XBT INTRA-DAY BREAKDOWN - Week commencing 04/02/2019 >> **THIS ANALYSIS HAS BEEN MASSIVELY REDACTED TO TAKE OUT MOST EDUCATIONAL CONTENT ON HOW WE HAVE COME TO THESE CONCLUSIONS AND IS ONLY AVAILABLE TO PRIORITY MEMBERS**
WHAT HAS OCCURRED SINCE OUR LAST XBT (BITMEX) INTRA-DAY BREAKDOWN ?
Our previous analysis of XBT ON THE 24TH OF JANUARY ENDED WITH THE FOLLOWING CONCLUSIONS:
‘’To conclude:
1. To the upside, Expect XBT to retest 3610$ resistance once again. A break of this level will indicate that we are heading towards 4 hourly EMA resistance at 3694$. To the upside, even less likely, price has a maximum constriction to 3795$ as we meet downtrend line which has repeatedly kept price down. A break above 3610$ could lead to us being stuck in a range between 3610-3694$ before bearish activity resumes.
2. It may be safer to wait for a short at resistance levels rather than longing now, because of the mere fact that in the bigger frame of things, bearish precedence still holds much greater and we could turn bearish anytime.
3. After a rejection from these levels, you can expect a retest of 3427$ support and a break of this level will indicate 3300$ support - which is now more likely as price action confirms. ‘’
REVIEW :
1. Point 1 looked at the bullish scenario for XBT at that given time, when a lot of ‘so called experts’ were saying that once again its bull run season. As explained in detail to priority members, we called bullshit once again. INSTEAD, EXACTLY WHAT WE OUTLINED HAD OCCURRED AND WE SAW A RETEST OF 3610$ RESISTANCE AND AS EXPLAINED ‘if this level is broken, this will indicate that we are heading towards 4 hourly EMA resistance at 3694$!
- GUESS WHAT ? This level was broken as outlined and WE IN FACT DID GET THE REJECTION FROM 4 HOURLY EMA AT 3694$.
2. Point 2 explained that as bearish influence is higher than bullish influence in the market at the moment, you should favour shorts and reject long opportunities, where you can. It also outlined that its safer to short from 3694$ EMA resistance and this should be optimal entry for a short to our targets.
3. Point 3 looks at our downward targets following a short position and I outlined that I expected a retest of 3427$ in the short run and I stated that support should be found at this level on first instance. Thereafter, we will see the crash to 3,300$ and once again EXACTLY WORD FOR WORD PREDICTED DAYS BEFOREHAND, THIS BECOME A REALITY. However, we only saw a rejection to 3340$ and thus technically our final target of 3,300$ was not achieved to precision.
4. During various comments given to priority members and also updates given in real time as this was all occurring, I stated that after we had found support at 3340$ that we would retest 3460$ and we would be looking to enter new short positions with new targets to 3300$ and 3200$ at this price. This weeks Top down analysis for XBT will look at this scenario more.
We will do the top down style analysis that you should have become accustomed to By now to look at possible price direction.
WHAT CAN WE SEE ON THE DAILY CHART ?
- We can see on our price chart that price has continuously created lower highs since making a highs at 4150$. Moreover, it is important to recognise the structures drawn on this chart. First of we can see that we broke out of the ascending wedge and made the drop to 3427$ price floor. Moreover, black trend line on price chart showing constant resistance. It may be important to note structurally that 3611$ is the neckline for a double top formation as can be seen on this chart. It is important to note that this neckline has been broken and retested. Thus, it is valid to measure the neckline to the top of this double top formation at 4150$ and the difference between these two prices leads to a drop to 3060$ to find support. We can also see that MA’s are currently being used as resistance. We have also broken out of a mini ascending wedge and this signals to price heading to 3300$ as a first target. WE CAN ALSO SEE THAT FINAL AREAS OF RELIEF LAY AT 3200$ AND 3300$, WITH A MIDDLE TARGET OF 3250$ ON A CONSERVATIVE BASIS.
WHAT CAN WE SEE ON THE 4 HOURLY CHARTS FOR XBT ?
- Well, starting off with our price chart, we can see that firstly EMA resistance lays at 3560$ price level and this was initially a supporting price level and now that we have broken it, its the main constriction for price to the upward direction. Moreover, we can see that the supporting trend line of wedge shows price constriction of 3427-3450$ to the upside. Looking even closer at our price chart, we can see that the horizontal black line drawn on price chart is acting as somewhat of a short term resistance. We can also see that MA’s are being used as resistance up until now but MA’s resistance is the least valuable of all resistance indicators and thus we can’t rule out a price increase to highs of 377-90$ before the next set of price drops from a conservative standpoint. We can also finally see that after breaking out of the wedge, we had practically achieved our first target of 3320-3300$ from a conservative standpoint. However, just like the last move, where support was found at our first target of 3427$ and we went on to test upper limits before dropping to our second target of 3300$, I presume we have found temporary support at 3320$ and we can’t rule out a retest of upper limits up and until 3377-3390$ before second set of drops to 3250$ and 3200$ on a conservative basis. The least conservative of targets lay at 3150-3060$ but this is essentially EXTREMELY possible too.
WHAT CAN WE SEE ON THE 1 HOURLY CHART FOR XBT ?
- Well, on our price chart, we can see that EMA resistance has further reduced on this time frame to just above 3400$ and thus we may expect a rise to a maximum of this level before bearish activity resumes to our downward targets. We can see a rejection from the short term resistance trend line on price chart I was referring to and this is in line with levels on our momentum indicators - note the trickle down effect I referred to earlier, now we can see that RSI on the hourly is already at resistance and thus it may be that on the 4 hourly, with slight wicks to the upside to our maximum upward levels, the 60 level may not even be reached on the 4 hourly and that we could see a rejection from the 37 level but this is less likely as a side note. I expect for price to decrease to 3350$ find support at 37 level RSI and then continue sideway ascend to the upside up and until 3380-90$ before shorts can resume. Our confirmation price for shorts will be a break of 3340-3320$ and then we may have the green light to short, if you are a safe trader. But, its much better to follow the price action I am describing and instead short at the top so that you may move your stops into profit once confirmation price is reached anyway. RSI/ROC is showing a bullish divergence from RSI and is in fact heading towards 62 level RSI/ROC on the hourly to prepare for smooth shorts to begin. This is all in acknowledgement with everything stated thus far.
To conclude:
1. Expect support on the short term to be found at 3350$ to create a new higher low, while highs achieved stay stable at 3380$ but I presume a REKT will occur up and until 3390-3400$. Once price reaches 3377-90$, we should get our short guns ready to the stated targets.
2. Bearish positions take precedence over long positions as long positions are capped at 3400$, 3450$ and LEAST likely of all 3560$.
3. To the downside, our revised target region is now 3250-3200$ on a conservative basis and in more irrational market activity the target area is 3060-3150$ for XBT to find support. If you do not end up shorting from the top then confirmation price comes with a break of 3320-3340$ (depending on scenarios and price action)
4. I will make Live Priority Bitmex calls with this expected price action stating enter and exit prices in real time but this is what we are keeping an eye out for at the minute and what we should come to expect.
** PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS ANALYSIS IS IN A REDACTED FORM, AND FULL FORM FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES CAN ONLY BE SEEN BY PAYING PRIORITY MEMBERS **
PLEASE SEE RELATED IDEAS DOWN BELOW ;) & don't forget to stay up to date with our calls by following our Instagram and telegram channels down below AND ON OUR TRADINGVIEW PAGE - CALL AFTER CALL CORRECT!
WHAT HAS OCCURRED SINCE OUR LAST XBT (BITMEX) INTRA-DAY BREAKDOWN ?
Our previous analysis of XBT ON THE 24TH OF JANUARY ENDED WITH THE FOLLOWING CONCLUSIONS:
‘’To conclude:
1. To the upside, Expect XBT to retest 3610$ resistance once again. A break of this level will indicate that we are heading towards 4 hourly EMA resistance at 3694$. To the upside, even less likely, price has a maximum constriction to 3795$ as we meet downtrend line which has repeatedly kept price down. A break above 3610$ could lead to us being stuck in a range between 3610-3694$ before bearish activity resumes.
2. It may be safer to wait for a short at resistance levels rather than longing now, because of the mere fact that in the bigger frame of things, bearish precedence still holds much greater and we could turn bearish anytime.
3. After a rejection from these levels, you can expect a retest of 3427$ support and a break of this level will indicate 3300$ support - which is now more likely as price action confirms. ‘’
REVIEW :
1. Point 1 looked at the bullish scenario for XBT at that given time, when a lot of ‘so called experts’ were saying that once again its bull run season. As explained in detail to priority members, we called bullshit once again. INSTEAD, EXACTLY WHAT WE OUTLINED HAD OCCURRED AND WE SAW A RETEST OF 3610$ RESISTANCE AND AS EXPLAINED ‘if this level is broken, this will indicate that we are heading towards 4 hourly EMA resistance at 3694$!
- GUESS WHAT ? This level was broken as outlined and WE IN FACT DID GET THE REJECTION FROM 4 HOURLY EMA AT 3694$.
2. Point 2 explained that as bearish influence is higher than bullish influence in the market at the moment, you should favour shorts and reject long opportunities, where you can. It also outlined that its safer to short from 3694$ EMA resistance and this should be optimal entry for a short to our targets.
3. Point 3 looks at our downward targets following a short position and I outlined that I expected a retest of 3427$ in the short run and I stated that support should be found at this level on first instance. Thereafter, we will see the crash to 3,300$ and once again EXACTLY WORD FOR WORD PREDICTED DAYS BEFOREHAND, THIS BECOME A REALITY. However, we only saw a rejection to 3340$ and thus technically our final target of 3,300$ was not achieved to precision.
4. During various comments given to priority members and also updates given in real time as this was all occurring, I stated that after we had found support at 3340$ that we would retest 3460$ and we would be looking to enter new short positions with new targets to 3300$ and 3200$ at this price. This weeks Top down analysis for XBT will look at this scenario more.
We will do the top down style analysis that you should have become accustomed to By now to look at possible price direction.
WHAT CAN WE SEE ON THE DAILY CHART ?
- We can see on our price chart that price has continuously created lower highs since making a highs at 4150$. Moreover, it is important to recognise the structures drawn on this chart. First of we can see that we broke out of the ascending wedge and made the drop to 3427$ price floor. Moreover, black trend line on price chart showing constant resistance. It may be important to note structurally that 3611$ is the neckline for a double top formation as can be seen on this chart. It is important to note that this neckline has been broken and retested. Thus, it is valid to measure the neckline to the top of this double top formation at 4150$ and the difference between these two prices leads to a drop to 3060$ to find support. We can also see that MA’s are currently being used as resistance. We have also broken out of a mini ascending wedge and this signals to price heading to 3300$ as a first target. WE CAN ALSO SEE THAT FINAL AREAS OF RELIEF LAY AT 3200$ AND 3300$, WITH A MIDDLE TARGET OF 3250$ ON A CONSERVATIVE BASIS.
WHAT CAN WE SEE ON THE 4 HOURLY CHARTS FOR XBT ?
- Well, starting off with our price chart, we can see that firstly EMA resistance lays at 3560$ price level and this was initially a supporting price level and now that we have broken it, its the main constriction for price to the upward direction. Moreover, we can see that the supporting trend line of wedge shows price constriction of 3427-3450$ to the upside. Looking even closer at our price chart, we can see that the horizontal black line drawn on price chart is acting as somewhat of a short term resistance. We can also see that MA’s are being used as resistance up until now but MA’s resistance is the least valuable of all resistance indicators and thus we can’t rule out a price increase to highs of 377-90$ before the next set of price drops from a conservative standpoint. We can also finally see that after breaking out of the wedge, we had practically achieved our first target of 3320-3300$ from a conservative standpoint. However, just like the last move, where support was found at our first target of 3427$ and we went on to test upper limits before dropping to our second target of 3300$, I presume we have found temporary support at 3320$ and we can’t rule out a retest of upper limits up and until 3377-3390$ before second set of drops to 3250$ and 3200$ on a conservative basis. The least conservative of targets lay at 3150-3060$ but this is essentially EXTREMELY possible too.
WHAT CAN WE SEE ON THE 1 HOURLY CHART FOR XBT ?
- Well, on our price chart, we can see that EMA resistance has further reduced on this time frame to just above 3400$ and thus we may expect a rise to a maximum of this level before bearish activity resumes to our downward targets. We can see a rejection from the short term resistance trend line on price chart I was referring to and this is in line with levels on our momentum indicators - note the trickle down effect I referred to earlier, now we can see that RSI on the hourly is already at resistance and thus it may be that on the 4 hourly, with slight wicks to the upside to our maximum upward levels, the 60 level may not even be reached on the 4 hourly and that we could see a rejection from the 37 level but this is less likely as a side note. I expect for price to decrease to 3350$ find support at 37 level RSI and then continue sideway ascend to the upside up and until 3380-90$ before shorts can resume. Our confirmation price for shorts will be a break of 3340-3320$ and then we may have the green light to short, if you are a safe trader. But, its much better to follow the price action I am describing and instead short at the top so that you may move your stops into profit once confirmation price is reached anyway. RSI/ROC is showing a bullish divergence from RSI and is in fact heading towards 62 level RSI/ROC on the hourly to prepare for smooth shorts to begin. This is all in acknowledgement with everything stated thus far.
To conclude:
1. Expect support on the short term to be found at 3350$ to create a new higher low, while highs achieved stay stable at 3380$ but I presume a REKT will occur up and until 3390-3400$. Once price reaches 3377-90$, we should get our short guns ready to the stated targets.
2. Bearish positions take precedence over long positions as long positions are capped at 3400$, 3450$ and LEAST likely of all 3560$.
3. To the downside, our revised target region is now 3250-3200$ on a conservative basis and in more irrational market activity the target area is 3060-3150$ for XBT to find support. If you do not end up shorting from the top then confirmation price comes with a break of 3320-3340$ (depending on scenarios and price action)
4. I will make Live Priority Bitmex calls with this expected price action stating enter and exit prices in real time but this is what we are keeping an eye out for at the minute and what we should come to expect.
** PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS ANALYSIS IS IN A REDACTED FORM, AND FULL FORM FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES CAN ONLY BE SEEN BY PAYING PRIORITY MEMBERS **
PLEASE SEE RELATED IDEAS DOWN BELOW ;) & don't forget to stay up to date with our calls by following our Instagram and telegram channels down below AND ON OUR TRADINGVIEW PAGE - CALL AFTER CALL CORRECT!
