Put Option' Premiums are cheap compared to the chance of having a pullback. RSI in overbought ranges. Volume has been decreasing for the last weeks. Entry Level: 4130 Stop Loss set at 4220 . First Take Profit at 4050 . Second Take Profit at 3980 . *Important to pay attention to the price action at the level of 4050. If it is recovered quickly,...
🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ On Friday the S&P500 held above short-term support on top of the trading range although it did give up earlier gains. That is not unsurprising as I did expect the support to be tested. The major feature was the collapse of the VIX to relatively low levels. My "A Regime Shift" post (linked) delves into what this may mean. ➤ A quick...
CME_MINI:ES1! ES1! SPX500USD 2023 APR 17 WEEK Friday's bar closed below 4175 and showed a rejection of higher prices. Scenario Planning: 1) Rejection short at 4175 2) Market rotation continues = trade at boundary (80pt range) of range (grey box) 3) Rotation breakout long at support of 4175 Volume Analysis: Weekly: Ave vol up bar close off high = minor...
Big picture charts always supersede short term charts. Many day traders think that just because they are short term traders they don't need to look at the big picture charts, but in order to be a better executor of your short term strategy you need to understand the context of the current market environment. Should I be smaller and quicker to cover my trades?...
good eve' --- don't think i've ever shared my bull macro dxy outlook, so here it is. --- won't give you any reasoning behind this theory as i am not a fundamentalist or anything - just a data scientist who makes predictions using the stars. --- i'm theorizing that the us dollar hits 131 (at the minimum) by 2028. this will be devastating for the global markets. ✌
The S&P500 crossed this week over the LH trendline of the August 15th rejection on the 1W MA50. Proportionally this can be compared to the April 18th 2016 breakout. The key for a sustainable uptrend on that occasion was the 1W MA50. It held twice and sustained a long term uptrend. With the 1W technicals turning marginally bullish (RSI = 56.614, MACD = 37.390, ADX...
Today's CPI data (down to 5.0% from 6.0% YoY) created interesting and actionable price action this morning... more on my thoughts about it later. Technically the data release created a Spike Alert by punching through the pre-market high and then closing back inside it before the cash open. This is happening within two important contexts: A double top for...
ES1! Fibonacci Levels on 6wk horizon. Confluence observed with PA in sustained level between Key SMAS 20, 200. Confluence observed with 0.618 and 0.5 with areas of fair value. Reliability of measure supported using linear regression with pearsons r of 0.97554. A bear flag would be confirmed with breach of sigma 2 :3888.50 and KLs 3973.75, 3515.50 (and rediscovery...
Both ES and NQ MFI very overbought, market back to red They did the "not as bad as expected" pump on retail, lol. I added more puts. Fortunately I went with next week's puts instead of doing a one day "all or nothing" trade. ES still needs a gap fill and the fact that they did a "not as bad as expected" pump on retail tells me it's a bull market and ES will...
this is apr 14, 2023 levels for NQ ES CL BTC watch the table left side for trade, right side for trend
So I sat out all of the last two days. I wanted to see some of this rally falter, it did, but then I decided I would wait another day to see how the market reacted, and we end up skyrocketing on low volume yet again. The movement up did give us a Daily Uptrend on the ESM contract, instead of just the ES! overlay. I decided to mark that location since so far the...
gm, i called both the bottom in 2021, and the top last year on the dxy (view posts at the bottom of this thread). very few people heard my voice - swinging by into the public communities to share this very general post today. --- dxy came down in 5 waves from my upside target, seemingly. possible w5 isn't in yet as it could see a slight extension - also...
Luxury shares boost Europe's STOXX 600, French stock index TVC:CAC40 hit new record high. European shares climbed on Thursday on a boost from luxury stocks after XETR:MOH posted upbeat first-quarter sales, while hopes of a pause in the Federal Reserve's rate hikes after signs of cooling U.S. inflation also aided sentiment. 👉 The pan-European STOXX 600 rose...
The S&P500 index (SPX) is trading on a multi-year Channel Up pattern that started on the March 2009 bottom of the Housing (subprime mortgage) Crisis. With all the talk lately on whether or not the index is out of its Bear Phase, this chart can offer great insight on the long-term trend. As you see, it shows that the Bear Market's bottom was priced in September...
CME_MINI:ES1! So I opened the chart at the weekend and flicked through the time frames and upon punching the Weekly I noticed the 21EMA and the 89EMAs were pretty tight. I decided the rest of the morning looking through the historical relationship of these two EMAs. It turns out that each time the 21EMA has come down to the 89EMA, there has been a violent...
🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Yesterday I said narrow price ranges don't last long. It lasted a day more than I had hoped for but today we saw the break through. S&P500 broke above the short-term trading range. Not only that, it also broke an assortment of resistance levels. ➤ Before we get carried away, we should note that there is usually a test of the support...
RSI about to hit overbought with MFI divergence. Still bearish on retail for tomorrow, I think even if the market goes up, retail will be a drag, Retail tends to impact small caps more than SPX though. Added to my XRT puts earlier. that's all I'm playing overnight.
"Inflation Peaked" Relief v/s "Recession Onset" Concern With the CPI and FOMC minutes almost confirming the cooling off of the inflation and potential "mild" recession, markets are on-and-off with the sense of relief for a day and with the sense of concern another day. The imminent earnings season should help decide which way the sentiment would settle towards....