botje11

Fractal played out almost to the point, next stage as well?

BITMEX:XBTUSD   Bitcoin / US Dollar Perpetual Inverse Swap Contract
The previous analysis i wrote the following:

Maybe good to keep an eye out for, is the bull flag of ETH. In my ETH analysis i showed a possible bull flag in the making, which has been playing out almost perfect so far. So at this point no reason to doubt it yet. What is important with ETH now, because the market is at these highs, that IF a break out happens, it needs to be a big rally and not a slow move up. So doesn't need to be a huge spike, but a good convincing and fast rally up. If that doesn't happen for ETH, things will remain very dangerous IMO . Because when looking at other alts, they are really not believing in another big rally from Bitcoin , at least not yet.

Strangely enough, ETH was maybe the only alt that really did move along with Bitcoins breakout. While most other waited a few more hours, actually waited until the 10.000 broke before really starting to move up. So telling us it's important to always watch ETH as well, this is not the first time either.

When zooming in to this fractal a bit, this is the stage we should be in now:

Here we can see the drop we had earlier was quite similar in size (in points, 400 and 400) and shape. Since the low moving in like a triangle then and a wedge shape now. Already broke up so we should be inside of a new consolidation phase now. Then we had an almost clean triangle against the resistance, so we might be seeing a similar shape now as well.

When this will play out again, we see some shake outs are ahead of us. Back then i mentioned that a 1K drop correction will happen at some point. Because it always does during crazy moves like this. Reason for this is because many people increase the positions during the rally, so big bags who will panic sell (take profit) as soon as it starts to drop . Or see it as if they use trailing stops on the way up. So when it goes, stops get hit and we see a snowball effect. All of this, only to test if the rally is real or fake. Usually (even for Bitcoin ) after a big rally like this, it's highly unlikely to just see it dump and then continue to dump. Meaning, even if it drops big (like 1000 points), it should only be a correctional wave again.

Anyway, for now, if we get to see a solid consolidation between 11.000 and 10.700ish and in a shape of a triangle, it will be very likely to see it break up another time. So if it moves similar to the fractal , i have no reason to think otherwise. I have been saying that the weak alts are worrying, but they have not played a role at all for Bitcoin , so just going to ignore that from now on since it has no value.

Since the market is parabolic mode, normal TA is not very useful and as mentioned a few days ago, i am not giving any resistances zone because i don't believe there aren't any. Said that as well 2 months ago when the 6K broke and the rally started and we have seen that it has no use to look back during a parabolic move. Only real zone i do see (a resistance level i mentioned many times beginning of 2018), is the 12k/ 13k . Think that zone might still have a lot of resistance. So that doesn't mean i will short it there, but it does mean that i will be more cautious when it reaches that zone.



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Previous analysis:

Comment: The fractal also says, that we can not drop below today's low. So if we drop below 10.500ish, the fractal might be invalid

Comments

weak alts is wallets transferring from alt to BTC, new money coming in to BTC, Alts will have their turn as always.
+5 Reply
@proficy, some will surely not lol
Reply
Good Idea, check my ideas pls!
+1 Reply
David, you should also compare shorts and OI for those timeframes.
+1 Reply
Violent near 1000 point sell-off within minutes suggests a top is in - at least for now - and we may be wildly swinging with large 500-1000 point moves in both directions before a final sell-off and correction.
+1 Reply
Hi David, If you could answer me this question, I would appreciate it.

Is such volume indicative of a reversal of the bear trend, or are the odds high that this is a sucker's rally?

+1 Reply
proficy spyxo2x
@spyxo2x, that volume is in Bitcoins, Bitcoin at 300$ vs Bitcoin at 20x that price.
+1 Reply
Please Sir, more moon?
+1 Reply
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