CesaroPelucci

Special Gold pre-NFP Update

OANDA:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
Goodmorning traders and welcome to the most important day of the rest of the month. It is exactly 1 year ago when gold made its all time high at $2075.

The FED has two targets to raise interest rates and start tapering. The first is inflation above the 2% target per year (currently sits around 3.5%), so that is a check. ✅ The second is that the labor market gets going again, which is not the case thus far.

Today might change that:
🔹 If NFP rises above 870k (whispers are talking about 1 million+ jobs), then we will see a strong $100 bearish move on gold before the end of month.
🔹If NFP comes in as expected between 800k and 900k, gold will test the 1790 support zone and we remain in the month long range 1790-1835 until Jackson Hole.
🔹If we see NFP coming in between 600k-800k, gold will surely test the 1830 resistance zone , with an extension to 1850.
🔹Below 600k and it is game over for the gold bears and gold is ready for a rocket to 1900.

Arguments For Stronger Non-Farm Payrolls
• Employment component of ISM Non-Manufacturing rises to 53.8 from 49.3
• Employment component of ISM Manufacturing rises to 52.9 from 49.9
• Challenger job cuts drop to 21-year low
• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rises to 85.5
• Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index hits pandemic high
• Continuing Claims fall to pre-pandemic lows

Arguments for Weaker Non-Farm Payrolls
• ADP drops to 330,000 from 680,000
• Jobless claims have been missing forecast in the whole month of July and kept rising

🔮 My personal expectation is that NFP will miss the forecast and come in between 750k-850k and we remain ranging between 1790-1835 for the rest of the month. However, we can not ignore the charts and currently we have broken the bearflag and the daily is on the verge of creating a deathcross. All to played out in a few hours.

Goodluck, and keep your TP's close but your SL's closer.