The scenarios are quite simple – A 25bps rate hike, with a dovish Dot chart could push the EUR/USD pair lower to 1.0750 levels. A 25bps rate hike, with a hawkish Dot chart (less probability) could push the EUR/USD pair to 1.05 levels. A less than 25bps hike could see a drop to 1.0750 followed by a quick fire correction. The dip could be utilised to initiate long...
Precious metals jump higher ahead of today’s FOMC minutes and potentially the first rate hike in the U.S. since 2007. Why? It’s most likely contributed to the fact that the majority of market participants believe Fed Chair Janet Yellen will remain extremely dovish post-rate increase. A dovish hike may be a hard sell , as Nomura suggests, but precious metals may...
92% of economist believe that the FED will raise interest rates along with the main stream media. They are wrong. I am right. I am always right.
The chart above shows assorted real estate stocks, they aren't cherry picked and were random (except RAIT Financial), but you can see the trend. Get the hell out of real estate. Seriously if you have any real estate or RAIT stocks it is a great time to sell. This housing market has gone nuts from the years of 0%. Rental vacancy rates are at a 30 year low and...
The Australian dollar is coming off a sizable gain against the greenback, following an employment jump of 58,600. This pushed the unemployment rate down to 5.9 percent from 6.2 percent in September. Analysts are expecting this to hinder further rate cuts near-term, while economist Stephen Koukoulas believes the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may indeed raise...
Junk bonds are typically just that - junk. But, the iShares High Yield Corporate has been one of those crowded trades that just do not die. After witnessing the immaculate short squeeze from 1,864, the SPX staged an impressive rebound. But as I mentioned earlier today (on my InvestFeed - link below), the SPY is looking weak, and the ADX, which measures trend...
The kiwi had a solid move against the dollar on Friday, gaining 1.14 percent. The move came as commodities rebounded, thus pushing up their respected commodity FX. This was a response to the weaker dollar, but commodities saw their sixth week of capital inflows as traders deem a more risk-on approach in the medium-term. The move into commodities has been the...
As many of you know today is FED day as the FOMC has its Interest rate Decision & Statement coming out today at 2pm (New York). The expectation is that there will be no changes made at this particular time so most of the “volatility” and “reaction” will be based off of the tone of the statement as trader hunt for any clues of when the rate hike may occur. This is...
The BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) are highly watched emerging markets because they represented roughly 22 percent of global GDP in 2014. However, the global economic slowdown and increased geopolitical tension has weighed heavy on these markets. Although, India may be the most resilient economy out of the BRICS. India has felt its share of...
Commodity currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD) underwent a short-squeeze following the Federal Reserve's decision to leave rates from zero-to-25 bps, which is theoretically more supportive for commodity speculation. However, after market participants digested the ultra-dovish FOMC, commodity currencies got monkey-hammered lower. AUDUSD was pushed higher to .7276 on Friday,...
Sterling has been on a monster tear after mixed employment data out of the United Kingdom. Averages earnings beat expectations of 2.6 percent, printing a 2.9 percent. However, the U.K. did see a rise in unemployment even as the unemployment rate fell a tenth-percent. Traders are looking to front from any potential talk out of the Bank of England (BoE) that...
Some say this week's FOMC decision will be of historical proportions and be the first time the Federal Reserve will increase the Fed funds rate in almost a decade. The U.S. dollar index is in a descending trend. Price action is floating above the minor trend created by the top on April 13. The dollar has not been able to see any significant support higher,...
The mood is bullish and a clear uptrend established. I am convinced that next week the FED is not going to hike rates. So Euro and Gold could going up. stay connected for more updates twitter.com
So it's been a crazy week for the stock markets around the world and everyone's trying to point the blame at something. Whatever the reason you believe don't let it justify your reasoning for entering a trade, enter only on what you see not what you hear! I can't stress this enough! So many traders are throwing money into the market trying to catch falling knives...
Running Alpha Capital Markets observes that higher rates are not always a headwind, as the not too distant record shows that the electric utilities group can outperform and offer a margin of safety. During the last period of higher rates, from mid 2004 to mid-2006, the FOMC hiked rates 16 times, and despite these incremental actions, electric utilities actually...
The dollar-yen has been rather range bound, floating between 123 and 125. The U.S. dollar is likely to remain firm heading into September, as many market participants believe the Federal Reserve will finally raise the Fed funds rate for the first time since 2006. Many traders are looking at the fact that funds rate future traders are pricing in a 54 percent...
Looks bullish here as it has been in a consolidation range ever since 1/14' and has for the most part been btw 15-18 zone. Financials have come back stronger this year and with interest rates set to be raised soon which could lead to better earnings from banks......financials are set to continue to be strong. For BAC.....it has been stuck below 18 lvls. ever since...