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FTSE100 surges to records despite CPI surprise but can it last?The FTSE 100 has surged to a new all-time high, defying expectations after UK inflation surprised to the upside at 3.8%. This resilience can be attributed to renewed global interest in undervalued UK stocks, particularly defensives, as investors anticipate a potential end to the BOE’s easing cycle in 2025 due to persistent price pressures. The market remains sensitive to global cues, with attention turning to the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium. A more hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve could reinforce risk aversion and further boost the FTSE’s appeal as a relative safe haven, while a dovish Fed may see flows return to US equities, posing a conditional risk to the FTSE’s rally. From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100’s recent breakout places immediate focus on the 9,367–9,400 resistance zone, which marks the upper boundary of the latest upward channel. A sustained daily close above 9,400 could open the door to further upside, targeting the psychological 9,500 level next. On the downside, initial support is seen at 9,200, with a break below there potentially exposing the 9,050–9,000 area for a deeper pullback. Traders should watch for confirmation of direction at these levels, as volatility may increase around key macro events. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:UK100Short
by ThinkMarkets
1
Gold, Silver soar on rate cut hopes & Trump tariff rullingGold and silver are making headlines as both metals surge amid a mix of macroeconomic and technical factors. Gold is trading just below its all-time record, having recently touched $3,495 per ounce, while silver has soared to a 14-year high of above $40.50. The main catalyst behind this rally is growing confidence that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates soon, following dovish signals from Fed officials and signs of a softening US job market. With markets now pricing in a 90% chance of a rate cut, the US dollar has weakened, making non-yielding assets, such as gold and silver, more attractive. The recent US court ruling that deemed most of President Trump’s tariffs illegal has added further pressure on the dollar, while thin trading conditions due to a US bank holiday have amplified price moves. Bullish signals for gold and silver are strong. Both metals are also benefiting from tight supply conditions and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, which are driving investors toward safe-haven assets. Gold is consolidating just below record highs, and technical analysis points to a potential breakout from a bullish symmetrical triangle pattern. If confirmed, this could propel gold toward new highs, with targets in the $3,550–$3,820 range. Silver’s rally is supported by a classic pennant formation, with technical projections suggesting a move toward $42 is possible in the short term. However, there are bearish risks to consider. If upcoming US employment data surprises to the upside or inflation remains stubbornly high, the Fed could delay or scale back rate cuts, which would strengthen the dollar and potentially cap further gains in gold and silver. Additionally, both metals are trading near major resistance levels, and a failure to break out convincingly could trigger profit-taking or a technical pullback. For gold, support sits around $3,440, with the 50-day moving average at $3,350 providing a key floor. For silver, a drop below $39.55 could signal a short-term reversal. While the setup favours further upside, especially if the Fed delivers on market expectations, traders should stay alert to key data releases and resistance levels that could shift the narrative in either direction. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:XAGUSD
by ThinkMarkets
EUR/USD at a Breaking Point: 1.1450 Demand in FocusCommitment of Traders (COT) USD Index (ICE Futures): Non-Commercials reduced both long (-1,370) and short (-1,629) positions. Positioning remains net short on the dollar (11,359 long vs 17,347 short), signaling relative weakness of the greenback. EUR Futures (CME): Non-Commercials significantly increased long positions (+6,420) and also added shorts (+3,106), but net long exposure remains dominant (252,719 long vs 133,974 short). This reflects renewed bullish interest in the euro. 📌 COT Summary: Institutional flows indicate a bullish bias on EUR and bearish bias on USD, supporting a medium-term long outlook on EUR/USD. Seasonality August is historically a weak month for the euro: seasonality shows, on average, a decline in EUR/USD during the second half of the month into early September, followed by a recovery later in Q3. 📌 Seasonal Bias: Slightly bearish in the short term, with potential for a rebound later. Retail Sentiment 58% of retail traders are short EUR/USD, compared with 42% long. 📌 Contrarian view: This increases the probability of a bullish move, as retail positioning is skewed against the trend. Technical Context Structure: EUR/USD is trading at 1.1636, within a range, with a supply zone above 1.1750 and a key demand zone between 1.1520–1.1450. RSI: Neutral, with no extreme overbought/oversold conditions. Primary Scenario: Potential further dip towards 1.1520–1.1450, where institutional buyers may re-enter. Secondary Scenario: If this support breaks, the next target lies in the 1.1350–1.1400 zone. Key Resistance: 1.1750–1.1800. 📌 Operational View: The market may still release downward pressure in the short term, but the 1.1450–1.1500 area appears strategic for potential long entries aligned with COT and sentiment.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
14
German inflation and US core PCE rise, euro edges lowerThe euro is slightly lower on Friday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1657, down 0.21% on the day. Germany has released the preliminary inflation report for July, with a hotter-than expected reading. Annually, EU-harmonised CPI rose to 2.1%, up from 1.8% in June and above the market estimate of 2.0%. The figure was the highest level since March, driven by higher food prices. Monthly, inflation eased to 0.1%, below the June reading of 0.4% and just above the market estimate of 0%. Headline inflation in Germany, the eurozone's biggest economy, is largely in check but the battle against inflation is not over. Services inflation remained at 3.1% and core CPI was unchanged at 2.7%. Policymakers at the European Central Bank won't be losing sleep over the slight gain in inflation. The eurozone releases July inflation next week, with CPI expected to nudge higher to 2.1% from 2.0% and core CPI to 2.4% from 2.3%. The ECB meets next on September 11 and is expected to maintain its key deposit rate at 2.0%. The US wrapped up the week with the Core PCE index, the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge for underlying inflation. In July, core PCE rose by 2.9%, up from 2.8% in June and in line with the consensus. It was the highest level in five months and a reminder that although inflation is largely under control, the fight is not over. Monthly, core PCE was unchanged at 0.3%. Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who is a candidate to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair next year, gave a hawkish speech on Thursday. Waller said he supported a rate cut in September and hinted at support for larger cuts if the labor market continued to soften.
by OANDA
Australian CPI expected to jump, Aussie steadyThe Australian dollar is in negative territory on Wednesday. In the European session, AUD/IUSD is trading at 0.6468, down 0.40% on the day. Australia's CPI for July surprised on the upside, jumping to 2.8% y/y. This followed a 1.9% gain in June and was above the market estimate of 2.3%. The spike in inflation, the highest level since July 2024, was driven by a sharp increase in electricity prices due to the end of government electricity rebates for many households. The trimmed mean, a key gauge of core CPI, rose to 2.7% in July from 2.1% in June. The surprise jump in inflation has dampened expectations for a September rate cut. The money markets have reduced the probability of a rate cut to 22%, down from 30% before the inflation release. Despite the hot inflation report, the Reserve Bank is expected to continue its easing cycle, with a 61% probability of a cut in November. The central bank remains very concerned about inflation but is also focused on employment, with the labor market showing signs of weakening. The minutes of the RBA's August meeting said that upcoming rate decisions would depend on the data. The RBA meets next on September 19 and there are three key releases in September prior to the meeting - inflation, GDP and employment. The RBA has surprised the markets before and if these upcoming releases show a drop in economic activity or inflation, the RBA could respond with a rate cut next month. The nasty feud between the Federal Reserve and Donald Trump has taken another twist, as the President said he had removed Fed Governor Lisa Cook due over charges that she made false statements on mortgage applications. The Fed says that Trump does not have authority to fire Cook. This latest spat further undermines the credibility of the US and could hurt the US dollar.
by OANDA
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Aug 27, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Aug 27, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🇺🇸➡️🇮🇳 U.S. slaps 50% tariffs on Indian goods (textiles, gems, leather, machinery) starting today — inflation & trade ripple risk. 💻 Earnings spotlight: Nvidia, CrowdStrike, Snowflake, Alibaba reporting this week → tech volatility in focus. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ All Day — U.S. Treasury Auctions (10-year note, 5-year note + FRN). ⏰ 11:45 AM — Richmond Fed Pres. Tom Barkin speaks. ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #Fed #tariffs #India #Treasury #earnings #tech #Nvidia
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
US equities advanced despite concerns over Fed independence Despite the uncertainty following President Trump’s dismissal of Fed Governor Cook, USTEC advanced slightly. President Trump dismissed Fed Governor Cook due to allegations of mortgage fraud, raising concerns over the Fed's independence. JPMorgan warned the move could set a precedent for politically driven dismissals of other board members. Meanwhile, the August CB Consumer Confidence Index rose to 97.4, indicating a more positive outlook on current conditions. However, 12-month inflation expectations rose from 5.7% to 6.2%, while the share of respondents viewing jobs as plentiful decreased from 29.9% to 29.7%. USTEC has risen above both EMAs, signaling an attempt at a trend reversal. The narrowing distance between EMA21 and EMA78 suggests a potential shift toward bullish momentum. If USTEC holds above both EMAs, the index may gain upward momentum toward the resistance at 23700. Conversely, if USTEC falls back below both EMAs, the index could retreat toward the support at 23300.
ICMARKETS:USTEC
by inkicho_exness
XAU/USD: Gold at Make-or-Break – Will 3400 Hold or Break?Macro & Fundamental Context Gold remains highly influenced by Fed rate expectations: Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole opened the door to possible rate cuts as early as September. This is pressuring the US dollar lower and supporting precious metals, but at the same time, persistently high inflation and strong US macro data (PPI at the highest level since February) maintain a risk of two-way volatility. COT & Sentiment COT Report: Non-Commercials (speculators) remain strongly net long (275k contracts vs 62k short), but in recent weeks we’ve seen a decline of 12,800 longs and an increase of 4,000 shorts → clear signs of profit-taking. Commercials (hedgers) remain heavily net short (316k contracts), consistent with a defensive stance at current resistance levels. Retail Sentiment: 56% short vs 44% long → slightly contrarian, as retail traders tend to sell strength. Seasonality Historically, August is a bullish month for gold (+25–30 avg points over 10/15 years). However, September has one of the worst seasonal performances of the year (-11% over 20y, -29% over 10y). This reinforces the view that late-August rallies could turn into deeper corrections in September. Technical Analysis Daily Chart: Gold is currently testing a key supply zone at 3380–3400, with a bearish reaction already visible. RSI shows relative overbought conditions. Key Levels: Primary Resistance: 3400–3420 (supply + July highs). Intermediate Support: 3280–3300 (demand zone + weekly block). Bearish Target: 3240–3200 (major demand + bullish rejection block). Operational Outlook Base Case (most likely): Rejection from 3400 → retracement towards 3280/3240 → short setups favored with confirmation on H4/H1. Alternative Scenario (less likely but possible): Breakout above 3420 with a weekly close → bullish continuation confirmed → targets at 3480–3520. Risk Management: Extreme caution ahead of Powell’s speech and NFP release, as both could quickly invalidate setups.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by EdgeTradingJourney
3
Gold Watching 3,360 Support as Powell Dovish Tone Weighs on USDHey Traders, in tomorrow's trading session we are monitoring Gold for a buying opportunity around 3,360 zone, Gold (XAUUSD) recently broke above the 3,360 resistance, turning it into an important support level to watch on any pullback. A retracement into this zone could help determine whether the breakout has strength to extend toward higher levels. On the fundamental side, Fed Chair Powell struck a dovish tone, signaling support for a potential September rate cut, citing lower inflation pressures and risks in the labor market. This backdrop keeps USD under pressure and maintains a bullish bias for Gold in the near term. Monitoring price action around 3,360 to assess whether buyers defend this level or if deeper consolidation unfolds. Trade safe, Joe.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by JoeChampion
26
Australian CPI expected to jump, Aussie steadyThe Australian dollar is showing limited movement on Tuesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6482, down 0.01% on the day. The markets are bracing for an acceleration in Australian CPI on Wednesday. The market estimate stands at 2.3% y/y, compared to 1.9% on June which was the lowest level in over three years. The 1.9% gain was below the Reserve Bank of Australia's 2-3% target range and enabled the RBA to lower rates earlier this month. If inflation does rise as expected, it would complicate the central bank's plans to continue lowering rates in order to boost economic growth. The RBA minutes from the August meeting noted that inflation remains a concern with risks to inflation in "both directions". The minutes indicated that members were in agreement that further rate cuts were needed this year but were unclear as to the extent of the easing. Members said that a faster pace of cuts would be appropriate if the labor market softened more quickly than expected or if there were negative developments in the global economy. The minutes said that upcoming rate decisions would be data-dependent. Investors will be keeping a close eye on employment and inflation data, which are the most critical factors for the central bank in determining its rate path. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to lower rates at the September meeting, after holding rates since December 2024. Federal Chair Powell's speech at Jackson Hole essentially confirmed a September cut and the US dollar responded with sharp losses against the major currencies. The key question is whether the Fed will cut again in December - that decision will be heavily influenced by the employment and inflation reports. There is resistance at 0.6524 and 0.6555 0.6469 and 0.6438 are providing support
by OANDA
Fed rate cut timing: September or October? The Jackson Hole Symposium has set the stage for renewed downside pressure on the U.S. dollar, as investors increasingly position for a 25-basis point Fed rate cut in September. However, Morgan Stanley assigns only a 50% probability to such a move, suggesting that a September cut is far from guaranteed. Market focus is also turning to the prospects of a rate cut in October too. The market is assigning only a small chance of two cuts in a row by the Fed. Perhaps Morgan Stanely’s outlook implies the Fed may delay the widely expected September cut until October instead. In practice, the market impact could be similar either way. With a softer dollar and stronger equities if Powell signals in September that easing is on the way the following month.
ECONOMICS:USINTR
by BlackBull Markets
EURUSD Challenges 1.1740-Resistance Amid Rate Cut ExpectationsDXY weakness appears to have priced in a September rate cut, with the 96 support level still technically significant. It aligns with a 17-year trendline, placing attention on whether the dollar can stage a rebound within its dominant bearish structure. Meanwhile, EURUSD remains capped below the 1.18 resistance, which would need to break to open the path toward 2021 highs above 1.20. With the daily RSI holding neutral-to-bullish territory above the 50 level, EURUSD may extend its rally toward 1.1780 and 1.1830 if it clears 1.1740. A confirmed breakout could open the way toward 2021 highs between 1.20 and 1.23. Downside: A pullback below 1.1690 could find support at 1.1670, 1.1640, and 1.1600. A break below 1.16 may trigger deeper losses toward 1.1480 and 1.1380. Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
by FOREX.com
Bubble, No Bubble: Stocks Are So Back After Powell Cranks It UpStretched valuations, talks of froth, and overall market fatigue. That’s what investors were saying for stocks (especially those AI plays) up until Powell brought up the vibe that rekindled the animal spirits. Let’s talk about that. 📈 Powell Drops the Mic Markets started last week exhausted. The S&P 500 SP:SPX was wobbling, the Nasdaq NASDAQ:IXIC was shedding like your beautiful ragdoll cat, and traders were probably looking up vacation getaways instead of technical patterns. But then on Friday we all came together to hear one man speak . It was the same neutral, laid back tone, but this one time something was different. As if… a bolder man was on the stage, unafraid to crank it up. Or was it more of an elderly man finally giving the kids what they wanted? In his speech at Jackson Hole, Fed boss Jay Powell acknowledged what markets had been hoping to hear: “The risk of rising prices has diminished.” Translation? The Fed finally sees inflation cooling down. And the labor market might need some help, too. That was all it took. Risk appetite flipped, sending equities way higher into Friday’s close (even though Monday's futures dipped a bit ). The S&P 500 SP:SPX booked a solid 1.5% pop, the Dow Jones TVC:DJI surged 1.9% to a fresh all-time high, and the Nasdaq NASDAQ:IXIC managed to erase much of its weekly losses after a strong 2% increase. Powell didn’t cut rates yet — he just gave markets a few reasons to believe cuts are coming. 🚧 The Job Market Pivot Before Powell spoke, traders were bracing for maybe one rate cut this year, if any. Sticky inflation had the Fed cornered. But Powell flipped the narrative, shifting attention to the labor market instead. The US unemployment rate has climbed nearly a full percentage point over the past year, and job growth is slowing fast, averaging just 35,000 new positions per month over the past three months. Even worse, revisions stripped 258,000 jobs from May and June’s data. For traders, this was the lightbulb moment: a weakening labor market gives Powell the green light to pivot. 🔥 Inflation Still Isn’t Dead Here’s the awkward part: while Powell’s tone eased market fears, the inflation problem hasn’t magically vanished. Core CPI is still running 3% year-over-year, well above the Fed’s 2% target, even as the headline CPI ECONOMICS:USCPI stood at 2.7% for July . Meanwhile, wholesale prices ECONOMICS:USPPI — often a precursor to consumer price trends — surged 0.9% last month , marking their fastest monthly jump in three years. Powell is walking a tightrope: move too quickly on cuts, and inflation could flare up again; wait too long, and the job market weakens further. The stakes are high, and the balance fragile. 🎈 Bubble Talk, Again Every time stocks rip higher, the “bubble” debate resurfaces. And honestly? It’s hard to ignore it this time. AI stocks are priced like they’ve already rewired how the world works, and the Nasdaq’s relentless rally looks almost too clean. But here’s a reality check. We’ve never had a big market crisis for the past 16 years. March 2020? Recovered in a few months. April’s mini-crash? Erased in weeks. Markets seem determined to brush off every scare and buy the dip. Powell’s pivot only reinforced that attitude: traders don’t care about stretched valuations if the Fed is hinting at cheaper money ahead. 🤖 Nvidia’s Market, Nvidia’s Rules That’s how we move forward to what’s next. Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA drops earnings on August 27 ( Earnings Calendar for reference). And because this is Nvidia’s market and we all live in it, expectations are sky-high. Analysts are projecting just under $46 billion in revenue and $1 per share in earnings . But the real focus? Forward guidance. If Nvidia signals a blockbuster Q3 — something in the ballpark of $54 billion in sales — it could keep fueling the AI mania and push the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 to fresh highs. But if the numbers disappoint, this entire rally could wobble. Considering Nvidia has added more than $3 trillion in market cap since 2023, it’s no exaggeration to say the stock’s earnings could set the tone for everything else. 🦁 Animal Spirits Are Back Powell’s softer tone and the Nvidia hype machine have combined to reawaken animal spirits across Wall Street. That makes for a good example on how you can shift from doom-posting about stagflation to refreshing the ATH charts in less than 48 hours. The S&P and the Dow are at or near record highs, the Nasdaq is eyeing another breakout. What’s not to like? The rally isn’t bulletproof. It’s being driven as much by vibes as fundamentals right now. Rate cuts haven’t happened yet, the labor market is fragile, and inflation hasn’t fully cooled. The market appears to be trading on optimism — and optimism can turn fast. 🏁 The Bottom Line Jerome Powell didn’t announce a rate cut, but he did something almost better: he opened the door a bit wider. By acknowledging softer labor data and reduced inflation risks, he revived traders’ appetite and gave permission to believe the rally has legs. But this story has two big hinges: Nvidia has to deliver, and inflation has to behave. One earnings miss or a hot CPI print, and this animal spirit revival could fade as quickly as it started. Off to you : Are you long and excited about the outlook? Or you’re in the bear camp and looking for your chance to short this market? Share your views in the comments!
SP:SPX
by TradingView
15
Gold Prices Overview of Primary Catalyst : September 2025⚡️ Gold: Consolidation Before the Next Move Gold set fresh records earlier this year and now sits in a tight post–Jackson Hole range around $3,360–$3,380/oz as rate-cut odds jumped and the dollar eased back. Spot was ~$3,368 this morning, slightly off Friday’s spike after Powell opened the door to a September cut. ________________________________________ 1) Fed Path & Real Yields — 9.5/10 (Bullish for gold) Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks highlighted rising labor-market risks and explicitly “opened the door” to a September cut. Futures now price a high probability of an initial -25 bps move with more to follow into year-end. Lower policy rates/real yields remain the single strongest tailwind for non-yielding gold. 2) U.S. Dollar Trend — 7.5/10 (Bullish for gold) The DXY slipped toward the high-97s after Powell’s dovish tilt and remains soft versus recent peaks, reducing a key headwind to non-USD buyers. If the dollar rebound stalls, gold’s upside path stays cleaner. 3) Central-Bank Buying / De-Dollarization — 8.5/10 (Bullish) Official-sector demand stays structurally strong. Global central banks remain on track for another ~1,000t year, with China’s PBoC extending purchases for a ninth straight month. This “sticky” bid continues to underwrite dips. 4) Trade/Tariff Shock (incl. U.S. tariffs on bullion) — 8.0/10 (Bullish) The broad U.S. tariff regime (10% baseline, higher on targeted goods) is inflationary at the margin; crucially, imports of 1kg/100oz gold bars were swept into the rules, temporarily snarling Swiss shipments and roiling COMEX/LBMA logistics until guidance is clarified. Result: fatter location/financing premia and periodic price dislocations that tend to support spot. 5) ETF & Institutional Flows — 7.5/10 (Bullish) After years of outflows, ETF inflows in the first half of 2025 were the strongest in 5 years (~$38B; +397t), with July showing further additions. GLD holdings are back near ~957t. Continued inflows amplify macro moves. 6) Systematic/CTA & Positioning Dynamics — 6.5/10 (Mixed → Volatility) CTAs and options flow are magnifying swings around key levels ($3,350–$3,420). Upside call demand is persistent, meaning whipsaws remain likely as trend-following systems react to dollar/yield shifts. 7) China Property & Growth Stress — 6.0/10 (Bullish) The Evergrande delisting and deepening Country Garden losses underscore a property slump that keeps risk appetite in check and supports defensive assets. Weak housing drags on jewelry demand but typically supports investment demand for bullion. 8) U.S. Fiscal Risk & Credit Quality — 6.0/10 (Bullish) The May downgrade of U.S. sovereign credit and ongoing wide deficits keep a slow-burn bid under gold. Any wobble in auctions or debt-ceiling theatrics would push this higher. 9) Jewelry & Tech Demand — 5.0/10 (Slightly Bearish/neutral short-term) Record prices hit Q2 jewelry volumes (-14% y/y to 341t), though India shows early signs of seasonal revival into festivals. Tech demand dipped ~2% y/y amid electronics softness. Physical demand is a brake on parabolic rallies. 10) Geopolitics (Ukraine, Middle East, Taiwan risk, etc.) — 5.5/10 (Event-Bullish) Headlines remain volatile—Israeli strikes on Iran-aligned Houthis and ongoing Ukraine politics keep a latent safe-haven premium. Spikes are event-driven unless escalation persists. ________________________________________ 🌐 Other Catalysts to Watch • Crypto Cross-Flows (5/10): Sharp crypto drawdowns can funnel short-term interest into gold, though correlation remains inconsistent. • Bullion Logistics & Refining (New): U.S. tariff ambiguity on kilobars introduces intermittent premiums and arbitrage opportunities between Zurich–London–NY. • Physical Supply Disruptions (4/10): Always idiosyncratic; currently secondary to macro. | Rank | Catalyst | Score/10 | Current Impact | Direction | Notes | | ---- | ------------------------------------------ | -------: | -------------- | ------------------------------ | ------------------------------------------------------------ | | 1 | Fed path & real yields | **9.5** | Very High | **Bullish** | Dovish tilt; cuts now live for Sept. | | 2 | Central-bank buying | **8.5** | High | **Bullish** | Ongoing official demand; PBoC keeps adding. | | 3 | Trade/tariff shock (incl. bullion tariffs) | **8.0** | High | **Bullish** | Broad tariffs + bullion rules raise premia & inflation risk. | | 4 | U.S. dollar trend | **7.5** | High | **Bullish** | DXY softer post-Jackson Hole; less drag on gold. | | 5 | ETF/institutional flows | **7.5** | High | **Bullish** | Biggest inflows in 5 yrs; GLD holdings high. | | 6 | Systematic/CTA flows | **6.5** | Moderate | **Mixed** | Options/CTA activity driving overshoots both ways. | | 7 | China property stress | **6.0** | Moderate | **Bullish** | Structural drag supports safe-haven demand. | | 8 | U.S. fiscal/credit risk | **6.0** | Moderate | **Bullish** | Downgrade + deficits maintain hedge demand. | | 9 | Jewelry/tech demand | **5.0** | Low | **Neutral → Slightly Bearish** | Jewelry volumes fell 14% y/y; festivals could revive. | | 10 | Geopolitics (broad) | **5.5** | Low–Mod | **Bullish (event-driven)** | Episodic; not the primary driver now. |
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ProjectSyndicate
35
Bitcoin back at 112k: Bullish Illusion or Bearish Truth?1. What happened lately In my previous BTC analysis, I mentioned that as long as the 110k zone holds, the bullish structure technically remains intact. On Friday, Powell’s speech lifted the market precisely from that zone, as the possibility of rate cuts injected optimism across risk assets, including crypto. 2. The psychological trap But here’s the question I keep asking myself: is this genuine strength, or just wishful thinking? I’ve said it many times — trade what you see, not what you hope for . And what the charts are showing right now is not as promising as the initial bounce might suggest. 3. Technical signals - BTC quickly returned to the 112k support level, erasing the Friday rally. - Price remains under the trendline that started in April. - The bounce looks more like a retest of broken levels than a new impulsive leg. - Structurally, we can even identify a head and shoulders pattern with the neckline around the 110k zone, although not perfectly shaped. 4. Reading between the lines It’s hard for me to believe that Bitcoin came back to the same support just to give latecomers another easy buying opportunity. More likely, the “rate cut euphoria” was dead cat bounce, and the market is telling us something different than the headlines. 5. Conclusion At this moment, I remain neutral in my positioning but leaning bearish in my outlook. Optimism is tempting, but discipline requires us to trust the charts, not our hopes. And... if it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck… it’s probably a duck. 🦆
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Mihai_Iacob
7
USD/CAD: The Perfect Storm for a Bullish BreakoutUSD/CAD is consolidating above 1.3850 after a strong bullish impulse. The technical structure shows: A breakout from the summer bullish channel projecting towards 1.3950–1.4050, a key weekly resistance zone. RSI remains neutral but strengthening, with no signs of immediate overextension. Institutional demand around 1.3700 firmly rejected the downside, signaling strong long accumulation. 📌 Key levels: Support at 1.3750 / 1.3700 – Resistance at 1.3950 / 1.4050. Commitments of Traders (COT) USD Index: Non-commercial longs increasing (+1,330) with a slight reduction in shorts. Moderately bullish bias for USD. CAD Futures: Significant increase in non-commercial shorts (+7,966) while longs decline (-2,691). Institutions are clearly selling CAD. 📌 This reinforces the bullish bias on USD/CAD, with speculative positioning strongly in favor of the US Dollar. Seasonality (August–September) Historically, August tends to be neutral/slightly bearish for USD/CAD, but September shows a strong bullish pattern, with consistent positive averages over the last 10–20 years. 📌 This supports a continuation of the bullish trend in the coming weeks, especially towards the 1.40+ area. Retail Sentiment 78% of retail traders are short on USD/CAD, with an average entry price at 1.3780. Only 22% are positioned long. 📌 Classic contrarian signal: excessive retail bearishness increases the probability of further upside. ✅ Trading Outlook The overall picture shows alignment across technicals, COT, seasonality, and sentiment. USD/CAD maintains a bullish bias: Primary scenario: Extension towards 1.3950 and then 1.4050, a major weekly supply zone. Alternative scenario: Controlled pullback to 1.3800–1.3750 before resuming higher. Invalidation: Daily close below 1.3700 would open space towards 1.3550. 📌 Bias: Long USD/CAD towards 1.3950–1.4050.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
8
Silver Roadmap: Key Supply at 38.8 or a Breakout to 39.6?Price is consolidating around 38.0, after recovering from July’s breakdown, currently sitting just below the weekly supply/resistance zone at 38.3–38.8, with liquidity resting above 39.2–39.6. The nearest and strongest daily demand lies at 36.6–35.5 (origin of the prior impulse and multi-touch base). Momentum/RSI on the daily chart is neutral (not overbought), with the latest rally built on shallow pullbacks → a favorable context for potential “stop-hunts” above supply before the market makes a decision. COT (Aug 12): Non-commercials remain net long but have been trimming positions (longs ↓, shorts ↑), while commercials stay net short → bullish positioning is cooling, often a precursor to range-bound or corrective phases. Retail sentiment: roughly 52% short / 48% long, not at extremes → no strong contrarian signal. Seasonality: August tends to be slightly bullish for silver on 10–20 year averages, while September is historically negative → current tailwind may turn into a headwind ahead. 🔎 Bias: Neutral with a bearish tilt at 38.3–38.8, unless a breakout is confirmed; elevated risk of false breaks toward 39.3–39.6 before potential downside rotation. Key catalysts to watch: DXY and real yields (inverse correlation), gold performance, US macro releases (CPI, ISM, NFP), and Chinese data (PMIs/industrial growth). A stronger USD or rising yields would favor the bearish case from 38.8, while a weaker USD combined with a gold breakout would increase the odds of a liquidity sweep toward 39.6.
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by EdgeTradingJourney
2
EUR/CHF: The Trap Is Set!EUR/CHF Full Analysis 1. Seasonality EUR: Historically weak in August–September. The 20y and 15y datasets confirm a negative seasonal bias in September. CHF: Stronger tendency in August–September, historically supported as a safe-haven currency, with September statistically positive. 👉 Seasonal bias: short EUR/CHF (weak EUR vs strong CHF). 2. Retail Sentiment 55% of retail traders are long EUR/CHF, while 45% are short. 👉 Slight long retail positioning = contrarian bearish signal. 3. COT Report (19 August 2025) Euro: Non-commercial net long at 252k vs 133k short (+6.4k new longs, +3.1k new shorts). Still bullish momentum, but slowing down as commercials are selling. CHF: Non-commercial net short (6k longs vs 33k shorts). Strong bearish imbalance, but commercials are long CHF (hedging), reinforcing CHF’s safe-haven status in case of risk-off correction. 👉 COT shows overweight Euro longs and heavy CHF shorts, raising risk of a future reversal in favor of CHF. 4. Technicals Structure: Clear rejection from weekly supply zone 0.9435–0.9450 with a bearish engulfing. Daily RSI cooling after strong impulse → room for further downside. Possible pullback toward 0.9415–0.9425 (Fib 0.62–0.705) before continuation lower. Technical targets: 0.9330–0.9315 (daily demand zone), extended to 0.9260. Invalidation: Weekly close above 0.9450. 📌 Conclusion: Seasonality, retail sentiment, and price action align for a bearish EUR/CHF bias. The COT highlights an overcrowded long Euro vs short CHF positioning, opening space for a structural rebound of the Swiss Franc. Technicals confirm: wait for a pullback to 0.9420 to short, targeting 0.9330/0.9260.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
EURUSD Breakdown or Double Bottom? Catalysts at Jackson Hole!EURUSD has broken below the key 1.16 support ahead of the Jackson Hole Symposium, raising the stakes for both bulls and bears as markets become more aware of the likelihood of a hawkish stance. But will it be the case? Let's see what the possible scenarios are at play. Bearish Catalysts : Hawkish Fed Signals: Recent FOMC minutes and a potential hawkish tone from Chair Powell could push EURUSD lower. Rate cut odds for December have dropped sharply, and further Fed focus on inflation may accelerate downside. Technical Breakdown: The loss of 1.16 opens the door to 1.1530, 1.1460, and possibly 1.14. No clear bullish divergence on RSI suggests more downside risk. Geopolitical Risks: Uncertainty around the Ukraine ceasefire could weigh further on the euro. Bullish Catalysts : Oversold Conditions: EURUSD is approaching oversold territory, with a potential double bottom forming near 1.1530/1.1460. Dovish Surprise: If Powell signals concerns over the labour market or hints at a pause, a short-covering rally could target 1.16 and above. ECB Commentary: Any unexpected hawkishness from ECB President Lagarde could support the euro. Key Levels to Watch : Support: 1.1530, 1.1460, 1.1400 Resistance: 1.1600, 1.1660 Trading Plan : Volatility is likely post-symposium. Bears may look for breakdowns and rallies to resistance for entries, while bulls might watch for reversal signals at key supports if the Fed surprises dovishly. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Short
by ThinkMarkets
3
XAUUSD – The Calm Before the Storm (D1 Weekly Plan)🔥 Market Pulse Last week closed with a powerful bullish D1 candle, fueled by FED’s policy hints & Trump’s latest remarks. This wasn’t just news-driven – it was a liquidity shift, a signal that the next big directional play is loading. ⚔️ Key Battle Zones (MMFLOW View) End Game Demand Zone (3273) → The last stronghold for buyers. Power Reaction Zone (3316 – 3340) → First defense line where bulls are likely to step in hard. Key Mid Zone (3357 – 3372) → The “gateway” level that decides if momentum will sustain. Power Reaction Zone (3399) → Bears will strike back here. End Game Supply Zone (3435) → The final battlefield – where the big game ends. 📈 Scenarios for the Week Ahead Primary Plan (Bullish bias): Gold may dip into 3316 – 3340 before resuming its upward leg. Holding this zone opens the path to 3399 → 3435. Alternative Plan (Risk case): A break below 3316 could drag price back to 3273 before any bigger move. 🎯 Trading Approach Buy on dips inside reaction zones. Targets: 3399 – 3435. Protective stop: Below 3273. 🚨 Final Takeaway: Gold is entering a critical phase – this isn’t just another bounce, it could be the start of a medium-term breakout cycle. Bulls have the upper hand, but both sides are preparing for the showdown. Stay ready for a volatility spike.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading
2
Powell Delivers at Jackson Hole - NVDA and PCE Up NextNearly a 200% ATR move today in the S&P SPY didn't close beyond all-time highs QQQ didn't close beyond all-time highs DIA did close above all-time highs IWM continues its strong rally for August I'm noticing some serious rotation into small cap, mid cap, and seeing the markets allocate outside of Mag7, Tech, and AI Powell all but guaranteed a September rate cut and the market loved it - yet prices aren't necessarily higher (yet). I still think the Aug-Oct window is ripe for a small correction and pullback to offer up better positioning for end of year NVDA Earnings next week Wednesday US PCE and Core PCE Friday to close out the month I'm curious if the SPX 6500 resistance level will continue to hold firm - let's see Thanks for watching!!!
TVC:US10YLong
by ChrisPulver
XAUUSD – US Session Weekly Close Update - FED NEWS📰 Macro Outlook The Federal Reserve remains firm on its 2% inflation target while keeping unemployment low. The US labor market is showing signs of weakness: job supply stagnates, demand falls → higher unemployment risk. New tariffs could push inflation higher while also slowing down economic growth. Fed gradually moves away from FAIT, focusing back on a strict 2% inflation goal. Powell didn’t promise rate cuts, but hinted at possible policy easing in September if economic conditions align. 🔑 Key Technical Levels Buy Retest Zone: 3343 – 3345 Mid-term Resistance: 3377 – 3380 Target Buy Zone: 3396 – 3400 ✅ Primary Scenario (Bullish Bias) After a strong breakout from the downtrend, price is likely to retest 3343 – 3345 to build momentum. Holding above this zone opens the path to 3377 and potentially 3396 – 3400. 🔻 Alternative Scenario A clean break below 3340 with an H1 close could push price lower toward 3325 – 3320 before a possible recovery. 🎯 Trading Plan for the US Session BUY on retest 3343 – 3345 SL: below 3338 TP: 3377 → 3396 → 3400 Short-term SELL only if strong rejection appears around 3396 – 3400. ⚡ As liquidity thins out toward the weekend, it’s safer to follow the bullish momentum, scale positions wisely, and avoid chasing price near key resistances.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading
What Traders Should Expect from Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech?Today, all focus is on Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, where traders will look for hints about the future direction of monetary policy. The Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium has often marked major policy framework shifts and signals of immediate policy changes. Today it may be no different, with one key factor in the background: the heavy pressure on the independence of the Federal Reserve. From the 2008 financial crisis to the Covid-19 shock, US core inflation remained subdued, well below the 2% target, despite ultra-low rates and massive quantitative easing. The average core PCE over this period was 1.52%, with only a few months above 2% in the entire 12-year span. With Covid, that low-inflation era came to an end. Supply chain bottlenecks, changes in consumer behavior, enormous government spending to counter the slowdown, labor market imbalances, energy shocks from the Ukraine–Russia war, and more QE all combined to create the biggest global inflation surge in decades for an average of 3.43% for US. In the US, the divergence was sharper due to much larger fiscal spending under both Trump and Biden. The economy recovered more quickly, but inflation proved stickier. As inflation falling towards 2%, tariff effects then stalled the disinflation process. After Covid, the Federal Reserve changed its framework and introduced FAIT (Flexible Average Inflation Targeting). Under FAIT, the Fed no longer forced inflation back to 2% quickly but allowed overshooting to compensate for the 2008–2020 period of below-target inflation, giving more weight to fixing labor market problems. However, as seen in the data, the 3.43% average core inflation of the past five years risks unsettling long-term inflation expectations and increasing the chance that higher inflation becomes anchored. What is Expected in Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech? Powell has been working on policy framework changes for some time and looking at the last two years of Fed decisions, the central bank has already started to move away from FAIT. Today, Powell is expected to revert from FAIT back to the previous standard of flexible inflation targeting. This would signal greater emphasis on price stability, unless the labor market suffers a sharp downturn. Powell may also announce steps to improve transparency. Markets might initially see this shift away from FAIT as hawkish, but in reality the Fed has already been moving in that direction for some time, at least in its decisions if not its language. Much of the market impact may already be priced in. As for short-term policy, the September meeting will be crucial. Just days ago, markets were considering the possibility of a surprise 50-basis-point cut. After hot inflation data and strong PMI readings, even a 25-basis-point cut is priced at only 73%. If not for large payrolls revisions, the chance of a cut would be far lower, but the revisions have changed the outlook. Still, key data is due before September, including PCE, CPI, and the payrolls report. Powell may avoid giving a clear signal today and instead keep the option of a September cut open if conditions warrant. How Might Markets React to Powell? Reverting from FAIT is inherently hawkish, but markets may have priced in some of the effect already. Still, it remains broadly dollar-positive. The key will be how seriously Powell addresses weakness in the jobs market. If he does not see labor conditions as deteriorating meaningfully, the Fed has little reason to cut rates while both goods and services inflation are still picking up, even though shelter inflation is easing. If markets interpret Powell’s view on jobs and the framework change as not hawkish enough, profit-taking among dollar bulls could emerge. However, if Powell signals that recent job weakness is just one or two data points and the Fed remains in a good place, the message would be that no urgent changes are needed and it will be dollar positive.
TVC:DXY
by ftdsystem