Treasuries are trying to recover after making some nice and deep pullback in last few months as FED decided to wait on more economic data before they may finally cut rates. The pattern on 10 year US notes is looking bullish here after that impulse up since Novemeber, seen as wave (A), so obviously this tells us in which direction market can move after a...
Markets are notorious for exaggerated expectations. They sense a tiger when all they see is a cat. Expectations on rate cuts have been no different. Despite the Fed’s speak on measured changes to policy rates, markets got ahead of themselves since late last year. Markets are now starting to align their expectations with reality. US economic data from January...
The 30-Year Bond seems to have found support at the 89 EMA aligning with a trend line, it seems that demand for this maturity will pick up soon which would result in the 30-year Yield dropping to around 3.5%. I do however think this drop in yields will be temporary, but the move down in 30 year yields and the move up in the 30-Year Bond Futures will likely be...
The TLT looks like it's trying to form a Double Bottom at the 0.382 Fibonacci Retracement, it is also Bullishly Diverging at this level, if it holds up I think it could go up to as high as $96 near the 200-period Simple Moving Average which would also fill the gap. From there I'd think it could continue back down. I will be selling weekly puts around the lower 90...
Macro Monday 30 U.S. Net Treasury International Capital Flows In essence the U.S. Net Treasury International Capital Flows (US TIC Flows) refer to the movement of funds into or out of the United States through the purchase or sale of U.S. Treasury securities by foreign investors and governments. These flows of capital are an essential component of the overall...
TLT is at a very well-defined resistance level and overbought. The MACD is also elevated to the same level where we last saw a steep reversal in the price of TLT. To short TLT, I suggest the triple inverse ETN of TLT called TMV.
The British pound is trading lower on Friday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2381, down 0.27%. The pound has shown sharp swings this week, notably a 1.78% jump on Tuesday after US inflation was weaker than expected, sending the US dollar sharply lower against the majors. The pound is up 1.28% this week. UK retail sales were expected to bounce...
The British pound has posted strong gains on Thursday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2216, up 0.54%. Bank of England pauses The Bank of England voted to maintain interest rates at 5.25% at today's meeting. The pauses follow 14 straight rate increases in the current tightening cycle which began in December 2021. The move indicates that the MPC...
The rest of the world is no longer accepting U.S. policymakers being fiscally irresponsible. China has started dumping U.S. treasuries. Other countries like following suit or are going to. Unless U.S. Politicians prove they are willing to reduce expenditures and shrink the deficit, the world is not going to be buying U.S. debt. They are stockpiling Gold until a...
The Dollar and US treasury Yields are all showing signs of future strength leading to the FOMC meeting, as the EURUSD has slammed into Resistance with Bearish Divergence and PPO Confirmation, the Yields have hit a Shark PCZ with PPO Confirmation, and XAUUSD has once again hit the PCZ of a Bearish ABCD and will give us PPO Confirmation of a Type 2 Reversal once,...
The Inverse ETF for the 20-Year US Government Bond is currently breaking out of a Descending Broadening Wedge and is looking to go much higher perhaps between the 61.8% and 78.6% retraces which would be about a 500-1,400% percentage gain which also means that longer end bond yields are going much higher. I previously said I would repost this chart after the split...
If it walks like a duck and it quacks like a duck ... But wait for it! In reality the Inflation-Deflation pendulum is already past mid-swing, towards the later (by most meaningful measures). Incidentally, most institutions and central banks are piled in at the short end of the curve and one could sell them anything going out past 3 years, for anything. That, in...
The DXY after catching a rally off a 4-Hour Bullish Butterfly, has reached my price target of $103, and if it gets above that zone, then I think the DXY will have plenty of room to make multi-decade highs due to The High Interest Rates, Tightening Credit Conditions, and The Deflation that is now being priced into the US Bond Market. If things go as expected...
I've been loading on these like crazy, all day long. Yields have peaked, by any measure. Also, the inevitable - continuous - U$D buying can't help but push these higher. The Yuan/Rubble based trade, while present, is miniscule and capital isn't exactly flowing into mainland China. No one trusts the Chinese and the Russo-Chinese alliance is about as stable as a...
Gold (US$ / OZ) | Wednesday 31/5/2023 | Ethan Smythe Fundemetal Gold prices rose higher at market open on Tuesday in response to a fall in US Treasury Yields following Washington's push to raise the US debt ceiling. This development sparked optimism with respect to recent fears of a US debt default on Tuesday. Congress now has up until June the 5th to...
The 10 Year Yield has been trying to hold this B point level as Support for the longest time but everytime it tries to bounce it gets pushed right back down and in the most recent try we saw it come up to test the moving averages while it Bearishly Diverged and began a Death Cross. If we can get a serious BAMM Breakdown from here it coulkd go down all the way to...
US10Y - Strong support around 3.60% (green line - uptrend from 2020). Multi-decade red downtrend line, already broken.
First Thing First: This analysis is for “general overview only” as it is solely based on price action. That’s why it is called momentum analysis in the first place. Support/Resistant, Volume Macro view nor any other factors are not used during write up. Refer to the individual pair analysis for a more comprehensive write up. US1Y: Bullish US2Y: Bullish US5Y:...