Many interpreted from the latest FOMC meeting that the Fed is going to have three rate cuts this year, but Jerome Powell did not say that. Let me quote directly from his transcript: “If the economy evolves as projected, the median participant projects that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate will be 4.6 percent at the end of this year” And he...
At the latest FOMC meeting on January 31st, Jerome Powell stated, 'The Fed is not ready to start cutting,' which immediately caused the yield to pivot higher. During an recent interview on Sunday, February 4th, he reiterated that the US central bank is not yet prepared to cut interest rates, resulting in another increase in the yield. Today, we will discuss the...
During the December FOMC conference, the fed said the appropriate level for interest rate or the fed funds rate will be 4.6% at the end of 2024 from current 5.5%, 3.6% at the end of 2025, and 2.9% at the end of 2026. Many reporters take that as Fed’s hint to cut rate in 2024, but the Fed added saying these projections are not the committee decision or plan. So...
In 1930, when the Fed cut interest rates, the market crashed further. In today's tutorial, we will be comparing the 30s and today’s market to identify some of their similarities. Where exactly are interest rates’ direction pointing us? As we may have read, many analysts are forecasting that there will be a few rate cuts in 2024. Is this the best option? My work...
i) 2D = Time / Price = Chart = Technical analysis ii) 2D = Macro or / and Micro or / and other analysis 3D = Combining the above (i) & (ii) 4D = Projected time and price based on the past data and market developments 3 types of gold for trading: • COMEX Gold 0.10 per troy ounce = $10.00 • E-mini Gold 0.25 per troy ounce = $12.50 • Micro Gold 0.10 per...
Bank run crisis causes the current Fed fund rate to trade higher than the rest of the bond yields, what is its implication? As US CPI remain high, global equities will continue to be uncertain this year. Investors are now turning their attention to precious metals. Gold has started to move up since year 2000, it has appreciated more than 700%. However, the...
The 2 key reasons why gold keeps rising it is because 1) Gold is an inflation hedge asset 2) Gold is a currency hedge asset Content: • Gold is still an inflation hedge instrument • Gold is also a currency hedge instrument • How to invest & trade in Gold? CME Micro Gold Futures Minimum fluctuation 0.1 = $1 1 = $10 10 = $100 100 = $1,000 Disclaimer: • ...
There are two assets being the best hedge against inflation, they are stocks and commodities, especially the precious metals. How are they performing so far? Who is the real winner and how about if inflation persists, between stock & precious metals who will perform better in the near and further future, and why? Content: • Their performance in the last: (who...
Studies indicated Crude Oil is the best indicator to track the current inflation. It is also a leading indicator to inflation numbers? If that is true, we will have to track the crude oil prices very closely. Content: i. The most inline commodity with CPI ii. Can the Crude Oil track CPI? iii. Direction of Crude Oil Crude Oil Futures Minimum...
The Fed chairman has given the market a very important clue on 13 Dec 22. At what level will he consider an interest rate cut? He said “I wouldn't see us considering rate cuts until the committee is confident that inflation is moving down to 2% in a sustained way,” meaning only if CPI is heading nearing 2% then it is hopeful to see a rate cut. Market consensus...
Metals to Break its All Time High. I have discussed about Gold before and in this tutorial we will study into Copper. From last week Fed chairman statement, he said “it is premature to be talking about pausing our rate hike. We have a ways to go." The continuous inflation is almost a certainty into next year, and what asset or instrument works well with...
My answer is definitely a Yes! But why many say no. It is because they are looking at Gold from a very microscopic view; into its day-to-day to week-to-week movement. But if we analyse Gold from a macro perspective, we will able to appreciate Gold better, that it is still an inflationary hedge asset. And from today’s case study, we will also learn why it is time...
Content: • Why CPI could be at the beginning of a rally? • On 14 Dec 21, Fed: “Inflation is not transitory” changes everything • Strategy to counter inflation Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader,...
Where are the meat or commodity prices heading? Meat prices have been rising at a rate of about 3% per annual over the last 40 years. Meat is what I classified as an edible commodity, so is corn, wheat and rice. And as these commodities start picking up in prices, they are the one that will give the central banks a huge headache and to consider to hike its...
Discussion: 1. 2 rules to draw an uptrend line 2. Primary uptrend line 3. Secondary uptrend line 4. Time for buy Gold? Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and...