This index just failed to break 17030 level, which is the bad news for Bearish traders.
Last week and next week, market will be pretty unreliable with the thin trading during the holiday week.
I am Only Slightly Bearish on this pair as Bull and Bear have pretty even percentage of winning. And we had lots of Smart Money's possible heavy buying near 15800 ...
1- SPX500 and DJ30 Both Making 3rd Mountain on Daily Charts.
2- RSI Getting Extremely negative on all Intervals.
3- High Volume on Supply Days.
4- Interest Rate Decision - (If Rises then will eat half QE3, If remains same then will make Concerns about Recovery)
5- Manufacturing Hits 6 Year Low.
6- India's Nifty Index Already at 24-Aug level (One of Strongest...
1. Bat Pattern completed on 3-Nov, Went Down After that but again bounced back.
2. Bearish Divergence in Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts.
3. FED meeting in December, Consumer Confidence & GDP Data on 24-Nov Employment on 4 Dec, Stocks tend to fall 20 days Prior to FED meeting (Just an Observation).
Scenario 1 - S&P will hit 20 Degree Slope @ 2100 and...
This simple RSI-MA long/short algorithm beats the Dow by a FREAKING HUGE margin over the past century (excluding dividends and trading costs).
The algorithm uses a fast SMA of the RSI as a buy/cover signal and a slow SMA of the RSI as a sell/short signal.
Backtest period = 09/17/1916 - 11/02/2015
DJIA = 98 --> 17,830 = +18,094% = 5.38% CAGR
Algorithm = net...
Looking for potential retracement high to Short the indices, with my main focus on DIA currently.
DIA staged a nice ABC-wave rally recovering from major pivot low of 150.5.
Currently looking ripe for a continuation of the underlying major correction from 183-150.
The 175-176 region is ultra significant, comprising of:
(i) previously surrendered H&S neckline,...
If we check INDEX:SPX supports we can see that the vertical trend is already broken but it's still doing some bullish movements.
We can also check that every October since 2013 were some kind of buttom and after that a rally till winter of more than 10% and less than 15% so... My bet is this.
S&P will go till 2130 by the end of the year and after that, double...
Time taken by current rally is 1.2720x of the previous rally (60*1.2720). RSI is also supporting bearish biased. We might see a strong sell-off in August or September 2015.
Levels on chart, estimated time for the downtrend conclusion is August 14th.
I'll be monitoring the support levels below to go long.
The boxes represent the earnings season range and I plotted the 50% level, as depicted in Tim West's publications. You can clearly see the reaction to it in the chart.
I also added the 66, 253, 50 and 200 EMAs as well as the options...
Dow has been in a long term uptrend and has been squeezing up between trend lines that it has been bouncing up and down. The question is will it continue doing so and if yes for how long as the space is almost squeezed out. The next deciding level for DOW is around 18550 to 18700. That is when it has to decide either to break out, continue consolidation by going...
A very strong resistance for DOWI at 18610 and a clear HS pattern forming !! Go short around 18610 and add more at 18793 for targets of 17063 and then a rebound till 18000 !!
The primary trend on the Dow Jones Industrial is bullish. Intermediate is neutral (for now) and the minor trend is bullish. Since the santa rally of 2014, the DOW has experienced a sideways distribution phase, which was choppy and volatile. If the DOW closes above 17,959.87 I will have a bullish perspective and only get into protective puts to protect against pull...
Charts are telling us to be very cautious, as soon as we get the 1st dip in the RED line below zero mark, we shall expect a convincing bounce only to find more panic ahead. ONLY time will tell when we get that scare drop....
Considering where we are today, probability of making significant NEW HIGH is very LOW, however a marginal NEW HIGH cannot be rules out....
We are now in unfamiliar territory.
The MACD technical indicator Moving averages has crossed over above 120 points 22 times since 2003.
Of those, 22 times, 19 of them led to at least a mild pullback within a month.
3 times it moved sideways or down where no money could have been made at all within one month.
The MACD has crossed over 200 points 6 times...
Trading near the channel and the neckline resistance, Short term trend is down and any recovery may face sell offs again. Yes there is short covering or fresh buying seen from lower levels but I feel with smaller stops this trade is worth taking a chance.
Regards,
SP
CapitalTA
DAX Resistance
The DAX is currently in a very strong resistance zone. In fact many of the largest stock indices are also in the same position please also see my trade on the FTSE (Global Equities Turn-Around)
It has touched this level 2 other times this year, we have seen several retracements on the dax this year and this seems to be where it stops the...
Here is my logic:
1. Fundamentals don't support record highs. High stock prices don't represent real economic activity. Unemployment. situation still not pre-crises levels yet prices are way above that.
2. Oil showing lack of demand.
3. US dollar becoming more expensive. End of low exchange rate.
4. China weakening as well as imports.
5. End of easy money and fed...
This chart and my conclusion based on my analysis might be very perplexing to many Fundamental Analysts and to Japan's Prime Minster Abe as net results of his 3 prong attack fails to produce desired results.
Many, bullish fund managers will be mystified as was the case in 1992 when the initial decline of all time high was only seen as just a setback and a buying...
