BITMEX:XBTUSD.P   Bitcoin
XBT INTRA-DAY BREAKDOWN

What has occurred since our last intra-day breakdown for XBT (bitmex) ?

THESE WERE THE FOLLOWING DEDUCTIONS MADE FROM OUR INTRA-DAY BREAKDOWN POSTED ON Christmas Day :
What can we deduce from all this ?
- 4270$ should still be our long confirmation price. Remember, first sell wall thereafter is at 4382$. >> AFTER ACHIEVING HIGHS OF 4245$, WE WERE NOT CAUGHT IN THE BULL TRAP AS I STATED A CLEAR LONG CONFIRMATION PRICE! THE FIRST MAJOR SELL WALL IN BULLISH TERRITORY WAS ALSO NOT REACHED.
- Support zones for XBT lay between 3427-3610$ with 3610$ as previous ceiling and now a support due to the fact price broke this level - in line with this would come a retest off supporting trend line. >> SUPPORT ZONE FOR 3610$ IS STILL FIRMLY HOLDING PRICE UP AND WE HAVE NOT YET ACHIEVED OUR SECOND DOWNWARD TARGET OF 3427$!
- Neckline for a double top currently stands at 3800$ and thus a rejection from this level would be first sign of short activity to lows of 3427$. >> WE SAW NECKLINE AT 3870$ BEING THE AVERAGE LEVEL OF REJECTION, IF WE DO NOT COUNT WICKS TO 3950$. THIS WAS THE FIRST SIGN TO KEEP AN EYE OUT IF YOU ARE LOOKING TO SHORT BACK TO OUR TARGETS, THAT I HAD STATED IN MY LAST INTRA-DAY BREAKDOWN FOR XBT.
- Daily holds huge bearish influence and this may not come for some time but when it does it will be drastic. >> SINCE THIS LAST BREAKDOWN WE HAVE SEEN BEARISH ACTIVITY FROM 3870$ TO OUR FIRST DOWNWARD TARGET OF 3610$!
- For bullish price action to remain to our upward targets, a reduction in price to these levels would only be beneficial as it places our daily in line with support zones. >> AGAIN TRUTH SPOKEN, WE DIDNT GET THE BURSTING MEDIUM TERM BULL ACTIVITY TO THE SKY THAT EVERY OTHER ‘ANALYST’ WAS STATING!

We will do the top down style analysis to look at possible price direction, that you should have become accustomed to by now.


What can we see on the daily chart for XBT ?
- We can see that we are near our support zone of 3610$ on the daily and currently on the daily there is a bearish MA cross over. I stated my first short analysis on XBT at 4200$ and stated that LONG confirmation prices lay at 4270$ and unless this zone was broken, we would remain in having a short term bearish standpoint. This came in line with a rejection from 81 level on RSI and again this lays perfectly with predrawn trend lines at this level on the daily - if you look back at our previous INTRA-DAY BREAKDOWNS you will see that we have had this chart set up for quite a while and we have been able to take full advantage of it! Keep an eye out on our priority channel for a video shortly explaining how you should set up your chart.
- As expected, we can see on the daily after a rejection from the 81 level on RSI, we would be finding momentary support at 60 level RSI and thereafter see another drop in line with black trend line drawn on this indicator to 37 level RSI and thus far 37 level RSI has coincided with 3610$ support level. I expect a further rebound to 37 level on RSI but I feel this level WILL be broken in order for us to achieve lower lows at 3427$. Moreover, we can see that 3427$ is also the previous major price ceiling that had to be broken to achieve new highs and now I suspect this level will need to act as support in order for us to have any chance of breaking 4240$ current resistance price and also have any chance of achieving our LONG confirmation price of 4270$.
- We can see that DAILY RSI/ROC is nearly breaking important supporting trend line and if current levels on daily RSI/ROC are broken then we can expect MELTDOWN TO 2950$ PRICE SUPPORT.

WHAT CAN WE SEE ON THE 4 HOURLY CHARTS FOR XBT ?
- We can see that most recently, we have seen a rejection from 3950$ in order to meet EMA 200 and as expected this level held up as strong resistance to knock us back down to 3610$ support. Furthermore, most recently, we can see that we are using MA’s as price ceilings and consistently we have seen rejections from these MA’s.
- At this given minute in time, we are seeing a divergence effect on our momentum indicators and this tells us that a big move is close, we see this big move taking us to 3500$ at the minimum even if our support zone of 3427$ is not met with intricacy. We can see that a rejection from 37 level on RSI is currently underway and that next support lays at 15 level RSI on the 4 HOURLY. This should and would coincide with support being found between 3427-3500$.
- None the less, as I stated, there seems to be somewhat of a divergence on momentum indicators and RSI/ROC is showing that support is being found at the 40 level on the 4 hourly but this could be because of the strong support effect of 3610$ support thus far. I also stated on our daily breakdown of RSI/ROC that it was at a last level of support and thus this coincides with what we are seeing on 4 hourly RSI/ROC as it is laying just at support. None the less, I expect RSI to hold more truth in this instance and for thus slight support at 40 level RSI/roc to be broken downwards of. This is negating our usual belief that at 40 level RSI/ROC, we should be careful to short and instead we should be looking to long. What could occur if this level is used as support ? We will most definitely test 3870$ once again, and even 3950$ at ema 200 but unless we achieve a lower low as 3427$, then I am more than certain, these resistance levels should hold true.

What can we see on the 1 hourly chart for XBT ?
- We can see that currently, 3700$, which was previously our SHORT confirmation price, is now holding as a strong resistance and price has kept below this level for sometime now on the hourly charts. After achieving lows of 3610$ and finding support at 15 level RSI and 40 level RSI/ROC, XBT weakly managed to only test highs of 3750$ (including wicks) before we saw rejection from 60 level on RSI and now we are currently dipping below 37 level RSI and we are on our way to 15 level RSI, which will coincide with 3610$ retest once again. None the less, on the hourly chart, RSI/ROC is showing that we have enough momentum to drive down and that we are still seeing early signs of rejection. Im sure you can see the rejection from just below the 62 level has just started in line with ascending blue resistance line on this indicator, which on the daily RSI/ROC, is acting as a last frontier of support but on the hourly RSI/ROC it is acting as a resistance.

What can we deduce from all this ?
- We are still holding on to our short term bearish standpoint on an intra-day basis and feel that 3500$ and 3427$ must at least be achieved before any bullish activity to break 4240$ commences. Moreover, in updates given on our various channels, we have stated we are momentarily bearish on our HODL coins such as XRP to 0.31$ and ETH to 128$ support to meet EMA for support before any upward activity to break resistance commences.
- For safe traders, the original confirmation price for shorts at 3700$ has been met and is currently acting as temporary resistance >> this is a really good bearish sign.
- 3610$ is still acting as support and nothing is for certain unless this support is broken.
- Initially we had expected support to be anywhere between 3427-3610$ but now we are more adamant that there is still sufficient bearish activity to drive us to new lows at 347$-3500$ and we don’t believe 3610$ is yet the TRUE price floor for bullish activity to continue in any form.
- If 3427$ is broken to the downside, then we can expect to melt to previous price floor of 3300$ and if this level is broken through, then please expect downward activity to continue till 2950$ before any relief comes for XBT/BTC.
- BULLISH CONFIRMATION PRICE TO 4.4K,4.7K,5.2K (MAX) IS 4270$ AND IF YOU WISH YOU CAN PLACE LONG LIMIT ORDERS ABOVE THIS PRICE, JUST INCASE.

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