The Bear trap now appears to be ending.
An inverted head and shoulders is forming with the neckline at around 4200. Sine waves indicate a point of bullish coherence in a week. The Purple bar pattern is from the IH&S that formed in mid 2018 - this predicts a strong bullish recovery at the start of 2019.
This time frame and SMA combination is not standard, but has proven informative in signaling breakouts. When they squeeze asymmetrically like this it can indicate pressure building. The orange SMA (77) is holding tight to the triangle support, while the blue SMA (235) is leaving room above resistance. This indicates strong support pressure from below, and weak resistance pressure from above.
I have predicted a bear trap since before the break down of 5800. It is likely that this is the turning point between the Awareness and Mania phases of the bubble. If this is correct, then the strongest growth period is about to begin.
Anatomy of a bubble: i1.wp.com/www.m...myofabubble.jpg?resize=718...
See linked ideas for macro economic context.
The timing of the bear trap aligns with the expiration of CME BTC futures (29/12/18). Before closing short positions, traders "Bang the Close" - pushing prices down with selling pressure to close at a more profitable level.
This would explain the potential manipulation pattern I've observed during 2018 (chart below).
The descending triangle seemed to be constrained and unable to correct completely. I believe that the natural pattern of the correction would have been a symmetrical triangle, but a false floor of support was provided at $5,800 throughout the year. This allowed for the Fall-off-a-cliff drop we saw in November when support was removed. This would explain the price spike before October (Short squeeze), and the increase in selling pressure throughout October (MDR chart: i.gyazo.com/00c3da96...fc4a90218bce1f83.png)
Some of the wealthiest BTC wallets recently moved their funds for the first time in a long time (twitter.com/hodlonau.../1072959891910873088). This could be funds to exchanges to leverage equity. This was also around the release date of the liquid side chain, which provides an alternate and priority route for moving funds to and from major exchanges. This all points to manipulation, which isn't bad news for the average trader, as long as they are aware of what the whales are doing, and follow closely in their wake. It now seems that the whales are reversing from bear to bull.
An inverted head and shoulders is forming with the neckline at around 4200. Sine waves indicate a point of bullish coherence in a week. The Purple bar pattern is from the IH&S that formed in mid 2018 - this predicts a strong bullish recovery at the start of 2019.
This time frame and SMA combination is not standard, but has proven informative in signaling breakouts. When they squeeze asymmetrically like this it can indicate pressure building. The orange SMA (77) is holding tight to the triangle support, while the blue SMA (235) is leaving room above resistance. This indicates strong support pressure from below, and weak resistance pressure from above.
I have predicted a bear trap since before the break down of 5800. It is likely that this is the turning point between the Awareness and Mania phases of the bubble. If this is correct, then the strongest growth period is about to begin.
Anatomy of a bubble: i1.wp.com/www.m...myofabubble.jpg?resize=718...
See linked ideas for macro economic context.
The timing of the bear trap aligns with the expiration of CME BTC futures (29/12/18). Before closing short positions, traders "Bang the Close" - pushing prices down with selling pressure to close at a more profitable level.
This would explain the potential manipulation pattern I've observed during 2018 (chart below).
Some of the wealthiest BTC wallets recently moved their funds for the first time in a long time (twitter.com/hodlonau.../1072959891910873088). This could be funds to exchanges to leverage equity. This was also around the release date of the liquid side chain, which provides an alternate and priority route for moving funds to and from major exchanges. This all points to manipulation, which isn't bad news for the average trader, as long as they are aware of what the whales are doing, and follow closely in their wake. It now seems that the whales are reversing from bear to bull.
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Sine waves were slightly out of phase, correction below:
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The bear trap appears likely to close soon. Volume is yet to return, but an upward breakout of the current symmetrical triangle could allow for volume to return.
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Local time zones indicate that a potential trend change has just occrred
