Treasuries are an intersting play right now. Depending on your home currencies it still might be a good moment to consider stocking up on them in your portfolio. Couple of notes looking at the chart. FOMC participants’ assessments of appropriate monetary policy: Midpoint of target range or target level for the federal funds rate was shown to be around 4% (per June...
Although BTC may be considered as a 'new safe heaven', 'digital gold' and etc., it is actually one of the least safe investments. Whereas, 30 year US bond yields tend to be on the safest side in comparison to all financial assets. By analyzing financial assets against commodities or safe financial assets you take away fiat currency fluctuations. Which are...
We are living in arguably the most interesting time for all financial markets. Some economists, politicians, and business entities know the saying: “when America sneezes, the world catches a cold.” Now, no matter how you interpret this statement the U.S accounted for over 20% of the expansion in world RGDP during the past two decades. Moreover, U.S'...
As most commodities are currently collapsing, it is very hard to keep believe that inflation is going to go higher from here. June could be the first month with a negative MoM CPI print, but it probably won't be the last. As deflation is taking inflation's seat, bonds have been looking attractive for some time. Essentially we got a blow of top in yields...
The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield (US10Y) has been on a pull-back in the past 2 weeks and is close to testing the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) again. This held last time upon contact on May 26 and constitutes the first Support. We may have a Channel Up pattern in formation and the 1D MA50 sits almost exactly on its Higher Lows (bottom) trend-line. A 1D candle...
The Euro Area GDP expanded by 0.6% on quarter in Q1 2022, twice a 0.3% growth in the previous estimate, and above a downwardly revised 0.2% gain in Q4. Improved export activities. Exports increased 0.4% while imports fell 0.6%. Concerns around the war in Ukraine resulting in inflationary pressures on food prices and supply disruptions The ECB is set to end 8...
I'm looking at US10Y on monthly scale , If we see weekly candle close with doji more probably US10Y will be rejects at this level and it' will retest previous horizontal support and diagonal trendline as mentioned on the chart.
if btc close below 19k this weekend, i can sey the next week will be historical. there are to supports waiting for the btc fist one is between 18k-16900 , and the second is between 13900 and 11800. Not forgetting what is going on in the global economy, the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates, which will cause investors to sell their positions in...
It appears 10 yr yields have peaked which should be great for equities. Interestingly when you flip the S&P 500 you pretty much get the yield curve. We have seen clear inverse correlation. Oil and Nat gas also looked like they topped so I suspect peak inflation has been reached for a while and the fed may begin to pivot and either hike much less (25 bps), stop...
The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield (US10Y) has been trading within a Bearish Megaphone with Higher Highs and Lower Lows since late 2013. The current 1W RSI pattern resembles that of the price Channel Up that in 1 year led to the most recent Higher High in 2018. As a result, we expect a slow Channel Up towards the end of 2022/ early 2023, which will add to the...
The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield (US10Y) has been trading within a short-term Channel Down on the 1D time-frame with the 4H MA100 (red trend-line) as the Resistance and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as the Support. This is turning into a tight squeeze and whatever level breaks first, should give us the direction on the longer term. A break below the 1D MA50...
The EURO now sits under 138.000 on the exchange rate, a key resistance level that will now surely break after European Inflation hit 8.1% for the month of April 2022, igniting the debate about whether the ECB should be raising rates at 0.50% increments instead of 0.25% increments as signaled by Christian Legard. With European Bond Yields climbing and paying a...
Bond yields appear to have peaked following last months peak in inflation and this months data suggesting a massive economic slowdown is around the corner. Is demand destruction signaling the bid in bonds, or does inflation have more upside ?
The Euro is now highly likely to catch a strong bid against the Yen after the European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said the Central Bank is likely to start raising interest rates in July and exit sub-zero territory by the end of September 2022. Interest rate differentials on Government Bonds will support the EURO higher. In this video I breakdown...
Here is a chart of the 2yr / 5yr /10yr / & 30yr yields The BLUE LINE represents the highest yields from 2018 The WHITE LINE represents the highest yields from 20202
I know everyone is screaming about Interest Rates, but thought this would bring some renewed perspective. Here is a chart of the 10 year Bond Yield dating back to the 1980s
Simplicity is king. 1) Rising wedge 2019 - 2022 - Jan 2022 breakout down. 2) Nasdaq is falling from a crazy over-priced high, big potential downside. 3) Descending trend-line of lower highs since breakout confirm down-trend. 4) Current trading range of the down-trend is 14,600 - 12,800 5) Break below 12,800 - 11,900 to 10,700 will very likely follow. 6)...
From 0.39% to 3.20%, bond yields made their largest climb in history. This kind of move and at these levels, bond yields are also tightening financial conditions. Bond yields have also circumvented some of the inflationary pressures. However, they must come down to stimulate growth and prevent an ugly recession.