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GAMMA SQUEEZE: Why Gold Prices will hit 5 000 + USDBottom line If 1% of Treasuries ($278B) rotates into gold, $5,000/oz is not only plausible—it sits inside the low end of what flow math + today’s market microstructure can deliver. The path (and whether we print $8k+ spikes) hinges on how much of that flow shows up as short-dated calls—because that is what turns steady demand into a self-feeding gamma loop. ________________________________________ Executive summary • A 1% rotation out of U.S. Treasuries is roughly $278B of new gold demand (using SIFMA’s latest estimate that Treasuries outstanding ≈ $27.8T). • At today’s context (gold ~$3.53k/oz on Sep 2–5, 2025), $278B buys ~79.4M oz ≈ 2,471 tonnes; at $5k/oz it buys ~55.6M oz ≈ 1,729 tonnes. For scale, annual mine supply ≈ 3,661 t and total above-ground stocks ≈ 216,265 t (bars/coins+ETFs ≈ 48,634 t). • That flow is huge relative to both quarterly demand value (Q2’25 ≈ $132B) and typical daily trading turnover (~$290B/day across OTC, futures & ETFs). Even spread out, it materially tilts the tape; if concentrated and routed via options, it can produce dealer hedging feedback—i.e., a gamma squeeze. • Price targets (framework, not prophecy): o Conservative flow-only: +40–60% → $4,900–$5,600/oz o Base case (flow + some options reflexivity): +70–110% → $6,000–$7,500/oz o Squeeze/overshoot window (short-dated calls heavy): episodic spikes >$8,000/oz possible, but hard to sustain without continued flow. These bands come from scaling prior ETF-driven episodes (notably ~877 t ETF inflow in 2020 alongside a ~+36% price run) and sizing against current market depth, while layering a realistic options-hedging multiplier (details below). ________________________________________ 1) What a “gamma squeeze” in gold means (and why it can happen) Definition (in one line): When call buying concentrates near-dated, near-the-money strikes, dealers short gamma must buy futures as price rises (and sell if it falls) to keep neutral—this feedback accelerates upside (“gamma squeeze”). Why it’s plausible in gold right now: • The listed derivatives stack is large. As of Fri, Sep 5, 2025, CME’s daily bulletin shows COMEX gold options open interest ~0.80M contracts (calls ~0.49–0.69M; puts ~0.30–0.38M depending on line item), each on 100 oz—i.e., option OI notionally ties to ~2,400–2,800 t of gold. That is the powder keg a call-wave can act on. • Implied vol is moderate (GVZ ~18 for 30-day GLD options), so vega is “affordable,” gamma is punchy in the front end. • CME’s CVOL framework and open-interest tools confirm where strikes/expiries cluster; when OI stacks close to spot and near expiry, market-wide gamma becomes most sensitive. Back-of-envelope hedging math (illustrative): For a 30-day, at-the-money option with σ≈18%, the Black-Scholes gamma is about Γ≈ϕ(0)SσT≈0.399S⋅0.18⋅30/365\Gamma \approx \frac{\phi(0)}{S\sigma\sqrt{T}} \approx \frac{0.399}{S\cdot 0.18 \cdot \sqrt{30/365}}. At S=$3,500/oz, that’s ~0.0022 per $. A +1% move (+$35) bumps delta by ~0.077 per option. If just 150k near-ATM front-tenor calls are held by customers (dealers short gamma), hedge buying ≈ 150,000 × 100 oz × 0.077 ≈ 1.16M oz ≈ 36 t—per 1% price pop. That’s only a slice of total OI; a broader crowding raises this number. Compare with ~2,500 t/day of global turnover and you can see how concentrated dealer hedging can move price intraday. ________________________________________ 2) Sizing a 1% Treasury → gold rotation Treasury base: latest SIFMA comment put U.S. Treasuries outstanding ≈ $27.8T (Q1’25). 1% → $278B. Gold the rotation would buy: • At $3,500/oz: $278B → ~79.4M oz → ~2,471 t • At $5,000/oz: $278B → ~55.6M oz → ~1,729 t For scale: • Annual mine supply (2024): ~3,661 t; total supply (incl. recycling): ~4,974 t. A $278B buy ticket equals 47–67% of a year’s mine output (depending on price), or ~35–50% of total annual supply. • ETF precedent: In 2020, ~877 t net ETF inflow (~$48B) coincided with a ~+36% move from Jan→Aug 2020. Today’s $278B is ~5–6× that dollar size (and ~2–3× the tonnes, depending on price), hinting at large flow-driven upside even before any options reflexivity. • Turnover lens: WGC puts average daily trading across OTC/futures/ETFs at roughly $290B/day recently. A $278B program is ~one day’s global turnover. Pushed quickly (or skewed to options), that’s impactful; stretched over months, the price impact softens but still accumulates. Futures-only lens (capacity check): At $3,500/oz, one COMEX GC contract notionally = $350k (100 oz). $278B equals ~794k GC contracts. Current futures OI is ~0.49M contracts, so this exceeds all COMEX OI—you cannot push that much via futures quickly without major repricing. Even at $5,000/oz (~$500k/contract), it’s ~556k contracts, still comparable to the entire OI. ________________________________________ 3) Price-target framework (with the math that gets you there) Think of the price in layers: (A) base flow impact + (B) options-gamma reflexivity + (C) second-round effects (short-covering, momentum, FX, central banks). A) Flow-only impact (calibrated to 2020) • 2020 anchor: 877 t ETF inflow ↔ ~+36% price. Using a simple proportionality, 1,729–2,471 t (your $278B) maps to ~+71% to +101%. • Apply to spot ≈ $3,532/oz (early Sep 2025): o +71% → ~$6,050/oz o +101% → ~$7,100/oz Caveat: 2020 had unique macro tailwinds, so I treat this as upper-middle of base range. B) Options reflexivity / gamma squeeze overlay If 20–30% of the $278B rotation expresses via short-dated calls (common for levered macro expressions), dealer hedging can amplify flow impact: • From the OI math earlier, a mere 1% up-move can demand ~20–40 t of dealer hedge buying if near-ATM OI is thick. A 3–5% multi-day grind can easily cascade into 100–200 t of incremental buying from hedgers alone. That’s non-trivial vs. mine supply pace, and it pulls forward upside. • Result: add another +10–20% to the flow-only levels during a squeeze while it lasts. C) Second-round effects • Central banks: still persistent net buyers (>1,000 t/yr pace in recent years), tending to fade dips rather than rallies—a structural bid. • FX & rates: the GVZ ~18 regime means bursts of vol aren’t “expensive”; a weakening USD or policy shocks can tilt the target higher. Putting it together—scenario bands Scenario Assumptions Implied move Target Conservative $278B spread over 6–9 months, mostly physical/ETFs; limited options +40–60% $4,900–$5,600 Base case 50–70% to physical/ETFs, 30–50% to futures/options; moderate dealer short-gamma +70–110% $6,000–$7,500 Squeeze / overshoot Short-dated call concentration, dealers persistently short gamma; flow bunches in weeks +120–>150% (episodic) >$8,000 (brief spikes) $5,000 target is well within the conservative band if any meaningful fraction of the $278B pushes through quickly, even without a full-blown gamma loop. ________________________________________ 4) Why the market could mechanically gap higher • Market size vs. flow: Q2’25 total demand value = $132B. Dropping $278B into this ecosystem is a 2× quarterly shock. • Trading capacity: $278B ≈ one full day of global turnover; price impact is convex when the risk-absorption (dealers, miners, recyclers) cannot scale linearly day-by-day. • Derivatives gearing: With ~0.8M options contracts OI outstanding and futures OI ~0.49M, even a partial shift into calls forces hedge-buys on the way up, the hallmark of a squeeze. ________________________________________ 5) Key risks / reality checks • Time profile of the rotation matters. A slow, programmatic shift spreads impact; a front-loaded move can overshoot then mean-revert as gamma decays. • Elasticity is asymmetric. Jewelry/fabrication falls at high prices (demand destruction), recycling rises, both cushioning extremes. That moderates how long >$7k can persist without continued flow. • Volatility regimes change. If GVZ spikes to high-20s/30s, option premia jump, slowing new call demand; conversely, put demand can flip net gamma long for dealers, dampening squeezes. ________________________________________ References (most load-bearing) • Treasury base: SIFMA—Treasuries outstanding $27.8T (Feb 2025). • Gold supply & stocks: WGC—Above-ground stock 216,265 t (end-2024); bars/coins+ETFs 48,634 t; mine supply 2024 ≈ 3,661 t. • Trading turnover: WGC—gold trading ≈ $290B/day. • ETF precedent: WGC—2020 ETF inflows 877 t (~$47.9B) alongside major price rise. • Current price context: Reuters—record highs $3,532/oz set in early Sep 2025. ( • Options/hedging plumbing: CME daily bulletin (Sep 5, 2025) showing gold options OI ~0.8M contracts; CME CVOL/tools; Cboe GVZ ~18 as 30-day IV. ________________________________________
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ProjectSyndicate
35
NAS100 - Stock Market, Waiting for Inflation Index?!The index is above EMA200 and EMA50 on the one-hour timeframe and is in its long-term ascending channel. If the drawn upward trend line is maintained, we can expect Nasdaq to reach its previous ATH. In case of its valid breakdown, its downward path will be smoothed to the specified demand zone, where it can be bought with appropriate risk-reward. U.S. equities closed lower on Friday after a volatile session, capping off a turbulent week in negative territory. Initially, weaker-than-expected employment data fueled optimism that the Federal Reserve would move toward further rate cuts. However, growing fears of an economic recession quickly overshadowed that optimism and pushed the indexes into the red. Following the labor market report, expectations for a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting are now virtually certain. The main question, however, is how fast subsequent cuts might unfold. Some analysts have even floated the possibility of a surprise 50-basis-point cut on September 17. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, speaking at the Jackson Hole symposium, stressed that risks stemming from labor market weakness may now outweigh inflation risks—a factor that could justify a shift in the central bank’s policy approach. Nick Timiraos, a prominent Wall Street Journal reporter closely tracking Fed policy, noted that the sharp slowdown in job growth over the summer has likely cemented the Fed’s decision to cut rates by 25 basis points in the upcoming meeting. Still, he made no explicit mention of a 50-basis-point move. While markets have raised the probability of that scenario to 14%, Timiraos believes the main focus remains on a more moderate reduction. He also observed that the latest jobs report has deepened uncertainty over the pace and scope of cuts beyond September—a challenge that policymakers and markets will grapple with in the months ahead. Barclays Bank now projects the Fed will lower rates three times in 2025—each time by 25 basis points in September, October, and December. This is an upward revision from its earlier forecast of just two cuts in September and December. President Donald Trump once again lashed out at Fed policy in a post on his social media platform, writing: “Jerome Powell should have cut rates long ago. But as usual, he has acted too late.” Meanwhile, mounting concerns over ballooning fiscal deficits—not only in the U.S. but also in countries like Japan, France, and the U.K.—have placed added pressure on long-dated bonds. The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury briefly climbed to a one-and-a-half-month high last week. At the same time, the Treasury Department plans to issue new three-year, ten-year, and thirty-year securities next week, an event that could further fuel volatility in the bond market. The coming week will be light in terms of data volume, yet the few scheduled releases will carry significant weight as inflation once again takes center stage. On Wednesday, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for August will be published. Forecasts suggest both the headline and core readings will show sharp declines compared to July. On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) will hold its policy meeting, where markets currently expect the deposit rate to remain unchanged at 2.15%. Shortly afterward, traders will turn their attention to the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August, along with weekly jobless claims data—closely monitored for signs of potential weakness in the U.S. labor market. Finally, on Friday, the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will be released. This survey has been a particularly important gauge of inflation expectations this year, offering deeper insights into how U.S. households perceive price trends. The PPI, which reflects changes in goods prices at the factory gate, often provides more forward-looking signals than the CPI. As shown in July’s data, any unexpected surge in August’s numbers could temper investors’ optimism about the pace of rate cuts. For now, the impact of tariffs on goods prices appears limited, while the Fed’s main concern remains the risk of renewed inflationary pressures in the services sector. According to the Cleveland Fed’s Nowcast model, headline inflation rose 0.1% in August to reach an annualized rate of 2.8%, while core inflation held steady at 3.1%.
CAPITALCOM:US100
by Ali_PSND
Will Fed rate cut expectations continue to fuel US equity gains? US August job growth missed expectations, highlighting labor market weakness, while rising Fed rate cut odds kept equities higher. Broadcom (AVGO) delivered strong 3Q earnings with robust AI-driven growth and issued an upbeat 4Q revenue forecast. Despite valuation concerns, Morgan Stanley (MS) expects multiple Fed cuts to sustain equity gains and views September dips as buying opportunities. US500 extended its uptrend, briefly setting a new high. The index remains within the ascending channel and above both EMAs, signaling the potential extension of bullish momentum. If US500 holds above EMA21, the index may breach the 6530 high. Conversely, if US500 breaks below EMA21 and the channel’s lower bound, the index could retreat toward the support at 6340.
CAPITALCOM:US500
by inkicho_exness
USDJPY Primed for Push Higher! Ascending Channel & Bullish🔮 USDJPY Technical Forecast & Trading Strategy | Week of Sept 6th, 2025 Current Spot Price: 147.385 | CFD | Date: Sept 6, 2025 🟢 Overall Bias: BULLISH | The pair is trading within a clear bullish structure on higher timeframes. All pullbacks are currently being bought, indicating strong underlying demand. 📊 Multi-Timeframe Technical Breakdown 1. Chart Pattern & Theory Convergence: 🚩 Bullish Continuation Patterns: The price action from the August low exhibits characteristics of a Bull Flag or an Ascending Channel. A clean break above the 148.00 resistance would confirm this pattern and open a path significantly higher. 📐 Gann Theory & Square of 9: The current price is consolidating near a key Gann angle. A hold above 147.00 is crucial for the bulls to maintain control and propel price towards the next Gann objective near 148.80-149.20. 🌊 E lliott Wave Theory: The rally from the late August low is impulsive in nature, suggesting this is part of a larger Wave 3 or Wave C push higher. Any dip is likely a Wave 4 correction before a final Wave 5 thrust. ☁️ Ichimoku Kinko Hyo: A strongly bullish configuration. The price is well above the Kumo (Cloud), the Tenkan-sen (9) is above the Kijun-sen (26), and the Cloud itself is bullish. This is a classic trend-following signal. 2. Key Indicator Signals: 📶 RSI (14): On the 4H chart, the RSI is holding firmly in bullish territory (above 50) and has not reached overbought (>70) levels, suggesting there is more room for the trend to run. 🟢 📏 Bollinger Bands (20,2): Price is riding the upper band, a sign of strong momentum. Any pullback would likely find support at the middle band (20 SMA ~146.80), which is rising. ⚖️ VWAP & Anchored VWAP: The price is trading well above the daily and weekly VWAP, confirming that the trend is strong and the average participant is long and in profit. 📈 Moving Averages: The key EMA's (50, 100, 200) are all bullishly aligned and acting as dynamic support. The 50 EMA on the 4H chart (~146.90) is a key level for bulls to defend. 3. Critical Support & Resistance: 🎯 Immediate Resistance: 148.00 (Psychological, Recent High) 🎯 Key Resistance: 149.20 - 149.50 (Gann Target, Previous Swing High) 🛡️ Immediate Support: 147.00 - 146.90 (Previous Resistance, 50 EMA) 🛡️ Strong Support: 146.20 - 146.00 (Kijun-sen, Key Fibonacci Level) 🛡️ Major Support: 145.00 (Top of Ichimoku Cloud) ⚡ Trading Strategies & Setups A. Intraday Trading (5M - 1H Charts): Strategy: Look for long opportunities on dips towards support. Use bullish candlestick patterns (Hammer, Bullish Engulfing) near the 147.00 or 146.90 levels for high-probability entries. Long Entry (Ideal): ~147.10 - 146.95 | Stop Loss: 146.60 | Take Profit 1: 147.80 | Take Profit 2: 148.50 Breakout Long: On a decisive break and hold above 148.10, with a target of 148.80. B. Swing Trading (4H - D Charts): Strategy: The bullish structure and Ichimoku alignment favor continued upside. Any dip into support is a potential buying opportunity for a larger move. Swing Long Entry: On a pullback to 146.90-146.70 (Buy the Dip) OR a daily close above 148.20 (Breakout Buy). Stop Loss: Below 146.20 | Target 1: 149.20 | Target 2: 150.00+ Bearish Invalidation: A decisive break and close below 145.80 (into the cloud) would invalidate the immediate bullish bias and signal a deeper correction. 🌍 Market Context & Risk Factors Interest Rate Divergence: This is the core driver. The pair is highly sensitive to the US Dollar (USD) strength and Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy. Hawkish Fed rhetoric vs. dovish BoJ stance is profoundly bullish for USDJPY. 👁️ Watch for any unexpected BoJ intervention hints. Risk Sentiment: Traditionally a "risk-off" proxy, but currently driven more by yield differentials. Monitor global equity markets and geopolitical events for sudden flight-to-safety flows into the JPY. ✅ Key Takeaways: The Trend is Your Friend! 🐂 All higher-timeframe signals point to a robust bullish trend. Ichimoku is Bullish. The price above a bullish cloud is a strong trend-confirmation signal. Buy the Dips. The strategy favors entering on short-term weakness toward support rather than chasing the breakout. Mind the BoJ. The largest risk is verbal or physical intervention from the Bank of Japan, which can cause violent, sharp reversals. For individuals seeking to enhance their trading abilities based on the analyses provided, I recommend exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya Trade. (Website: shunya dot trade) I would appreciate your feedback on this analysis, as it will serve as a valuable resource for future endeavors. Sincerely, Shunya.Trade Website: shunya dot trade ⚠️Disclaimer: This post is intended solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed herein are derived from technical analysis and are shared for informational purposes only. The stock market inherently carries risks, including the potential for capital loss. Therefore, readers are strongly advised to exercise prudent judgment before making any investment decisions. We assume no liability for any actions taken based on this content. For personalized guidance, it is recommended to consult a certified financial advisor.
by sunya
EURUSD Technical Analysis & Trading Strategy 📊 EURUSD Technical Analysis & Trading Strategy | Week of Sept 6th, 2025 Asset: EURUSD CFD | Spot Price: 1.17208 (as of Sept 6th, 2025, 12:54 AM UTC+4) | Timeframe: Intraday & Swing 🎯 Executive Summary (TL;DR) EURUSD is at a critical 🔄 juncture! Our multi-indicator analysis reveals a market in consolidation following a recent bearish impulse. Key 🎯 harmonic and Gann-based support converges near 1.16800. A break below could trigger a sell-off towards 1.1600, while a hold could spark a bullish correction towards 1.1800. This week is pivotal for direction! ⚔️ 📈 Detailed Technical Breakdown 1. Chart Pattern & Theory Analysis 📉 Elliott Wave Theory: The price action from the August high suggests we are in a corrective wave (likely Wave 4 or a bearish Wave C). The structure is complex, indicating potential exhaustion of the current move. 🦀 Harmonic Patterns: A potential Bullish Bat Pattern 🦇 is completing near the 1.1680-1.1700 zone. This is a key PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone) with a high probability of a bullish reversal. 🧮 W.D. Gann Analysis: Applying the Square of 9 and Gann angles, the price is testing a vital support angle. A daily close below 1.1700 would be a strong bearish signal according to Gann time-price theory, opening the path downward. ⛰️ Head and Shoulders: A smaller, intraday Head and Shoulders pattern is forming on the 4H chart. A break below the neckline (approx. 1.1700) would confirm this bearish reversal pattern, projecting a target towards 1.1650. ⚖️ Wyckoff Theory: The chart shows signs of a re-distribution phase. We are watching for a Sign of Weakness (SOW) or a Spring (a false breakdown below support) that could indicate the next major move. 2. Key Support & Resistance Levels 🧱 Immediate Resistance: 1.17500 (Previous Support turned Resistance) 🎯 Strong Resistance: 1.18000 (Psychological Level & 50-Day EMA) 🛡️ Immediate Support: 1.17000 (Psychological & Pattern Confluence) 🎯 Strong Support: 1.16800 (Harmonic & Gann Confluence Zone) 🚨 Major Support: 1.16000 (Weekly Swing Low) 3. Indicator & Momentum Outlook 📶 RSI (14): Currently reading 42 on the 4H chart. This indicates a neutral-to-bearish bias with room to move lower before hitting oversold territory (<30). 📊 Bollinger Bands (20): Price is trading in the lower half of the bands, indicating bearish pressure. A squeeze is evident, suggesting a volatility expansion is imminent. A move towards the middle band (20-SMA) is likely on any bounce. 💹 Moving Averages: The 50-EMA (1.1790) and 200-EMA (1.1755) are both above the current price, confirming the short-term bearish trend. A ** bearish cross** (50-EMA crossing below 200-EMA) is not yet in play but is being watched closely. 🏢 VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price): The price is trading below the daily VWAP, indicating that buyers from this period are at a loss—a bearish sentiment. The Anchored VWAP from the last high shows significant selling pressure. ⏰ Trading Strategy & Forecast A) Intraday Trading (5M - 1H Charts) 🎯 🔻 Bearish Scenario (Breakdown): A break and close below 1.17000 could signal a short opportunity. Target: 1.16800 (initial), then 1.16500. Stop Loss: just above 1.17250. 🔺 Bullish Scenario (Bounce): A hold above 1.17000 with a bullish reversal candlestick (e.g., Hammer, Engulfing) could signal a long scalp. Target: 1.17500 (resistance). Stop Loss: below 1.16850. B) Swing Trading (4H - Daily Charts) 📅 🔄 Outlook: The swing bias remains cautiously bearish until price reclaims the 1.1800 level. Entry (Short) : A retest of 1.1750-1.1780 (failed resistance) could offer a high-probability short entry for a swing down towards 1.1600. Entry (Long): Aggressive bulls could look for long entries near 1.1680 (harmonic/Gann support) with a tight stop below 1.1660, targeting a move back to 1.1800. 🧘 Risk Management: Always use a stop-loss. Risk no more than 1-2% of your account on any single trade. 🌍 Market Context & Final Thoughts Globally, all eyes are on ECB vs. Fed policy divergence 🏦. Any hawkish remarks from the Fed or dovish tones from the ECB could fuel further USD strength, pressuring EURUSD lower. This technical setup aligns with a bearish fundamental backdrop. Conclusion: The 1.1680-1.1700 zone is absolutely critical. 🚨 A break below likely triggers the next leg down. A strong bounce from here could lead to a larger corrective rally. Trade the breakout/breakdown with the confluence of patterns and indicators. ✅ Trade Safe! Remember to always manage your risk.
by sunya
EUR/USD at Make-or-Break Zone: Rejection Incoming1. COT Report (Commitment of Traders) USD Index: Non-commercials (speculators) remain net short on the dollar (13,645 long vs 18,666 short). However, last week saw a slight increase in longs (+487) and a decrease in shorts (-597). This indicates a modest improvement in sentiment toward the greenback, though not yet a full reversal. Euro: Non-commercials remain heavily long (255,660 long vs 136,068 short). Yet, last week showed a reduction in longs (-2,726) and an increase in shorts (+721), suggesting profit-taking and weaker bullish conviction. 👉 Overall, the COT reflects a potential rebalancing: euro net longs are being reduced, while dollar shorts are unwinding. This aligns with a possible relative strengthening of the USD. 2. Retail Sentiment 72% of retail traders are short EUR/USD, while only 28% are long. 👉 A classic contrarian signal: when the majority is short, the risk of upside squeezes remains. However, context matters—price is near key technical resistance, which leaves room for a potential fake-out to the upside before a reversal. 3. Seasonality (September) Historically, September has been slightly positive for EUR/USD (+0.0021 average over the past 20 years). 👉 Seasonality favors a mild sideways-to-bullish bias in the early weeks of the month, with heightened volatility mid-month. 4. Technical Analysis (Chart) Price is trading around a major resistance zone (1.1750–1.1800), which has already been rejected multiple times. Structure: consolidation persists within the 1.1650–1.1750 range. Key demand lies at 1.1550–1.1600, extending down toward 1.1400 if breakdown occurs. RSI is neutral—not overbought—leaving room for directional moves. 👉 Technical setup: failure to break 1.1750 opens the risk of a retracement toward 1.1600–1.1550, and potentially 1.1400, consistent with your chart projection. Conclusion COT: euro longs unwinding, dollar shorts decreasing → tilt in favor of USD. Retail sentiment: contrarian, heavily short → risk of short-term upside spikes. Seasonality: mild positive bias in September with mid-month volatility. Technical: strong resistance at 1.1750, risk of rejection toward 1.1600–1.1550. 📌 Trading Bias : Neutral-to-bearish. In the short term, EUR/USD could test/spike above 1.1750 to hunt stops, but the medium-term outlook (COT + technicals) remains skewed toward a bearish correction into 1.1550–1.1450. Only a solid weekly breakout above 1.1800 would invalidate the short scenario.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
2
Bitcoin Drops 3%—Here’s Why It’s Happening!Bitcoin jumped past $113k right after the NFP report, then retraced 2% . Why the sudden swing? Weak jobs data, recession fears, and market sentiment all played a role. In this video, I break down: The NFP impact on BTC September’s historical weakness Correlation with the S&P 500 Potential buying opportunities if the Fed cuts rates I analyze Bitcoin daily to make sure we don’t miss any triggers. Join the community , drop your thoughts in the comments, and share with friends if this helped!
by SkepticLab
UK retail sales beat estimate, US nonfarm payrolls sink, pound jThe British pound has pushed higher on Friday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3519, up 0.66% on the day. About half the pound's gains have come following today's weak US nonfarm payrolls report. It was a good-news-bad news retail sales report out of the UK today. July retail sales rose a respectable 0.6% m/m, up from a downwardly revised 0.3% in June and higher than the market estimate of 0.2%. The improvement was driven by warm weather and the women's European soccer championship. The bad news was the sharp downward corrections to the the previous months' data. Retail sales for June was revised lower to 0.3% from 0.9%. Annualized retail sales posted a with a gain of 1.1%, missing the market estimate of 1.3%. This was above the June reading of 0.9%, which was revised from 1.7%. All eyes were on today's US nonfarm payrolls, which disappointed with a marginal gain of 22 thousand, well below the upwardly revised gain of 79 thousand in July and the market estimate of 75 thousand. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.3% from 4.2%, the highest level since December 2021. Employers remain cautious about hiring in an uncertain economic environment and the Trump tariffs aren't helping to restore confidence. This key employment release has taken on double significance, coming shortly before the next Federal Reserve meeting on September 17. There could be calls for the Fed to consider a jumbo half-point cut as the labor market is cooling quickly, although the most likely scenario is a modest quarter-point cut. GBP/USD has pushed above several resistance lines and is testing 1.3499. Next, there is resistance at 1.3552 1.3415 and 1.3395 are providing support
by OANDA
XAU/USD – FED dovish, gold extends momentum; SELL only for scalp⚓️ Captain Vincent – Gold Plan XAU/USD 1. Market Waves 🌍 The probability of a FED rate cut in September has surged to 96.6% (from 90.4% earlier) after the JOLTS report showed weakening job prospects. Several FED officials, from Kashkari to Bostic, turned dovish. Only Musallim maintained a hawkish stance, with a scenario of just one cut. As a result, flows rushed back into gold as the #1 safe haven , fueling a strong rally last night. 📌 Key data today (04/09 – US time): ADP Nonfarm (7:15) Jobless Claims (7:30) ISM Services PMI (9:00) 👉 This trio of data could trigger significant volatility for GOLD. 2. Technical Outlook ⚙️ M30/H1 Chart: gold keeps forming bullish BOS , with the main trend still upward. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (Buy Zone 3,477 – 3,479): old Order Block, strong support if price retraces. Quick Boarding 🚤 (Sell Scalp 3,561 – 3,563): suitable only for short-term scalps. Storm Breaker 🌊 (Sell Zone 3,573 – 3,575): aligned with fibo 0.618–0.786 resistance, high chance of strong supply. Captain’s Shield 🛡️ (Support): 3,526 – 3,515 – 3,508 3. Captain Vincent’s Map – Trade Scenarios 🪙 🔺 Golden Harbor 🏝️ (BUY – Priority) Entry: 3,477 – 3,479 SL: 3,470 TP: 3,480 → 3,483 → 3,486 → 3,491 → 349x → 35xx 🚤 Quick Boarding (SELL Scalp – short-term only) Entry: 3,561 – 3,563 SL: 3,569 TP: 3,558 → 3,555 → 3,552 → 354x 🌊 Storm Breaker (SELL Zone – strong resistance) Entry: 3,573 – 3,575 SL: 3,581 TP: 3,570 → 3,565 → 3,560 → 3,555 → 35xx 4. Captain’s Note ⚓ “The gold sail is filled with dovish winds from the FED. Golden Harbor 🏝️ 3477 remains the safe anchor to ride the trend. SELL setups are just Quick Boarding 🚤 scalps at Storm Breaker 🌊 , not long voyages.”
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CaptainVincent
Swiss CPI declines, will SNB revert to negative rates?The Swiss franc has edged lower on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.8052, down 0.13% on the day. Swiss inflation declined in August for the first time since January. CPI slipped 0.1%, following the July reading of zero and the market estimate of zero. Yearly, CPI rose 0.2%, unchanged from July and in line with the market estimate. The soft inflation report could support the case for the Swiss National Bank to return to negative interest rates. The SNB had a negative rate policy in effect for eight consecutive years until 2022, when high inflation forced the bank to sharply tighten policy. The markets widely expect the SNB to hold rates at this month's meeting, but if inflation continues to sag, there will be pressure on the central bank to lower rates. SNB President Martin Schlegel has stressed in the past that the central bank could revert back to negative rates if necessary but would try to avoid doing so since it causes difficulties for businesses and consumers. The SNB is also keeping a close eye on the value of the Swiss franc. The Swiss currency has soared against the US dollar, gaining 11.3% since the start of the year. In June, USD/CHF fell below the psychologically significant 0.80 level for the first time 2011. The central bank does not want the franc to continue appreciating, since it means that Swiss exports are more expensive and thus less competitive. US tariffs have dealt a blow to the export-reliant Swiss economy. Switzerland has had to absorb US tariffs of 39% on most goods, which has put the country at a serious disadvantage against the neighboring European Union, which faces tariffs of only 15% on most goods. The USUSD/CHF is testing resistance at 0.8045. Next, there is resistance at 0.8054 and 0.8064. 0.8035 and 0.8026 are providing support
by OANDA
Gold, Yields, and the Fed: How Monetary Policy Drives Markets Few forces shape global markets more than U.S. monetary policy. The Federal Reserve’s dual mandate, maximum employment and 2% inflation is the anchor for its decisions. For traders, understanding how these objectives translate into interest rate changes is critical for positioning in gold futures and across the yield curve. The Fed’s Dual Mandate 1. Maximum Employment: Support jobs and minimize unemployment. 2. Stable Prices (2% inflation target): Prevent runaway inflation or deflation. The Fed balances these goals using interest rates: • Raising rates: Cools demand, strengthens the dollar, lifts yield, weighs on gold. • Cutting rates: Stimulates demand, weakens the dollar, lowers real yields, supports gold. The tension lies in the trade-off: controlling inflation often hurts employment, while boosting employment risks higher inflation. Gold and Monetary Policy Gold is highly sensitive to real interest rates (nominal yields minus inflation): • Hawkish Fed: Higher real yields, dollar strength, gold struggles. • Dovish Fed: Lower real yields, weaker dollar, gold rallies. However, given the recent surge in gold prices despite higher rates, traders must ask: • Will gold continue rising as odds of rate cuts increase, and when they are eventually delivered? • Is the traditional correlation between the dollar and gold futures prices breaking down? Gold’s rally has also been driven by geopolitical tensions and rising long term yields, reflecting rising debt burdens across the globe. Yield Curve and Monetary Policy The yield curve reflects expectations about growth, inflation, and Fed policy. • Short end (1M–5Y): Anchored by Fed policy rates. If markets expect hikes/cuts, the front end moves first. • Long end (10Y–30Y): Driven by expectations for long-term inflation, growth, and Treasury supply/demand dynamics. Typically, investors and market participants watch for the following patterns: • Inverted curve: Short yields > long yields, often a recession signal. See last year’s yield curve. • Steepening curve: Usually follows Fed cuts, as front-end yields drop faster than the back end. Two Classic Scenarios Scenario 1: Inflation Stays High, Jobs Weaken • Fed resists cutting, prioritizing price stability. • Gold: Consolidates or weakens (real yields elevated). • Yield curve: While the short end stays pinned, long end could rise on higher inflation risk and increasing debt worries, signaling stagflation risk. Scenario 2: Inflation Stabilizes, Jobs Weaken • Fed pivots dovish, prioritizing employment. • Gold: Breaks higher on falling real yields. • Yield curve: Steepens as short yields fall faster than long yields. The Policy Backdrop Powell’s last symposium before his term ends, at the Jackson Hole appearance, Fed Chair Powell delivered a dovish pivot, highlighting rising risks to the labor market while downplaying the inflationary effects of tariffs. The reasoning behind this shift deserves its own deep dive, but for now, our focus remains squarely on how monetary policy, specifically interest rate decisions, impacts inflation, growth, supply, and demand in the U.S. economy. What’s on the Docket Until the Next Fed Meeting (September 17, 2025) Markets will be glued to data in the coming weeks: • Aug PCE / Core PCE (Aug 28–29) → Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. • Aug NFP (Sep 5) → Labor market health; weak print strengthens the case for cuts. • Aug PPI (Sep 10) → Upstream price pressures; hot numbers signal inflation risks. • Aug CPI & Core CPI (Sep 11) → Key headline data; softer print supports dovish case. • Fed Decision (Sep 17) → Will Powell stress inflation vigilance, or shift toward labor concerns? How the Charts Tie It Together • Gold Futures: o Ascending Triangle breakout above resistance towards $3,600, if Fed pivots dovish and deliver a rate cut or a bigger rate cut. o Ascending Triangle breakdown toward $3,350 if inflation remains sticky and the Fed holds. In this scenario, gold remains in balance overall. • Yield Curve: o Short end reacts directly to Fed rate expectations. o Long end reflects investor conviction on inflation, growth and increasing debt concerns. Takeaway for Traders The Fed’s dual mandate creates a constant push and pull between inflation control and employment support. Gold and the yield curve are two of the clearest real-time mirrors of that balancing act: • Watch short-term yields and gold to gauge how markets are pricing the Fed’s next move. • Watch the long end of the curve to see whether investors believe inflation is truly anchored. By linking economic data → Fed mandate → asset price response, traders gain a roadmap that works not just for this Fed meeting, but for every one that follows. In our next educational blog we will briefly explore other policy tools used by the Fed i.e., QE and QT. Quantitative Easing and Quantitative Tightening. FRED:FEDFUNDS ECONOMICS:USINTR CME_MINI:ES1! CME_MINI:MNQ1! CME_MINI:NQ1! COMEX:GC1! MCX:GOLD1! CBOT:ZB1! CBOT:ZN1!
COMEX:GC1!
by EdgeClear
20
US30 Pullback Toward 44,600 Within Ongoing UptrendHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring US30 for a buying opportunity around the 44,600 zone. Dow Jones (US30) is trading in an uptrend, with price currently correcting toward this key support/resistance level. Structure: The broader bias remains bullish, but price is pulling back after recent highs. Key level in focus: 44,600 — a significant area where buyers may look to step in and continue the upward trend. Fundamentals: Market sentiment remains broadly supportive for equities, with risk appetite steady as investors weigh U.S. economic data and central bank policy outlook. Trade safe, Joe.
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by JoeChampion
6
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Sept 3, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Sept 3, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🏦 Traders bracing for a labor + Fed double header — ADP jobs and the Beige Book will steer rate-cut odds into Friday’s NFP. 📉 Stocks drifted Tuesday post-JOLTS miss — markets looking for confirmation of labor cooling. 💻 Tech earnings rotation continues — volatility in AMEX:XLK spilling into broader tape. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 7:00 AM — MBA Mortgage Applications ⏰ 🚩 8:15 AM — ADP Employment Report (Aug) ⏰ 10:00 AM — ISM Services PMI (Aug) ⏰ 🚩 2:00 PM — Fed Beige Book ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #ADP #BeigeBook #Fed #labor #ISM #bonds #economy
AMEX:SPY
by TrendTao
GBPAUD Ready for a Breakdown?1. Retail Sentiment 62% of retail traders are long on GBPAUD, while 38% are short. Historically, retail positioning tends to be contrarian: an excess of longs often signals further downside pressure. Volume: 824 long lots vs 506 short lots → net long exposure. ➡ Bias: Contrarian short 2. COT Report GBP (August 26, 2025) Non-commercials (speculators): 76k longs vs 107k shorts → net short of -31k. Commercials: net long, but mainly for hedging purposes. Trend: large speculators are slightly increasing shorts (+866) while reducing longs (-5,302). ➡ Bias: GBP weakness AUD (August 26, 2025) Non-commercials: 28k longs vs 129k shorts → heavily net short AUD. Commercials have significantly increased long positions (+10,892). Speculators remain bearish, but defensive positioning is building up. ➡ Bias: AUD still weak, but showing early signs of stabilization 3. Seasonality (September) GBP: historically negative in September (weakness). AUD: historically shows a moderately positive trend in September, especially in the last 10 years. ➡ Bias: GBPAUD historically bearish in September 4. Technical Analysis Structure: the market rejected the 2.09 supply zone and is now consolidating within the 2.03–2.09 range. Price action suggests a possible rebound towards 2.07–2.08 before a potential breakdown towards 2.03. ➡ Technical bias: Short from supply zones at 2.07–2.08 targeting 2.04–2.03 5. Summary & Trading Scenarios Macro/COT: GBP remains weak, AUD under pressure but with accumulation signs → mixed outlook, but seasonality favors AUD. Sentiment: retail traders excessively long → confirms short bias. Technical: bearish structure with key supports at 2.0430 and 2.0318. 👉 Conclusion: At the moment, GBPAUD shows a bearish bias supported by retail sentiment, seasonality, and price action. The most likely scenario is a test of the 2.04–2.03 zone in the coming weeks.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
4
USDCAD Pullback Toward 1.37900 as Dollar Weakness PersistsHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring USDCAD for a selling opportunity around the 1.37900 zone. USDCAD is trading in a downtrend, with price currently correcting toward this key support/resistance level. Structure: The broader bias remains bearish, but price is retracing upward after recent lows. Key level in focus: 1.37900 — a critical area where sellers may look to re-enter and push the pair lower. Fundamentals: The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) maintains a bearish tone as Jerome Powell’s recent dovish stance weighs on the greenback. With DXY approaching 97.800 resistance, further downside pressure on USD could reinforce USDCAD weakness. Trade safe, Joe.
Short
by JoeChampion
12
AUD/USD – Last Push Before September Weakness?1. Retail Sentiment 77% of retail traders are currently short on AUD/USD, with an average entry around 0.6459. Historically, when retail positioning is heavily skewed to one side, the market often moves in the opposite direction. This suggests short-term upside potential (contrarian perspective). 2. COT Report (AUD & USD Index) AUD (CME): Non-Commercials remain heavily short (129k vs 28k long), keeping speculative positioning bearish on AUD. However, Commercials significantly increased their long exposure (+10,892), indicating institutional accumulation. USD Index (ICE): Non-Commercials hold 19k shorts vs 13k longs, showing a bearish tilt on USD, with additional shorts added (+1,916). Commercials remain net long (12k vs 6k short), defending dollar strength. ➡️ COT Takeaway: Speculators remain bearish on AUD and moderately bearish on USD. This divergence suggests potential sideways movement or consolidation in the short term. 3. Seasonality (September) Historically, September has been a weak month for AUD/USD, with negative performance across the past 5–15 years. Seasonal curves confirm a bearish bias, especially in the first half of the month. 4. Technical Analysis Supply Zone: Approaching strong weekly/monthly supply at 0.6600–0.6650. RSI: Rising toward overbought, pointing to possible exhaustion of bullish momentum. Structure: Price may complete a test of 0.6600–0.6650 before retracing back to demand zones at 0.6450 and 0.6400. Trend Dynamics: The medium-term trend remains bearish, with corrective rallies providing opportunities to short. Operational Outlook Short-term Bias (1–2 weeks): Potential final push toward 0.6600–0.6650, driven by contrarian sentiment and COT divergence. Medium-term Bias (September): Expected weakness with downside targets at 0.6450 → 0.6400, aligned with seasonality and speculative positioning. Strategy: Look for short reversal setups around 0.6600–0.6650 with H4/H1 confirmation (structure break or engulfing pattern). Stop above 0.6700, targets at 0.6450 / 0.6400.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
Australian dollar extends gains, hits three-week highThe Australian dollar is coming off a positive week and has extended its gains on Monday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6556, up 0.27% on the day. Earlier, the Aussie rose as high as 0.6560, its highest level since August 11. With US markets closed for Labor Day, we're unlikely to see stronger movement from AUD/USD during the day. China's manufacturing sector continues to contract and that could spell trouble for the Australian economy and the Aussie. China's manufacturing PMI for August inched higher to 49.4 from 49.3 in August. This missed the market forecast of 49.5 and marked the fight straight month of contraction in manufacturing. The manufacturing industry has been dampened by weak global demand and US tariffs on Chinese products. The drop in manufacturing activity means there has been less demand for iron ore from Australia, which is used in the production of steel. This has resulted in a decline in iron ore prices, which has weighed on the Australian dollar and dampened Australia's export-reliant economy. The US core personal consumption expenditures price index (core PCE), the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator, ticked higher to 2.9% in July, up from 2.8% in June. This matched the market estimate and was a five-month high. Monthly, core PCE rose 0.3%, unchanged from June and in line with the market estimate. The slight rise in US core inflation has raised expectations of a rate cut at the Fed's September 17 meeting to 89%, up from 86% just before the core PCE release on Friday. AUD/USD is testing resistance at 06552. Above, there is resistance at 0.6563 and 0.6578 0.6537 and 0.6526 are providing support
by OANDA
US job numbers this week. Keeping an eye on USD and US indicesWe are keeping a close eye on the US job numbers this week, as those fall into the Fed's spotlight. The expectations are low, so it would be interesting to see if the numbers can get even lower. Let's take a look. MARKETSCOM:DOLLARINDEX FX_IDC:EURUSD Let us know what you think in the comments below. Thank you. 75.2% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
MARKETSCOM:DOLLARINDEX
by Marketscom
DXY Forecast: H&S Continuation Pattern?The DXY rebound between July and August has shaped a head and shoulders pattern. The chart is now testing the downside breakout, with the daily RSI turning bearish and slipping below the 50 level. A clean break below the 97.50 support could extend losses toward 97.20 and 96.50, with the full head and shoulders pattern pointing to a potential move down toward the 95.00–94.50 zone. On the upside, a rebound above the 98.00 level would suggest some bullish recovery. However, a sustained move above 100.20 is needed to confidently shift the outlook toward a longer-term bullish reversal. Key Events This Week • ISM PMIs: to clarify US economic activity (Tuesday–Thursday) • US NFPs and their impact on rate cut expectations and DXY price action (Friday) • Effects of US trade and legal developments, EU political shifts, and Middle East escalations on risk sentiment - Razan Hilal, CMT
TVC:DXY
by FOREXcom
Gold Pops 5% as Fed Fears Drive Demand. New Record High Soon?Gold bugs are doing well this summer. The yellow metal OANDA:XAUUSD just logged its best monthly performance since April, climbing nearly 5% in August and closing at $3,447 per ounce on Friday – its highest level since mid-June. As stock bros take a break for Labor Day on Monday, gold bugs are pushing higher, challenging the current all-time high with another leg up to $3,490. But before the ATH hits, let's see how we got here. Between Fed drama, Trump-vs-Lisa Cook headlines, and falling yields , gold suddenly looks like the life raft everyone wants. 🕺🏻 Let’s break it down. 🤸‍♀️ 🏦 Fed Drama Meets Gold Fever When politics and monetary policy collide, volatility follows – and gold traders have been feasting on it. President Donald Trump’s latest target? Lisa Cook, a Biden-appointed Fed governor and one of the crew of seven responsible for setting interest rates. Trump wants her out, she wants to stay , and a federal court hearing wrapped Friday without a ruling on whether he can fire her while her lawsuit plays out. The bigger picture: this fight is about Fed independence – or what’s left of it. A perceived White House grip on rate decisions injects more uncertainty into markets, and when things get murky, gold shines. Traders don’t just buy bullion for safe-haven vibes; they’re hedging against the possibility that the Fed is less independent than we thought. The Trump-vs-Lisa Cook fight is a precedent, a sight never seen in the history of America. 📉 Rate Cut Bets Are Back on the Table Friday’s inflation data – the Personal Consumption Expenditures ECONOMICS:USPCEPI price index – came in exactly as expected, up 0.2% month-over-month and 2.6% year-over-year. Core PCE clocked in at 2.9%, in line with consensus. That’s the Fed's favored inflation metric so it holds big weight when central bankers get together to decide whether to keep, hike, or cut borrowing costs. Last month's readout showed predictable numbers that set off a chain reaction: markets are now pricing in a 90% chance of a September rate cut, as per the CME FedWatch tool. Rates are instrumental in adjusting the prices of gold because it doesn’t pay any yield. In a high-rate world, holding bullion means losing out on returns you’d get from Treasuries or savings accounts – a classic opportunity cost, in economic lingo. But when rates drop, that cost shrinks, and the shiny metal suddenly looks far more attractive as a store of value rather than a drag on returns. In short, lower yields + lower dollar = stronger demand for gold. And with the dollar down 2.2% in August, the tailwind is getting stronger, helping explain gold’s upswing. 📈 A Double Top… or a Line Crossed? Here’s where things get spicy for chart-watchers. Friday’s rally pushed gold right up against its mid-June peak above $3,440 per ounce, forming what looked suspiciously like a double top pattern – a bearish setup where prices stall twice at the same resistance level before heading lower. Only that, it didn't take long for momentum to carry gold past the double-top pattern and into record-close territory. Fast fact: gold’s record high is just about $10 to $30 away from current market prices. The precious metal hit $3,500 in late April, just before shaving off some $200 in a bruising two-day wipeout . 🛍️ Why Gold Is Back in Fashion Gold’s rally is about technicals as much as it is about vibes and fundamentals. And right now, the macro backdrop is doing the heavy lifting: Fed policy uncertainty is making traders nervous Political drama over Fed independence is adding fuel Falling yields are pulling investors into non-yielding assets Dollar weakness is inviting overseas buyers to pile in 👀 What Traders Should Watch Next This week could be pivotal for gold’s next leg: The upcoming nonfarm payrolls ECONOMICS:USNFP report on Friday will set the tone. Prediction gurus have pinned their expectations at 78,000 hires in August, about the same as the previous month’s 73,000. What about revisions? That’s a thing now, after the last reading trimmed 258,000 jobs off May and June. A weak jobs print would reinforce fears of a slowing economy, cementing expectations of a September rate cut – a potentially bullish setup for gold. On the flip side, a blowout number could cool the rally. Also on deck: more chatter from the Federal Reserve ahead of its September 16-17 meeting, especially around the firing of Lisa Cook. For now, traders are watching the $3,450–$3,460 resistance zone like hawks. That’s the line between a short-term top and a fresh breakout. 👉 The Takeaway Gold just had its best monthly run in four months, but it’s walking a tightrope at a critical resistance level. With prices less than 1% away from the all-time high, the next move could define the rest of the quarter for bullion (and maybe even the fourth quarter). If you’re trading this, two camps are emerging: Breakout believers think falling yields and the mosaic of data are about to send prices ripping above $3,500. Doom-and-gloom permabears see more froth than substance, saying prices can only go one way from here. Off to you: Which side are you on? Share your thoughts and observations in the comments!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TradingView
12
FTSE100 surges to records despite CPI surprise but can it last?The FTSE 100 has surged to a new all-time high, defying expectations after UK inflation surprised to the upside at 3.8%. This resilience can be attributed to renewed global interest in undervalued UK stocks, particularly defensives, as investors anticipate a potential end to the BOE’s easing cycle in 2025 due to persistent price pressures. The market remains sensitive to global cues, with attention turning to the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium. A more hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve could reinforce risk aversion and further boost the FTSE’s appeal as a relative safe haven, while a dovish Fed may see flows return to US equities, posing a conditional risk to the FTSE’s rally. From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100’s recent breakout places immediate focus on the 9,367–9,400 resistance zone, which marks the upper boundary of the latest upward channel. A sustained daily close above 9,400 could open the door to further upside, targeting the psychological 9,500 level next. On the downside, initial support is seen at 9,200, with a break below there potentially exposing the 9,050–9,000 area for a deeper pullback. Traders should watch for confirmation of direction at these levels, as volatility may increase around key macro events. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:UK100Short
by ThinkMarkets
1
USDJPY Deat Cat Bounce at play after Jackson Hole remarks?In this video, we analyse the sharp move in the USDJPY following crucial speeches from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Powell signalled the possibility of a September rate hike, highlighting ongoing weakness in the US labour market. Meanwhile, Ueda emphasised Japan's strong job market, supported by immigrant labour, which is driving wage growth and sustaining inflationary pressures. Ueda’s Hawkish Stance: Ueda maintained a hawkish tone, noting that wage hikes in larger Japanese companies are now spreading to smaller firms, strengthening expectations for continued inflation. This commentary increased the likelihood of a BOJ rate hike, giving the yen additional support. Market Reaction: Prior to the Symposium, traders were positioned for a potential rate cut by year-end. However, after Ueda’s remarks, futures market pricing suggests the odds of an October rate cut are now evenly split at 50-50. Technicals: Open triangle completion may trigger further downside after the post-JHS drop. Current rally to the upside could be a relief rally, part of a potential Dead Cat Bounce (DCB). This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Short
by ThinkMarkets
1