This morning the ES is declining just below the ideal spot to continue to support this ED pattern. Last night I advertently type 3990 for ED invalidation. Its 3980. 3980 represents the .884% retracement area and last fib retracement and a very uncommon area used by Elliottitions. This decline should ideally hold the .618% - .786% zone. Nonetheless, if for some reason price breaches 3980 today this ED count will be invalidated. So far, I believe this move down will hold at 4008-4009 which is the 1.0 extension of this decline from Friday's peak of 4109.25.
Below is a close up of the ED.
www.tradingview.com/...AsfRHlRG-ed-1-31-23/
You can see after the 1-2, each subsequent retracement should land within the ideal area of the .50% and the .786% Fib Retracement. Our b of c of 3 landed right at the .618%. We are just below the .618% retracement now for our wave 4. The .786% resides at 3994, .884% at 3980. In my opinion, below the .786% by much is a big clue this will not complete as an ED. So this ED could be on shaky ground...but let's see if today provides further clues for tomorrow.
In the 4008-4009 I may open a small long position. I’ll update if I do.
Tomorrow's morning update will be my Thought Experiment for Fed Day. Thanks to all for participating last night.
Best to all,
Chris
IMPORTANT NOTE:
SOMETIME BETWEEN MID AND END OF FEBRUARY I WILL ONLY BE POSTING ONCE PER WEEK HERE ON TRADING VIEW. I WILL ONLY BE DOING WEEKEND UPDATES. THE MORNING, EVENING AND SPECIAL UPDATES YOU HAVE RECEIVED IN THE PAST WILL NO LONGER HAPPEN. AS I GET CLOSER TO CHANGING MY POSTING SCHEDULE ON TRADINGVIEW.COM I WILL UPDATE MY FOLLOWERS HERE.
Below is a close up of the ED.
www.tradingview.com/...AsfRHlRG-ed-1-31-23/
You can see after the 1-2, each subsequent retracement should land within the ideal area of the .50% and the .786% Fib Retracement. Our b of c of 3 landed right at the .618%. We are just below the .618% retracement now for our wave 4. The .786% resides at 3994, .884% at 3980. In my opinion, below the .786% by much is a big clue this will not complete as an ED. So this ED could be on shaky ground...but let's see if today provides further clues for tomorrow.
In the 4008-4009 I may open a small long position. I’ll update if I do.
Tomorrow's morning update will be my Thought Experiment for Fed Day. Thanks to all for participating last night.
Best to all,
Chris
IMPORTANT NOTE:
SOMETIME BETWEEN MID AND END OF FEBRUARY I WILL ONLY BE POSTING ONCE PER WEEK HERE ON TRADING VIEW. I WILL ONLY BE DOING WEEKEND UPDATES. THE MORNING, EVENING AND SPECIAL UPDATES YOU HAVE RECEIVED IN THE PAST WILL NO LONGER HAPPEN. AS I GET CLOSER TO CHANGING MY POSTING SCHEDULE ON TRADINGVIEW.COM I WILL UPDATE MY FOLLOWERS HERE.
Comment:
I’m now long 3 ES contracts at 4008. My stop on these contracts is 4000 for right now. This trade is more so a hedge on my short calls and my goal is not necessarily to profit from this position.
Comment:
Stop is now my buy in price for a free trade.
Comment:
Stop moved to 4010.
Comment:
Stop now moved to 4018
Comment:
Sold ES position at 4057
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