I need to look at where we are pattern wise....but whereas I have been looking for the perfect pattern lower into the 3700 area...I have to come around to the fact I'm wrong. I will not fight price. I have not added to my position but still own my 4300 calls short for EOM Feb. I'll have a more in-depth update in the morning. Any pressing questions please post...
I will recap the Thought Experiment in another post...but what is most timely is 4132-4136 is an area I may add to ES shorts....but on a very tight lease. Stay Tuned for a later update. Best to all, Chris IMPORTANT NOTE: SOMETIME BETWEEN MID AND END OF FEBRUARY I WILL ONLY BE POSTING ONCE PER WEEK HERE ON TRADING VIEW. I WILL ONLY BE DOING WEEKEND...
Let's do this early? Huh? I'll be able to sleep in tomorrow morning...yeah!!!!!!!!! First, Let’s revisit some things for new readers of my work. On occasion I will make a detailed, but educated, guess on the direction of the markets strictly based off the charts. Typically, these would be done on days of perceived high volatility due to some news or event...
I guess that's the big question...Have we Topped, or does this rally continue? Although we end up in the same place, the green b-wave (is the black count) it just supposes we topped already and the ending diagonal will eventually become invalidated. I placed that b-wave there ONLY because we have a full pattern as of now. But not to get ahead of myself so far...
This morning the ES is declining just below the ideal spot to continue to support this ED pattern. Last night I advertently type 3990 for ED invalidation. Its 3980. 3980 represents the .884% retracement area and last fib retracement and a very uncommon area used by Elliottitions . This decline should ideally hold the .618% - .786% zone. Nonetheless, if for...
Judging by what I see in all tier-1 crypto I have decided to trim holdings. I know this is an about-face for most who read me. However I must emphasize, this is for risk management purposes more than anything ominous. This morning I sold 3,000 SOL and 10,000 ADA. I still hold 4,000 SOL and 10,000 ADA. My holdings have doubled so these are mostly free trades...
Today we got a little retrace and so far our Ending Diagonal pattern is intact. This would mean we should get one more high into the 4130-4170 area but well within the confines of the trendlines. If the ED is playing out then price should come into the .618% of the previous move up which would be 4018-4021 area and bounce to approximately the 4130-4170 area. ...
I had some requests to update my Solana Count. We have topped in our wave 1 as I now have a full pattern and retracing our c wave down in wave 2. To repeat, wave 2's can be deep or shallow so there's a large ideal wave 2 bottoming area. I do want to point out that our b of 2 did make a slightly higher high which could portend a flat for c of 2...so it is...
This morning the ES futures are down -43.50 to 4040.75 or just over 1%. I would venture a guess this is repositioning on the heels on Fridays OPEX. This micro structure is underdetermined to be impulsive or corrective as of my morning update. Below shows the difference. I am still unclear as to what this larger pattern will ultimately conclude as. First...
THIS IS A LONG POST SO IF YOURE NOT A BIG READER THIS IS YOUR WARNING: Today I wanted to try something different and look at the cash market and go through all the scenarios objectively. For those traders who have ever wondered which chart is the chart to determine the direction of the SP500, the SPX cash market or the ES futures ? It's the SPX cash...
I received a request to update this chart. Thank you @Braeden2 The US30Y held it's wave 4 bottom in the .382% area of wave 3. The last time I posted this chart we had not yet embarked on our 5-wave pattern higher in what I'm counting as a wave 5. Today we see we have a wave 1 and 2 in place. Additionally, you'll notice how our recent wave 4 structure...
Let me be clear. Sometimes we feel very confident about the market pattern we're trading and on other occasions we don't. For me, this would be the latter. That's why I primarily sell OTM futures options. Today, we didn't get any definitive clues. I'm sure this choppy action is like death by a thousand cuts for traders on either side of the market. But I...
Last night I had a social event to attend. A lot of market talk with different opinions...some very dire, some very rosy. I'm thinking to myself the market sure has people guessing right now. I had some DM's asking about being in other patterns that suggest we're moving higher...no doubt because they've been exposed to other analysis. Me on the other hand, I...
Bitcoin has rallied nicely off it's November bottom completing an impulsive 5-wave pattern. That's the good news. What's next? We should expect a retrace. If we retrace correctively in an ABC pattern into the target box, then impulsively breach the wave 1 high recently struck, Bitcoin could breach the $26,000 giving us our first clue we may have bottomed. ...
Current in scope Elliott Wave Impulse Waves 1 to 5. Currently within the Corrective Wave. Used Trend Based Fib Extension Tool to determine the bottom retracement levels of the Corrective Wave A, drawing from 1st High to Low to 2nd High on a 90 minute time frame. - 1st Highs drawn from Wave 5 high. - The low being 22,750 and yet to understand why that level at...
Raised $8,679 in Premium for next months P&L. Here's what changed for me today. Yesterday I said if price breached 4055 I need to see it take out the red trend line. I've been seeing the beginnings of an ending diagonal for a while. The overlap in the beginning when I said these patterns are not going to put us in jeopardy of price getting away from...
I've discussed in the past about technicians and elliotitions getting married to analysis. This is easy to do even for the most experienced analysts. Just the psychology of bottoming and topping turning points Elliott mused that at turning points, traders can't let go of their attachments to the previous trend and before they realize that trend ended, the new...