- BIZD looks like a descending triangle and HYG is in down channel - a bounce is possible but the long term pattern is not bullish
- BIZD leads HYG and divergence gives confirmation of pattern - BIZD currently in down channel - Longer time frame, H&S pattern in formation - bigger move if H&S pattern play out and take times for the formation
-30D correlation turns -ve for SPY/QQQ/IWM - since 2009 only 4 cases - the first sample occurred at low and market turn higher later - other 3 cases show bumpy road ahead. Pullback when HYG hit lower
U.S. financial stocks have been in pullback mode this week despite the SPX moving higher. Considering that financial stocks had been a big boost to market gains over the last several months, this could be concerning. The XLF is down about 3% - and regional banks KRE down 6% - since the recent top. Let's put this move into context, shall we? As MacroView as...
it may take weeks to develop .. just watching
Please someone explain why the 10yr note yield TNX goes down after FOMC raises interest rates? I would expect the relationship between the two to be pretty much linear.
I don't think it's bad timing to enter today. But given the low volatility and my holding period, I would like to take the risk and wait for a little longer.
The breakdown in HYG even as the DOW is making new highs suggests a divergence that can only be reconciled with a correction in the DOW. Note the extremely high volume in the down days for HYG, which serves as a confirmation on the downside. If the FED really does raise the Fed Funds Rate in December (which I think to be unlikely), we will see another steep...
There is no question that credit markets have been distorted for a long-term, but, fortunately, if you are in tune with what is going on it help get you out of the way of a steam roller. High-yielding junk debt has been a huge trade this year as investors continued to seek yield despite valuations and a clear crowed trade. The chase for performance also led...
Today we added a couple shorts, I'm posting the trades we currently have open but not providing entry/stop suggestions. Only trade them if you have a trading strategy, or, ask me if you're interested in learning more about the one we use (Tim West's 'Key Hidden Levels' and 'Time at mode'). We have some worrying bearish signals, so it's a good idea to have a...
We have an interesting pair trade here, you can take a short position in HYG, paired against a long in TLT to capture the profit from the spread closing. Right now, HYG moved too much, relative to TLT, so it's bound to correct back down, giving us a low risk trading opportunity. Position size should be enough to theoretically risk 0.5-1% of the account if price...
High yield corporate bonds are at an interesting spot, if we get a new weekly low, we can go short as described on chart. You should wait for the market to open to enter the trade, don't place pending orders before then. Good luck! Ivan Labrie,
According to the price action the 82,24 level could be a good support. The pullback shows a first leg up, AB, and a correction. A good entry in this retrace could bring to the 84 level as a possible target. I'm looking for an AB=CD pattern. The target is a resistance area too. Risk reware ratio 4,5. SL below 0,382 fib line.
www.bloomberg.com www.cnbc.com www.zerohedge.com Credit ratings of the US firms are deteriorating fast-pace. This year we will see new record in corporate defaults. We have seen this year already 32 global corporate defaults (2009 there was 42, this year we will have more than that!). This could be a turning point of this nonsense rally. Short if the neckline...
Gold prices have been volatile, flucuating between $1,275 and $1,220 as markets remain indecisive on what stance to take: is the Federal Reserve going to continue hiking assuming the economy will "gradually improve," or with traders continue to look for safer locations to place there cash? According to recent capital flow data, the GLD has seen redemption as...
CNBC has loved to refer the recent pullback in the SPX as the "Dimon Bottom" because CEO Jamie Dimon purchased roughly $26 million worth of JPM shares. However, it's not looking for those wanting to hold to believe in the recovery dream. Whether investors want to believe it or not, the U.S. economic cycle is rolling over; and, considering the very high...