As I have mentioned in my group and other trading groups, Bitcoin has been in a no-trade zone for me.
On the smaller time-frames(4h - 1h), We have had a series of Bullish(Hammer) Candles + Indecisive(Doji) Candles moving in a slight down trend. This signifies an absolutely front-line war between the Bull's & Bear's in the EQ Channel we have now broken to the downside.
The Weekly 50SMA (+ Daily 200SMA) gave the bears an advantage with adding weight to push-price down while bears confidently added to their short positions slowly breaking the price into a plunge.
ETF new's is literally the only catalyst backing the bulls with stubborn trader's not selling while we have held the uptrend structure (^7210).
...
So here is my analysis on the daily time frame to give a bigger picture to what is going on.
The Price: We maxed out at 8487 and have now pulled back to 7535.
The Volume, An increase of volume shows that the bears are taking back over, even though 3 days ago was a bullish hammer, yesterdays candle shows the bears have started winning the battle. If volume is less today than yesterday this is a good sign of seller exhaustion.
The RSI: The relative strength index is no longer oversold on the daily, we have nearly hit 50 which in the past has rebounded and held for trend reversals and bounces.
The StochRSI: Slight turn up prepping for another daily run to a high... But will it just be a Lower-High is the question... (Gains to be made for intra-day traders either way)
The MACD: Bearish Cross... This indicator lags hard... At the end of the day it could uncross again... could! But for now it's not good!
The CMF: The money flow is still favouring positive with buyer's!
The Analysis:
The bottom line is we can't lose the weekly uptrend, as you can see the main parabolic uptrend has been broke, but a break below 7250-7200 range will show we lost the main daily higher-low structure.
We have support at the top of the weekly wedge, which could cause a rebound to head back towards higher-high's however a positive catalyst would help us get a hand over the bear's growing more confident with every dollar we drop.
The 12 EMA has dropped over price, the 26EMA + Back-Test-Wedge could get us back above the 12EMA... Let's see!
The 50SMA is adding weight down on-top however the heavily weighted moving average's are still moving sideway's under price causing dynamic support. The 100SMA is sideways over price currently so a bounce sooner rather than later would help establish more support for the bulls.
The 200SMA is peering up which is great but it's so far away it doesn't have a really big role in the next few days ahead.
I will keep my eye on closer time frames (1h+4h) for a solid RSI-oversold bounce with increasing bull-volume. Until then this is a no trade zone to protect my capital.
On the smaller time-frames(4h - 1h), We have had a series of Bullish(Hammer) Candles + Indecisive(Doji) Candles moving in a slight down trend. This signifies an absolutely front-line war between the Bull's & Bear's in the EQ Channel we have now broken to the downside.
The Weekly 50SMA (+ Daily 200SMA) gave the bears an advantage with adding weight to push-price down while bears confidently added to their short positions slowly breaking the price into a plunge.
ETF new's is literally the only catalyst backing the bulls with stubborn trader's not selling while we have held the uptrend structure (^7210).
...
So here is my analysis on the daily time frame to give a bigger picture to what is going on.
The Price: We maxed out at 8487 and have now pulled back to 7535.
The Volume, An increase of volume shows that the bears are taking back over, even though 3 days ago was a bullish hammer, yesterdays candle shows the bears have started winning the battle. If volume is less today than yesterday this is a good sign of seller exhaustion.
The RSI: The relative strength index is no longer oversold on the daily, we have nearly hit 50 which in the past has rebounded and held for trend reversals and bounces.
The StochRSI: Slight turn up prepping for another daily run to a high... But will it just be a Lower-High is the question... (Gains to be made for intra-day traders either way)
The MACD: Bearish Cross... This indicator lags hard... At the end of the day it could uncross again... could! But for now it's not good!
The CMF: The money flow is still favouring positive with buyer's!
The Analysis:
The bottom line is we can't lose the weekly uptrend, as you can see the main parabolic uptrend has been broke, but a break below 7250-7200 range will show we lost the main daily higher-low structure.
We have support at the top of the weekly wedge, which could cause a rebound to head back towards higher-high's however a positive catalyst would help us get a hand over the bear's growing more confident with every dollar we drop.
The 12 EMA has dropped over price, the 26EMA + Back-Test-Wedge could get us back above the 12EMA... Let's see!
The 50SMA is adding weight down on-top however the heavily weighted moving average's are still moving sideway's under price causing dynamic support. The 100SMA is sideways over price currently so a bounce sooner rather than later would help establish more support for the bulls.
The 200SMA is peering up which is great but it's so far away it doesn't have a really big role in the next few days ahead.
I will keep my eye on closer time frames (1h+4h) for a solid RSI-oversold bounce with increasing bull-volume. Until then this is a no trade zone to protect my capital.
Comment:
Comment:
Above:
XBT:USD BITMEX 4H - TD PERFECTED (8)
The TD Sequential has given the 4h (decently weighted timeframe) a perfected 8 and now a 9 trading above...
I would like to see price get back above the Aqua + Green dashed lines to take back an uptrend before getting confident.
TA RULES:
Perfected 8 &/or 9 shows price is satisfied with it's low
Most Likely Outcomes -
Price reversal to the upside
1-4 candle correction before returning downside trending
XBT:USD BITMEX 4H - TD PERFECTED (8)
The TD Sequential has given the 4h (decently weighted timeframe) a perfected 8 and now a 9 trading above...
I would like to see price get back above the Aqua + Green dashed lines to take back an uptrend before getting confident.
TA RULES:
Perfected 8 &/or 9 shows price is satisfied with it's low
Most Likely Outcomes -
Price reversal to the upside
1-4 candle correction before returning downside trending