Will US Bonds yield finally break this trendline ?? Very interesting to follow for fundamental market analysis
On Wednesday, the New Zeland central bank will speak about the next monetary policy about raising the interest rate: it's been estimated that the probability of a rate hike is 90%. From a technical point of view, NZD/USD seems to be uncertain: it plays around its 200 simple moving average but, lastly, it seems to show strong weakness. If the NZD would cross its...
US GOVERNMENT BONDS 10 YR US2Y Sincereley L.E.D 9/04/2022
US02YAlarm in the markets: a part of the US interest rate curve is inverted that has not been in 16 years US five-year bond yields rose as much as 10 basis points to touch 2.64%, outperforming those on 30-year bonds. Receive a cordial greeting, In Spain on 08/30/2022 Sincerely, L.E.D.
Volatility in gold has fallen substantially. We have been holding the broad range between 1895 and 1956, which narrowed to 1917 to 1936. Currently, we are in the middle of this latter range, stabilizing around 1925. When volatility consolidates, a breakout is near. Volatility has been consolidating for more than a week now, so a breakout should be imminent. ...
Ever since the FED has been talking about interest rates, I see questions popping up on social media where investors ask why the federal funds rate (also known as the FED interest rate) is so important for the stock and crypto markets. With this post I'd like to write an easy understandable explanation on what the FED funds rate is and why it is important. What...
In this video, I breakdown why the U.S Dollar is bullish against the Japanese Yen and maintaining its strength against the Euro, as the central bank, ' The Federal Reserve", is raising interest rates aggressively in 2022 to deal with high domestic inflation. This is in contrast to the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan, which have pledged to keep interest...
Did you guys found that BTC and GOLD have a similar trend while interest rate change since 2018? Return of BTC is just 10 times leverage of GOLD!
Follow-up chart to my previous post. Seems as if I was correct about the bottom, so if it holds here and breaks above the 53k range, I can easily see it hitting roughly 70k. Granted, other factors including the projected interest rate hikes could alter this forecast.
Gold has held the range between 1895 and 1956, that we discussed yesterday. At this time yesterday, we were roughly in the middle of the range, however since then we have started to edge up again. We are seeing notable resistance at 1956, as predicted due to the dense patch of technical levels above between 1956 and 1982. The Kovach OBV is starting to drift...
Bonds have reached a relative high at 123'01 to the tick then promptly rejected this level. A red triangle on the KRI confirmed resistance and we headed straight back down to through the 122 handle to finally find support at 121'28. We are currently seeing some support here, confirmed by a green triangle on the KRI. However the Kovach OBV has taken a steep dive...
Alarm in the markets: a part of the US interest rate curve is inverted that has not been in 16 years US five-year bond yields rose as much as 10 basis points to touch 2.64%, outperforming those on 30-year bonds. Receive a cordial greeting, In Spain on 03/30/2022. Sincerely, L.E.D.
Fed hawkish policy to fight inflation is putting in a high on GOLD. It's also about the speculation of how many hikes may happen this year. However, if FED will suddenly turns out to be less aggressive then this will quickly stabilize the gold prices, but for now, it looks like the current tone will not change so metals have room for more weakness. At the same...
The monthly chart for US 30-year mortgage rates is exploding higher at a rate not seen since the 1970s. This chart shows that monthly rates are following the 3rd standard deviation higher, which is an extremely rare rate of increase. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is shown at the bottom of this chart. The CCI is a momentum oscillator used in technical analysis...
Gold has encroached upon upper levels from its range between 1895 and 1956. We are currently facing resistance from a cluster of levels in the 1950's and 1960's. This dense patch of levels will continue until the 1970's or so. The Kovach OBV has picked up, and if we can break through all these levels we should be clear to test the 1980's, with 1982 in...
Bonds have stabilized for now after a brief relief rally. We tested higher levels at 123'15 or so, after falling 7 handles from the 129's to the 122's in less than one month. The rally was short lived, and just a technical respite into the overall bear trend, exactly as we had predicted here. The price promptly rejected this level, as anticipated, and headed...
A Catch-22 is a problem for which the only solution is denied by a circumstance inherent in the problem or by a rule. This is exactly the problem the Federal Reserve faces. Historic inflation continues to accelerate, becoming embedded into the market's expectations and risking a spiral effect In order to stop rapid inflation, and achieve its mandate of price...
Bonds keep falling as yields are rising globally. It seems that we have to redo our levels to predict yet another new low in ZN. The Kovach OBV is solidly bearish and we have fallen 7 handles, from the 129's to 122's in the month of March. We are currently testing support at 122'10, but the bear rout shows no sign of stopping. It would be unwise to try to...