Gold has broken through to higher levels, punching through the resistance in the 1780's and edging toward 1795. We are starting to see some red triangles form on the KRI suggesting we are encountering some resistance here. Unless some serious momentum comes through, 1795 should provide prohibitive resistance. The Kovach OBV has tapered upwards but does not seem...
Gold has found stability in the exact range we identified: 1770 to 1775. We even discussed how it was likely to consolidate further between 1777 and the 1780's which is exactly what happened. In particular, 1777 and 1784 seem to be the lower and upper bounds respectively. Gold is likely to establish value further, but the range has narrowed significantly, and...
Stocks are edging lower in a zig zag pattern as every rally seems to get sold off. We have more risk off sentiment in the markets as Evergrande takes its turn as the center stage of fear stoking news. Evergande shares have tumbled as another debt payment deadline looms. We saw strong resistance from 4580, but rejected this, as confirmed by a red triangle on the...
Last week price action triggered, as for the US 10 years, a long black candle which in this case also broke the weekly bottom clouds support level @ 1.85. The US 30 years is currently on an ongoing downtrend channel, very close to the 50 % Fibonacci retracement @ 1.6130 (0.71-2.5160); RSI below 50 @ 34.04. Watch closely price ongoing price action and monitor...
Last week price action triggered a long black candle which broke on a weekly closis basis, both the Mid Bollinger Band and the Kijun-Sen or Base line. Such kind of price action should be seen as a negative (yield ) signal, calling for lower levels. In addition, the former uptrend support line which stated at the beginning of August @ 1.1270 has also been broken...
Bonds have consolidated as we have expected. We are seeing strong support at 130'19, and appear to be forming a flag pattern bounded by 130'07, and 131'02. The Kovach OBV is trending up slightly, suggesting a small bull bias. From here it could go either way. The Fed is discussing tightening, which would be bearish for bonds, but persistent risk off sentiment...
Based on the daily chart, the N100 stock index has grown today and the oil seems to be stabilizing preparing for growth. Both of the two assets are anti-correlating to the EURNZD pair which I explained several times in both educational articles and pair-delegated ideas. Furthermore, NZD did increase its interest rates. This would normally lead to NZD growth,...
The US dollar has stabilized, and 95.82 seems to be providing good support. We have a green triangle from the KRI confirming the support, even though yesterday, we dipped slightly lower in an attempt to crack it. Some volatility came through after that, and the rally was finally thwarted by 96.65, the final level in the 96 handle. A red triangle on the KRI...
EURNZD broke above a recent swing high in spite of NZ Bank's raising of interest rates by 0.25 points. I think there is an opportunity in the making. There might have been a lot of liquidity above the recent high. People are putting stop-orders in this area - whether the intention is to enter in the opposite direction or to exit their shorts. If it reverses now,...
Bonds have seen a bit of a relief rally as we predicted yesterday. They hit the exact target we identified, 130'00, before settling near support at 129'26. We anticipate a quiet market as we go into the US hoiday for Thanksgiving. The Kovach OBV is still solidly bearish, suggesting that this rally may be just a relief rally. That being said, we do have an...
EUR/TRY skyrocketed today after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan defended the massive and continuous interest rate cuts amid double-digit inflation. He said this is part of an “economic war of independence,” rejecting calls from investors and analysts to adopt a different strategy. Turkey's short-term external debt stock rose to $124.4 billion, an increase...
As I was updating the Interest Rates indicator, one thing that caught my eye was the negative correlation with bitcoin price. Increasing rates make "currencies" more expensive. After the increases, Bitcoin price was making great gains. Decreases in interest rates make "currencies" cheaper. After the decreases, not long after, the rally started. I don't know if...
Fed starts tapering! The long-awaited taper meeting has finally arrived! The Federal Reserve announced during their monetary policy meeting on Thursday that it will begin slowing down its net asset purchases by $15 billion per month which comprises of $10 billion Treasury bonds and $5 billion agency mortgage-backed securities. The first round of tapering will...
ZN is testing highs at 131'12. We have tested this level twice but are facing some resistance as confirmed by two red triangles on the KRI. The next level above is 131'20, and this will be the next target if we can break 131'12. The Kovach OBV is progressively getting stronger, but has currently leveled off. Bonds will likely range a bit until we see more...
Bonds have dipped but have found support at the levels we identified yesterday. ZN retraced from relative highs at 131'02 to 130'19. It has since rebounded and is currently testing 130'26. The Kovach OBV was quite strong, but has dipped with the retracement. We appear to be forming value between 130'19 and 131'02. If this is the case, then expect further...
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) concluded its monetary policy meeting on Tuesday with no change in its weekly A$4 billion bond purchases, aka quantitative easing (QE), while holding interest rate unchanged at 0.10%. What has changed during this meeting is the ending of the central bank’s yield curve control (YCC). Dropping the YCC It all began when the RBA...
With the US FED set to begin tapering and the US government continuing on its unprecedented spending spree, the US10Y is ready to rally throughout 2022. Although you should not use technicals on on macroeconomic trends, it is evident that a cup and handle is forming with the target yield at about 2.8%. This increase in interest rates could have major wide-reaching...
The recent weakness of the Japanese Yen made all pair Bullish against the Yen, the US Dollar is not exempted. After USDJPY broke the support it mitigated with the Monthly Demand zone, breaking all highs and now it is currently at the supply zone. Will price still remain bullish? Anticipating a decline in price during the Major Economic events holding in the first...