XBT DOOMED FOR 3427$ & 3300$ - BEARS HOLD INFLUENCE!
REDACTED XBT INTRA-DAY BREAKDOWN
What has occurred since our last intra-day breakdown for XBT (MEX) ?
Our previous analysis of XBT ON THE 19TH OF JANUARY ENDED WITH THE FOLLOWING CONCLUSIONS:
‘’To conclude :
1. Expect a retracement to minimum of 3640$ and thereafter, we may find support at this level.
2. A break of 3600$ will indicate a break of higher low formation and a break to the downside to 3427$ and 3300$.
3. Support being found at 3640$ will be an indication for a retest of 3795$.
4. Price is constricted to 3870$ on the bullish side and wicks to 3920$ are possible.
5. I am momentarily bullish on XBT till these price levels but on the medium term, I am still bearish. ‘’
REVIEW :
- When this analysis was posted, price was hovering at 3710$ on BITMEX and we had just been rejected from the 3795$ resistance. As stated, we saw a decline thereafter to our initial first target of 3640$ and we broke straight through the final frontier of support at 3610$, which was a STRONG support previously.
- As stated in point 2, if 3600$ support level was broken, then we can expect bearish activity to continue till our next price floor of 3427$ (and I added an extra target of final support at 3300$, which is yet to be activated).
- SUPPORT WAS NEVER FOUND AT 3640$ AND THUS THE BULLISH SCENARIO EXPLAINED IN POINTS 3-5 BECAME INVALID.
We will do the top down style analysis that you should have become accustomed to by now to look at possible price direction.
WHAT CAN WE SEE ON THE DAILY CHART FOR XBT ?
- We can see that after finding support at 3427$, we have gone on to test MA’s with retests of 3610$ ; None the less, we have received many rejections from this zone, which was previously a price floor. We can see that MA’s are trying to do a bullish crossover on the daily charts. Moreover, After breaking out of ascending wedge, we measured out the height of the ascending wedge and as predicted the support point was EXACTLY at 3427$.
- On our momentum indicators we can see that KEY level of RSI 37 was used as support, while black line on RSI indicator is also being used as support in conjunction. We can see a bullish divergence on our RSI indicator as its showing tendency to spike up, while our RSI/ROC indicator is showing flat/slightly bearish activity towards key support level of 40 on RSI/ROC on the daily.
MOST IMPORTANTLY, WE CAN SEE THAT THE BEARISH WICKS ARE GETTING WEAKER AND AFTER TESTING 3427$, WE ARE NOW SEEING SMALLER RED CANDLESTICKS, WHICH INDICATES A REVERSAL IN TREND MAY BE NEAR : WE CAN USE THIS INDICATION ON SMALLER TIME FRAMES WITH MORE ACCURACY.
WHAT CAN WE SEE ON THE 4 HOURLY CHART FOR XBT ?
- We can see that we saw a rejection from 3610$ level twice thus far and we saw the bulls come in VERY strong at the 3427$ level. We can see that currently MA’s are attempting a bullish crossover on the smaller time frames too and that they are being used as support as indicated by the inability for price to break below MA at the minute. We can see that EMA 200 was initially used as resistance at 3795$ and now its on its way to ensure that the next ceiling lays at 3694$.
- On our momentum indicators, we can see that RSI is currently heading towards 60 level RSI, which is infamously a resistance level. We can also see that after using the 37 level as support on the 4 hourly and using the black ascending line as support on RSI, we did not quite see the bullish activity we expected, instead we quickly hit the roof with very little movement to the upside. This is a strong indication that bull activity is restricted and that the bears are in fact in charge. We can see that RSI will probably go on to test levels above the 60 level on RSI (I predict the 66 level) and thereafter bearish activity can start to kick in again). On RSI/ROC we can see that we are near first resistance level of 62 but I feel that we will go on to test 72 level to the upside to test ascending trend line in blue before price is knocked back down.
WHAT CAN WE SEE ON THE 1 HOURLY CHART FOR XBT ?
- On our 1 hourly chart, we can see that EMA 200 is in fact being used as resistance at the 3610$ level. We can see that there is an attempt being made at a bullish crossover on MA’s.
- Looking at our momentum indicators, we can see that RSI is at resistance level of 66 RSI currently but I suspect the 60 level may be used for support in order to truly test the 81 level on RSI on the 1 hourly chart, and this will correlate with a test of 66 level RSI on the 4 hourly chart as predicted. Looking at RSI/ROC we can see that it is yet to achieve the 72 level, which would usually act as resistance, thus I presume that we will need a test of this zone before bearish activity can resume.
To conclude:
1. To the upside, Expect XBT to retest 3610$ resistance once again. A break of this level will indicate that we are heading towards 4 hourly EMA resistance at 3694$. To the upside, even less likely, price has a maximum constriction to 3795$ as we meet downtrend line which has repeatedly kept price down. A break above 3610$ could lead to us being stuck in a range between 3610-3694$ before bearish activity resumes.
2. It may be safer to wait for a short at resistance levels rather than longing now, because of the mere fact that in the bigger frame of things, bearish precedence still holds much greater and we could turn bearish anytime.
3. After a rejection from these levels, you can expect a retest of 3427$ support and a break of this level will indicate 3300$ support - which is now more likely as price action confirms.
** PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS ANALYSIS IS IN A REDACTED FORM, AND FULL FORM FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES CAN ONLY BE SEEN BY PAYING PRIORITY MEMBERS **
PLEASE SEE RELATED IDEAS DOWN BELOW ;) & don't forget to stay up to date with our calls by following our Instagram and telegram channels down below AND ON OUR TRADINGVIEW PAGE - CALL AFTER CALL CORRECT!
What has occurred since our last intra-day breakdown for XBT (MEX) ?
Our previous analysis of XBT ON THE 19TH OF JANUARY ENDED WITH THE FOLLOWING CONCLUSIONS:
‘’To conclude :
1. Expect a retracement to minimum of 3640$ and thereafter, we may find support at this level.
2. A break of 3600$ will indicate a break of higher low formation and a break to the downside to 3427$ and 3300$.
3. Support being found at 3640$ will be an indication for a retest of 3795$.
4. Price is constricted to 3870$ on the bullish side and wicks to 3920$ are possible.
5. I am momentarily bullish on XBT till these price levels but on the medium term, I am still bearish. ‘’
REVIEW :
- When this analysis was posted, price was hovering at 3710$ on BITMEX and we had just been rejected from the 3795$ resistance. As stated, we saw a decline thereafter to our initial first target of 3640$ and we broke straight through the final frontier of support at 3610$, which was a STRONG support previously.
- As stated in point 2, if 3600$ support level was broken, then we can expect bearish activity to continue till our next price floor of 3427$ (and I added an extra target of final support at 3300$, which is yet to be activated).
- SUPPORT WAS NEVER FOUND AT 3640$ AND THUS THE BULLISH SCENARIO EXPLAINED IN POINTS 3-5 BECAME INVALID.
We will do the top down style analysis that you should have become accustomed to by now to look at possible price direction.
WHAT CAN WE SEE ON THE DAILY CHART FOR XBT ?
- We can see that after finding support at 3427$, we have gone on to test MA’s with retests of 3610$ ; None the less, we have received many rejections from this zone, which was previously a price floor. We can see that MA’s are trying to do a bullish crossover on the daily charts. Moreover, After breaking out of ascending wedge, we measured out the height of the ascending wedge and as predicted the support point was EXACTLY at 3427$.
- On our momentum indicators we can see that KEY level of RSI 37 was used as support, while black line on RSI indicator is also being used as support in conjunction. We can see a bullish divergence on our RSI indicator as its showing tendency to spike up, while our RSI/ROC indicator is showing flat/slightly bearish activity towards key support level of 40 on RSI/ROC on the daily.
MOST IMPORTANTLY, WE CAN SEE THAT THE BEARISH WICKS ARE GETTING WEAKER AND AFTER TESTING 3427$, WE ARE NOW SEEING SMALLER RED CANDLESTICKS, WHICH INDICATES A REVERSAL IN TREND MAY BE NEAR : WE CAN USE THIS INDICATION ON SMALLER TIME FRAMES WITH MORE ACCURACY.
WHAT CAN WE SEE ON THE 4 HOURLY CHART FOR XBT ?
- We can see that we saw a rejection from 3610$ level twice thus far and we saw the bulls come in VERY strong at the 3427$ level. We can see that currently MA’s are attempting a bullish crossover on the smaller time frames too and that they are being used as support as indicated by the inability for price to break below MA at the minute. We can see that EMA 200 was initially used as resistance at 3795$ and now its on its way to ensure that the next ceiling lays at 3694$.
- On our momentum indicators, we can see that RSI is currently heading towards 60 level RSI, which is infamously a resistance level. We can also see that after using the 37 level as support on the 4 hourly and using the black ascending line as support on RSI, we did not quite see the bullish activity we expected, instead we quickly hit the roof with very little movement to the upside. This is a strong indication that bull activity is restricted and that the bears are in fact in charge. We can see that RSI will probably go on to test levels above the 60 level on RSI (I predict the 66 level) and thereafter bearish activity can start to kick in again). On RSI/ROC we can see that we are near first resistance level of 62 but I feel that we will go on to test 72 level to the upside to test ascending trend line in blue before price is knocked back down.
WHAT CAN WE SEE ON THE 1 HOURLY CHART FOR XBT ?
- On our 1 hourly chart, we can see that EMA 200 is in fact being used as resistance at the 3610$ level. We can see that there is an attempt being made at a bullish crossover on MA’s.
- Looking at our momentum indicators, we can see that RSI is at resistance level of 66 RSI currently but I suspect the 60 level may be used for support in order to truly test the 81 level on RSI on the 1 hourly chart, and this will correlate with a test of 66 level RSI on the 4 hourly chart as predicted. Looking at RSI/ROC we can see that it is yet to achieve the 72 level, which would usually act as resistance, thus I presume that we will need a test of this zone before bearish activity can resume.
To conclude:
1. To the upside, Expect XBT to retest 3610$ resistance once again. A break of this level will indicate that we are heading towards 4 hourly EMA resistance at 3694$. To the upside, even less likely, price has a maximum constriction to 3795$ as we meet downtrend line which has repeatedly kept price down. A break above 3610$ could lead to us being stuck in a range between 3610-3694$ before bearish activity resumes.
2. It may be safer to wait for a short at resistance levels rather than longing now, because of the mere fact that in the bigger frame of things, bearish precedence still holds much greater and we could turn bearish anytime.
3. After a rejection from these levels, you can expect a retest of 3427$ support and a break of this level will indicate 3300$ support - which is now more likely as price action confirms.
** PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS ANALYSIS IS IN A REDACTED FORM, AND FULL FORM FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES CAN ONLY BE SEEN BY PAYING PRIORITY MEMBERS **
PLEASE SEE RELATED IDEAS DOWN BELOW ;) & don't forget to stay up to date with our calls by following our Instagram and telegram channels down below AND ON OUR TRADINGVIEW PAGE - CALL AFTER CALL CORRECT!
Trade closed: target reached:
First target of 3427$ achieved. Expect a retracement to ceiling before next drop to 3300$.
