prices at/above 1500. Contingent on geopolitical tensions, monetary policy easing (QE), trade uncertainty and many other issues, I see no reason for Gold to fall sub 1500 considering our last 'correction' formed a bottom at 1484 before rising back to 1500+ the same day.
Metallics typically trade in a way such that corrections on the current leg up are the lowest of the leg. That is, 1484 should be the lowest price for this current leg unless something exceptional happens that no one expected. While it is certainly possible to have another bear flag at 1499-1500 before spiking back upwards, I see this as only a potential, rather than for certain.
It is also important to keep in mind that metallics phase down to appear bearish before entering a second leg up. Therefore, on a technical analysis standpoint, just because Gold may-be trending slightly down, that does not equate to an indefinite downward trend. If you look at every slight leg up, or major leg up, Gold and Silver will always form somewhat of a downward/downtrend triangle before spiking to a new leg.
What about people saying how this rally is overbought? It doesn't matter. Every major rally in the metallics has been overbought, and in actuality, most rallies in most stocks are overbought. Something being overbought can remain overbought for days, weeks or even months. This is why RSI is oversimplified and minutely used by pros as a sole oscillator for forecasting and predictions.
My near-term target still remains around 1540, although a retracement upon Sunday open to 1510, or even 1500 is possible, although again, not for certain.
Important Metallic Volatility Dates To Note:
1) August 19th -- Huawei
2) Sept 1st -- China Tariffs
3) Sept 12 -- ECB Easing
4) Sept 18 -- FOMO Easing
5) Oct 1 -- US Gov. Shutdown Unless Bills Agreed To
6) Oct 15 -- 3rd Quarter Earnings
7) Oct 31 -- Brexit Deadline
All of the above have the potential to continue to drive Gold/Silver significantly higher.
-- zSplit
**Drag and zoom around the "idea" to see all information, dates and TPs
Related Ideas
