"History doesn't always repeat, but it often rhymes."Ray Dalio often likes to talk about debt cycles. Specifically, he has referenced that our economic climate can be compared to 1937. Similarities: End of long-term debt cycle, interest rates approaching 0. Recent economic collapse (Great Depression of 1929-1932, Great Recession of 2008) Widening wealth...
BND bounced off a critical support corresponding to November 29th, 2007, the day that yields spiked after BND dropped and miraculously regained 7.5%. We see a downward trend forming in BND indicating a tendency toward rising rates while debts and deficits continue to set record highs. If the FED is not willing to significantly debase the dollar through record...
QCOM looks like it wants to test it's 2 year support at the $50 mark. Secondary support is somewhere around $43. QCOM is coming off of a finished head and shoulders pattern, making its D leg downward. Typically a D leg is finished by a sharp reversal. In case of negative earnings, QCOM will likely drop well below the $50 support and have a sharp reversal upward....
Guess myself and a very few group of others had underestimated the amount of faith in this market. I had wholeheartedly felt we would see the Dow cut short of the move towards the resistance line set by the other 3 peaks preceding. Though I had left room to suggest the possibility of this happening, I did have doubts and I did voice those doubts with others, so I...
Historically, when the FED decides to raise interest rates it ends up breaking the market. This happened in 2000 and 2008 with the solution being interest rate suppression and quantitative easing. Both of these methods produce abnormal rates of inflation, leading the FED to raise interest rates in an attempt to preserve the purchasing power of the dollar - and it...
Same idea as in previous chart. This is zoomed in to show the main points of resistance. 2 areas of concern with rising wedge in these recent times and stretched RSI. Very likely turnaround point in the next week or so. If it breaks past the fib line, then there will assuredly be snubbing right at the resistance line set by the previous peaks. The overall...
Say what you want about Bitcoin but it still beats out the risk in investing on traditional markets where rampant debt and risky products have over run the market not to mention volatile political situations. In math we trust
=> Yields are creeping higher one more time and we are starting to see major moves across equity markets as a result. => Smart money is afraid of inflation returning and therefore selling bonds is the go-to. This is causing yields to rise and because we are reaching the end of the road on QE, Central banks won't be buying bonds anymore and want to diminish their...
The 30 year treasury yield has traded under 3.25% for almost 4 years now. The Fed continues to hike rates on a quarterly basis and Trump is unhappy about rising rates. Every day we hear how the economy is 'in great shape', and jobs data is 'as good as it gets'. More significantly what is pushing up rates are increased treasury issuance and the Fed's...
This idea supports the previous interest rate outlook. I advise you to book profits on the idea given last September (see related) earlier than set target at 116'07 and this is why: The long-term trend together with the previous low offers strong support for the price and could reject the drop in the 117-118 area. In this area the wave C = 1.272 of wave A and this...
At the end of last September I called for the drop in the 10-year US T-notes with quite aggressive target (see related idea). In this and the next update I came to the thought that the drop could be over earlier as rates are reaching important resistance level. Despite the aggressive tone on the rate rise in US, I think the upside is limited based on this...
I don't know how long this perceived affluence will continue--but the days are numbered. Everything is overbought.
ECB President Mario Draghi and other EU authorities are telling Italian banks to sell their bad debts, since it’s choking their balance sheets to give new loans to new business, and support economic growth. The central bank insists it can solve the problem on its own. But let’s put a bit of meat on the issue: A problem of 379 Billion Dollar is not going to...
// If you honestly believe cryptos growth wasn't anything other than to bring forth a cashless society governed by the world banks / you thought they just would go down without a fight... I hope u truly start "reading the history books" But hey, don't listen to me, go all in and don't forget to also invest in those 1300 not at all similar crypto coins. Bubbles...
The journey of technology behemoth Apple, Inc. from Apple I to iPhone 7 has been a spectacular one. Its valuation crossed $800 billion this year and is onto becoming the first trillion-dollar company. It's not been a smooth ride all the way. Like every company, Apple too had to go through phases of ups and downs and failures. It too made products that flopped...
No liquidity, no volatility, Debt ceiling... Long Term Short
Will the Dollarindex manage to hold this crucial level or will it continue down from hitting the top of its long term downtrend channel ( formed since 80's )