Bonds have smashed through relative lows in the mid 126's to find support at 126'00 which appears to be a technical and psychological level. We have added this as a technical level on the chart. ZN has been on a clear decline falling 3 handles from the 129's to the base of the 126's. The Kovach OBV is on a steady decline, but does appear to be leveling off...
Many people consider gold as an inflation hedge, but the truth is that Gold in the present day is more of hedge against policy errors or catastrophic scenarios in broadly. It is more like insurance which could also appreciate in a scenario where real rates are falling. In case for whatever reason the financial system breaks, then gold is probably one of the best...
The dollar has hit it's target up. What does this mean for the markets? Where do we go from here? What will JPOW do with interest rates? Will the FED use the conflicts in Ukraine as an excuse NOT to raise rates 3 times? Let's talk about this.
Bonds have demonstrated some great volatility in the past 24 hours. We tested 127'08, and formed a rounding bottom before blasting off again to the 128 handle. A wick hit 128'24, another one of our levels before retreating to level off in the mid 128's around 128'11. We are right in the middle of the previous range between 127'08 and 128'24. The Kovach OBV is...
This post really is a post for my journal and study log on intermarket analysis. My Understanding Is That If Bonds Drop, Interest Rates Rise & DXY Will Rise seeking Yield (Interest Rates).
The price action of the USDJPY is currently attempting a breakout above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 115.665. Bullish pressure was bolstered earlier today following Fed Chair Jerome Powell's hint at a very likely rate hike by the end of the month . If the breakout is successful, the price action will re-test the previous swing peak at 116.300. If...
US 10-year yields are slamming back down into the 1.72 breakout zone going back to March of 2021. We're at a logical spot to bounce, but beware of a continued move lower just as the prevailing opinion is that interest rates must rise. Losing 1.70 and holding below on a closing basis would be an important change of character.
Bonds have soared as risk off sentiment prevails as the Ukraine conflict intensifies. Russian forces are bearing down on Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine and civilian casualties are mounting. ZN has blasted off from highs at 127'08, through 127'22, and well into the 128 handle. We have cleared 128'01, the first level in the 128's, and have just broken through...
Just tossing this one out there: Cathie Wood's ARKK Innovation ETF is within 1% of completing a round-trip to its pre-pandemic highs. It's also at the bottom of a fairly major parallel channel that it's been forming since February last year. In purely technical terms, it looks poised for a bounce. This is not a long-term hold, especially with Tesla as the top...
WEEKLY (W1) Looks like a corrective move which should, for the time being, be seen as a consolidation phase or pullback towards the triangle pattern breakout level ! Indeed, looking at the weekly picture, we can identify two important support levels, which are the following : S1 : 1.7960 (Tenkan-Sen) also roughly the 38.2% Fib ret (@ 1.7850 % of the last...
Gold rallied tremendously off the Ukraine conflict, hitting yearly highs at the top of the $1900 handle. It looked like we might make a run for $2K, but we topped out at 1977 or so, before a red triangle on the KRI confirmed resistance. After that, we retraced the entire move, spanning $100, where we finally found support at $1876. We were able to find support...
Bonds tested relative highs with increased risk off sentiment due to Russia's attack on the Ukraine. However, after a day of stock selloff and safehaven inflows, we quickly retraced back to support at 126'11. The Kovach OBV barely budged off the rally to 127'08, where a red triangle on the KRI confirmed resistance. It has since bottomed out, confirming support...
Gold has steadily rallied benefitting from safehaven inflows from the Ukraine crisis. We appeared to see some trouble with 1895, the last level of the 1800's, but another burst of momentum took us into the 1900 handle. From there, we were even able to make an attempt at higher levels still, but our level at 1917 proved to be a top for now. After that, we...
When a nation with a safe-haven currency uses other nations as war proxies, where do you think the money will flow?
Lots of chatter about rising interest rates and how that will affect stocks. I see no reason to guess. Let's look at the data. The chart shows inflation (orange) US interest rates (blue) and the S&P 500. Correlation between the S&P 500 and interest rates is shown at the bottom. I notice a few things: --Stocks tend to rise slightly more often than they decline...
Bonds have picked up from lows, retracing the vacuum zone back to resistance at 126'19, exactly as we had predicted yesterday. The Kovach OBV picked up very slightly, but nowhere near enough to suggest any serious buying momentum. We are seeing resistance from these levels, as anticipated, confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. It seems likely that ZN may...
Hello All, Bitcoin having hard time to follow commodities and energies because it is not consumable. Bitcoin is not an inflation hedge instrument. In an inflationary environment, people would like to hedge their wealth by investing gold. Gold became a safe haven for money and seems like a smart move to allocate a portion of gold in a portfolio in inflationary...
Hey traders, we are monitoring EURGBP for a swing buying opportunity around 0.834 zone, Once we will receive any bullish confirmation the trade will be executed. Trade safe, Joe.