I'm entering a short position of 4 lots on FX:EURUSD at 1.0865. This trade setup is based on my analysis of recent price action and key support levels. If we break below 1.0827, I believe this will confirm that the top for FX:EURUSD is finally in, signaling a strong bearish trend. Trade Details: Entry: 1.0865 (Short position) Confirmation Level: 1.0827...
The NZD/JPY pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Wedge pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Sell Entry : Consider entering a short position around the current price of 96.70, positioned close to the breakout level....
Let's see how the TVC:VIX does over the next few days/weeks. Still think it eventually breaks its major support level, at least temporarily. The 2Yr and 10Yr are crashing and following yesterdays drop. TVC:TNX #interestrates, as we said, will likely be cut, even if a little. They will most likely be raised again next year. Not political... Anyway, since we...
Crude oil moved as we expected. Now in the next days we can expect it to follow the red scenario and reach the $75 area. If we see prices around $75 I'll put another update. Context is BULLISH for Crude oil and DXY is showing weakness after yesterday's FOMC meeting and the market is more confident about the rate cuts in September than last week. SO BE CAREFUL with...
When the BoJ increased interest rates in March, for the first time in 17 years, the Yen continued to weaken due to the perceived lack of commitment toward further rate hikes. In April the BoJ kept rates on hold at 0.10%, which saw the Yen react with further weakness. The BoJ is due to release its Policy Rate and Monetary Policy Statement tomorrow (Friday). With...
The DXY spiked higher from the 104.20 price level to 104.60 during the release of the FOMC interest rate decision and the press conference. The move higher has continued through the Asia session with the DXY now approaching the 105-round number level (around the 50% Fibonacci retracement level from the move yesterday) This bullish move in the DXY is likely due...
The Federal Reserve left the target for the Fed Funds Rate ECONOMICS:USINTR unchanged at 5%-5.25%, as expected, but signaled rates may go to 5.6% by Year-End if the Economy and Inflation do not Slow down more. It is the first pause in the tightening campaign following ten consecutive hikes that lifted borrowing costs by 500bps to the highest level since...
This week we have CPI and US Fed funds rate announcements. Most probably we don't get a rate cut for now (as the market expects). However, I think this week the announcements are coming out with a more dovish tone. Let's see what happens . . . If the CPI number come out lower or equal to the expectations and the Fed Chair Powell signals 1 or 2 rate cuts for...
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Highlighting the inverse relationship between the DXY (yellow line) and the BTCUSD. Potential weakness on the DXY tonight could see the BTCUSD continue its bounce from the support level of 66,000 (also formed by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the longer term) up toward the previous high of 72,000. If the price breaks above the resistance level,...
Considering the scenario that the CPI data is released higher and/or the FOMC presents a hawkish tone, this would mean that the US interest rates could stay high for longer. This would bring significant strength to the DXY which could see massive downside for the GBPUSD. However, the GBPUSD has developed a strong support along the 1.27 price level, formed by...
The EURUSD has found support along the 1.0720 price level (with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and the bullish trendline forming a confluence) If the DXY does weaken with the news tonight, the EURUSD could bounce strongly from the support level to trade higher toward the resistance level of 1.09 (moving similarly to the price action on the 9th of May) A...
USDCAD has been trading within the range of 1.3590 and 1.3780 since the start of May 2024. With the price action indicating a potential rejection of the resistance level, weakness in the DXY could see the USDCAD continue to reverse lower. A consideration as a trigger for the reversal is if the price breaks through the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level and the...
12th June (FOMC Decision Pending) DXY: Could test and reject 105.60 resistance before trading lower (dovish FOMC) down to 105 support. NZDUSD: Buy 0.6170 SL 25 TP 45 (DXY weakness) AUDUSD: Sell 0.6560 SL 20 TP 65 (DXY strength) USDJPY: Look for reaction at 158 resistance Buy 158.20 SL 40 TP 115 or Sell 157.70 SL 40 TP 115 GBPUSD: Sell 1.2750 SL 25 TP 60 (DXY...
The EUR/USD pair is poised for a potential downside move as key technical and fundamental factors align. Here's my analysis: Target Projection: With a clear break of 1.06, the EUR/USD could aim to take out the previous year's low, currently at 1.0450, and head straight for the level of 1.0377. This breakdown suggests that sellers are gaining control and may...
And there they go! The 2Yr bounced right at the support level, AGAIN It is forming lower highs though. 10Yr #yield looks a bit weaker that its counterpart. TVC:TNX In reference to the #interestrate post after the one quoted... The weekly up trend is NO LONGER BROKEN! TVC:VIX not moving much, interesting.
Euro Area Interest Rate ◻️Reduced from 4.5% to 4.25% as expected ◻️We can acknowledge the pattern & recognize its significance without jumping to any immediate conclusions ◻️Chart will need to be combined with others to make assertions, such as the 10Y/2Y Yield Spread U.S. 10Y/2Y Yield Spread with U.S. Unemployment rate The amount of months that have...
The European Central Bank raised Interest Rates by a Quarter of a percentage point Thursday, judging that Inflation remains too High ; even as data points to a deepening economic downturn in the 20 countries that use the euro. The move takes the benchmark rate in the euro area to 3.75%, the highest since October 2000.