Market Structure is Bullish on the Daily TF However Market structure is bearish on the Weekly TF Not super excited to buy at these prices Looking for us to come back down to 1.257 Thats where I'd buy at least. This is Based off my DXY Bias , Where I'm anticpating a pullback from our daily resistance zone for liquidity in a trend. It is possible we continue to...
Heading into BOC rate decision tomorrow with some analysts forecasting an earlier than expected rate hike, we see USD/CAD rally up into the neckline of that head and shoulders pattern it broke through last week. Partial profits were taken on Thursday last week and now I will be adding back on to this short position. Looking deeper at the rate decision... it has...
Tomorrow we have important news for the USD. The interest rate decision together with the press-conference that comes with it are currently the most important news for pretty much all markets. They affect the USD directly and also the rest of the currency pairs. In most cases, the market participants are not trading just before or during the news, but they...
One year ago today the narrative for Bitcoin BITFINEX:BTCUSD was that the asset could be a hedge against inflation amidst the easy money policies of the Fed. A full year later with the stated inflation rate of 7%, the highest in 40 years, Bitcoin has returned over 11%... soundly beating inflation.
Bonds have gotten a lift off the selloff in stocks. An influx of risk off sentiment gave ZN a much needed lift back to the 128 handle. We had dipped in the very lows of the 127 handle, and were appearing to get ready to break into the 126's, when the fallout from stocks caused a notable risk off shift. We have broken through our level at 127'22. As predicted...
This thing is way ahead of where quarterly money flows suggest it should be - I think it will pull back and consolidate 1.10 - 1.150 range. Also looks to be exhibiting the same post-crisis recovery that it followed after the GFC. I'm pretty sure all of these anti-fed pumpers were out there barking about it back then as well. Also, Bitcoin (all cryptos) still...
A rally in crude oil triggered more concern into inflation and interest rate rises which saw a stock market selloff. In the video I look through the key levels I am watching on major Indexes, US bonds and the USD. Thanks for watching and please take some time to check out the website in my profile.
Markets Have Been Celebrating No Corporate Tax Hike Stocks have been marching higher as the risk of a near-term corporate tax hike evaporated due to hard bargaining by centrist Democrats Joe Manchin and Kristen Sinema. Prediction markets are now putting the odds of no corporate tax hike at about 88%: www.predictit.org In fact, the single largest line item in...
Bund 10Y Yields are back above zero for the first time in a couple of years. We have been viewing the bond markets as building major tops for quite some time and if we take a look at the EU 10Y yield rate, which has just breached zero, we can see that there is clear evidence that rates are now in a longer term up trend and have been for well over a year. Note...
Gold has been holding the range between 1815 and 1826 nicely. We are seeing good support and resistance from above and below, respectively, confirmed by green and red triangles on the KRI at these levels. The price action is starting to 'round off' at highs, suggesting we be losing confidence in higher levels, and might be gearing up for a retracement. If...
Bonds have edged up, but as predicted, are facing resistance at 128'24. We saw a red triangle on the KRI at this level to confirm resistance. Currently, we are seeking support at 128'10, which we also anticipated. Two green triangles on the KRI are suggesting support here. As discussed yesterday, bonds are establishing value between 128'10 and 128'24. The...
Happy New Year!! New chart for the Risktakers... Surprise, it's not crypto!! The DOW Jones has to fall eventually & that may be *very* soon! U.S. Federal Reserve's Chairman Jerome Powell speaks on Tuesday (a tell for tons of volatility), and now that employment figures are looking better (at least for now),The Fed will next complete the second task of its dual...
As you can see, the price has respected the 200sma (blue) since the break from Covid lows. Risk-reward-ratio presented is interesting as you will figure out if you are right or wrong pretty quickly; especially since the Bollinger bands have been contracting as we have consolidated. Trade setup: Target around $1000 for profit-exit. Loss-protection exit 1-2%...
For weeks we have had warnings in price action that Bitcoin was entering a bearish phase. Articles, charts, and opinions that offer CONFIRMATION BIAS that the bull trend is just "having a dip" rise to the top because people read and share what they want to hear. I am not trying to prevent people from becoming crypto millionaires. I am trying to warn people...
Hello friends, today I am showing you six charts - US Dollar (DXY), 10 Year Treasury Interest Rate, Gold, Bitcoin (BTCUSD), WTI Crude Oil and S&P 500 Index (SPX). These are some of the biggest traded assets in the world. The vertical lines on each chart represents the beginning of the month. Over the three months since September 2021, the US Federal Reserve has...
The DXY has continued to hold the range between 96.00 and 96.44, currently hovering just below our level at 96.24. We appear to be forming a bull flag pattern, but are otherwise consolidating which could suggest a breakout soon. If we break out, then we must definitively break 96.44 to consider another bull rally. There are several levels in the mid 96's to...
Bonds have stabilized at lows, and have started to form a range, as we suggested yesterday. We have started to find value just above 128'10, and below 128'24, the exact range we identified in the last report. After plummeting two full handles since the beginning of 2022 it was time for ZN to reach some sort of equilibrium before its next move. From here we...
Gold has plummeted past our support level at 1795. We saw a brief attempt yesterday morning to make a pivot off of this level into the value area between 1795 and 1815, but this was swiftly sold back, and 1795 provided little support. However, the levels in the 1780's that we identified yesterday held well and we found support just above 1784. Currently, we are...