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GBP/NZD: Smart Money Flows Back Into Sterling🔹 COT (Commitment of Traders) British Pound (GBP) Non-commercial longs: 84,500 (+3,704) Non-commercial shorts: 86,464 (−912) → Institutions increased long exposure and trimmed shorts → signaling renewed bullish interest in the pound. New Zealand Dollar (NZD) Non-commercial longs: 12,295 (+3,044) Non-commercial shorts: 33,415 (+6,160) → Both positions increased, but the stronger rise in shorts suggests a bearish institutional sentiment on the NZD. Institutional flow supports GBP strength and NZD weakness → overall bullish bias on GBP/NZD. 🔹 FX Sentiment (Retail Positioning) 69% short / 31% long 📌 Retail traders are heavily short — a contrarian bullish signal aligned with the COT positioning. 🔹 Seasonality British Pound (GBP): October is historically neutral to slightly positive (+0.2% to +0.4% on average over 5–10 years). New Zealand Dollar (NZD): October shows mild positivity in the short term (2–5 years) but turns neutral/negative over 10–20 years. 📌 Seasonal takeaway: slight divergence, but GBP retains the upper hand in the medium term. 🔹 Price Action Price remains within a rising channel, testing the dynamic support around 2.3050–2.3100. After a pullback from the 2.3450–2.3550 supply zone, price is now reacting from the channel’s lower boundary. RSI is neutral but showing potential for a technical rebound. 🎯 Main Scenario: A pullback around 2.3100–2.3150 could provide a new long opportunity toward 2.3500–2.3600, with extension to 2.3800. ⚙️ Invalidation: daily close below 2.2950. 🔹 Trading Outlook Primary Bias: Bullish Confluences: COT → Institutions long GBP, short NZD Sentiment → Retail excessively short = contrarian long Seasonality → Favors GBP Price Action → Rising channel structure still valid 🎯 Technical Target: 2.3500 → 2.3800 🚫 Invalidation: below 2.2950
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
7
EUR/USD: Technical Rebound in Progress — Watch 1.1550🔹 COT (Commitment of Traders) Euro (EUR) Non-commercial longs: 252,472 (−789) Non-commercial shorts: 138,127 (+2,625) → Institutions are reducing long exposure and adding shorts, suggesting a loss of bullish momentum on the euro. US Dollar Index (DXY) Non-commercial longs: 14,032 (+1,541) Non-commercial shorts: 24,376 (−1,009) → Institutions are adding longs and cutting shorts, reflecting growing confidence in the USD. Institutional flows confirm a bearish bias on EUR/USD, with strengthening USD sentiment and mild euro weakness. 🔹 FX Sentiment (Retail Positioning) 50% short / 50% long Market sentiment is perfectly balanced — a neutral retail positioning indicating no clear contrarian signal, consistent with a possible short-term consolidation phase. 🔹 Seasonality Historically, October tends to be neutral to slightly negative for EUR/USD (−0.2% to −0.5% on 10–20-year averages). Shorter cycles (2–5 years) show minor positive returns, suggesting that any rebound may be temporary within a broader bearish structure. Slight downside bias, with potential for short-term corrective upside. 🔹 Price Action EUR/USD recently reacted from the 1.1530–1.1550 demand zone, showing signs of short-term accumulation. The descending channel has been broken to the upside, and price is now retesting the previous mid-range support (1.1600–1.1620). RSI remains neutral but shows a gradual bullish divergence building at the lows. 🎯 Main Scenario: If 1.1600–1.1620 holds as support, a short-term bullish leg toward 1.1710–1.1780 (former supply area) is possible. Invalidation: daily close below 1.1550, which would reopen downside toward 1.1500.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
2
NAS100 - Stock Market, Waiting for a Decisive Week?!The index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour time frame and is in its long-term ascending channel. As long as the Nasdaq is in its range, you can be a seller at the top of the range and a buyer at the bottom. If this range is broken, you can look for new trends in the Nasdaq. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for September 2025 will be released on Friday, October 24 at 8:30 a.m. New York time (4:00 p.m. Tehran time). This release comes as most other economic data have been delayed due to the ongoing federal government shutdown, which has suspended normal operations. The CPI report is particularly important for the U.S. Social Security Administration, as it serves as the basis for calculating annual adjustments to retirement benefits and other statutory payments. In a statement released on Friday, the agency confirmed that it would temporarily recall a limited number of furloughed employees to ensure the timely publication of the CPI report. Originally scheduled for October 15, the release has now been rescheduled for October 24. This CPI release will be among the few remaining economic datasets published by federal agencies during the shutdown. Since October 1, most data-producing institutions have ceased operations amid political deadlock between Democrats and Republicans that has halted large portions of federal services. With the federal shutdown continuing, U.S. markets are increasingly relying on private-sector data to gauge the state of the economy. In the upcoming week, indicators such as housing sales and private manufacturing surveys will be released, serving as alternative references for traders and analysts. Without access to official government data, investors, businesses, and consumers face a heightened level of uncertainty, making it difficult to plan for spending, hiring, and saving decisions. The CPI report could play a crucial role in shaping the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions, as the FOMC will have access to the data ahead of its October 28–29 policy meeting. Fed officials are currently debating whether to cut interest rates further, and if so, how quickly. In September, the Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate to support a weakening labor market by reducing borrowing costs across short-term loans. Another rate cut is widely expected in October, though elevated inflation could slow or prevent further easing. The Chief Financial Officer of Bank of America (BOFA) stated that the bank expects two additional rate cuts by the Fed before the end of this year. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently warned about downside risks to the labor market, sparking speculation that he might have had early access to the yet-unreleased September employment report. However, a closer examination of his remarks shows no confirmation or denial of such access. The key takeaway from Powell’s speech was his firm reaffirmation of market expectations for a rate cut later this month, delivered without any sign of hesitation or opposition — a clear and confident signal to investors. In another commentary, Bank of America highlighted that the current boom in AI data centers is fundamentally different from the dot-com bubble of the early 2000s. The bank attributed today’s expansion to strong semiconductor utilization, healthy cash flows, lower valuations, and a more favorable interest rate environment. Nonetheless, it acknowledged ongoing concerns about excessive spending and stretched valuations in certain AI sectors. Finally, the October Bank of America investor survey revealed that recession fears have fallen to their lowest level since February 2022, while optimism about economic growth has seen its strongest jump since 2020: • 33% expect a “no-landing” scenario (up from 18%) • 54% foresee a “soft landing” (down from 67%) • 8% anticipate a “hard landing” (down from 10%).
CAPITALCOM:US100
by Ali_PSND
EUR/JPY: Smart Money Turns to the Yen🔹 COT (Commitment of Traders) Euro (EUR) Non-commercial longs: 252,472 (−789) Non-commercial shorts: 138,127 (+2,625) → Institutional traders slightly reduced longs and added shorts → signaling mild weakening momentum on the euro. Japanese Yen (JPY) Non-commercial longs: 176,400 (+14,727) Non-commercial shorts: 96,900 (−3,362) → Sharp increase in longs and notable short covering → bullish flow into the yen, reflecting potential medium-term strength. Combined Interpretation: COT confirms a bearish bias on EUR/JPY, with euro weakness and increasing yen demand. 🔹 FX Sentiment (Retail Positioning) 83% short / 17% long Retail traders are heavily short — a contrarian signal that may trigger a short-term bounce, though the broader macro backdrop still favors the yen. 🔹 Seasonality Historically, October tends to be neutral to slightly positive for EUR/JPY over 5–10 years (+0.5% on average), while 15–20-year data shows a mild negative tendency (around −0.6%). Seasonal takeaway: neutral bias, with correction risk if yen strength persists. 🔹 Price Action Price is consolidating below 176.00 after a sharp rejection from the 177.50–178.00 supply zone. The technical structure shows lower highs, with the ascending trendline now at risk of breaking. RSI remains neutral but losing momentum. 🎯 Main Scenario: A break below 175.30–175.00 would open space toward 173.50, then 171.80. Invalidation: daily close above 176.50.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
7
EUR/AUD Bulls Fighting Back — Retail 76% Short!🔹 COT (Commitment of Traders) Euro (EUR): Non-commercial longs: 252,472 (−789) Non-commercial shorts: 138,127 (+2,625) → Institutional traders have trimmed long positions and increased shorts, signaling a softening bullish bias on the euro. Australian Dollar (AUD): Non-commercial longs: 41,994 (+1,718) Non-commercial shorts: 101,584 (+10,148) → Sharp increase in short exposure versus longs, reflecting renewed bearish pressure on AUD. 📊 Combined Interpretation: While the euro shows mild weakness, the Australian dollar remains under stronger institutional selling pressure. The result is a net bullish bias on EUR/AUD, though upside momentum may moderate as euro positioning cools. 🔹 FX Sentiment (Retail Positioning) 76% short / 24% long 📌 Retail traders are heavily short, providing a contrarian bullish signal for EUR/AUD. This skew supports the institutional view, hinting that short covering could drive the next bullish leg. 🔹 Seasonality EUR: October tends to be mildly negative on a 10–20 year horizon (−0.20% to −0.60%), but neutralizing into November. AUD: October is historically flat to slightly positive, though broader Q4 data favors euro recovery over commodity currencies. 📌 Seasonal Bias: Neutral-to-bullish EUR/AUD outlook — seasonality doesn’t contradict the structural bullish setup but suggests limited upside speed. 🔹 Price Action EUR/AUD remains within a broad consolidation range, oscillating between 1.7650–1.7950. The pair has recently bounced strongly from the 1.7600–1.7650 demand zone, aligning with a clean RSI rebound from oversold conditions. Currently trading near 1.7900, approaching the supply area 1.7950–1.8000, which may act as short-term resistance before any continuation move. 🎯 Scenario 1 (Preferred): Continuation higher toward 1.8000, followed by a correction back toward 1.7700 before resuming the broader bullish trend. ❌ Invalidation: Daily close below 1.7650 would invalidate the bullish bias and re-open 1.7500.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
7
NZD/CHF Setup – 94% of Retail Long While Institutions Sell Hard🔹 COT (Commitment of Traders) New Zealand Dollar (NZD): Non-commercial longs: 12,295 (+3,044) Non-commercial shorts: 33,415 (+6,160) → Institutions increased exposure on both sides, but short positions rose more aggressively, maintaining a net short stance and signaling structural weakness in the NZD. Swiss Franc (CHF): Non-commercial longs: 8,227 (+1,992) Non-commercial shorts: 31,245 (−1,030) → A solid reduction in shorts and rise in longs, indicating a renewed bullish interest in the Swiss franc. 📊 Combined Interpretation: Institutional flow clearly favors CHF strength and NZD weakness, confirming a bearish bias on NZD/CHF. 🔹 FX Sentiment (Retail Positioning) 94% long / 6% short 📌 Retail traders are heavily long, a strong contrarian bearish signal. This imbalance highlights the risk of further downside, perfectly aligned with the institutional view. 🔹 Seasonality NZD: October shows mildly positive performance over 5–10 years, but weakness across 15–20 years → a short-term neutral-to-bullish but uncertain context. CHF: October is historically positive across all time horizons (5–20 years), with average gains between +0.5% and +1.2%, confirming a seasonal bullish bias for CHF. 📌 Seasonal Conclusion: Seasonality supports a bearish outlook for NZD/CHF, consistent with both the COT and retail sentiment data. 🔹 Price Action The pair continues to trade within a well-defined descending channel. Clear bearish breakout from the 0.4660–0.4700 supply zone, followed by a strong daily close lower. Currently retracing toward 0.4620–0.4640, an area where fresh selling pressure may emerge. RSI remains neutral with no bullish divergence, confirming sustained downside momentum. Key supports: 0.4550 (TP1), 0.4500 (TP2). Resistance: 0.4660 (invalidation above 0.4680). 🎯 Base Scenario: A short-term correction toward 0.4630–0.4640 followed by renewed bearish continuation toward 0.4500. ❌ Invalidation: Daily close above 0.4680.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
7
EUR/USD Breakdown Just Starting? Institutions Loading USD Longs🔹 COT (Commitment of Traders) Euro (EUR): Non-commercial longs: 252,472 (−789) Non-commercial shorts: 138,127 (+2,625) → Hedge funds slightly trimmed their long exposure while adding to shorts, signaling a loss of bullish momentum on the euro. US Dollar Index (DXY): Non-commercial longs: 14,032 (+1,541) Non-commercial shorts: 24,376 (−1,009) → Positioning shows a clear strengthening of the dollar, as speculators close shorts and increase longs. 📊 Interpretation: Institutional flow remains decisively in favor of the USD, reflecting renewed dollar strength and moderate euro weakness — keeping a bearish bias on EUR/USD in the short term. 🔹 FX Sentiment 50% long / 50% short 📌 The market is perfectly balanced, showing no contrarian extremes at the moment. However, this neutral sentiment after weeks of long dominance indicates a shift in retail perception, likely preceding a consolidation phase before another bearish leg. 🔹 Seasonality Based on Market Bulls historical data for EUR/USD: October has historically been negative, with average declines between −0.20% and −0.60% across 10–20 year datasets. Seasonality improves from November onward, but October remains a period of weakness for the euro. 📌 Conclusion: The seasonal context is bearish, aligning with institutional positioning and current price structure. 🔹 Price Action EUR/USD has broken the ascending trendline from August and is now consolidating below the 1.1750–1.1800 supply zone, strongly rejected earlier this month. The pair trades inside a descending channel, with key support at 1.1550–1.1500 and resistance near 1.1720–1.1750. The RSI is neutral but showing bearish divergence, hinting at a possible short-term pullback before the next leg lower. 🎯 Base scenario: a corrective bounce toward 1.1700–1.1750, followed by renewed downside pressure targeting 1.1450, with potential extension to 1.1380. ❌ Invalidation: Daily close above 1.1780.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
4
USDCHF 10-year support points to major breakdown to 0.70! USDCHF BREAKDOWN ALERT: Decade-long support shattered – here's why this could be the start of a major move to 0.70 and below! The Dollar-Swiss Franc pair is setting up for a potentially significant breakdown after breaking decade-long support levels since May. Both fundamental and technical factors are aligning for Swiss franc strength, creating what could be a rare high-probability trading opportunity. Key Drivers: Fed Dovish Pivot: Powell's Tuesday signal acknowledged downside risks to job markets, with 97% probability of October rate cuts and two more by December fully priced in Swiss Franc Strength: CHF has strengthened nearly 9% over the past 12 months, now testing the 0.78 level, while Trump's tariff escalation forces Switzerland to slash GDP forecasts Technical Breakdown: Multiple analytical methods (range breakouts, Fibonacci projections, and triangle pattern analysis) all point to targets around 0.7417-0.6840, representing potential moves to levels not seen since 2011 SNB Constraints: The Swiss National Bank cannot intervene in forex markets while trade talks are ongoing, meaning the Franc is likely to stay strong by default, with stable inflation data Don't miss this detailed technical and fundamental breakdown! Like and subscribe for more high-probability forex setups, and drop a comment below with your USD/CHF targets - are you seeing the same bearish signals? This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Short
by ThinkMarkets
1
Will DXY Sustain The Pressure Amid Current Uncertainties?Fundamental approach: - The US dollar retreated this week, pressured by expectations of continued Fed easing and signs of emerging economic weakness. - The Fed's latest Beige Book revealed that economic activity remained flat, with increasing layoffs across districts, and middle- to lower-income households reducing their spending, reinforcing dovish expectations. Chair Powell's scheduled remarks and the ongoing government shutdown, which began on 1 Oct, have delayed critical data. The Sep NFP was not released, and the Sep CPI is rescheduled for Fri, 24 Oct, adding to the uncertainty surrounding the dollar's outlook. - Meanwhile, the euro gained ground as European currencies strengthened against the greenback, with the dollar down around 10% YTD.​ - The dollar may face continued downside pressure as markets await the Fed's October 28-29 meeting, where a 0.25% rate cut is widely anticipated. However, delayed economic data releases could inject volatility into near-term trading.​ Technical approach: - DXY is trading within the ascending channel and retesting the support at 98.60. The index is slightly above both EMAs, indicating the upward momentum persists. - If DXY remains above the key support at 98.60, confluence with the ascending channel's lower bound, the index may rise to retest the psychological resistance at 100.00. - On the contrary, breaking below the support and both EMAs may prompt the DXY to retest the following support at 97.15. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
TVC:DXY
by DatTong
1
XAUAUD has more upside potentialGold prices extended gains amid escalating tariff tensions between the US and China, after China sanctioned shipping and the US President affirmed the commitment to maintaining high tariffs on Chinese goods. Meanwhile, the US government shutdown may introduce additional uncertainty regarding the timeliness of monetary policy in addressing the recently weakening labor market. The postponement of the Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) report raises further concern, as the Fed requires more data to determine its primary focus between the labor market and inflation—its dual mandate—which are currently diverging. Elevated inflation, driven by recent trade policies, requires the Fed to evaluate whether the price increases are transitory or if they will become prolonged and spread to sectors beyond tariff-sensitive goods. Markets are currently pricing in two additional rate cuts this year but remain uncertain about the outlook for next year, with some Fed officials signaling a cautious stance. Should the labor market continue to deteriorate while inflation remains elevated, the US economy could face stagnation, creating a favorable environment for gold. In Australia, recent labor data has increased economic uncertainty. The unemployment rate for Sep rose to a four-year high of 4.5% from 4.3% in the previous month, driven by a decrease in job openings and an increase in job seekers concerned about future income prospects. The weakening labor market has lifted market expectations for an RBA rate cut in Nov to over 70% from a previous reading of 40%, weighing on the Australian dollar. From a technical perspective, XAUAUD is trading within an upward range with expanding EMAs (21,78), indicating strong bullish momentum, though it may face pressure from profit-taking. A breakout above the Fibonacci Extension 361.8% at 6588 could see the price target the Fibonacci Extension 423.6% at 6866. Conversely, a failure to breach the 6588 level could result in a decline to test the support at 6140. By Van Ha Trinh, Financial Market Strategist at Exness
OANDA:XAUAUD
by WiseLeoTrading
Bitcoin Playbook: 115k Reclaim or 110.8k Breakdown__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ Bitcoin is consolidating after a leverage flush, basing near 110.8–111.3k while rallies stall below 114.8–115k. Momentum: 📉 Mild bearish intraday tone within a broader range; sellers capping under 115k as 111k still absorbs. Key levels: • Resistances (1D/12H): 113.8–115k, 118k, 123–126k • Supports (1D/12H): 110.8–111.3k, 108–109k, 100k Volumes: MODERATE across TFs; look for spikes to validate any break. Multi-timeframe signals: 1D/12H = neutral→down; only 6H shows a tactical buy; intradays (4H/2H/1H) lean lower within the range. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: neutral buy — a light tailwind that aligns with range context but stops short of a strong buy. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic stance: post-reset range; stay tactical and level-driven, with a cautious bias until 115k is reclaimed. Global bias: Neutral-to-cautious below 115k; invalidate on clean acceptance/daily close above 114.8–115k. Opportunities: • Confirmed long: Reclaim/hold 114.8–115k → target 118k, then 123–126k on volume confirmation. • Defensive long: Hold 110.8–111.3k with bullish close → target 113.5–115k. • Tactical short: Fade 114.8–115k or short breakdown <110.8k → target 109k/108k. Risk zones / invalidations: • Acceptance below 110.8k → invalidates defensive longs, opens 109k then 108k/100k. • Acceptance above 115k → invalidates range fades, opens 118k. Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news): • Fed “higher for longer” and data dependence → caps upside momentum. • U.S.–China tension chatter; firmer Treasuries and bid gold → caution. • Spot ETF 7d inflows positive → tailwind if 111k holds. Action plan: • Long (reclaim 115k): Entry ~115.0k / Stop ~113.5k / TP1 118k, TP2 123k, TP3 126k / R:R ~1:2–1:3. • Long (111k hold): Entry ~111.1k / Stop ~110.4k / TP1 113.5k, TP2 115k, TP3 118k / R:R ~1:2. • Short (break <110.8k): Entry ~110.6k / Stop ~111.6k / TP1 109k, TP2 108k, TP3 105k / R:R ~1:1.5–1:2. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ Higher timeframes stay range-bound and cautious while intradays lean bearish until 115k is reclaimed. 1D/12H: Base at 110.8–111.3k capped by 113.8–115k; a daily close above 115k would unlock 118k. Volumes are moderate → need confirmation. 6H: Active demand at 110.8–111.3k with a tactical buy read; room to rotate toward 113.5–115k if support holds. 4H/2H/1H/30m/15m: Lower‑timeframe sellers fade rallies; best risk points are fades under 113.5–115k or contrarian buys on sweeps/holds at 111k. Key divergences: Risk-on tailwind vs cautious higher‑TF filters; this tempers conviction and emphasizes strict invalidations. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro is mixed (hawkish Fed, geopolitics) while spot ETF flows add a modest tailwind; on-chain suggests a post‑flush reset regime. Macro events: Fed “higher for longer” with data dependence; renewed U.S.–China tension; firmer Treasuries and bid gold — a cautious mix for risk. Bitcoin analysis: BTC underperforms broader risk despite visible absorption at support; key zones align at 110.8–111.3k and 114.8–115k/118k. On-chain data: Large deleverage behind, funding normalized; sustained recovery needs spot demand and persistent ETF inflows. Expected impact: Neutral bias with a slight tailwind; technical confirmation above 115k is needed to unlock 118k+. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC is consolidating on higher‑timeframe support while 115k caps rallies. - Trend: neutral to mildly bearish until 115k is reclaimed. - Top setup: confirmed reclaim of 114.8–115k → 118k, then 123–126k if volume expands. - Macro driver: positive 7d spot ETF inflows cushioning downside amid a hawkish Fed. Stay patient and disciplined: let price confirm above 115k or below 110.8k before pressing risk.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Ox_kali
GAMMA SQUEEZE: Why Gold Prices will hit 5 000 + USDBottom line If 1% of Treasuries ($278B) rotates into gold, $5,000/oz is not only plausible—it sits inside the low end of what flow math + today’s market microstructure can deliver. The path (and whether we print $8k+ spikes) hinges on how much of that flow shows up as short-dated calls—because that is what turns steady demand into a self-feeding gamma loop. ________________________________________ Executive summary • A 1% rotation out of U.S. Treasuries is roughly $278B of new gold demand (using SIFMA’s latest estimate that Treasuries outstanding ≈ $27.8T). • At today’s context (gold ~$3.53k/oz on Sep 2–5, 2025), $278B buys ~79.4M oz ≈ 2,471 tonnes; at $5k/oz it buys ~55.6M oz ≈ 1,729 tonnes. For scale, annual mine supply ≈ 3,661 t and total above-ground stocks ≈ 216,265 t (bars/coins+ETFs ≈ 48,634 t). • That flow is huge relative to both quarterly demand value (Q2’25 ≈ $132B) and typical daily trading turnover (~$290B/day across OTC, futures & ETFs). Even spread out, it materially tilts the tape; if concentrated and routed via options, it can produce dealer hedging feedback—i.e., a gamma squeeze. • Price targets (framework, not prophecy): o Conservative flow-only: +40–60% → $4,900–$5,600/oz o Base case (flow + some options reflexivity): +70–110% → $6,000–$7,500/oz o Squeeze/overshoot window (short-dated calls heavy): episodic spikes >$8,000/oz possible, but hard to sustain without continued flow. These bands come from scaling prior ETF-driven episodes (notably ~877 t ETF inflow in 2020 alongside a ~+36% price run) and sizing against current market depth, while layering a realistic options-hedging multiplier (details below). ________________________________________ 1) What a “gamma squeeze” in gold means (and why it can happen) Definition (in one line): When call buying concentrates near-dated, near-the-money strikes, dealers short gamma must buy futures as price rises (and sell if it falls) to keep neutral—this feedback accelerates upside (“gamma squeeze”). Why it’s plausible in gold right now: • The listed derivatives stack is large. As of Fri, Sep 5, 2025, CME’s daily bulletin shows COMEX gold options open interest ~0.80M contracts (calls ~0.49–0.69M; puts ~0.30–0.38M depending on line item), each on 100 oz—i.e., option OI notionally ties to ~2,400–2,800 t of gold. That is the powder keg a call-wave can act on. • Implied vol is moderate (GVZ ~18 for 30-day GLD options), so vega is “affordable,” gamma is punchy in the front end. • CME’s CVOL framework and open-interest tools confirm where strikes/expiries cluster; when OI stacks close to spot and near expiry, market-wide gamma becomes most sensitive. Back-of-envelope hedging math (illustrative): For a 30-day, at-the-money option with σ≈18%, the Black-Scholes gamma is about Γ≈ϕ(0)SσT≈0.399S⋅0.18⋅30/365\Gamma \approx \frac{\phi(0)}{S\sigma\sqrt{T}} \approx \frac{0.399}{S\cdot 0.18 \cdot \sqrt{30/365}}. At S=$3,500/oz, that’s ~0.0022 per $. A +1% move (+$35) bumps delta by ~0.077 per option. If just 150k near-ATM front-tenor calls are held by customers (dealers short gamma), hedge buying ≈ 150,000 × 100 oz × 0.077 ≈ 1.16M oz ≈ 36 t—per 1% price pop. That’s only a slice of total OI; a broader crowding raises this number. Compare with ~2,500 t/day of global turnover and you can see how concentrated dealer hedging can move price intraday. ________________________________________ 2) Sizing a 1% Treasury → gold rotation Treasury base: latest SIFMA comment put U.S. Treasuries outstanding ≈ $27.8T (Q1’25). 1% → $278B. Gold the rotation would buy: • At $3,500/oz: $278B → ~79.4M oz → ~2,471 t • At $5,000/oz: $278B → ~55.6M oz → ~1,729 t For scale: • Annual mine supply (2024): ~3,661 t; total supply (incl. recycling): ~4,974 t. A $278B buy ticket equals 47–67% of a year’s mine output (depending on price), or ~35–50% of total annual supply. • ETF precedent: In 2020, ~877 t net ETF inflow (~$48B) coincided with a ~+36% move from Jan→Aug 2020. Today’s $278B is ~5–6× that dollar size (and ~2–3× the tonnes, depending on price), hinting at large flow-driven upside even before any options reflexivity. • Turnover lens: WGC puts average daily trading across OTC/futures/ETFs at roughly $290B/day recently. A $278B program is ~one day’s global turnover. Pushed quickly (or skewed to options), that’s impactful; stretched over months, the price impact softens but still accumulates. Futures-only lens (capacity check): At $3,500/oz, one COMEX GC contract notionally = $350k (100 oz). $278B equals ~794k GC contracts. Current futures OI is ~0.49M contracts, so this exceeds all COMEX OI—you cannot push that much via futures quickly without major repricing. Even at $5,000/oz (~$500k/contract), it’s ~556k contracts, still comparable to the entire OI. ________________________________________ 3) Price-target framework (with the math that gets you there) Think of the price in layers: (A) base flow impact + (B) options-gamma reflexivity + (C) second-round effects (short-covering, momentum, FX, central banks). A) Flow-only impact (calibrated to 2020) • 2020 anchor: 877 t ETF inflow ↔ ~+36% price. Using a simple proportionality, 1,729–2,471 t (your $278B) maps to ~+71% to +101%. • Apply to spot ≈ $3,532/oz (early Sep 2025): o +71% → ~$6,050/oz o +101% → ~$7,100/oz Caveat: 2020 had unique macro tailwinds, so I treat this as upper-middle of base range. B) Options reflexivity / gamma squeeze overlay If 20–30% of the $278B rotation expresses via short-dated calls (common for levered macro expressions), dealer hedging can amplify flow impact: • From the OI math earlier, a mere 1% up-move can demand ~20–40 t of dealer hedge buying if near-ATM OI is thick. A 3–5% multi-day grind can easily cascade into 100–200 t of incremental buying from hedgers alone. That’s non-trivial vs. mine supply pace, and it pulls forward upside. • Result: add another +10–20% to the flow-only levels during a squeeze while it lasts. C) Second-round effects • Central banks: still persistent net buyers (>1,000 t/yr pace in recent years), tending to fade dips rather than rallies—a structural bid. • FX & rates: the GVZ ~18 regime means bursts of vol aren’t “expensive”; a weakening USD or policy shocks can tilt the target higher. Putting it together—scenario bands Scenario Assumptions Implied move Target Conservative $278B spread over 6–9 months, mostly physical/ETFs; limited options +40–60% $4,900–$5,600 Base case 50–70% to physical/ETFs, 30–50% to futures/options; moderate dealer short-gamma +70–110% $6,000–$7,500 Squeeze / overshoot Short-dated call concentration, dealers persistently short gamma; flow bunches in weeks +120–>150% (episodic) >$8,000 (brief spikes) $5,000 target is well within the conservative band if any meaningful fraction of the $278B pushes through quickly, even without a full-blown gamma loop. ________________________________________ 4) Why the market could mechanically gap higher • Market size vs. flow: Q2’25 total demand value = $132B. Dropping $278B into this ecosystem is a 2× quarterly shock. • Trading capacity: $278B ≈ one full day of global turnover; price impact is convex when the risk-absorption (dealers, miners, recyclers) cannot scale linearly day-by-day. • Derivatives gearing: With ~0.8M options contracts OI outstanding and futures OI ~0.49M, even a partial shift into calls forces hedge-buys on the way up, the hallmark of a squeeze. ________________________________________ 5) Key risks / reality checks • Time profile of the rotation matters. A slow, programmatic shift spreads impact; a front-loaded move can overshoot then mean-revert as gamma decays. • Elasticity is asymmetric. Jewelry/fabrication falls at high prices (demand destruction), recycling rises, both cushioning extremes. That moderates how long >$7k can persist without continued flow. • Volatility regimes change. If GVZ spikes to high-20s/30s, option premia jump, slowing new call demand; conversely, put demand can flip net gamma long for dealers, dampening squeezes. ________________________________________ References (most load-bearing) • Treasury base: SIFMA—Treasuries outstanding $27.8T (Feb 2025). • Gold supply & stocks: WGC—Above-ground stock 216,265 t (end-2024); bars/coins+ETFs 48,634 t; mine supply 2024 ≈ 3,661 t. • Trading turnover: WGC—gold trading ≈ $290B/day. • ETF precedent: WGC—2020 ETF inflows 877 t (~$47.9B) alongside major price rise. • Current price context: Reuters—record highs $3,532/oz set in early Sep 2025. ( • Options/hedging plumbing: CME daily bulletin (Sep 5, 2025) showing gold options OI ~0.8M contracts; CME CVOL/tools; Cboe GVZ ~18 as 30-day IV. ________________________________________
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ProjectSyndicate
41
Why Now is the Best Time to Load Up on T-BillsIn 2025, investors have a unique opportunity to capitalize on high yields from Treasury Bills (T-Bills) as interest rates hover at their highest levels in years. With indications that the Federal Reserve may soon start cutting rates, now could be the ideal time to invest in T-Bills through the TLT ETF. This article explores why investing in T-Bills now could reap significant returns over the next decade. Key Points: Highest Interest Rates in Years: Current interest rates on T-Bills are elevated, offering attractive yields for investors. Historical data shows that such high yield opportunities are rare and may not be seen again for years. Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations: The Federal Reserve has signaled potential rate cuts due to concerns about job market stability and inflation trends. Market expectations suggest that rate cuts may begin later in 2025, which could reduce yields on T-Bills in the future. Strategic Advantage of T-Bills: Investing now allows investors to lock in current high yields before potential rate cuts reduce returns. T-Bills offer a safe investment with guaranteed returns, backed by the U.S. government, making them a low-risk option. Why TLT ETF? The TLT ETF provides exposure to long-term Treasury securities, making it an excellent vehicle for capitalizing on current high yields. The advantages of using an ETF include ease of trading and diversification. Conclusion: With interest rates at a peak and expectations of future rate cuts, now is a strategic time to invest in T-Bills via the TLT ETF. By taking advantage of the current high yields, investors can secure returns that may not be available again for years to come. TVC:DXY NASDAQ:MSTR TVC:GOLD TVC:SILVER BITSTAMP:BTCUSD $VNIDIA NASDAQ:TSLA VANTAGE:SP500
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by CassianDrake
4
Gold Holds 4,010 Ahead of Powell as Shutdown Clouds CPI OutlookHey Traders, In today’s session, we’re keeping a close eye on XAUUSD for a potential buy setup around the 4,010 zone. Gold remains in a broader uptrend, and the current pullback brings price action near a key support and trend confluence that could attract fresh buyers. All eyes are on Fed Chair Powell’s remarks later today. With the U.S. government shutdown disrupting key economic releases, including a possible delay of next week’s CPI data, Powell’s tone could heavily influence short-term Dollar sentiment—and by extension, Gold momentum. If Powell hints at policy caution amid data uncertainty, the safe-haven narrative could re-emerge quickly. We’ll be watching closely for a potential technical trigger to align with the macro backdrop. Trade safe, Joe.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by JoeChampion
13
EUR/NZD Correction Loading… or Just a Trap? Watch 2.0000 Closely🔹 COT (Commitment of Traders) Euro Futures: Non-commercial longs slightly decreased (-789) while shorts increased (+2,625) → mild bearish tone on EUR. NZD Futures: Non-commercial longs rose sharply (+3,044) along with shorts (+6,160) → institutional traders adding exposure on both sides, but still heavily net short on NZD (≈3:1 short/long). 📌 Combined Interpretation: Despite the small decline in EUR sentiment, the strong short positioning on NZD keeps the broader bias bullish for EUR/NZD in the medium term, though near-term correction is likely after recent highs. 🔹 FX Sentiment (Retail Positioning) 82% short vs 18% long. 📌 Retail traders are extremely net short → strong contrarian bullish signal. This suggests the downside could be limited before another potential upside leg. 🔹 Seasonality October is typically positive for NZD. EUR tends to be flat to slightly negative in October. 📌 Seasonal bias: mildly bearish for EUR/NZD — NZD’s seasonal strength could fuel a temporary pullback, aligning with the current technical setup. 🔹 Price Action Rejection from major supply zone 2.0250–2.0350, forming a potential double-top. Price now consolidating near 2.0050–2.0000, sitting just above key structure and ascending trendline support. RSI neutral → room for further retracement. Break below 2.0000 could accelerate the correction toward 1.9850–1.9750 demand zone. Bullish structure would resume only above 2.0250. 🎯 Outlook: Expect a corrective leg toward 1.9850–1.9750 before potential bullish continuation. Structure remains constructive as long as price stays above 1.9700.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
XAUUSD 15m – FOMC Setup AheadTVC:GOLD Structure | Trend | Key Reaction Zones Price still maintaining a descending channel structure. Sitting near psychological and demand support zone (4030–4025). FOMC volatility expected — final structure below 4025 could trigger continuation down, else a short-term bullish correction may occur. Market Overview Gold has been under intense selling pressure before the FOMC event, forming multiple lower highs within a bearish channel. The zone around 4030–4025 remains a key area where liquidity may sweep before a potential retracement toward upper levels if the market rejects strongly from this zone. Key Scenarios ✅ Bullish Case 🚀 → Bounce from 4030–4025 → 🎯 Target 4068 → 🎯 Target 4085 → 🎯 Target 4100 ❌ Bearish Case 📉 → Break below 4020 → 🎯 Target 4005 → 🎯 Target 3980 Current Levels to Watch Resistance 🔴: 4068 / 4085 Support 🟢: 4030 / 4020 ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Not financial advice.
TVC:GOLDLong
by vipblueprintfx
USDJPY breakout: Can the rally extend toward 155?The dollar-yen pair smashed through 150 with one of the strongest breakouts recently, confirming a new technical phase as it trades above the 61.8% Fib retracement. Here’s what’s fuelling the move and what traders should watch next: Dollar strength returned as safe haven flows dominate, even with a US government shutdown, while Japan’s new prime minister’s dovish signals are sending the yen into freefall. Key drivers Safe haven flows : Investors seek shelter in the dollar as global uncertainty rises; DXY index hit a 6-week high. Yield differentials : The Fed/BOJ spread powers further carry trade buying as Japanese rates remain ultra-low. Japanese political shift : PM Takaichi’s win spurs fiscal stimulus and pushes back market hopes for BOJ tightening, deepening yen weakness. Technical breakout : Clean break above multi-year resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement; watch for support validation and continuation toward the next 78.6% Fib at 154.80. What to watch Holding above 150 and 61.8% Fib support sets the stage for a bullish continuation. Profit taking is possible near 153.25–154.80, as RSI shows signs of overbought. Tonight’s FOMC minutes, Thursday’s BoJ/Ueda speech, and political headlines could trigger sharp moves. Cross-pair momentum : EURJPY at record highs, GBPJPY surging, confirming broad-based yen weakness. The bulls are in control as long as USDJPY stays above 151.15–150.50. Pullbacks to support offer opportunities to buy dips, with 154.80 as the next bullish target. Keep stop losses disciplined, and don’t ignore the chance for sharp reversals if intervention or a dramatic shift in sentiment emerges. For more actionable FX insight, follow ThinkMarkets. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Long
by ThinkMarkets
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Oct 8, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Oct 8, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🚩 FOMC Minutes drop: Traders zero in on the Fed’s tone around balance sheet runoff and rate-cut timing clues. 📉 Macro sentiment reset: Bond yields + USD volatility remain key — equities tracking real-rate shifts post-minutes. 💬 Fed chorus continues: Barr, Kashkari, and Goolsbee headline a dense speaker lineup shaping policy narrative. 💻 Tech leadership check: Mega-caps face another liquidity test as macro dominates tape action. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 9:20 AM — Alberto Musalem (St. Louis Fed) remarks ⏰ 9:30 AM — Michael Barr (Fed Governor) speech ⏰ 🚩 2:00 PM — FOMC Minutes (September Meeting) ⏰ 3:15 PM — Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis Fed) speech ⏰ 5:45 PM — Michael Barr (Fed Governor) remarks ⏰ 7:15 PM — Austan Goolsbee (Chicago Fed) speech ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #FOMC #Fed #Powell #Barr #Kashkari #Goolsbee #minutes #bonds #Dollar #economy #megacaps
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
EUR/AUD Ready for Another Drop? Watch 1.7500!🔹 COT (Commitment of Traders) Euro Futures: Non-commercial longs slightly decreased (-789) while shorts increased (+2,625) → mild bearish sentiment on the Euro. AUD Futures: Non-commercial longs increased (+1,718) while shorts surged strongly (+10,148) → clear bearish positioning on the Australian Dollar. 📌 Combined Interpretation: Mixed signals — institutional investors are trimming Euro longs while heavily increasing AUD shorts, which could sustain EUR/AUD strength in the short term despite mild Euro weakness. 🔹 FX Sentiment (retail positioning) 56% short vs 44% long. 📌 Retail slightly net short → mild contrarian signal supporting short-term upside for EUR/AUD, but not extreme enough to indicate a reversal. 🔹 Seasonality October is historically neutral to slightly bullish for the Australian Dollar, suggesting potential resilience. However, Euro tends to gain modestly into late Q4, often supported by defensive flows. 📌 Seasonal bias leans slightly bearish for EUR/AUD in October, but momentum remains fragile and can easily flip on macro catalysts. 🔹 Price Action EUR/AUD rejected from the 1.7920–1.7950 supply zone, confirming a descending channel structure. Price bounced from the local support around 1.7660–1.7680, with sellers still in control below the upper trendline. RSI neutral, showing potential for continuation lower after a minor corrective pullback. Key downside target remains at 1.7500, followed by 1.7400 extension if momentum persists. Bullish invalidation only above 1.7930, which would confirm a breakout from the descending channel. 🔹 Trading Outlook Main Bias: Bearish short-term, supported by technical rejection and macro weakness in the Euro. Contrarian Risk: Slightly short retail exposure could trigger a corrective bounce before the next leg down. Key Levels: Resistance: 1.7800 / 1.7930 Support: 1.7600 / 1.7500 / 1.7400
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
4
NAS100 - Stock Market on Federal Holiday!The index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour time frame and is in its long-term ascending channel. If the upward momentum decreases, we can expect a correction to the demand zones and buy Nasdaq in that range with an appropriate reward for the risk. Traders in prediction markets now estimate that the U.S. federal government shutdown could last more than a week and potentially extend into mid-October. These projections suggest that Washington’s political environment has reached a deadlock, making a swift agreement in Congress increasingly unlikely. The shutdown began early Wednesday morning after Democrats and Republicans—along with President Donald Trump—failed to reach a compromise on a temporary funding bill. As a result, hundreds of thousands of federal employees have been placed on unpaid leave, and numerous government programs and public services have been suspended. According to data from Bank of America, since 1990, U.S. government shutdowns have lasted an average of 14 days. Although the S&P 500 has typically risen about 1% during such periods, an extended impasse could weigh heavily on an already fragile economy and markets near record highs. The credit rating agency Fitch stated that the current shutdown will not have a direct impact on the United States’ credit rating, which remains at AA+ with a stable outlook. However, the agency noted that repeated reliance on short-term funding resolutions reflects persistent weaknesses in U.S. fiscal governance. Still, Fitch expects the U.S. dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency to remain intact in the near future. Fitch also added that a short-lived shutdown is unlikely to affect most public-finance credits, though a prolonged one could pose negative risks for bond issuers—particularly those dependent on federal funding in areas such as healthcare, housing, and higher education. Meanwhile, UBS argued that concerns over the U.S. government shutdown have been overstated, predicting that its economic impact will be limited and short-lived. The bank advised investors to look beyond political noise and instead focus on Federal Reserve rate cuts, corporate earnings, and opportunities in artificial intelligence. Economists at Citi expect the Federal Reserve to implement two 25-basis-point rate cuts in October and December, in line with its Dot Plot projections. However, the shutdown could delay access to key labor and inflation data, forcing investors to rely more heavily on private sources such as ADP reports. Similarly, Bank of America forecasts a rate cut in October but notes that markets have already priced in this outcome, assigning a 95% probability for October and 85% for December. In essence, this projection merely aligns with the consensus that has already formed among traders. In actual market developments, expectations have shifted back toward easing policies. Over the past two weeks, the hawkish pressure that had supported the dollar has eased, and markets are once again pricing in a lower-rate trajectory. Currently, about 105 basis points of rate cuts are priced in for next year, compared with a previous low of 94 basis points—a shift that favors equities while weighing on the dollar. According to Daniel Pavilonis, senior commodities broker at RJO Futures, the government shutdown will not significantly impair the Fed’s ability to assess labor market conditions. “The Fed relies more on its proprietary datasets than on official government statistics,” he explained. “Even amid a shutdown, policymakers maintain a fairly accurate picture of the economy.” After a week dominated by employment data—some released and others delayed due to the shutdown—the upcoming week is expected to be relatively quiet for official U.S. economic releases unless a resolution is reached.Instead, market attention will pivot toward remarks from Federal Reserve officials. On Wednesday, the minutes of the September FOMC meeting will be released, offering deeper insight into policymakers’ views on the rate path and inflation risks. Then, on Friday, the University of Michigan’s preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index for October will shed light on household perceptions of the economy and their financial conditions—a key gauge for domestic demand strength. In addition, investors will closely monitor speeches from several Fed officials, including Bostic, Bowman, Miran, Kashkari, Barr, and Musalem. Their comments could directly influence market expectations for monetary policy and shape trading sentiment in the days ahead.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by Ali_PSND
XAUUSD - Will Gold Hit $4,000?!Gold is trading above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the hourly chart and is trading in its medium-term ascending channel. A correction towards the demand zone will provide us with a better risk-reward buying opportunity. It should be noted that these positions are intended to hedge against this uptrend. In early Monday trading in Asian markets, global gold prices surpassed $3,900 per ounce for the first time, driven by stronger demand for safe-haven assets amid the U.S. government shutdown and rising expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts. Goldman Sachs once again reaffirmed its bullish outlook on gold, calling it its “most favored long-term commodity asset”, even as the precious metal continues to reach new record highs. Analysts at the bank believe the upward momentum remains intact. Goldman forecasts that gold will reach $4,000 by mid-2026 and $4,300 by December 2026. However, the bank cautioned that upside risks beyond these projections are emerging. Notably, speculative flows account for only about 1% of the recent 14% rally, signaling stronger and more sustainable support from ETFs and central banks. Marc Chandler, CEO of Bannockburn Global Forex, commented: “Gold has risen for the seventh consecutive week, having declined in only one week since late July. The U.S. government shutdown, Europe’s debate over reusing Russian reserves, and ongoing hybrid tensions across Europe have all contributed to this rally.” He added, “A short-term support level has formed near $3,800, and reaching $4,000 no longer seems far-fetched.” Similarly, Darin Newsom, senior market analyst at Barchart.com, noted: “The market trend remains bullish. The U.S. economy has not improved—if anything, it has deteriorated further. Central banks and global investors clearly recognize this and continue accumulating gold.” For this week, considerable uncertainty surrounds the U.S. data release calendar. If Democrats and Republicans manage to reach an agreement on a temporary funding bill early in the week, the September employment report could be released on schedule Friday. Estimates suggest a modest improvement in job creation, with around 50,000 new positions, though the weak ADP private payrolls data paints a more cautious picture. Still, downside risks to employment remain, reinforcing expectations for further rate cuts. Even if the jobs report is delayed, the ongoing government shutdown alone could drive markets to increase bets on rate reductions, as a surge in furloughed federal workers and reduced economic output from halted government operations may compel the Fed to lower borrowing costs. Beyond Washington’s political standoff, investors’ focus this week will be on the minutes from the Fed’s September meeting, which could reveal growing divisions among policymakers over the labor market outlook. The Fed’s latest dot plot highlights a widening gap between hawkish and dovish members, meaning any new clues in the minutes about the timing or pace of rate cuts could spark a strong market reaction. Toward the end of the week, attention will also turn to the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment survey, particularly the inflation expectations component, which holds significant weight for gauging domestic demand. At the same time, the U.S. Treasury market faces a busy schedule of debt auctions, adding another layer of focus for investors.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
Will the AI frenzy drive US indices to new record highs again? Despite the US government shutdown risk and elevated valuation concerns, US equities continued their upward rally, driven primarily by strength in AI-related stocks. OpenAI’s valuation has surged to USD 500 billion, a sharp jump from the USD 300 billion valuation in an earlier SoftBank-led funding round earlier this year. This makes OpenAI the most valuable startup in the world, surpassing SpaceX. Citigroup (C) raised its forecast for global AI spending, projecting USD 490 billion by 2026 (up from USD 420 billion) and cumulative hyperscaler investments by Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), and others to reach USD 2.8 trillion by 2029, up from the previous USD 2.3 trillion estimate. US500 extended its rally to a new record high, maintaining a solid uptrend within the ascending channel. The diverging bullish EMAs point to the potential continuation of bullish momentum. If US500 breaches above the psychological resistance at 6800, the index may gain upward momentum toward the next psychological resistance at 7000. Conversely, if US500 breaks below the support at 6700, the index could retreat toward 6530.
CAPITALCOM:US500
by inkicho_exness