I spent the weekend thinking about the housing market. Annoyingly, once a seed takes root in my mind it's going nowhere until it's fully grown. That seed started out as "What's the biggest risk for the Fed/inflation?" To my mind, it's this 👇 US WAGES, BENFITS RISE TO 2 DECADE HIGH AS INFLATION PICKS UP That's a summary of the last Employment Cost Index. You...
SPDR Series Trust Homebuilders ETF ( AMEX:XHB ) Sector: Miscellaneous (Investment Trusts/Mutual Funds) Market Capitalization: $-- Current Price: $61.34 Breakdown price: $60.00 Sell Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $61.40-$68.80 (1st) Price Target: $51.40-$49.40 (1st) Estimated Duration to Target: 107-110d (1st) Contract of Interest: $XHB 9/16/22 60p Trade price as of...
Rising interest rates by the Federal Reserve has people concerned of a potential slow-down in the housing market (worse-case scenario, a recession, or even a depression). How would this affect crypto - and metaverse assets in particular? A closer and updated look at what's been going on in virtual vs. real-estate, especially in China (still down by 60%+).
Traders, Let's take a look at the charts after this bloody day in the U.S. markets. - Stewdam.us
Eurodollar futures have declined almost a percent since the start of 2022. Refer to the product note: www.cmegroup.com And here is a link explaining this interesting development :https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/eurodollar-futures-market-betting-hawkish-fed-could-ease-rates-slightly-2024-2022-02-18/
As predicted in these reports, gold has stabilized between 1936 and 1956. We have strong support from 1936 confirmed by multiple green triangles on the KRI, and formidible resistance above at 1956, also confirmed by red triangles on the KRI. There is a dense collection of levels above, which should provide prohibitive resistance for now. The Kovach OBV has...
Bonds have taken another turn south, after flirting briefly with 119'23. With the Fed maintaining their hawkish stance, there is little to support a breakout, or a significant technical retracement. We have broken through lows at 119'01, and are currently hovering over our next target at 188'04. The Kovach OBV has been abysmally bearish for some time now, but...
Gold broke out and hit our target, only to retrace to support in the 1980's. The Kovach OBV is strong, but has curved over with the retracement. It is reasonable for gold to retrace after hitting such an important target. We are knocking at the door of the 2000 handle which is significant for gold, and it will take significant momentum for it to break through...
We look at the USD/JPY and its driver the US Interest rate market. We talk about the key Y130 level that may Upset the Bank of Japan and Ministry of Finance. Japan is historically one of the biggest FX interverners but the first step is always jawbowning (Official comments of concern about the Yen) We looking for either that or data/comments from FED members to...
I mentioned recently on twitter that I am long USDJPY. Not much to say about the dollar, other than it looks like it wants to break out to the upside. Additionally, the macroeconomic tailwinds support a bullish dollar thesis in a couple of ways: 1. The Federal Reserve has been very transparent about their intention to continue to raise interest rates through...
potential double top around 3.23% on 10 year treasury rate, coincides with resistance of multi decade down trend (yellow). on a logarithmic price chart.. or do we break out of a multi decade trend and see rates go higher? even if we did break out, could the Fed respond with YCC to stop long end rates going up, which could break the financial system..? thoughts and...
Gold has retraced slightly from highs at 1982. This was the top of a dense patch of levels that began at 1962 or so. We are on the precipice of a vacuum zone to 1999, which is our target if we can break out. However, several red triangles on the KRI have confirmed prohibitive resistance for now. The Kovach OBV is still fairly strong, however, and has not...
As anticipated, bonds faced steep resitance from 121'00 and sharply retraced. We have fallen back to 119'23, one level above lows at 119'01. The Kovach OBV ticked up slightly with the rally, but has fallen sharply at the moment. At this point it is clear that any rally is purely technical and the bear rout is still at play.
The Canadian Dollar continues to strengthen against the Japanese Yen as the Bank of Canada continues to aggressively raise Interest rates to fight off high inflation. Japan's domestic inflation is in stark contrast as Japan continues to struggle to hit the Bank of Japan's 2.00% target. I show the historical difference in interest rates on 10Year Government bonds...
Gold has picked up, continuing the rally but we are running into resistance in the 1970's. We alerted you many times that there is a dense cluster of levels between 1956 and 1982. Unless we catch some serious momentum, we are likely to retrace back to support at 1936 or so. If we do catch more momentum, our next target is 1999.
At one point, there will be a mean reversion trade here. Until then, not sure how much more this will go in opposite directions. I still believe if the dollar is strong, buying international bonds cheaper then they've been in a while might see some action. Investors will be able to limit risk and improve returns by focusing only on the countries with the most...
Gold has tested higher levels after being confined between 1917 and 1936 for the past few days. We are still holding the broader range between 1895 and 1973 or so. Gold has taken an upswing, but is facing resistance from a dense patch of levels in this price territory. The Kovach OBV has upticked with the momentum, but it is doubtful that momentum is strong...
Will US Bonds yield finally break this trendline ?? Very interesting to follow for fundamental market analysis