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USDJPY Deat Cat Bounce at play after Jackson Hole remarks?In this video, we analyse the sharp move in the USDJPY following crucial speeches from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Powell signalled the possibility of a September rate hike, highlighting ongoing weakness in the US labour market. Meanwhile, Ueda emphasised Japan's strong job market, supported by immigrant labour, which is driving wage growth and sustaining inflationary pressures. Ueda’s Hawkish Stance: Ueda maintained a hawkish tone, noting that wage hikes in larger Japanese companies are now spreading to smaller firms, strengthening expectations for continued inflation. This commentary increased the likelihood of a BOJ rate hike, giving the yen additional support. Market Reaction: Prior to the Symposium, traders were positioned for a potential rate cut by year-end. However, after Ueda’s remarks, futures market pricing suggests the odds of an October rate cut are now evenly split at 50-50. Technicals: Open triangle completion may trigger further downside after the post-JHS drop. Current rally to the upside could be a relief rally, part of a potential Dead Cat Bounce (DCB). This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Short
by ThinkMarkets
1
EUR/USD Could Skyrocket if They Cut 50bps!The market is certain that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates during tomorrow's meeting, with a small chance of a 50 bps reduction priced in. Two Fed policymakers, Chris Waller and Michelle Bowman , may be thinking of this FOMC meeting as an audition to take over the Fed Chair from Jerome Powell, which means they might push for a 50 bps cut tomorrow to impress President Trump (who thinks interest rates are 300 basis points too high at the moment). Additionally, Trump stooge Stephen Mirin was added to the voting Fed board yesterday, just in time to push for an outsized interest rate cut. This speculation is likely contributing to the recent rise in EUR/USD. Today’s movement has taken the pair above the prior yearly high at 1.1829, which was set in late July. This breakout signals the potential continuation of the bullish trend, with the next possible resistance coming into focus at the double swing highs from August 2021, around 1.1900.
by BlackBull_Markets
1
Euro hits four-year high on strong German investor confidence, UThe euro has posted sharp gains on Thursday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1867, up 0.90% on the day. The euro has not been at these levels since September 2021. German ZEW Economic Sentiment rose modestly in September to 37.3, up from 34.7 in August. This blew past the market estimate of 26.3 and the euro has responded with sharp gains. The survey of financial experts indicates cautious optimism, with the outlook for the export sector showing promise after a prolonged decline. At the same time, the index monitoring the current economic situation worsened, declining to -76.4 from 68.6, below the market estimate of -75.0. It has been a bumpy road for Germany, which is the only G7 economy that has not posted growth in the past two years. Once the locomotive that drove the eurozone economy, Germany finds itself the laggard of the bloc. US retail sales for August were stronger than expected at 0.6% m/m. This was unchanged from an upwardly revised 0.6% in July and easily beat the market estimate of 0.2%. Retail sales increased across most sub-categories, as consumers showed they were in a spending mood despite a weaker job market and higher prices due to President Trump's tariffs. Annualized, retail sales jumped 5.0%, up from an upwardly revised 4.1% in August and above the forecast of 3.2%. At the same time, consumer sentiment has been softening, with consumers concerned about the impact of the tariffs. All eyes are on the Federal Reserve, which is widely expected to lower interest rates on Wednesday for the first time since December 2024. The money markets have fully priced in a rate cut, with a quarter-point reduction practically a given. Investors will be looking for clues about the possiblity of additional rate cuts before the end of the year.
by OANDA
1
Dovish Spells or Hawkish Surprises? FOMC Prep for ES, NQ, GCLet’s start with the biggest event this week. Unless, of course, some unexpected headline swoops in and steals the spotlight — because markets love a good plot twist. Emotions are running high, and volatility is flying around like confetti at a surprise party nobody asked for. But don’t worry, Chair Powell might just play the role of the calm voice in the chaos. Markets are pricing in a 25 bps rate cut by the Fed this week. Interestingly, the future path of rate cut expectations has been in the doldrums. Is it a bird or a plane? No, it’s Superman. Likewise here, is it 1 cut or 2 cuts? No, it’s 3 cuts priced at this moment until the end of 2025. Excuse the humor, but what fun is it if you cannot entertain yourself while analyzing the complexities of markets day in and day out. Execution is boring; risk management is much like dementors sucking out life force when risk is not respected. And analyzing and preparation is where the creativity and fun is. And as Kurt Angle would say, it is “ True ”. Index futures including ES futures and NQ futures have all climbed steadily higher since September 2 low. Markets are turning higher in anticipation of a new bull run. Gold futures are rallying, currently trading above $3700. Since the Jackson Hole dovish pivot, gold has not looked back and has rocketed higher above major resistance. Our focus is on the Fed meeting. All eyes will be on the forward guidance; risks to inflation, risks for the labor market and FED’s SEP (Summary of Economic Projections). This also includes GDP forecasts and the most anticipated Dot Plot. Which of the two mandates will the Fed prioritize, labor market weakness or sticky inflation? The interesting thing to note is that despite sticky inflation, markets are anticipating 3 cuts of 25 bps for each of the meetings this year. Thus far, as we have previously mentioned, the Fed will likely be moving away from their 2% inflation target to an average inflation target in the range of 2% to 3%. This also implies that real rates i.e., nominal less inflation are going to fall sharply lower. Given this, we anticipate gold to continue higher as the US Dollar's purchasing power erodes away, with mounting debt, higher inflation and falling real yields. The real question we should be asking is: What if the meeting outcome is hawkish with the Fed delivering just 1 cut in the September meeting and staying on hold for the remainder of the year? What other risks are there that could pull stocks and indexes lower? And bonds higher? Tariffs at this point seem like an old talk unless something reinvigorates and puts them on the front and center of market worries. Based on these thoughts, here are our scenarios: Base Case: 25 bps cuts and dovish guidance but iterates meeting by meeting approach. ES & NQ: Data dependent Fed, that is likely behind the curve and markets may translate this as Fed too slow to react to emerging risks, risks of recession goes higher. In this case, although stocks may push higher with rates coming down initially, in our view, much of this is priced in and this may be ‘sell the fact moment’. Portfolio adjustment: Sell index futures, Buy Gold and Bonds. Ultra-Dovish: Fed’s dot plot confirms 2 additional rate cuts of 25 bps for Oct and Dec meeting and further 4 cuts till end of 2026 to bring terminal rate lower to 250-275. USD weakens further, real rates sink, reinforcing gold bid. Portfolio adjustment: Buy everything. Buy the dip. Hawkish Surprise Only 25 bps in September, then pause ES & NQ: • Sharp pullback as equities reprice for tighter liquidity. • ES could retrace recent gains, downside risk toward 4,900–5,000 zone. • NQ likely hit harder due to tech sensitivity to discount rate. GC: • Short-term correction as USD firms and yields spike. • However, downside may be limited if market shifts focus back to debt & long-term inflation risks. Risk-Off External Shock- Geopolitical event, tariffs ES & NQ: • Drop as risk sentiment sours; defensives outperform growth. • Bonds rally, yields fall, curve steepens if Fed cut expectations accelerate. GC: • Strong safe-haven bid, spikes higher regardless of Fed stance. Comment with your thoughts and let us know how you see the markets shaping up this week
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by EdgeClear
2
AUDUSD Gains Momentum Ahead of Fed DecisionDollar has been weakening, in particular since August 22nd when Powell spoke at Jackson Hole, acknowledged rising inflation risks, and more importantly, weakening labor data. Back then he signaled that the Fed could adjust rates with a 25 or possibly even a 50 basis point cut this Wednesday. Looking at FX pairs, what stands out to me is that we are clearly in risk-on mode, with commodity currencies doing very well since late August. Aussie is up almost 4% from the August 22nd lows, while other majors are lagging behind that performance. So it may not be a bad idea to focus on Aussie for potential longs versus the US dollar, especially considering inflation in Australia increased on a yearly basis from 1.9% in June to 2.8% in July, as reported on August 27th. This shows inflation is still a problem in Australia, so the RBA may not be looking to cut rates, which makes AUDUSD attractive on the upside. From an Elliott Wave perspective, I also like the impulsive characteristics on Aussie from the August 22nd close. In my view, we are still in an incomplete five-wave cycle, with the recent push beyond the July highs being wave three. After the next pullback in wave four, there could be a strong rebound, with the 0.6625 level standing out as attractive support on dips. I’ll certainly keep a close eye on this zone if a retracement occurs. It’s also worth noting that Aussie is now trying to break the trendline from the 2021 highs, which could be an interesting breakout point and support the recovery, at least until the five-wave cycle completes on the 8-hour chart. Grega
Long
by ew-forecast
1
Gold hit another record highGold hit another record high due to concerns over the Fed's independence and the recent weak US labor market. Yesterday evening, the US Senate officially confirmed Stephen Miran as President Trump's new nominee to the Federal Reserve Board in an incredibly tight 48-47 vote, raising concern that he will follow the US President and draw down the Fed's independence. Meanwhile, the US labor market has recently raised concerns about the stagflation situation, which is the best environment for gold as a safe-haven asset. Although the Sahm Rule is not triggering, weak immigration could understate the unemployment number and the break event number. Elsewhere, the expectation of an accelerated Fed rate cut could dampen the US dollar, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold. Technically, XAUUSD surpassed the Fibonacci Extension of 2.168 and tends to test the 3.800 level. Expanding EMAs (21,78) indicate strong bullish momentum.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by WiseLeoTrading
EUR/USD Breakout Incoming? COT & Sentiment Point to 1.1850COT Report (09/09/2025) EUR (Euro FX CME): Non-Commercials increased longs (+2,389) and reduced shorts (-3,696) → bullish bias. USD (US Dollar Index): Non-Commercials remain net short (24,750 vs 19,192 longs). Slightly bearish bias on the dollar. 👉 The combination suggests a favorable context for Euro strength against USD. 📊 Seasonality September is historically flat or slightly negative for EUR/USD, but over the last 5 years seasonality shows a recovery in the second half of the month. 👉 This reinforces the idea that downside risk is limited and that pullbacks may offer long opportunities. 🧠 Sentiment Retail traders: 74% short, only 26% long. Classic contrarian signal: retail is short, which supports a long bias. 📉P rice Action & Technicals (H1/D1/W1) Price is moving inside a daily ascending channel (uptrend in progress). Key resistance: 1.1800 – 1.1850 (weekly supply cluster). Main support: 1.1650 – 1.1600 (daily demand zone, RSI reacted). Daily RSI above 50 → positive momentum, not overbought. ✅ Operational Summary EUR/USD shows a favorable context (fundamentals + COT + sentiment) supporting the upside. Technical structure favors a test of 1.1850 resistance. Best strategy: look for long entries on pullbacks or breakouts, with invalidation below 1.1650.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
8
Will BoE's Plan to Rundown QT Impact Cable (GBP/USD)Direct Impact: The QT slowdown itself is a small, modestly GBP-positive factor. It may provide a slight underpinning of support. If the BoE delivers the QT slowdown as expected and it's framed as a technical move, its impact will likely be overshadowed by the simultaneous interest rate decisions and guidance from both the BoE and the Fed. If you are looking to trade this, don't trade the QT headline in isolation. Trade the broader package of BoE communication and the Fed's decision. A "hawkish hold" from the BoE (holding rates but signaling they stay high for longer) combined with a "dovish" Fed could send GBP/USD meaningfully higher. The QT slowdown would be a minor supporting actor in that drama. (Unless of course the FED holds rates) In short: Expect a potential small, brief pop for GBP on the QT news, but the real moves will be dictated by the interest rate decisions and forward guidance from both sides of the Atlantic. If BoE and FED hold, it could be a great asymmetric short end to the week!
by PointBreak42
British pound hits two-month high, UK job dataThe British pound has started the new trading week in positive territory. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3591, up 0.26% on the day. Earlier, the pound hit a daily high of 1.3620, its highest level since July 10. The UK releases employment data on Tuesday. Claimant counts is expected to jump to 20.3 thousand in August, after a rare decline in July which saw claimant counts decline by 6.2 thousand. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.7% for a third straight time, its highest level in four years. Wage growth including bonuses is expected to rise to 4.7%, up from 4.6% in the previous release, which was the lowest pace in nine months. It's a busy week in the UK, with the inflation report on Wednesday and the Bank of England rate decision on Thursday. The BoE is expected to maintain rates at 4.0% after last month's narrow 5-4 decision to lower rates. Governor Bailey has said rates would move "downwards gradually over time" but hasn't provided any details as to the timing or extent of cuts. The UK may have already entered stagflation, which is a toxic mix of persistently high inflation, weak growth and rising unemployment. This presents a major headache for the BoE, as weak growth supports a rate cut while high inflation could get worse if the BoE reduces rates. The central bank is hesitant to lower rates with inflation close to 4%, but may have to cut before the end of the year if the labor market continues to deteriorate. Tuesday's job report is unlikely to change minds at the BoE, which is expected to hold rates. Still, it could be a factor in the November rate decision. GBPUSD has pushed above resistance at 1.3564 and is testing 1.3589 Above, there is resistance at 1.3605 There is support at 1.3548
by OANDA
HARD SHORTMy former analysis successfully landed to target zone. And now market wants a pull back. 1-Above there is low liqudation 2-Next week we will probably see a rate cut. thats why I am a little nervous abot open short 3-Till that day I think whales will chase cheap asset that is where my courage come from 4-Market wants to see a pull back be careful about short you may just want to open long at the below Always manage your own risks this is not a investment advise I am not responsible neither your loss nor profit.
BINANCE:ETHUSDShort
by BayirKurdu
1
GBP/USD Weekly Outlook: Bulls Push Through as Range Expands Traders need to be careful this coming week. Now that this message has been delivered, speculators need to understand the GBP/USD will produce dynamic results. The U.S Federal Reserve is set to deliver their FOMC Statement and announce their Federal Funds Rate this coming Wednesday. The U.S central bank will cut interest rates this Wednesday. The GBP/USD has gone into this weekend having nudged higher compared to the start of last week. But the question everyone wants answered is, what will the Fed’s message be? The 1.35575 mark was achieved going into this weekend and folks who believe the GBP/USD must move higher in the coming days based on the Fed’s upcoming interest rate cut cannot be blamed. But this doesn’t mean they are correct. The Fed will likely cut their Federal Funds Rate by 25 basis points. GBP/USD Weekly Outlook: Speculative price range for GBP/USD is 1.35090 to 1.37500 This will be a dynamic week in Forex. The GBP/USD will not be immune to volatility. The currency pair will be fast and day traders need to practice supreme risk management so they are not burned by the speed of Forex. Having challenged highs last week around 1.35920 on Tuesday was good bullish action, but the selling that ensued afterwards is a warning sign that caution remains a fixture in financial institutions. As a note the GBP/USD did attain the 1.37900 vicinity on the 1st of July. Bullish traders may be dreaming of this higher values, but day traders with limited funds should be willing to cash out of big moves if profits are produced. The Federal Reserve hold the cards in the Forex market this week, the GBP/USD will react to the FOMC Policy Statement and everyone should be braced for fast conditions.
Long
by Nadia_farhat
Will steady Fed cut expectations fuel gold’s rise? Persistent Fed rate cut expectations and lingering geopolitical risks are sustaining demand for safe-haven assets. Initial jobless claims rose to 260k last week, the highest in four years, while August CPI showed little sign of tariff-driven inflation. With labor market weakness reaffirmed and tariff-related price pressures proving milder than feared, Fed cut expectations remain elevated. Morgan Stanley revised its outlook, now projecting four consecutive cuts from this month through the January FOMC. XAUUSD is holding near the 3650 high, maintaining its uptrend. The widening gap between both EMAs indicates the potential continuation of bullish momentum. If XAUUSD breaks above the 3650 resistance, the price could rise further toward 3700. Conversely, if XAUUSD breaks below the 3580 support, the price may retreat toward 3500.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by inkicho_exness
Bitcoin - Will Bitcoin break out of range?!Bitcoin is above EMA50 and EMA200 on the four-hour timeframe and is in its ascending channel. If the downward trend continues towards the specified demand range, we can buy Bitcoin with appropriate risk-reward. Bitcoin’s rise to around 121,000 and its arrival at the specified supply range will provide us with its next selling position. It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important. If the downward trend continues, we can buy within the demand range. Bitcoin continues to fluctuate within the $110,000 to $117,000 range, as reduced capital inflows into ETFs combined with intensified profit-taking exert mounting pressure on its upward momentum. In this environment, the derivatives market—driven by the strong presence of futures and options contracts—plays a central role in balancing and shaping market direction. Profit-taking by 3–6 month holders, alongside losses realized by recent buyers at price peaks, has fueled selling pressure across the market. On-chain liquidity still maintains a constructive structure, but signs of gradual weakening are evident. Meanwhile, net ETF inflows and outflows have declined to around 500 BTC per day, significantly undermining demand from traditional finance (TradFi), which had previously been a key driver of rallies in March and December 2024. Following the mid-August all-time high, market momentum steadily weakened, dragging Bitcoin below the cost basis of recent buyers at the top and pushing the asset back into a range-bound structure. The critical question now is whether this reflects a healthy consolidation phase or the beginning of a deeper corrective cycle. While dip-buyers provided some support, the primary selling pressure originated from experienced short-term holders. Data shows that 3–6 month holders have been realizing approximately $189 million in daily profits (based on the 14-day moving average), accounting for nearly 79% of total short-term holder realized gains. These figures indicate that many investors who entered the market during the February-to-May correction used the recent rally as an opportunity to lock in profits—creating considerable resistance against upward continuation. In addition to profit-taking from seasoned short-term holders, recent peak buyers also capitulated by realizing losses during the pullback, further amplifying selling pressure. Alongside on-chain dynamics, assessing external demand through ETFs remains crucial, as these instruments have been pivotal in driving the current market cycle. Since early August, net inflows into U.S. spot ETFs have sharply declined, currently averaging around 500 BTC per day (14-day moving average). This is far below the levels of capital inflows that had previously supported the bullish phase of the cycle, reflecting weakening momentum from TradFi investors. Given the central role of ETFs in fueling Bitcoin’s recent uptrend, the slowdown in flows makes the market’s current structure noticeably more fragile. Meanwhile, blockchain-based prediction platform Polymarket has announced a new collaboration with Chainlink. The partnership aims to launch 15-minute crypto prediction markets featuring rapid settlement and industry-leading security standards. The integration of Chainlink’s oracle technology with Polymarket’s trading infrastructure is expected to enhance user access to accurate and reliable data, delivering a new experience in short-term prediction markets. This collaboration could mark a turning point in the development of innovative trading instruments and price forecasting tools.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
15
NAS100 - Stock market awaits Federal Reserve meeting!The indicator is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the one-hour timeframe and is in its long-term ascending channel. If the drawn upward trajectory is maintained, I can expect the future to continue as it has in the past. In case of a valid breakdown, its downward path is to the specified range, which can be approached with a reward for buying. Last week’s economic data painted a mixed picture of the U.S. economy. On the one hand, new jobless claims rose to 263,000, above the market forecast of 235,000, signaling labor market weakness. On the other hand, the August inflation report came in hotter than expected, though most of the increase stemmed from housing costs rather than tariff pressures. Rents rose 0.34%, marking the fastest gain since December 2024, while shelter costs climbed 0.39%, the sharpest jump since January 2025. Still, real-time housing indicators suggest that prices are adjusting, which will likely be reflected in official data in the coming months. Meanwhile, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury fell below 4% for the first time since April—a sign that markets are reacting more to labor market weakness and the prospect of Fed rate cuts than to inflation concerns. CIBC, analyzing the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, stated that while the data came in slightly above expectations, it was not strong enough to dissuade the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) from delivering a 25-basis-point cut next week. Ali Jafari, an economist at the bank, wrote: “There was little in the report to prevent a September rate cut. More importantly, the labor market needs support, and a weaker jobs market implies softer demand-side inflationary pressures ahead.” On a yearly basis, core inflation held steady at 3.1%, while headline inflation rose two-tenths to 2.9%, both in line with forecasts. More troubling, however, are signs that price increases are spreading into new sectors. The report noted: “Tariff pass-through effects intensified this month, with core goods prices rising at the fastest pace since broad tariffs were imposed. Today’s report also showed the first notable increase in new car prices, suggesting that tariff impacts may now be extending to higher-ticket items, though overall car price gains remain modest.” CIBC expects the Fed to cut rates in September and October, pause afterward, and then deliver two additional cuts in the first half of next year. The bank added: “The overall U.S. inflation picture remains notably above target, but the Fed is willing to tolerate this for now, given growing concerns about a weakening economy and a labor market showing signs of fatigue.” Separately, U.S. President Donald Trump once again criticized the Fed in an interview with Fox News, saying the central bank “always acts late on interest rates.” He added: “We have the best stock market in history. Inflation has come down, equities are climbing, so rates should be lower.” These comments come as the Fed is widely expected to cut rates at Wednesday’s meeting. While such a move could reduce borrowing costs in the short term, analysts caution that lower short-term rates do not necessarily translate into lower long-term yields. Morgan Stanley now projects that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points at each of the three remaining meetings this year—an upgrade from earlier forecasts of only September and December cuts. The bank also expects three additional 25-basis-point cuts in January, April, and July of 2026. At the same time, Standard Chartered has revised its outlook and now anticipates a 50-basis-point cut in September—double its previous forecast. The shift followed weak August jobs data showing employment growth had slowed sharply and unemployment rose to 4.3%, the highest since late 2020. The bank described labor market conditions as “dramatic,” noting that in just six weeks the market shifted from “strong” to “weak.” It characterized the larger cut as a form of “catch-up” to align monetary policy with economic realities. This week is set to be pivotal for global markets, with a series of central bank decisions and key economic releases. Monday will see the Empire State manufacturing index, followed by Tuesday’s August retail sales report. On Wednesday, housing starts and building permits will be released, along with the Bank of Canada’s rate decision. The highlight of the week, however, will be the Fed meeting and Jerome Powell’s press conference. On Thursday, the Bank of England will announce its policy decision, followed by U.S. jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey. The busy week will conclude Friday with the Bank of Japan’s policy announcement.
CAPITALCOM:US100
by Ali_PSND
The countdown is on for the most anticipated Fed decision The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut rates by 25bps to 4.00–4.25, with 105 of 107 economists surveyed by Reuters forecasting that outcome. Still, the decision may not be unanimous. Some Committee members are not fully aligned on a September cut. Fed’s Goolsbee and Schmid could dissent in favour of leaving rates unchanged. There is also a possibility of a larger move. If the U.S. Senate confirms Stephen Miran’s nomination to the Fed Board on Monday, he could be sworn in just in time for the meeting, and some speculate he may vote for a 50bps cut. Governors Bowman and Waller, who have previously dissented dovishly, may also support a larger reduction.
by BlackBull_Markets
1
AUD/USD Ready for a Short Squeeze? COT Divergence Signals1. Retail Sentiment 73% of retail traders are short versus 27% long. Such an unbalanced positioning usually suggests short squeeze potential, as the market often moves against retail flows, especially when technical levels confirm the bias. 2. COT Report USD Index: Non-Commercials remain skewed to the short side (+18.6k short vs. +13.6k long), with a slight reduction. This indicates the dollar is losing part of its net strength. AUD Futures: Non-Commercials are heavily short (112k vs. 29k long), adding –16,930 new shorts. However, Commercials (hedgers) increased their longs (+11,908). Historically, commercials are more accurate at market turning points. This divergence may point to a bottom forming in AUD. 3. Seasonality (September) September has historically been neutral to slightly negative for AUD/USD: flat performance over 20 years, and weaker over the last 5 years. However, mid-to-late September seasonality stabilizes, setting the stage for an October recovery. Bearish pressure may start fading, leaving room for upside. 4. Technical Outlook Demand Zone: 0.6450–0.6500 has repeatedly rejected price, confirming strong support. Supply Zone: 0.6650–0.6700, recently tested, represents the first upside target. Structure: Price is printing higher lows and showing signs of a potential bullish structure shift. RSI is neutral, with no overbought signals. Possible Scenario: A short pullback into 0.6520–0.6540 before accelerating toward 0.6680–0.6700. 5. Trading Summary Bias: Moderately bullish in the short-to-medium term. Key Drivers: Extreme retail short positioning → potential squeeze. COT divergence (specs heavily short, commercials long) → possible bottom. Weak but improving seasonality. Technical structure favoring upside continuation. 👉 Bottom line: AUD/USD favors long setups, but heavy Non-Commercial short exposure implies volatility could remain elevated.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
9
GBPCHF on the Edge: Why a Major Breakdown Could Be Next1. Retail Sentiment 90% of retail traders are long, only 10% are short. Long volume is heavily skewed (536 lots vs 58 short). ➡️ This imbalance suggests a risk of further downside pressure (contrarian view), as markets often move against the retail crowd. 2. COT Report (Sept 2, 2025) CHF: Non-commercials heavily short (34k vs 8k long). Commercials strongly long, hedging in favor of CHF strength. ➡️ Structural bullish bias for CHF. GBP: Non-commercials net short (109k vs 76k long). Commercials significantly long (117k vs 85k short), hedging a weak pound. ➡️ Confirms bearish pressure on GBP. Summary: Strong CHF – Weak GBP → Main direction: Short GBPCHF. 3. Seasonality (September) CHF: Historically strong in September. GBP: Historically weak in September. ➡️ Seasonality supports a short bias on GBPCHF. 4. Price Action Strong rejection from weekly supply zone (1.0850–1.0900). Bearish continuation candle below 1.0800 resistance. Next support: 1.0700–1.0680 zone. RSI trending lower with no divergence → bearish momentum intact. 5. Trading Plan Bias: Short GBPCHF. Key levels: Resistance: 1.0800 / 1.0850 (ideal short re-entry). Support: 1.0700 (first target), extension to 1.0650–1.0620 if bearish pressure continues. Strategy: Wait for a pullback into 1.0800–1.0850 to short, stop above 1.0900. Targets: 1.0700 → 1.0650. If price breaks straight below 1.0700, expect continuation towards 1.0620. ✅ Pro conclusion: All factors (COT, sentiment, seasonality, technicals) align in favor of CHF strength and GBP weakness. The best setup is a short re-entry near 1.0800–1.0850, targeting 1.0700 and 1.0650 with controlled risk above 1.0900.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
5
USDCAD Breakdown Ahead? Seasonality & COT Divergence1. Retail Sentiment 59% short vs. 41% long: retail traders are moderately short on USD/CAD. This leaves room for a potential upside squeeze, but positioning is not extreme, so the contrarian signal remains only partial. 2. COT Report US Dollar (COT): Large Speculators net short USD (–5,558 contracts). Commercials net long USD (+6,642 contracts). → Speculators are unloading USD, pointing to structural weakness. Canadian Dollar (COT): Large Speculators net short CAD (–108,917 contracts). Commercials net long CAD (+115,041 contracts). → A classic pattern: commercials are buying CAD while speculators remain heavily short. Historically, such extreme divergence often precedes CAD appreciation phases. COT Summary: USD: weakness from speculators. CAD: commercials strongly long, speculators extremely short. → Clear divergence: potential CAD strength, bearish bias for USD/CAD. 3. Seasonality September has historically been bearish for USD/CAD: –0.37% over the last 20 years. Also negative on 10- and 2-year averages, more mixed on 5 years. The second half of the month tends to favor CAD strength. 4. Technical Outlook Supply Zone: 1.3850–1.3900 (key resistance repeatedly tested and rejected). Demand Zone: 1.3700–1.3720 (first short target), followed by 1.3600–1.3650. Structure: Strong rejection from the 1.3890 area. Lower highs forming. 50–100–200 MAs in bearish confluence. Daily rejection candle, confirming downside continuation potential. 5. Trading Plan Bias: Bearish (short USD/CAD). Setup: Short on pullbacks to 1.3840–1.3860. Target 1: 1.3720. Target 2: 1.3650. Invalidation: daily close above 1.3900. Confluences: ✔ Retail moderately short → room for squeeze, but not extreme. ✔ COT: weak USD + strong CAD commercials → bullish CAD signal. ✔ Seasonality: September historically bearish for USD/CAD. ✔ Technicals: rejection at supply + bearish structure.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
2
XAUUSD (Gold) Technical Projection📊 XAUUSD (Gold) Technical Forecast | Intraday & Swing Outlook ✨ Asset: XAUUSD (Gold CFD) Closing Price: $3,643.41 📌 (11th Sept 2025, 12:54 AM UTC+4) 🔎 Multi-Lens Technical Analysis 📉 Chart Patterns & Theories 🕯️ Candlesticks: Strong rejection at $3,660 resistance; possible reversal signals. 🎯 Harmonic: Potential bearish Gartley forming near $3,670–$3,690 zone. 🌊 Elliott Wave: Wave 4 correction likely unfolding; upside capped unless $3,700 breaks. 🏦 Wyckoff: Market nearing distribution phase with weakening momentum. 📐 Gann Theory: Time/price cycle hints at key inflection around Sept 15–16. ☁️ Ichimoku: Price hovering near cloud top, testing bullish continuation zone. 🎭 Bull Trap Alert: Break above $3,670 could trigger false upside before reversal. 🧩 Head & Shoulders: Left shoulder visible; neckline around $3,600 support. ⚖️ Support/Resistance: Major support $3,600 | Resistance $3,670–$3,700. 📊 Indicators & Tools 📈 RSI (14): Neutral (52) → Room for either breakout or correction. 📊 Bollinger Bands: Squeeze forming; volatility expansion expected soon. 📉 VWAP / VWMA: Current price slightly above VWAP → intraday bullish bias. 📏 Moving Averages: 50 EMA → $3,625 (near-term support) 200 EMA → $3,540 (swing support) Golden Cross intact → trend still bullish medium-term. ⏱️ Trading Time Frames Intraday Strategy (5m–4H) 🎯 Buy Zone: $3,620–$3,630 (if tested with bullish confirmation). 🚀 Upside Target: $3,660–$3,670; Breakout extension → $3,690. 🛑 Stop Loss: Below $3,610 (tight risk management). ⚠️ If $3,670–$3,690 rejects → look for sell setup back to $3,600. Swing Strategy (4H–Monthly) 📍 Buy Range: $3,580–$3,600 for swing accumulation. 🎯 Swing Targets: $3,700 → $3,740 → $3,800 (extension possible). 🛑 Swing Stop: Below $3,550 closes. ⚠️ Bearish swing trigger if $3,600 breaks → downside $3,540 then $3,500. 🌍 Market Context 📰 Fed rate expectations & USD strength remain key drivers. ⚔️ Geopolitical risks (Middle East + Asia tensions) could fuel safe-haven demand. 💹 Rising equity volatility may enhance Gold bids short-term. 📌 Summary ✅ Bullish Bias: Above $3,600 support. ❌ Bearish Bias: Below $3,600 with momentum. 🎯 Key Levels to Trade: Buy: $3,620–$3,630 / Swing Buy: $3,580–$3,600 Sell: $3,670–$3,690 rejection / Swing Sell: Below $3,600 📢 Action Plan: Intraday: Trade the $3,620–$3,670 range breakout/rejection. Swing: Hold long above $3,600; flip bearish only if breakdown confirmed. ⚡️ Stay disciplined. Respect stop-losses. Let the market come to you.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDLong
by sunya
Melt-Up into FOMC - Post FED Expect CorrectionMore all-time highs I shouldn't be upset (and I'm really not as the portfolio continues to make new YTD highs) But technically, it is extremely frustrating to see nothing more than slow grind higher after slwo grind higher on the indexes - and also see blowout moves on individual stocks (ORCL, GOOGL, AVGO for example) Rising Wedge still hasn't rolled over, resistance at 6500 hasn't been a wall yet 50 Day Moving Average is now over 90 bars from price. I could see price action melting up into a crescendo or peak pre, during, or post FOMC and then fading lower after to find some technical levels I've been eyeing for weeks Enjoy the melt-up, just be ready for some action and volatility in the indexes, gold, silver, bitcoin, and the bond/yield markets I won't complain about YTD highs, but it's the caution ahead that I don't want to be surprised by in the coming weeks Plan accordingly - I'll continue to grind through it the best and safest way I know how Thanks for watching!!!
SP:SPX
by ChrisPulver