Get started

Fundamental Analysis

#BTCUSDT(BITCOIN): Swing Buy, Price Heading Towards Previous HH!Bitcoin is nearing a previous high of 126K. As of the latest data, it trades around 112K, with a 24-hour volume of $38 billion and a market capitalisation of $2.1 trillion. However, before reaching that level, it’s likely to correct towards our entry zone between 108K and 110K. This level is significant because we anticipate a substantial increase in market volume. Historical data shows that similar corrections have led to a 15–20% increase in trading activity. On-chain metrics indicate a 7% rise in active wallets over the past week, and institutional inflows totalled approximately $1.3 billion in the last seven days. The Bitcoin dominance index currently sits at 54%, suggesting continued interest despite broader market fluctuations. This short-term view allows us to observe the price accumulating and on the verge of distribution. Based on your trading style, you can select one of three targets: - Target 1: 118K (conservative) - Target 2: 122K (moderate) - Target 3: 126K (aggressive) We wish you the best of luck and trade safely. If you find our work helpful, please like and comment on our ideas. Team Setupsfx_
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Setupsfx_
15
S&P 500 Index Showing Weakness – Correction Ahead?Over the past seven days, the S&P 500 index( SP:SPX ) has been on a bullish run, frequently hitting new all-time highs. However, in the last two or three weeks, it's been influenced by the ongoing tariff tensions between the U.S. and China . Let's look at the latest news about the S&P 500 index : The IMF has flagged that market valuations might be a bit high, hinting at possible corrections. Plus, there's been a fresh look at how well China’s sticking to the 2020 trade deal, and on top of that, a new trade agreement in Southeast Asia is in the mix. So that’s the quick rundown! Right now, if we look at the S&P 500 on a 1-hour timeframe, the index is near its Resistance lines and has lost its uptrend line , which is a sign of weakening momentum . We also saw a Shooting Star Candlestick pattern form in the last few hours with good volume, adding credibility to the potential for a pullback . From an Elliott Wave standpoint, it seems the S&P 500 has completed its wave 3, and we might see a wave 4 correction in the coming hours or days. There's a noticeable Negative Regular Divergence(RD-) between the recent tops , and even on the daily timeframe, there's a divergence signaling potential weakness. I expect the S&P 500 could drop at least to its Support line , around the $6,857 . Note: The cryptocurrency market, and especially Bitcoin , has been highly correlated with the S&P 500 index these weeks, and a possible correction in this index could lead to a correction in this market. Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. S&P 500 Index Analyze (SPX500USD), 1-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like'✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by pejman_zwin
18
FTK is clearing a Cup with Handle baseKey points at the time of writing. ✣ Market Cycle : Bull market cycle since June 2025 Direction: Up 100% ✣ Fundamentals. Earnings somewhat mixed with a tendency to improve this year. Institutional ratio is of 3.8 Buyers for 1 seller TTM with a ownership of 10.9% ✣ Technicals. Clearing a Cup with Handle pattern. Stock at base 4 is recent rally TTM Performance is xx% ✣ Events / News Earnings due next week ! Despite not being CANSLIM qualified it's clearing current base 4 ahead of earnings next week! I expect a rise in price if there is some follow through in the coming days and most important if next week earning confirm the recent trend.
NYSE:FTKLong
by AL26
Soybeans Surge on Thin Ice: Lessons from 2019Soybean prices have surged nearly 8% in two weeks, driven by renewed US-China trade tensions. While this looks like a familiar, event-driven rally, the fundamentals tell a different story. Conflicting Weak Fundamentals China has not purchased any US soybeans for the 2025/26 marketing year. In 2024/25, Chinese buying stalled after May. That’s unusual given that the prior year saw over 500,000 tons of late-season sales. The slowdown dropped China’s share of total US soybean commitments to 45% from 55%, the lowest since 2018. Source – Reuters That matters because 2018 marked the last time soybeans became a trade weapon. Back then, US soybean exports fell 18% from 2017/18 to 2018/19 despite record production. Exports recovered briefly in 2020-21 but have since declined again. If history rhymes, the 2025 conflict could have longer-term consequences for US producers and exporters. The puzzle is that prices have climbed despite worsening fundamentals. Futures rose after the latest escalation, hinting that traders may be pricing in an eventual resolution. If tensions ease before the seasonal export peak over the next two months, demand could lift prices further. If not, the current rally may prove unsustainable. The key uncertainty lies in timing - whether a diplomatic thaw comes soon enough to coincide with US export strength. Source – Kansas City Fed Performance and Parallels with 2019 The structure of this year’s rally mirrors the 2019 pattern. Then, too, optimism around US-China negotiations drove soybean futures higher. On 13 December 2019, as the Phase-One trade deal was announced, CBOT soybean futures rallied about 9.8% for the month. That uptrend persisted until the onset of COVID-19, which derailed demand and disrupted logistics, preventing the expected rebound in US exports. The technical setup also echoes that period. In both 2019 and 2025, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) crossed into overbought territory above 70-a rare signal under normal conditions. Between 2020 and 2022, RSI readings were inflated by one-off global shocks. In contrast, the 2019 and 2025 spikes both stem from optimism around de-escalation, underscoring how trade détente tends to trigger strong momentum buying. Today, market sentiment again hinges on reports that China may resume US soybean purchases. Investors are reacting to statements and commentary including remarks from industry figures suggesting Beijing could pivot back toward US supply as signs that tariffs or import restrictions may soften. If these expectations materialize, the rally could extend into early 2026, though the fundamental picture remains weak. Historical Trade Example To illustrate how optimism-driven price spikes have historically translated into trade outcomes, consider the 2019 example. A trader buying one CBOT soybean futures contract (5,000 bushels) at $8.70 per bushel in early December and exiting at $9.50 in early January would have captured a 9% gain. Entry: 870 cents/bushel Exit: 950 cents/bushel Profit/Loss: 80 cents/bushel = USD 0.8/bushel Each contract of Soybean futures provides exposure to 5000 bushels: Profit/Loss per Contract = 0.8 x 5000 = USD 4,000 Traders can express the same view using CME Micro Soybean Futures, which provide exposure to one-tenth of the standard contract’s notional value and require lower margin. The 2025 setup resembles that pattern. If de-escalation signs strengthen into year-end, a similar short-term momentum trade could play out. However, if diplomatic talks stall or China delays purchases, prices could quickly retrace. The recent rally has also occurred on low trading volume, with limited activity during the upward move and higher volume concentrated near resistance levels. Additionally, the price action around these resistance levels shows long wicks, suggesting a failed breakout and indicating weak momentum. In essence, this rally is speculative optimism priced into a weak fundamental base. For traders, it is a short-duration opportunity with defined risk: the thesis hinges on improved trade headlines within the next two months. For producers and longer-term investors, the focus should remain on export commitments and Chinese buying patterns rather than short-lived technical surges. History suggests that while geopolitical relief rallies can deliver sharp gains, they often fade once the narrative loses momentum. The 2025 soybean rally may yet prove another example of that cycle - strong on hope, but fragile on fundamentals. This content is sponsored. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CBOT:ZS1!Short
by mintdotfinance
GBPUSD Extends Bearish Momentum After Structure BreakGBPUSD remains under bearish pressure after a clear break of the structure from the 1H resistance area. Price action shows a potential short-term retest before continuing lower toward the support zone, signaling sellers’ dominance in the market. Key Levels: Sell Entry: 1.3195 Take Profit: 1.3129 Stop Loss: 1.3242 Reasoning: Technically, the pair has confirmed a downside structure break with consistent lower highs, indicating momentum in favor of sellers. The 1H chart shows price rejecting the resistance area and forming a bearish continuation setup. Fundamentally, the British Pound remains weak amid concerns over slowing UK growth and firm U.S. dollar demand supported by steady Treasury yields and hawkish Federal Reserve outlook. This continues to weigh on GBP/USD sentiment. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always manage risk and follow your own trading plan before executing any trade.
Short
by SwingTrade_Concept
Ethereum Moves with The Business Cycle and Small Cap StocksThere's still hope for Ethereum and Altcoins into 2026 Why Altcoins Never Caught the Bull: The Missing Piece in the Crypto Cycle Bitcoin, gold, and the S&P 500 (SPY) have long proven their close relationship with M2 money supply — when liquidity expands, they rise. But Ethereum and the broader altcoin market play by a slightly different rulebook. They don’t just need liquidity… they need optimism. Specifically, expanding small-cap stocks and a strong business sentiment environment. Higher-risk assets — from growth stocks to altcoins — thrive when the economy believes in itself. And throughout this entire crypto cycle, that optimism never fully materialized. Despite strong narratives, legal wins, and technological progress, altcoin expansions never sustained. Why? Because the business cycle is the true king of risk-taking. 🧭 Where to Watch: IWM & PMI Two of the best gauges for this optimism are: IWM (Russell 2000) – tracks small-cap stocks and risk appetite ISM PMI – measures manufacturing activity and future order expectations When the PMI is above 52, the economy is in expansion mode — and that’s historically when IWM hits new highs. Interestingly, Ethereum has mirrored IWM’s trend, even showing outperformance when IWM pushes into all-time highs. That means ETH’s bullish potential could be closely tied to the next leg of small-cap and business expansion. 💡 The Takeaway In the past, money supply (M2) and business optimism rose together. Now, they’ve decoupled — giving us a clearer way to separate which catalyst drives which asset. So, the big question: 👉 If business sentiment improves in 2026… does Ethereum finally get its real bull run? Only time — and the next PMI reading — will tell.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by SnarkyPuppy
1
XAUUSD - High-Risk Scalp Setup Near Key Support Gold is testing a defined technical buy zone on the chart, presenting a potential long scalp opportunity. Key Considerations: · Strategy: Aggressive, fast scalp targeting a bounce from this support level. · Risk Factors: High sensitivity to geopolitical headlines (noted: Trump). Today is Friday, increasing volatility and potential for unpredictable price action. · Risk Management: A break and close below this immediate support zone would invalidate the bullish scalp thesis. Trade with caution and strict risk controls
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Myshare_finance1
EUR/JPY could be heading to 180 nextBoth the BoJ and ECB kept their policies unchanged on Thursday, with the former coming across more dovish and the latter neutral. The USD/JPY surged to near 154.50, reaching its best level since February. The EUR/JPY meanwhile broke to a new high for the year and is now on the verge of extending those gains to 180.00. Can it get there? Well I wouldn't bet against it. We had stronger Eurozone GDP data today which underscored the ECB's "good place" rhetoric. “From a monetary-policy point of view, we are in a good place,” President Christine Lagarde said at the ECB presser. “Is it a fixed good place? No, but we will do whatever is needed to make sure that we stay in a good place.” Key levels are shown on the chart, but the long and short of it is this: the path of least resistance remains to the upside. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
Long
by FOREX.com
Ethereum Game Plan - TDLRKZ MODELEthereum Game Plan - TDLRKZ MODEL 📊 Market Sentiment On 29/10, the FED lowered rates by 25BPS, as expected. However, Powell’s comments introduced uncertainty regarding another cut in December, stating that further policy moves depend on incoming data. Interestingly, one FED member dissented, preferring no cut this cycle — a shift from September when all members supported easing. Following the statement, rate-cut expectations dropped from 95% to 68%, prompting traders to take profits and hedge, creating a short-term bearish sentiment across markets. Despite this, the mid-to-long term outlook remains bullish, given the broader liquidity cycle and easing policy bias. 📈 Technical Analysis Ethereum is currently accumulating inside a well-defined range. Price failed to sustain above the $4950 range high and has started retracing toward the HTF bullish trendline, a potential reaction zone aligning with prior liquidity pools and confluences. If price holds around this zone, ETH could seek the range high again once momentum returns. 📘 Model in Use – Trendline Deviation with HTF LR into Key Zone (TDLRKZ Model) This model identifies setups where price deviates from HTF trendlines while interacting with liquidity zones and key structural levels. The goal is to align HTF context with LTF confirmation for high-probability trend continuation setups. Model Steps: 1️⃣ Identify the HTF trend direction and only trade in that direction. 2️⃣ Mark the HTF bullish trendline supporting price. 3️⃣ Spot HTF Key Zones likely to act as reaction areas. 4️⃣ Locate nearby liquidity pools or order concentrations. 5️⃣ Wait for confluence: when all align, confirm with a 4H market structure break for entry. 📌 Game Plan Looking for ETH to retrace into $3350 and reject from that level. If a 4H break of structure occurs and daily candle closes above $3350, this will trigger a long-biased setup. 🎯 Setup Trigger → 4H structure break after tagging $3350 → Daily close above $3350 📋 Trade Management → Entry: After confirmation above $3350 → Stop Loss: Below swing low that caused 4H break of structure → Targets: TP1: $4150 (EQ) TP2: $4550 TP3: $4950 (Range high) → Move SL to breakeven after TP1 is reached. 💬 Check my Substack for deeper macro and sentimental breakdowns — free subscriptions are open. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always DYOR before trading.
Long
by UA_CAPITAL
Markets Dynamics Every Pro Trader Should KnowMarkets move based on fundamental forces that shape pro traders behavior, capital flows, and asset valuations. I will cover the most important concepts that drive market behavior across all asset classes and are fundamental to professional traders. RISK-ON / RISK-OFF DYNAMICS The most important concept is the oscillation between risk-on and risk-off sentiment—investor willingness to take on risk in pursuit of returns. Risk-On: Equities, commodities, high-yield bonds, and risk-sensitive currencies like AUD, NZD rise. Typical triggers are: positive economic data, easy central bank policies, geopolitical stability. Risk-Off: Safe-haven assets : USD, JPY, CHF, U.S. Treasuries, gold strengthen. This happens as money managers and investors prioritize capital preservation. Typical triggers: negative economic data, geopolitical tensions, financial crises. Why USD strengthens during risk-off: USD has a global reserve currency status, and that structurally creates demand; deepest treasury market for holding capital; trillions in global debt denominated in USD. Why JPY strengthens during risk-off: Carry trade unwinding (investors close positions by buying back yen); Japanese institutions bring back home trillions in foreign assets during crises. INTEREST RATE DIFFERENTIALS Capital moves toward countries offering higher real interest rates (real rates = nominal rates minus inflation). This creates currency trends over weeks, months, and years. Higher interest rates leads to higher bond yields, increasing capital inflows, resulting in currency appreciates The Carry Trade: Borrow in low-yield currencies (JPY, CHF), invest in high-yield currencies (AUD, NZD), profit from interest rate differential. Carry trades unwind strongly during risk-off times due to leverage and crowded positioning. INFLATION EXPECTATIONS Markets trade based on where they expect inflation to be in the future, not current readings. Rising inflation expectations means central banks are likely to tighten policy, hence Bond yields rise and that may lead to currency strengthening initially. Key metrics: CPI (Consumer Price Index), PCE, core vs. headline inflation, break-even inflation from TIPS spreads. MONETARY POLICY CYCLES Central banks are the most powerful players in financial markets. They control interest rates and balance sheet operations. Tightening Cycle (hiking rates, quantitative tightening): Strengthens currency, negative for equities, bond prices fall, slows economic activity. Easing Cycle (cutting rates, QE): Weakens currency, positive for equities, bond prices rise, stimulates economic activity. GLOBAL GROWTH AND COMMODITY CYCLES Strong global growth means higher demand for energy/metals = Commodity prices rise = Strengthens commodity currencies (AUD, CAD, NOK, BRL). Key indicators to watch: Global PMIs, global trade data, commodity indices, China growth indicators. TERMS OF TRADE When a country's export prices rise more than its import prices, local income increases and currency typically strengthens. Example: Australia's AUD strengthens when iron ore and coal prices rise. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS Current account measures trade balance, income flows, and transfers. Surplus (exports > imports): This accumulates foreign reserves, and generally supports currency. Deficit (imports > exports): This requires capital inflows to fund deficit, and can pressure currency lower. FISCAL POLICY AND DEBT DYNAMICS Government spending and taxation are another dynamic that can influence economic growth and inflation. Expansionary Policy: Higher spending or lower taxes = short-term growth boost = can increase inflation = increases deficit. Contractionary Policy: Lower spending or higher taxes (this is know as “austerity”) = slows growth =reduces inflation = improves budget balance. YIELD CURVE One of the most important dynamics: it plots interest rates of government bonds across different maturities (2-year, 10-year, 30-year). Normal/Steep Curve: Growth and inflation optimism, typically supports risk-on sentiment. Flat Curve: Uncertainty about future growth, usually in late-cycle economies. Inverted Curve (short rates > long rates): Recession warning. markets expect the central bank to cut rates due to the slowing economy. The inverted curve has preceded almost every U.S. recession in the past half decade. LIQUIDITY CONDITIONS Liquidity means availability of credit in the financial system. High Liquidity: Credit is easy and cheap, supports asset prices, enhances risk appetite. Sources of ample liquidity are central bank QE, low interest rates. Tight liquidity: Credit becomes scarce and expensive, forces deleveraging, triggers risk-off sentiment. Reasons that can lead to low liquidity are central bank QT, rising rates, banking stress. BEHAVIORAL & POSITIONING DYNAMICS When too many investors are positioned the same way (crowded trade), small sentiment changes can trigger strong reversals. Extreme bullishness can signal sell opportunities when everyone is fully invested. Extreme bearishness can signal buy opportunities when selling pressure is exhausted. Key indicators to measure market positioning are: CFTC positioning data, VIX (volatility index), put/call ratios, fund flow data. REAL YIELDS Real Yield = Nominal Yield - Expected Inflation Rising Real Yields: Stronger currency (attracts foreign capital), weaker gold (higher opportunity cost), pressure on growth stocks. Falling Real Yields: Weaker currency, stronger gold, support for growth/tech equities. Real yields drive cross-asset flows through opportunity cost (risk-free alternative return), discount rate changes (affects stock valuations), and dollar funding (global capital flows). BOTTOM-LINE AND DYNAMICS INTERACTIONS Markets are driven by multiple forces simultaneously. The strongest moves occur when multiple dynamics align in the same direction. Identify the dominant theme (inflation? growth? central bank policy?), understand asset class implications, look for alignment, and monitor for shifts. Example Scenario - Fed Aggressive Tightening: Fed raises rates and begins QT → U.S. yields rise → Rising real yields → Tighter liquidity → Risk-off sentiment → USD strengthens, AUD/NZD/EM weaken, gold falls, growth stocks underperform. Success comes from identifying the dominant market theme, understanding implications across asset classes, looking for alignment when multiple dynamics point in the same direction, and monitoring for theme shifts that can reverse the entire market structure quickly. If you have questions or need any explanation don't hesitate to drop a comment.
TVC:GOLDEducation
by Trading_Stream
GBPUSD within Bearish StructureHi Traders! With price failing to swing higher I'm still seeing it's within bearish structure. The 1.35000 area looks like a strong resistance/supply zone. If price fails to break and close above it, that reinforces my bearish bias. As of now, the current bounce looks corrective- possibly a retracement toward the 1.3500 zone before sellers step in again. If price rejects near 1.35000 and continues to break below, then the next level I'd be considering would be 1.30000. In addition, DXY is sitting at a higher low zone on a higher TF. It hasn't broken its longer-term uptrend yet. The price action looks like it's attempting a base/reversal. If it holds within 98.000-98.500 and starts pushing up, that could align with GBPUSD weakness. *DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor. The ideas and trades I take on my page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. I'm just showing you guys how I trade. Remember, trading of any kind involves risk. Your investments are solely your responsibility and not mine.*
Short
by thattradergirl
1
Front run or discount prices - ETH weekly update Oct 27 - 02ndDear traders and investors, I firstly want to mention that everyone who took that last weeks trade, it is now time to close it or, if you want to take on more risk, you can hold through the next descending phase where you could get stopped out. But lets get into the analysis. As I mentioned in todays Bitcoin analysis, the macro environment is currently bullish. We have a rate cut coming in on Wednesday with a high probability and lower than expected CPI on last Friday, leading to Powell being rather dovish than hawkish but still cautious. Trump is also signaling a tariff deal with China may be coming in soon. I do think this also has to do with his ambitions to lower the rates and tariffs may impact the inflation so he avoids more uncertainty. Looking at the money flows, ETFs are receiving and inflows are looking like they are topping out right now. I think this is a typical behavior for a fifth wave, as institutionals are backing of from the market and using the late retailers as exit liquidity. Moving on to market structure, it seems to be likely that this pump on Sunday was rather a overshooting wave B, than a actual impulsive move of the third wave. There is just to much lethargic in this move. In addition to that, funding rates rose to higher-than-normal highs and there is a bunch of liquidity forming under the current price. Therefore, the odds for longs getting liquidated rise. Alternatively, this is actually the third wave. If so, Ethereum should pump further without hesitation within the next few candles. All in all, I would favor a short postion with stop loss at the high of the minor wave B or one percent above and the take profit at the 0.5 fibonacci extension level. This scenario is also in favored by Bitcoin, as I also anticipate a short-term drop. nonetheless be careful with short positions, we are in a bull market, the upside is overall in favor and shorts being liquidated is really easy right now. For people who look for a opportunity to buy in, the extension levels are all a good trade with stop loss at the low of the primary wave Y and take profit at the anticipated third wave or fifth wave high. I hope i was able to give some value, have an exceptional successful week!
BINANCE:ETHUSDShort
by Phillipklh
Bullish on USDThe USD has been showing strength lately, but the question is how much further can this bullish momentum really go? We’ve had supportive fundamentals (resilient economy, cautious Fed, geopolitical risk premium), yet at the same time, inflation data and dovish expectations for 2025 rate cuts are slowly capping that upside. Technically, DXY is approaching key resistance zones - so while the bias remains bullish for now, it’s worth asking whether this is the final leg before a broader correction. In short: still bullish, but with one foot on the brake.
by Sir_Samwell
1
Dollar Index Analysis and Macro view in shortSo, I was analyzing the Dollar Index (DXY) to understand its next direction. Initially, I had not checked the global interest rate landscape. After reviewing the interest rates of Japan, Canada, Europe, and other regions, it became clear that the United States currently has higher interest rates. This means capital is more likely to stay in the U.S. dollar, which supports continued strength in the DXY. The move was expected and aligned well with the VIX behavior. In this analysis, I used a blend of: Technical analysis Semi-fundamental insights Macro-economic context If you have a different view or a different approach to analyzing the DXY, feel free to share your thoughts in the comments. I would love to hear how you approach dollar index analysis, because understanding the DXY is one of the key components of global market insight.
TVC:DXY
by Risk_Adj_Return
$TSLA: Gravity Reasserts ItselfGreetings, traders. The NASDAQ:TSLA chart is currently painting a picture of a profound test of market physics. This isn't a "battle"; it's a conflict of impersonal forces. On one side, we have "Lift"—the powerful, almost unnatural force of a narrative focused on AI, robotics, and a limitless future. This force defies traditional valuation and pushes the price to high altitudes. On the other, we have "Gravity"—the undeniable, constant pull of fundamental reality, which just made itself known in the Q3 earnings report. The chart is our laboratory, and we are here to observe these forces at work. The Technical Landscape The Macro View: The weekly chart shows the narrative's 'Lift' failing at a critical altitude. The price has been decisively rejected from the " gravitational ceiling " of its multi-year ascending channel (approx. $480-$500). This is a level where the weight of reality has consistently proven too strong. The most recent large, bearish candle is not an attack; it is simply the pull of gravity reasserting its dominance over upward momentum. The Tactical View: The daily chart shows why this 'Lift' is failing. We saw a classic bearish MACD divergence on the final push to the highs—price floated higher, but the underlying force (momentum) was fading. The MACD has now crossed bearishly, confirming the shift. Price is now coiled in a tight daily wedge, a tactical "decision point" where we will see if 'Lift' can be re-established or if 'Gravity' will take full control. The Philosophy: A Tale of Two Forces To understand NASDAQ:TSLA $, you must understand the two opposing forces that define its physics. The 'Lift' (The Narrative Camp): The bull case is a qualitative vision. It's about Robotaxis, Optimus, and AI. This crowd is rightfully unconcerned with a single quarter's auto margins because, in their view, they are buying a different company—one that exists 10 years in the future. Their conviction is deep and provides a powerful upward force. The 'Gravity' (The Quantitative Camp): The bear case is a spreadsheet. It's about the "now." The Q3 earnings report is the catalyst for this "counter-force." EPS Miss ($0.50$ vs $0.53$) Severe margin compression from aggressive price cuts. A fundamentals-based valuation (e.g., Morningstar's $250 FVE) that is miles away from the current price. This setup is a clear piece of the puzzle. It shows what happens when the powerful force of 'Lift' (Narrative) reaches its apex and meets the immovable, constant pull of 'Gravity' (Macro Supply + Fundamental Reality). At this specific junction, 'Gravity' is in control. An Illustrative Setup We do not predict; we observe and we react. The confluence of a failing 'Lift' at a 'gravitational ceiling,' combined with the new "weight" of a fundamental catalyst, provides a high-probability, asymmetric setup. This is not about being "right"; it is about defining risk.The chart illustrates a potential short setup based on this confluence: Entry: ~ $435.00$ (Sell Short) Stop-Loss: ~ $486.00$ Target: ~$282.00$ Risk-to-Reward Ratio: ~3 The confirmation for this thesis would be a breakdown from the daily wedge (around $430), signaling that 'Gravity' has taken firm hold.The stop-loss at $486$ is the "escape velocity" point. If the price breaks above it, the 'Lift' force has overcome 'Gravity,' the thesis is invalidated, and we step aside. One cannot argue with the market's physics. Respect the level; it is your anchor to reality. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. It is for educational and informational purposes only. Please conduct your own research and manage your risk accordingly.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by TheTradingDoct0r
2
AUD CHF long:I feel the overall environment still warrants a 'risk on' trade (US/ CHINA, mega cap tech earnings). I've chosen the CHF to short, I feel in this moment, the JPY is very extended following 'hawkish FOMC comments' from chair Powell and the BOJ hold with 'relatively dovish / neutral' press conference. Arguably any of the currencies has been longable Vs the JPY, including the USD and CAD. And short JPY remains on my radar. But, for now, I've gone with AUD CHF, with a stop loss at the lower end of multiple 1hr swings. The risk to the trade is negative sentiment, particularly if there is further push-back on FED rate cuts. Or perhaps if the EUR strengthens and the CHF follows. The fact I've not particularly been keen on trading the CHF due to its recent underlying strength is also a risk. But if the mood remains positive, I think the chart 'should' return to recent highs.
Long
by johnelfedforexblog
1
ADAUSDTNothing special, after October 10, we found a "bottom" in this cycle, where it will probably move in a chaotic direction, shedding shorts and longs on its way. The yellow dotted line indicates the area where a "turn" is possible (it is possible to make some decisions, political or drastic regulatory changes or in that spirit) Red showed resistance zones in case of a possible reversal. And a break of the negative trend on TF 1D.There is also weak support, which may act as a "hope" zone with a possible slight increase and a rapid decline in price to the lows that we have already tested on October 10, and clearly rested in the support zone. But I wouldn't be surprised if we're in the near future, it will bounce back significantly below October 10th.
by LndeSistne