- The Nasdaq 100 index declined 2.60% last week, yet closed above the 14,000 major weekly support. - Ahead of the Fed, quarterly bond sales plan and Apple's earnings; the mentioned support (represented in both: the 50-EMA and the downward channel's lower boundary) would play an important role in deciding the market's path on the short/medium-term. - The...
Overnight, Fed Chair Jerome Powell surprised markets with his comments that "the bigger mistake remains not getting rates high enough" and that "the US economy has been stronger than expected". These hawkish comments spurred market anticipation that the Fed is not done with the current rate hike cycle, lead to a sharp increase in the DXY. The DXY broke out of...
CME: E-Mini S&P 500 Options ( CME_MINI:ES1! ) Last Wednesday, investors cheered as the Fed kept interest rates unchanged for the second time in a row. On Friday, a soft jobs report backed up market expectations that the rate-hiking campaign is over. For the full week, the Dow was up by 5.07% in its best week since October 2022. The S&P was higher by 5.85% and the...
By re-examining the gold chart in the 12-hour time frame, we see that the price, after its growth to $2007, faced correction and was able to fall to the first downward target, $1977! After that, considering that the price was in the support range, it was accompanied by renewed demand pressure and was able to grow up to $1988! As I mentioned in the previous...
Has the market adopted the term “hawkish pause” to bolster USD bids? It could be possible that, in an attempt to drag out USD strength just a little bit longer (euro has weakened –4.20% in past 6 months), the term Hawkish Pause has been thrown around with not-enough criticism. Not many people have confidence in the US Fed to really make the hard decisions...
So, what's the best way to play FOMC? Probably a strangle. According to last FOMC on 9/20 your NASDAQ:QQQ calls would have printed around +50% or more. Assuming you sold and held your puts, your puts would have given you an extra 200% to 300%. You can do this on any stock obviously. Don't get greedy. Best decision might be to stay out of course. Choosing a...
Inverse chart of US10Y Yield to show changes in Bond prices. Overlayed with the following: Fed Funds Rate US Treasury Deposits to Federal Reserve Banks Increase/Decrease Rate of change to Fed Balance Sheet Balance Sheet Total in separate pane below The USCBBS Percentage Change shows the money raining down :-D It's clear to see the relationship between the...
The XAU/USD currency pair, a dynamic interplay between gold and the US dollar, is currently navigating through pronounced market fluctuations. In this comprehensive analysis, we will delve into the intricate interplay of fundamental factors steering the value of XAU/USD. Our focus extends to the looming potential of The Federal Reserve's interest rate adjustments,...
Today we have J.Powell speech! Market should be volatile so much. Focus on that level which is I draw on!
S&P index is going to test 4170.75$ level this month, it’s now going down to this level. We will wait after testing this level to detect price moves.
It has been a big week of central bank policy announcements. While central banks in the US, UK, Switzerland, and Japan left key policy rates unchanged, the trajectory ahead remains vastly different. These central bank announcements were accompanied by a significant upward breakout in bond yields. Interestingly most of the increase in yields has been driven by...
Hello! I see SP500 has formed some bottom on 12H timeframe and closed beyond previous 12H High Point. Bulls are gaining more strength in this market, that has seen 3 weeks of countinious decline. It looks just about to swing higher. Taking into consideration that previous weeks NFP data came out much stronger then forecast, about 330k new payrolls added to the...
Happy Spooky Season boys and girls! Here is just a mock up of how I have been navigating Bitcoin. I am currently short term bullish and possibly long term bullish due to the season and recent price action across major indexes, commodities, the dollar, and Treasury yields. However that is remain to be seen and I will adjust my theses when necessary. Cool side...
As much as we try not to repeat ideas here, occasionally, an opportunity emerges to harp on the same point. As we have previously laid out the bear case for the S&P 500 from a historical volatility behavior perspective, this week we will zoom in on other metrics showing why we think the S&P may struggle from here. The first and most interesting measure,...
At the start of 2023, our key assumption was that bullish trends would dominate the market this year despite the challenging global macroeconomic conditions following the post-COVID-19 era. Our prediction proved accurate, as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust has already surged by over 10%, despite the ongoing high hydrocarbon prices. Bears have been trying to regain...
CME: Micro Russell 2000 ( CME_MINI:M2K1! ) Global financial market orbits around Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions. By concept, hiking interest rates means monetary tightening while cutting them signals easing. In reality, market perception to the Fed actions evolves over time, sometimes blurring the difference between “good news” and “bad news”. • On May...
Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Snapshot - Between the 11 - 18th Sept 2023 we had the Largest one week decline of approx. $74.7 billion since the balance sheet reduction started in April 2022 - We are currently approx. $50 billion away from a 1 trillion reduction 👀 We are in for an interesting Quarter end to the 2023 year, that is to say the least....