The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) is having the first red month (1M) after rising non-stop since May. It has been on extremely overbought levels for the last 12 months as the price established itself above the multi-decade Bearish Megaphone pattern, the same way it was oversold below it following the March 2020 COVID crash. As you know the price quickly...
TVC:US10Y chart mapping/analysis. US10Y getting dumped off combination FOMC decision, US economic data + US Treasuries update triggering institutional short covering. Bond & equities market squeezed higher, in-line with seasonality. Possible bearish H&S in development on lower timeframe, pending pattern confirmation.
US10Y continues to rise inside a long term Channel Up, with its 1D technical outlook bullish (RSI = 57.618, MACD = 29.942, MACD = 0.116). The 1D RSI though is for the first time in the recent months under a LH bearish divergence so for the first time the probabilities for a bearish reversal get stronger. Consequently, if the price crosses under the Channel's...
Last time we looked at the U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y), it gave us a technical bounce and profitable buy signal (see chart below) as the Higher Lows trend-line held: This time we get an opposite signal as the 1D RSI formed Lower Highs, while the price is on Higher Highs, which is a technical Bearish Divergence. The asset is still supported both...
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The 10year Bond Yields / US10Y is trading inside a Channel Up since May 1st. The last two weeks the price is pulling back after a Higher High rejection and Double Top on Resistance A (4.888), aiming at the bottom of the Channel Up. That is a buy opportunity to target 4.888 again. If on the other hand the 1day MA50 breaks (is untouched since July 20th), sell and...
The Fed Hawkish Stance During Wednesday's address, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reinforced his stance on tackling inflation with a more cautious approach. He emphasized that the central bank is not yet finished with its efforts to curb inflation and hinted at the possibility of implementing multiple interest rate increases during future monetary policy...
This count is based on my assumptions so anything can happen not a trading or financial advice just for educational purposes only kindly do your own ta thanks trade with care good luck.
The US10Y hit the top of the five month Channel Up, which started after a 5 time hold on the Support Zone, while the RSI shifted to LH (RSI = 68.642, MACD = 0.088, ADX = 56.354). Having completed a common +12% increase, we get the same sell signal as all prior Higher Lows. Our target is Fibonacci 0.5 (TP = 4.315%), highly likely on course for contact with the 1D...
This count is based on my assumptions so anything can happen not a trading or financial advice just for educational purposes only kindly do your own ta thanks trade with care good luck.
Looking at the Monthly Chart of the TLT 20yr bond etf. I see a large ABCD Pattern Set up. The Initial Triangle has not completed. Currently there is heavy selling in Bonds (C leg sell off to D leg of the bullish cypher) The Trend Line was breached, and now the sell off is acting like a Magnet to retest 2008 lows. It's worth noting this sell off appears to be A...
- TVC:US10Y is showing significant strength on all major timeframes. - The EMA's on the monthly timeframe broke bullish after 12,000 days (Last seen 1962). - If the US10YR breaks the 50% price retracement, we could see between 7.25% - 15%. (Last seen 1981) The markets are in a scary place right now. This bear market may be extended due to many factors were...
US10Y remains in an established uptrend on the daily chart, and Friday's bullish engulfing candle suggests a swing low has formed and more gains are to follow. But having looked back at price action since the April low, we note that prices are yet to break the low of a bullish engulfing candle if it has formed after a pullback or period of consolidation....
The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) is having a 2-week rejection since the August 22 High that was priced marginally above the 4.336 Resistance. However both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as well as the Higher Lows trend-line that moves just below it, remain intact, maintaining the long-term uptrend. Today is the ideal spot for a new buy entry, targeting...
Nominal 10-year Treasury yields have risen to the highest level since 2007. Just when we though the bond sell-off of 2022 was behind us, it came back with a vengeance. Hawkish Federal Open Market Committee (Fed) minutes and a string of positive economic data from the US are casting doubts whether we have reached peak interest rates in the US. The Fed certainly has...
US inflation data in July 2023 provided mixed signals. While Consumer Price Index (CPI) is moving in the right direction, producer price inflation suggest pipeline pressures are picking up. Core CPI, which excludes often-volatile food and energy costs, rose only 0.2% for a second month in a row . However, US producer prices picked up in July, owing to increases in...
Update from original TLT vs. US20Y idea: - Switched to New Pane comparison for optimized viewing/zooming in on price movements. - Added TLT Candles for better price action analysis. - Added TLT trend lines for greater emphasis on inverse correlation + indication of trend break-outs. Boost/Follow appreciated, cheers :) AMEX:HYG NASDAQ:TLT TVC:US02Y ...
TVC:US20Y double-tops, while NASDAQ:TLT creates a double-bottom.. Question to ask tho - has US20Y actually double-topped, or is this just retracement for a bigger push beyond ATHs? Looking for further signs of confirmation that long-ended yields have indeed peaked...then I'll feel more confident in popping the champagne. Boost/Follow appreciated, cheers...