monetarypolicy

Intuit Intuit PRO DJY0, M, Short ,
DJY0: Is Another Financial Crisis Coming to the United States?
796 10 27
DJY0, M Short
Is Another Financial Crisis Coming to the United States?

"In general, we find that monetary policy should react to asset prices and should try to “prick” or “burst” asset bubbles." (Roubini 2005) Though it is clear they have not done so, anyone can see that there is an asset bubble in the stock, bond, and housing markets yet the FED continues their Zero Interest Rate Policy, and continues to print money at unprecedented ...

aiza_belle aiza_belle AUDUSD, 60,
AUDUSD: AUDUSD Humpty Dumpty
53 0 0
AUDUSD, 60
AUDUSD Humpty Dumpty

Despite the RBA leaving its economic policy unchanged, I still have a gut feel that this pair might drop soon (and as any feelings, they're just feelings, so it's highly likely that I might be wrong and I'm just relying on technical analysis too much + my current bias on USD strength). Waiting for confirmation candles to drop at 0.755 or rise to 0.76833 before ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading GBPAUD, W, Long ,
GBPAUD: RBA MONETARY POLICY DECISION HIGHLIGHTS - GBPAUD AUSSIE
215 2 8
GBPAUD, W Long
RBA MONETARY POLICY DECISION HIGHLIGHTS - GBPAUD AUSSIE

As expected the RBA deciced to keep the OCR unchanged at 150bps. 30D Aussie bank bills implied only a 2% chance of a cut, down from the 10% we saw several weeks ago. There were few hints as to further policy, and it certainly feels as if the calls/ rhetoric for further cuts has been dampened in recent meetings following the august reduction. As well as in recent ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading GBPNZD, D, Long ,
GBPNZD: RBNZ MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT - GBPNZD TACTICAL LONG (NZDUSD)
98 0 4
GBPNZD, D Long
RBNZ MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT - GBPNZD TACTICAL LONG (NZDUSD)

RBNZ not adding much new in their September statement, and imo, Gov Wheelers speech highlighting the issues with trying to control a ccy with the cash rate makes the persistent worries regarding kiwi/ nzd strength less of a dovish factor than it may appear. Nonetheless, the statement on the margin was neutral, with perhaps the pressure for a lower kiwi and ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading USDJPY, D, Short ,
USDJPY: FED YELLEN SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS - USDJPY DXY SHORTS
129 1 7
USDJPY, D Short
FED YELLEN SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS - USDJPY DXY SHORTS

Fed Yellen Speech: Yellen: Current Policy Should Help Economy Move Toward Goals Yellen: Welcome Development That More People Seeking Jobs, Unemployment Measures Steady Yellen: Household Spending Key Source Of Economic Growth Yellen: Fully Committed To Achieving 2% Inflation Objective Yellen: Recent Pickup In Growth, Labor Market Strengthen Case For Rate ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading AUDUSD, D,
AUDUSD: AUSSIE - AUDUSD: RBA MINUTES HIGHLIGHTS
160 1 8
AUDUSD, D
AUSSIE - AUDUSD: RBA MINUTES HIGHLIGHTS

RBA MINUTES: JUDGED CURRENT STANCE OF POLICY CONSISTENT WITH GROWTH, INFLATION TARGETS - Steady Decision Took Into Account Rate Cuts In May And August, Recent Data - Estimated Around Half Of The August Rate Cut Had Been Passed On To Bank Customers - Repeats Rising A$ Would Complicate Economic Rebalancing - Decline In A$ Since 2013 Continued To Support Traded ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading GBPNZD, 30, Short ,
GBPNZD: SHORT GBPNZD ON RALLIES INTO 1.81: RBNZ GOV WHEELER HIGHLIGHTS
169 0 10
GBPNZD, 30 Short
SHORT GBPNZD ON RALLIES INTO 1.81: RBNZ GOV WHEELER HIGHLIGHTS

The market took RBNZ Wheelers comments as largely hawkish before fading off to neutral after interestingly Wheeler mentioned that the current market rate tracker has 35bps of cuts priced in - illuding to 2 more cuts being likely though he failed to mention how realistic this expectation is past what future data holds. I like being short GBPNZD into 1.81 rallies ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading EURUSD, D, Short ,
EURUSD: SELL EUR V AUD, USD, NZD: ECB MONETARY POLICY MINUTES HIGHLIGHTS
202 0 13
EURUSD, D Short
SELL EUR V AUD, USD, NZD: ECB MONETARY POLICY MINUTES HIGHLIGHTS

After 5days higher EUR$ Statistically is a 80th percentile sell opportunity - the monetary policy minutes were dovish on the margin reiterating and stressing the ECB's willingness to "Boost stimulus again if needed". This should put downside pressure on EUR given september meeting is coming up (when most likely to add to easing). EURAUD and EURUSD shorts here look ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading DXY, D, Short ,
DXY: DXY/ USD: FED LOCKHART SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS
110 0 7
DXY, D Short
DXY/ USD: FED LOCKHART SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS

Fed Lockhart was cautious on the margin stating one rate hike in 2016 only "could" be appropriate rather than should which echoed the sentiment of the earlier Fed Dudley speech which was alot more hawkish imo. This has helped the USD back off its Dudley induced gain, and refocus on the CPI miss as Lockhart reminded the market that " Some Signs Election Uncertainty ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading AUDUSD, D, Long ,
AUDUSD: AUDUSD LONG: RBA GOV STEVENS SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS
290 5 12
AUDUSD, D Long
AUDUSD LONG: RBA GOV STEVENS SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS

"It's a search-for-yield world and this country still looks attractive because other yields look so unattractive," Mr. Stevens said in a joint interview with The Wall Street Journal and the Australian newspaper ahead of his retirement next month. "That's not something that the Reserve Bank can wave a wand and make go away." The below and above support my bullish ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading AUDUSD, D, Long ,
AUDUSD: DXY/ USD: LONG AUDUSD 0.78TP - FOMC DUDLEY SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS
89 0 6
AUDUSD, D Long
DXY/ USD: LONG AUDUSD 0.78TP - FOMC DUDLEY SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS

Fed dudley was largely hawkish on the margin more than hintin that the Fed should hike this year using plural "rate hikes this year good news" and also saying "fed funds futures under-pricing the rate hike likelihood". These remarks seem to be the catalyst for USD buying despite the weak CPI data (as expected) - nonetheless i think this is a good opp to add to ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading AUDUSD, D, Long ,
AUDUSD: AUDUSD: RBA MINUTES - NEUTRAL & NO COMMITMENT TO FURTHER ACTION
178 0 10
AUDUSD, D Long
AUDUSD: RBA MINUTES - NEUTRAL & NO COMMITMENT TO FURTHER ACTION

Minutes were neutral with little hints to further action, much of which inline with the SOMP - if anything it was on the hawkish side given they expect "inflation to be improved by easing" which infers they think policy stable at 1.50% might be sufficient. Though they did go on to say "AUD$ rise could cause complications" though it was kept to a very limited sense ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading NZDUSD, W, Long ,
NZDUSD: NZDUSD/ AUDUSD: RBNZ GOV WHEELER SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS
201 1 12
NZDUSD, W Long
NZDUSD/ AUDUSD: RBNZ GOV WHEELER SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS

Governor of the RBNZ Wheeler offered little bearish pressure on kiwi, refusing to go into any intervention talk and failing to say what the bank will actually use to tame this deflationaire NZD they are experiencing at the moment - with the comments below in mind imo this leaves on direction for Kiwi (short of some FOMC/ USD bullish pressure which seems unlikely ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading NZDUSD, D,
NZDUSD: NZDUSD/ AUDUSD: MONETARY POLICY DECISION HIGHLIGHTS
259 0 11
NZDUSD, D
NZDUSD/ AUDUSD: MONETARY POLICY DECISION HIGHLIGHTS

Relatively poor delivery from the RBNZ, by the looks of the whipsaw the market wanted/ expected 50bps based on the AUD differential and the RBA rate cut last week 50bps or some alt policy (e.g. QE) seemed like the smart move to make. From here Kiwi and Aussie longs look preferential as the macro environment shifts to a yield seeking stance from monpol trading - ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading NZDUSD, D, Short ,
NZDUSD: NZDUSD: RBNZ MONPOL DECISION PREVIEW -  BOE OR RBA STYLE?
225 3 11
NZDUSD, D Short
NZDUSD: RBNZ MONPOL DECISION PREVIEW - BOE OR RBA STYLE?

RBNZ Monetary Policy Decision: 1. At 22:00GMT the RBNZ are expected to cut their OCR rate to 2% from 2.25% (25bps), further they will release their monpol statement and rate statement then too - with RBNZ Gov Wheeler speaking 1hr after the release. 2. The are a number of outcomes which are likely to or not to affect the NZD$ market, I will list the combinations ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading GBPUSD, D, Short ,
GBPUSD: GBPUSD/ GBPJPY: BOE POLICY DECISION & CARNEY SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS
265 4 15
GBPUSD, D Short
GBPUSD/ GBPJPY: BOE POLICY DECISION & CARNEY SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS

BOE's policy decision and QIR was largely inline with expectations, perhaps even 10bn better than expected on the QE side - and was very forgiving with hints towards further interest easing, though the stubborn unwillingness to realise negative rates undermined this to some extent. GBPJPY and GBPUSD shorts traded into intermediate TP levels - with GBPJPY ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading USDJPY, D, Short ,
USDJPY: USDJPY: BOJ DEPT GOV IWATA - MORE WORDS, NO ACTION; SELL 101/2.5
222 0 13
USDJPY, D Short
USDJPY: BOJ DEPT GOV IWATA - MORE WORDS, NO ACTION; SELL 101/2.5

BOJ dept Gov Iwata was the most recent in what seems to be a slew of attempts by JPY officials, whether it be Govt or BOJ to try and weaken the Yen with yet again more dovish/ promising rhetoric. Statements such as "prepared to loosen policy further without hesitation" where in my mind no doubt undermined by the BOJ's seemingly blind assesment of future ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading AUDUSD, D, Short ,
AUDUSD: SHORT AUDUSD: RBA INTEREST RATE DECISION - CUT 25BPS TO 1.50%
335 12 15
AUDUSD, D Short
SHORT AUDUSD: RBA INTEREST RATE DECISION - CUT 25BPS TO 1.50%

RBA Cut the Cash rate to 1.50% by 25bps, the market has had a very subdued reaction though, barely falling 30pips from market. I still think there should be more downside here and into the mid/low 74xx before the full fade comes in - so luckily room for retails to get in, looks like the algos were having a day off today. This is positive for any kiwi$ short ...

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